Attachments: Price is everything

Price is everything

#29,561
Feb 3, 2015 2:45am Feb 3, 2015 2:45am

NaughtyPip
Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,282 Posts

Anyone see anything? Short term or long term?

#29,562
Feb 3, 2015 3:09am Feb 3, 2015 3:09am

bangster
| Joined May 2011 | Status: Trader | 132 Posts

Quoting NaughtyPip

Disliked

Anyone see anything? Short term or long term?

Ignored

Not much... However, NZD/CAD has a decent zone around 0.9123 - 0.9101, check 1hr chart (can't upload pics at work)

#29,563
Feb 3, 2015 4:16am Feb 3, 2015 4:16am

MCFly
Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,364 Posts

Quoting bigwal

Disliked

{quote} mmb91, Sorry for the delay, always things to do ! Promise is a promise though. {image} Learn who is moving the market, how and why? There is no hocus pocus or special systems with fancy indicators. I would go as far to say, that anyone using indicators or such like with success, has learnt how to read price action. With enough time you can feel the ebb and flow of the market. As RED use to say, they can not hide their intentions. Good night all, i am shattered. Warren

Ignored

Nice post. I think it was IF who introduced the DPs to S&D trading. Can't remember that Red or KennyZ used this lingo or methodology when they where active at FF.
Honestly finding DPs is very subjective like every other thing in trading too. There are DPs with no end and only experience can teach you to find the important ones. It's similar like finding viable S&D zones. So when you are skilled enough to trade DPs you should also be able to trade S&D zones succesful. When you are looking for an engulf of a DP then your entry is late. Now the question is why waiting for an engulf of a DP when you could enter earlier with a touch trade at a nice S&D zone. Your R:R would be better. By no means this is meant to criticize your trading style but would be interessting to know why you don't trade the "classical S&D+PA" method.

#29,564
Feb 3, 2015 6:59am Feb 3, 2015 6:59am

bigwal
| Commercial User | Joined Sep 2008 | 580 Posts

MCFly,

Thank you for your post, you raise some good questions.

I have spent some time with IF on his forum and i have the utmost respect for his attention to detail and integrity. IF coined the term "flag limit" which is a decision point in itself or some call it a marker left by the IT's. I did not want to use that term, as decision point is clear with the meaning and people can relate to it with some simplicity.

An engulf stems from RED, he has sung it from the roof tops. There are two different types of engulf. 1. where price exceeds a previous extreme high (swing) 2. Where price engulfs a decision point. In IF's case a flag. There are thousands of examples all over the charts, but where they visually may look different they are still achieving the goal "Engulf"

What is the purpose of an engulf (in simple terms). It clears orders from a previous decision point and shows the intentions that the market will turn. Price then Achieves a number of objectives for the market movers.

1. Price finds fresh s or d at a wholesale price

2. fools other traders into direction , allowing market makers to take the opposite position.

3. last decision point or extreme was taken out so price can travel to next fresh s or d.

Supply & Demand is a natural force in all free markets, it should be part of the basics learnt by all traders. It is only part of the picture, what do you call strong vs weak supply or demand. There are other factors to take into account.

I trade a number of different set ups, engulf is by far the easiest. Call engulfing pattern a form of confirmation. Let the market movers show their hand. Not all s&d is equal. Another set up is engulf then fake out, head & shoulders or Quasimodo coined by "no brainer trades" here on FF. Touch trades are subjective, unless prior price action has prevailed.

The market moves in many ways, most we see repeat over and over.

I did not post here to take away any of the hard work IF,Red,Kenny and others have done. But just wanted to share how my trading has developed when you understand what forces are at work in the market.

Warren

I need to finish something i started

#29,565
Feb 3, 2015 8:24am Feb 3, 2015 8:24am

Winston Reed
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts

Quoting sknight1

Disliked

{quote} If you can do this, why are you not trading larger position sizes ????

Ignored

I didn't anticipate this large move but I was in the right place at the right time. I trade larger positions from my this or swim platform with TD Ameritrade, a more complicated platform but superior to MT4 IMHO.

#29,566
Feb 3, 2015 8:59am Feb 3, 2015 8:59am

jsr
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 448 Posts

Quoting MCFly

Disliked

When you are looking for an engulf of a DP then your entry is late. Now the question is why waiting for an engulf of a DP when you could enter earlier with a touch trade at a nice S&D zone. Your R:R would be better. By no means this is meant to criticize your trading style but would be interessting to know why you don't trade the "classical S&D+PA" method.

Ignored

I'd like to know the reasoning behind your statements.

1. Why would it be a late entry?
2. Why would it be a better R:R?

To be fair, let me state what I think.

If someone has a 75% or higher rate of success TTing SD Zones. Well. That's Ok. It denotes a degree of expertise.

If his win to lose ratio is close to 1:1 then that's gambling. It denotes that filtering SD Zones is a problem.

That's the reason for letting the market show its intentions. You don't need to pick the ultimate top or bottom, but you can pick the retest of it with a lower risk, if you are willling to miss some trades.

Waiting for an engulf, and then for a good entry point, enables you to use smaller SL. So you don't need a big move to achieve a good R:R.

So, when trading SD levels become a hit or miss, it's better to avoid TTs. But, again, if you can identify them, that's fine. Every one sees the market through his/her own eyes. You can't tell what I am seeing unless I tell you, and I can't tell what you are seeing unless you tell me. Simply put, it is just a matter of which are the details we are aware of.

#29,567
Feb 3, 2015 11:07am Feb 3, 2015 11:07am

MCFly
Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,364 Posts

Quoting jsr

Disliked

{quote} I'd like to know the reasoning behind your statements. 1. Why would it be a late entry? 2. Why would it be a better R:R? To be fair, let me state what I think. If someone has a 75% or higher rate of success TTing SD Zones. Well. That's Ok. It denotes a degree of expertise. If his win to lose ratio is close to 1:1 then that's gambling. It denotes that filtering SD Zones is a problem. That's the reason for letting the market show its intentions. You don't need to pick the ultimate top or bottom, but you can pick the retest of it with a lower...

Ignored

Hi jsr,
let me guess you are trading or practicing the "IF method" (sry when it's wrong to call it like that). So I bet you will have noticed that IF and some of the other skilled traders at his forum are TT too. But instead of TT the classic S&D zones they TT FLs, FTRs or DPs. There is a reason why they TT these zones. Like Warren wrote the institutions left their footprints there and this is where the orders are lying.

"1. Why would it be a late entry? 2. Why would it be a better R:R?"
I have attached a ss to show it

" If his win to lose ratio is close to 1:1 then that's gambling."
This is wrong! Don't mix win lose ratio and risk reward ratio. When a trader has a w:l ratio equal 1:1 and a r:r of 2:1 then he's fine. That's all a trader ever needs.

"That's the reason for letting the market show its intentions."
Often the market showes it's intention before. You can see it where and how the S&D zone was created and how price left the zone and how price revisits the zone. There is so much which can help you to judge like correlated pairs and markets, multi TFs, S&R, PA...

For sure nobody says it's always a good idea to take a TT and often a trader better waits to get some additional confirmation like engulfings or at least some sign of rejection in a zone. It always depends on the individual situation.

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#29,568
Feb 3, 2015 12:31pm Feb 3, 2015 12:31pm

bigwal
| Commercial User | Joined Sep 2008 | 580 Posts

MCFly,

Can i chip in?

There are places you can touch trade eg: first touch back to FTR after an engulf. Yes i have spent time with IF, PIE and various other places.

As far as IT's leaving foot prints and orders being left at zones. Not sure how i feel about parked (PO)

But what i am sure of is the way price moves just before the action happens. Market movers show their hand and this is what we pick up.

2:1 is just not worth it, you can look closer on 1 minute chart, yes movement gives the same clues. My entry without looking at 1 min would be 1.50665.

Of course the place to exit is when you see an engulf high, hit exit when we return to the demand.

There are a large number and growing of s&d traders starting websites, forums and blogs. They have their fancy names and slight tweak on how their s&d system is different.

But it all boils down to the game that the market movers play. We can see their game, they can not hide. The intention is to confuse you, period.

In the earlier days i use to watch for hours, no orders in the market. Just watch the turning points, what happened before during and after. With no trade i have no agenda. I could look at the market subjectively.

Warren

I need to finish something i started

#29,569
Feb 3, 2015 12:33pm Feb 3, 2015 12:33pm

bigwal
| Commercial User | Joined Sep 2008 | 580 Posts

Sorry chaps, i am out for the evening, then in Europe for the rest of the week.

Catch you all soon

Warren

I need to finish something i started

#29,570
Feb 3, 2015 12:52pm Feb 3, 2015 12:52pm

jsr
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 448 Posts

Quoting MCFly

Disliked

Hi jsr, let me guess you are trading or practicing the "IF method" (sry when it's wrong to call it like that). So I bet you will have noticed that IF and some of the other skilled traders at his forum are TT too. But instead of TT the classic S&D zones they TT FLs, FTRs or DPs. There is a reason why they TT these zones. Like Warren wrote the institutions left their footprints there and this is where the orders are lying. "1. Why would it be a late entry? 2. Why would it be a better R:R?" I have attached a ss to show it " If his win to lose ratio is close to 1:1 then that's gambling." This is wrong! Don't mix win lose ratio and risk reward ratio. When a trader has a w:l ratio equal 1:1 and a r:r of 2:1 then he's fine. That's all a trader ever needs. "That's the reason for letting the market show its intentions." Often the market showes it's intention before. You can see it where and how the S&D zone was created and how price left the zone and how price revisits the zone. There is so much which can help you to judge like correlated pairs and markets, multi TFs, S&R, PA... For sure nobody says it's always a good idea to take a TT and often a trader better waits to get some additional confirmation like engulfings or at least some sign of rejection in a zone. It always depends on the individual situation.

Ignored

MCFly:

Thanks for your response.

I know that with a good R:R an account will grow even if 50% of trades are losers. My point is that if someone loses as many trades as he wins, and still makes money, then it is obvious that there is an statistical edge because of the R:R ratio, but it's also obvious that from a knowledge standpoint, something is missing.

At the end, it is the same approach, perhaps with another TF in mind. After all, at least in my case, I use limit orders, and thinking in terms of fractals, it is a TT after seeing a reason to trade.

#29,571
Feb 3, 2015 1:16pm Feb 3, 2015 1:16pm

sknight1
| Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,228 Posts

Quoting Winston Reed

Disliked

{quote} I didn't anticipate this large move but I was in the right place at the right time. I trade larger positions from my this or swim platform with TD Ameritrade, a more complicated platform but superior to MT4 IMHO.

Ignored

That's great to hear. I have a TOS demo account so, I am familiar with that one too.

#29,572
Feb 3, 2015 3:32pm Feb 3, 2015 3:32pm

MCFly
Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,364 Posts

Quoting bigwal

Disliked

2:1 is just not worth it, you can look closer on 1 minute chart, yes movement gives the same clues. Warren

Ignored

Yes 2:1 was only one example. 2:1 should be the lowest R:R to target for.

It's really interessting how many different approaches there are. Probably everybody must find their own way to trade S&D which fits the most.

btw. I'm also the rest of the week in europe

#29,573
Feb 3, 2015 3:49pm Feb 3, 2015 3:49pm

Winston Reed
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts

Quoting MCFly

Disliked

{quote} Yes 2:1 was only one example. 2:1 should be the lowest R:R to target for. It's really interessting how many different approaches there are. Probably everybody must find their own way to trade S&D which fits the most. btw. I'm also the rest of the week in europe

Ignored

Interestingly enough I don't consider R:R in my trading. Oh well

But I do take profit off early and let some ride.

#29,574
Feb 3, 2015 8:14pm Feb 3, 2015 8:14pm

Winston Reed
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts

A little Asian session action.

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#29,575
Feb 3, 2015 8:21pm Feb 3, 2015 8:21pm

Rufus
Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Illegitimi non carborundum | 3,526 Posts

Quoting Winston Reed

Disliked

{quote} Interestingly enough I don't consider R:R in my trading. Oh well But I do take profit off early and let some ride.

Ignored

I'm with you on that one. I am gunning for 2:1 or more. But if the big money is being stingy I will take 1;1 OR LESS. Always acting in my own best interest. Red will often take 2/3 off at 1:1 Let rest run.

But as was said earlier, we eachg find our own path to trade S/D. .

Red and I were even talking about how the big money guys are adapting their trading style to hinder the over abundance of s/d traders. We need to adjust as well.

Rufus

Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.

#29,576
Feb 3, 2015 8:22pm Feb 3, 2015 8:22pm

Winston Reed
Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Hobby Trader | 4,477 Posts

There was some mention of touch trading earlier which I tend to avoid. Some would like to be able to know that a certain zone is worthy of a "touch-trade" and that some are able to do this. I would say to those that few really are able to do so. Posting a trade now and then with a perfect "touch trade" does not qualify. Even Red often waited for an engulfing pattern before entering his trades.

Red posted his trades in rapid succession unlike anyone else and I mean anyone else. So don't get caught up in so called "touch-trading". Confirmation doesn't mean you are a wimp. Winning trades is all there is.

Any way. Half off

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