Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

It sounds like they want it to go down ... major trend has been down as well. This is just a retrace imo. Thanks for the heads up on NZDUSD ... I wouldn't have seen it if not mentioned here in the thread.

I shorted 0.7431, but am expecting a squeeze up to .75 or so ... which may or may not happen. If it does I'll add a bit more. Just above where I shorted is some technical resistance (confluence of M pivot and W R1). My SL is above 0.76, which is the weekly R2. I've calculated its historically about a 12% chance of the H > R2 for any week, and only a 27% chance if its an up week. So overall low probability of SL getting hit for the week.

I use a wide SL and occasionally add, as its very very hard (at least for me) to pick an entry with tight (< 30 pip) SL. Hence the wider SL, but lower leverage for initial position (about 1:1).

Regards,
EZ

Looking through the news items (specifically about oil's 3 day bounce) I heard a quote in an interview that I thought was worth repeating.

"The market can remain Illogical for much longer than we can remain solvent."

Regards
NB

Looks like Oil was just a short squeeze. It's headed back down today.

C$ is also losing some of its lustre

Re-entering, EU, AU short, UCad Long.

Nailed entries. All three went right to positive.

Plan is to add second lot between 75 and 100 pips up.

The game is on!

I'm in the similar trades, but entered a bit earlier. Currently up 54 pips EU short, NZ short up 58 pips, UCad long up 94 pips from lowest position. I expect all to retest (or come close to) recent extremes of the last big move on daily charts.

Regards,

I'm going to wait till it retraces and get in after any NFP Spike, ADP came in 213k and London and Euro could trade Long on that before NFP.

Hi G,

can you please share the decisive candlestick again, like you did some days ago? It was a great analysis. I tried to spot this time alone, but from the 3 setups you said I only saw a decisive and strong movement in UCad. In my understanding of your last post, the other two trades would have been entered on a very low TF at the best price of the retracement without enough confirmation which is a suckers game :-) Not to joke, I really do not see any important confirmation from the indicators on higher TFs.

I did not enter UCad but I did enter Crude short at a very good price which is similar actually like your trade. I wish you a great trade and keep up the awesome work here,

IBO

This definitely is not good for EUR:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...rews-on-greece

Hi IBO, there really wasn't a single decisive candlestick on this trade. It was obvious the RBA and ECB wanted their currencies to fall, so I was just waiting for the shorts to be shaken out of the trades to re-enter with short term momentum in the direction of the longer term Monthly, weekly, daily down trends. The UCad was re-entered with the longer term uptrend as oil started to fall again. These entries are more just riding the waves of the market than using a specific candle formation or indicator. It would be difficult to tell anyone how to do that, like trying to tell someone how to surf the ocean's waves. One thing that anyone can do though is make sure you have a clear view of the fundamentals, mostly central bank policies, and that the longer term trends are in the direction of the trade. Longer term trends are clear on the charts. The ECB, RBA and Bank Of Canada, have all announced their intentions to weaken their currencies in statements and actions over the past week. The US Fed has stated that the strong dollar does not pose a problem and unless there is some change, it's believed their next move will be to further strengthen the dollar, though that may be delayed now due to the disinflationary effect of falling oil prices. In my mind at least, it looked clear that it was time to re-enter these trades that have paid off so well in the past. Time will tell if that's a correct decision.

Second lot short on EU. This is just what the ECB wanted. I don't think they care at all about what happens to Greece. They just want to hold the line on austerity so the rest of Southern Europe doesn't follow Greece into bankruptcy. Bailed out of AU short at -6 pips. It just wasn't going well. I might try it again later.

I have 7 positions stacked short ... looking for a nice downleg to retest lows. Overall SL's set so net gain ... zero risk trades.

EZ

Hi guys - I am new to this site (2nd day of reading) and am loving this thread, so first of all a big thanks!

I would like to ask what your thoughts are on the upcoming Non Farm Payrolls....another big number expected?

Also, anyone trading the USDJPY at the moment? Seems to me like its waiting to go pop at the moment....the attached image is from the daily charts. Normally I would expect this to favour the downside but obviously with the employment announcement looming it appears it could all be based off that number. If there was no large announcement I would be placing stop orders about 50-75 pips from where the trend lines meet, in this instance ~116.9 - ~117.9, however, there can be large swings prior to the number that trigger both orders and I end up losing.

Would love to know peoples thoughts on this.

Cheers,
Chris

Hi Hancoxch, I think most of us would be holding off on UJ for time being and only look for longs if it breaks up out of its consolidating triangle, which would coincide probably with the 5 EMA crossing above the 10 SMA on the weekly.

Well, I was stopped out of all positions for overall small gain. Nothing compared to if it sold off and tested lows, but better than losing.

Shorted again at 1.1426 first position. Will add if spike to 1.153 tomorrow, wide SL to over 1.16. Overall fundamentals point down on it ... but with so many shorts, they may get a good squeeze till it resumes long term downtrend.

EZ

We are still in downside risk with EU until it breaks 1.185 . Up there plenty of room to retrace. We'll also be able to evaluate the dollar's strenght seeing how much to that point we can get near. Fed is still likely to raise IR in June meeting but we can't be sure.
Overall Risk on still in place. TRY RUB and so on still loosing after gaining a little Yesterday. Yen still in place also, it might go down to 127 ag EU before going up again. I think in 12 month/18 we're going to be somewhere near 150.
Of course i have not the Crystal ball and i will be just using these informations as a little bias to increase my odds and choose the right side. I suggest to be flat on the JPY until the overall uptrend resumes and we can all carry it.

Interesting to note that China has loosened capital requirements for chinese banks, a sort of dovish move. RBA has cut IR bringing with itself also NZD currency. (both CBs still say their ccy are overvalued)

On my side i'm riding on GBP/AUD long with 2 lots, waiting for the third to be placed.

Seeing CBs stenght i would say

Strong USD GBP(in middle point between strong and flat)
FLAT CHF CNY
WEAK JPY AUD NZD

Good trading everyone, and please comment my analysis. Just to discuss it from different point of views.

Hi lemming78,

I liked your analysis a lot, so I only comment on the one point I argue (no reason to discuss points where we have the same opinion).

It is the NZD. I also talked about that with Grav earlier. Of course I see how charts move but I still separate it from AUD and CAD. I do not see any problem in their economic performance, they reached their all time high in the employment report participation rate and also did not cut rates. I more believe that other comdolls pull them down and not their own performance.

Another interesting story is the strong GBP. As they gain, I agree with your analysis totally, it is another question that I do not really understand the drivers behind it. They postponed IR hikes, many reports were bad (except this week) and the EU most also have an overall negative affect on them. So this bullish movement is more than interesting for me to see.

Well, I guess there is a reason why they say: "Trade what you see and not what you want to see."

IBO

Hi IBreakOut,

I think the reason behind the strong GBP (and EUR) last night was based off the US trade deficit for December, it was $8.6bln more than the market anticipated. The knock-on effect of this implies a revision to the annualised Q4 GDP figure of about -0.4%, taking it from 2.6% to 2.2%, which is not as rosy a picture as most people have thought on the US economy......perhaps this will be confirmed in Q1 2015 growth readings. Obviously a bad job report tonight (especially if wages aren't increasing) will add fuel to that fire!

Cheers

Yes. NFP's tomorrow will hopefully shed more light. My thoughts are these.

Eur is finding some respite with QE in the mix and priced in. specualtion about it and pressure on the currency seem to have reduced, while the Dollar is a little stalled on soft data, the lack of strength in pay rate and growing opinion amongtraders towards the first rate hake being later than previously anticipated. neither of these upset the prevailing trends IMO but give rise to a pause and possible shake-out.

Canada is entirely at the mercy of oil right now, the price of which has IMO 'normalised' looking historically rather than collapsed. I thought for a long time it was artificially high and controlled up there by the cartel OPEC. the non-opec production and developement of new methods of oil extraction have increased supply beyond Opec's ability to control that so they are now flooding the market to shake out over capacity elsewhere by making it less viable economically... (all this is IMO). I think this will in time tighten up again. But we seem to be a long way from the 'Peak Oil' scares that took prices up.

Japan called halt to the latest Yen fall around the end of november saying it had gone far enough and I'm sure they will be back when they can more economically resume. also they have another round of QE in place now so that is no longer open to speculation. watching that situation carefully and waiting.

Australia recently cut rates and may do more, while New Zealand is IMO actually quite strong. I don't get RBNZ's take on the currency. I think they are trying to talk it down in the face of fundamentals that say the opposite. If I had to back a side in the battle of ECB vs. RBNZ I think I would go with the sheer weight of size ECB can weild. (specifically mentioned in the most recent speech).

UK has me baffled. I think it 'should' be stronger but Europe is dragging it down. Even BOE seems to spend more time talking about euro-zone than UK.

Switzerland is not yet back on my radar - they got ditched when they pegged and I'm not ready to wade in there yet.

That's my ten penworth.

Good analysis nbfx! I think the USD long trade was very crowded (looking at COT report), it was recently near extreme levels. A USD long shakeout was definitely in order and is underway ... the question is how far will it fall before the USD uptrend resumes. EU has big resis around 1.16 ish, so we'll see how it reacts if it gets up there. IMO, the USD will continue up over the long term, and EUR down. I don't think anything has fundamentally changed.

Regards,
EZ