Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 264 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,261
  • Feb 3, 2015 10:36am Feb 3, 2015 10:36am
Yea I understand what you mean... I am still having some issues with understanding everything from the first time. However I do get a better understanding as time goes on and I see the same situations over and over....
  • #5,262
  • Feb 3, 2015 1:01pm Feb 3, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Thanks for sharing your analysis with us on EUR/GBP. What you said makes sense. EUR/GBP is definetely down as per supply and demand analysis, it's a clear downtrend no matter which strategy or indicators you apply, this scenario is easy I just wanted to point out one thing on the curve. Price is reacting to a Monthly demand zone, but the curve is measured only using valleys and peaks, CPs are used only when price is trending in the direction of the CP. The Monthly demand zone is a continuaton pattern, a continuation pattern (CP) is scored...
Thank you very much!
Unfortunately it's a little bit difficult to point correct zones... I'm more or less sure about latest Monthly Supply Zone you talked about (am I right with identifying drops/bases and RBD there?). But to find correct Demand zone is not so easy. It depends I think how to draw last TL that was removed by that demand.
This is my version.
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This is latest supply:
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And demand I'm not sure about:
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  • #5,263
  • Feb 4, 2015 1:54am Feb 4, 2015 1:54am
Quoting Ivan-M
{quote} Thank you very much! Unfortunately it's a little bit difficult to point correct zones... I'm more or less sure about latest Monthly Supply Zone you talked about (am I right with identifying drops/bases and RBD there?). But to find correct Demand zone is not so easy. It depends I think how to draw last TL that was removed by that demand. This is my version. {image} This is latest supply: {image} And demand I'm not sure about: {image}
Hey Ivan,
It's just impossible to see the bases on your Monthly chart because you drew in blue and typed on top of it, so nobody can see price action underneath
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,264
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:49am Feb 4, 2015 3:49am
Quoting judgemegod
Hi, I'm kinda new at this, i really love your attitude for trading and appreciate all your effort, I feel like I can post my first top to down analysis. I didn't finish my homework, still in progress but meanwhile I love to jump into the water. I'd be glad to receive comments on analysis. {image} {image} {image}
Judgeme, how are you progressing with your gold analysis? Will you drill down to a 4h chart for an entry? Are there 4h DZ's taken out yet to your satisfaction? Just an update would be fine if my novice questions don't make sense.
Thanks for the great thread Alfonso, best thing for me is the idea of needing great patience as the markets work slowly, so must you.
  • #5,265
  • Feb 4, 2015 4:18am Feb 4, 2015 4:18am
EURNZD Position trading

Monthly is down. we can connect 2 peaks over there. price make all time low. demand absorbed, so its down.

http://s24.postimg.org/p7qr8r8it/screenshot_451.png


Weekly Down took out demand and we can connect latest 2 peaks to draw a valid trendline so weekly also down

http://s24.postimg.org/wc8khsfs5/screenshot_452.png


Daily is up, Price took out 2 valid level of supply and we can connect 2 valley to draw ascending trendline. so daily is up and out of alignment.
as per realignment theory we need daily fresh level of supply nested within weekly level of supply which is still in the trend to realign with the down trend.
( i drill down daily level 15-17 pips)

http://s24.postimg.org/mg7hi5a05/screenshot_453.png
  • #5,266
  • Feb 4, 2015 4:22am Feb 4, 2015 4:22am
Quoting totty23
{quote} Judgeme, how are you progressing with your gold analysis? Will you drill down to a 4h chart for an entry? Are there 4h DZ's taken out yet to your satisfaction? Just an update would be fine if my novice questions don't make sense. Thanks for the great thread Alfonso, best thing for me is the idea of needing great patience as the markets work slowly, so must you.
The TL is broken. I'm not chasing trades... I'm looking for shorts.
I'm novice too.
Every pro started as a novice, nothing to be ashamed of.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-04_12-20-04.png Size: 84 KB
  • #5,267
  • Feb 5, 2015 1:31am Feb 5, 2015 1:31am
Alfonso,

When is this EA completed development and posted on your website for the members of set-and-forget community?
Inserted Video
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #5,268
  • Feb 5, 2015 3:15am Feb 5, 2015 3:15am
Quoting RiverTrader
Alfonso, When is this EA completed development and posted on your website for the members of set-and-forget community? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7Jxv-Wh0pg
That's an EA for members of the community yes, it's already completed, there is even a version to that has many more good functionalities like managing breakout supply and demand trades. I didn't update the video publicly yet, it was finnished a few months ago.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,269
  • Feb 5, 2015 3:16am Feb 5, 2015 3:16am
Quoting rickyfx
EURNZD Position trading Monthly is down. we can connect 2 peaks over there. price make all time low. demand absorbed, so its down. {image} Weekly Down took out demand and we can connect latest 2 peaks to draw a valid trendline so weekly also down {image} Daily is up, Price took out 2 valid level of supply and we can connect 2 valley to draw ascending trendline. so daily is up and out of alignment. as per realignment theory we need daily fresh level of supply nested within weekly level of supply which is still in the trend to realign with the down...
Hi Ricky,

Nice analysis on EUR/NZD. Did you take any shorts at the WK supply zone in the end?
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,270
  • Feb 5, 2015 3:21am Feb 5, 2015 3:21am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Ricky, Nice analysis on EUR/NZD. Did you take any shorts at the WK supply zone in the end? Cheers, Alfonso
i set Pending order at daily fresh level.
  • #5,271
  • Feb 5, 2015 8:31am Feb 5, 2015 8:31am
AUDUSD Swing type trading

Weekly Down, we can connect 2 latest peaks and price took out some old valid demand level.
http://s24.postimg.org/o31ah4bfp/2014.jpg

Daily also down We can connect 2 latest peaks and price took out demand and making lower low

http://s24.postimg.org/3x2dvz55x/2014.jpg
H4 Descending trendline broken and took out 1 supply level but we can not draw a ascending trendline as we dont have 2 valley or 3 CP to connect so its consolidating now. As per realignment rules we need to check the higher time frame where price still trending and as daily TF still in down trend we can short from fresh H4 supply level nested in daily supply level and we also have confluence of flipzone.


http://s24.postimg.org/756v90rfp/2014.jpg
  • #5,272
  • Feb 5, 2015 9:09am Feb 5, 2015 9:09am
@alfonso

This my trade on EURAUD and AUDCAD price didnt make the level for few pips and rallied and make 1:1+ movement.
My question is should i keep this order ? as if i took the full candle for my level my entry would have triggered.

** My trade execution broker is GMT 0 but i analyze on GMT+2 broke (NY Open) so u wont see the H4 level on my chart here.

http://s24.postimg.org/q02lzfrhh/2014.jpg

http://s24.postimg.org/4roxi0d0l/2014.jpg
  • #5,273
  • Feb 5, 2015 12:57pm Feb 5, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting rickyfx
@alfonso This my trade on EURAUD and AUDCAD price didnt make the level for few pips and rallied and make 1:1+ movement. My question is should i keep this order ? as if i took the full candle for my level my entry would have triggered. ** My trade execution broker is GMT 0 but i analyze on GMT+2 broke (NY Open) so u wont see the H4 level on my chart here. {image} {image}
I also missed the H4 short on AUD/CAD H4 but a couple of pips. But WK chart is in consolidation, tricky scenario.

AUD/CAD WK chart is got a bearish consolidation, price is reacting strongly to the descending TL breakout spot, last month hights and 2 x last month lows there creating a flip zone. RIght now it's diddling in the middle, doing nothing till next Monday on this pair.

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,274
  • Feb 5, 2015 1:01pm Feb 5, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting rickyfx
AUDUSD Swing type trading Weekly Down, we can connect 2 latest peaks and price took out some old valid demand level. {image} Daily also down We can connect 2 latest peaks and price took out demand and making lower low {image} H4 Descending trendline broken and took out 1 supply level but we can not draw a ascending trendline as we dont have 2 valley or 3 CP to connect so its consolidating now. As per realignment rules we need to check the higher time frame where price still trending and as daily TF still in down trend we can short from fresh H4...
Your analysis makes sense Ricky, but look at the Weekly chart and what happened on the Daily. Price is bouncing off fresh and original weekly demand. There was a daily fakeout pin candle that couldn't close underneath last month lows (you are not using the support/resistance indicator so you can't see the red beads, see my posts, they are always there). That pin candle is informatin there might be lots of buyers there, WK fresh and original demand, I'm doing nothing on this one right now because of that.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,275
  • Feb 5, 2015 2:13pm Feb 5, 2015 2:13pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hey Ivan, It's just impossible to see the bases on your Monthly chart because you drew in blue and typed on top of it, so nobody can see price action underneath Cheers, Alfonso
Hi Alfonso, my mistake What about this new chart? Are drops & bases identified correctly?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPMonthly-3.png Size: 45 KB
  • #5,276
  • Feb 5, 2015 2:21pm Feb 5, 2015 2:21pm
Quoting rickyfx
@alfonso This my trade on EURAUD and AUDCAD price didnt make the level for few pips and rallied and make 1:1+ movement. My question is should i keep this order ? as if i took the full candle for my level my entry would have triggered. ** My trade execution broker is GMT 0 but i analyze on GMT+2 broke (NY Open) so u wont see the H4 level on my chart here. {image} {image}
Good question and I hope Alfonso will answer it. As for me I remove orders if price hits first target.
  • #5,277
  • Edited 3:21pm Feb 5, 2015 3:06pm | Edited 3:21pm
Quoting Ivan-M
{quote} Good question and I hope Alfonso will answer it. As for me I remove orders if price hits first target.
thank you, i also do that when price dont hit entry for few pips and reach 1:1 then i remove my pending order, but today i wanted to know alfonso's opinion about it.


EURGBP Monthly (my view)

point 1 is CP
point 2 there i am in doubt littlebit is it CP or RBD (It might be CP)
Point 3 i guess its a CP, price ranged and droped no LH there
if we count point 2 as RBD then yellow line should be the trendline
if we count point 2 as CP then red one should be the trendline

fact is we have the chance to draw more aggressive trendline here.

http://s24.postimg.org/6nbpt61ut/2014.jpg
  • #5,278
  • Feb 5, 2015 3:47pm Feb 5, 2015 3:47pm
Quoting Ivan-M
{quote} Hi Alfonso, my mistake What about this new chart? Are drops & bases identified correctly? {image}
Corectly identified, 1-2-3-4 is a mess, too wicky. The imbalance happens in the next candle, number 5
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,279
  • Feb 5, 2015 3:50pm Feb 5, 2015 3:50pm
Quoting rickyfx
{quote} thank you, i also do that when price dont hit entry for few pips and reach 1:1 then i remove my pending order, but today i wanted to know alfonso's opinion about it. EURGBP Monthly (my view) point 1 is CP point 2 there i am in doubt littlebit is it CP or RBD (It might be CP) Point 3 i guess its a CP, price ranged and droped no LH there if we count point 2 as RBD then yellow line should be the trendline if we count point 2 as CP then red one should be the trendline fact is we have the chance to draw more aggressive trendline here. {image}...
1 and 2 are CPs, 3 is very tricky, can also be a CP but also a peak, it's a mutant level It has to be clear, this one is not clear at all. But it does not matter if 3 is a peak or a CP, the TL will be connected in the same way.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,280
  • Feb 5, 2015 4:01pm Feb 5, 2015 4:01pm
Dear Alfonso, was it set and forget trade (AUDJPY Daily)?
Monthly up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Weekly up
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Daily down. Daily demand was fresh and original, nested in Weekly fresh demand (but not original).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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