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Are there any successful Traders in Forex Factory?

  • #101
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:14pm Feb 1, 2015 3:14pm
so 14.2% of the loss is due to commissions

that means that for a commission/spread of about 2pip the loss is on average 14pips


so you have a bunch of perma looser that loose on average 14 pips
why not gather them in a website and trade the opposite.

anyway i strongly believe that the majority of loss is by slowly bleeding your account
so the option 2) of random market is certainly wrong

so the market is not random and the price manipulate the people to make them loose (buy high/sell low)
any guy that stare at the screen sufficiently can attest of this nasty behavior
  • #102
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:16pm Feb 1, 2015 3:16pm
Quoting felixis
2) the loss is due to over leverage and because the possibility of loss is limited by the size of the account the blow up is inevitable and the market is random
How can the market be random? The random walk theory is absurd and I have no idea how it persists. The market is organic, because humans make decisions based on perceived value in the market and these factors, and the actors, are in a perpetual flux (this is why exacting models often fail). But prices moving between highs and lows is not random, it is perceived value. You don't go to the station and fill up your car and see that sometimes the price is $900 and sometimes $0.23 because the oil market is 'random'.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett
  • #103
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:22pm Feb 1, 2015 3:22pm
secondly as the herd behavior is concentrated in a certain area (think the bell curve)
the majority always loose in the market
the guy that think different has a high probability of winning doing the counter gut feeling.

if you want to win trade the opposite of your fear/greed/impatience all of the sins cultivated by impulsive behavior encouraged by this society
  • #104
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:36pm Feb 1, 2015 3:36pm
Ofc majority of retail looses and are nothing but liquidity providers to the system. Just a lil theory regarding information spreading. It is very rational view majority looses, because they act on simplified twisted informations and base their decisions on it. Bastards are really here and after you, is no joke. All medias are controlled by poeple with power and they go after thir own targets, not yours. Banks have teams of analysts to work on same decision you do using excel and few indicators. Not even counting insider info here. So, ofc retailers are in huge disadvantage right at start. But all of these is actually proof against theory of random markets. Bastards decions are not random, they are run by greed. It is not random, it is just different form of life created by many and many minds. And you can understand it.

Qoute Tom:
"There may be many levels of consciousness and what seems to be insane, may be just a beast we dont understand or different form of life. Beast which can eat you within a second, but which you can mount and ride."

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
..when social enviroment wants to adress more followers - read - to get more people into the system, it has to be simplified. The reason is information spreading in the system and the noise it creates. When information is released into the system, each unit accepting it changes it a bit before sending it further. There come rating agencies and such stuff. It has to be simplified in order to work for so many people (anyone can trade market he´s never heard of leveraged 1:100). Once it is simplified, it is much more easy to abuse the system. The more...
But to contribute to thread with someting else than philosophy: Think when it comes to long term success most important is to deal with mental pressure of lossess. The bigger account, the bigger pressure. I am long term succesfull with smaller accounts and overall account percentage am winning. But as a man, am loosing, as have facked up a bit while managing more cash as it was heavy mental pressure and I was making bad decisions when I have been loosing. Was just a few percents, but the size of account mattered in absolute terms. So, keep it calm and tight guys and its gonna be ok .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #105
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:41pm Feb 1, 2015 3:41pm
as i see many trade explorer on ff that bleed their account slowly by surely. (oh my if you could only press the opposite button when you make a trade you would be rich already) this proove the option 1) market non random

the study was made on 15000 clients. so if they trade randomly or if the market is randopm the only loss must be due to the commission because on average the retailers random is nor right nor wrong. the expectancy of gain is zero.

this is not the case so the basic behavior of people make them loose money.

remember when you trade and see the price goes against you. bah keep the position and hope it goes back.
bad luck it keeps going against you
then panic mode / herd like / center of the bell curve behavior kicks in and you end up closing your position always at a major top or bottom against you.

so even without TA or fundamental analysis the natural behavior / risk aversion / not want to loose in the short term is a sure way to kill your account
  • #106
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:45pm Feb 1, 2015 3:45pm
so you ask is there winners there and give me your strategy


you should ask the permaloosers what did they do to loose.
what state of mind.
what money management.

and do the opposite
  • #107
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:49pm Feb 1, 2015 3:49pm
Quoting felixis
...... impulsive behavior encouraged by this society
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett
  • #108
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:52pm Feb 1, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting felixis
so even without TA or fundamental analysis the natural behavior / risk aversion / not want to loose in the short term is a sure way to kill your account
Yes, herd behaviour is certainly helping retailers to loose, so does leverage and so do spreads. Bastards know what they r doing.

Think it is called limbic part of brain which is associated with this (am not biologist so pls no offence if some reads it and am not precise). When you are under danger, primary instincts take place. Is the reason why you can jump out of street so you wont get hit by car, but also reason why you are scared when your overleveraged trade goes against you so you automatically cover. Nothing you can do about it, but to slowly train your primary instincts to be all the time under controll. Easier said than done.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #109
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:54pm Feb 1, 2015 3:54pm
the market will punish the basic behavior of human

it will punish your natural way of handling the loss (dont want to loose - then dont close)
it will punish your natural way of handling the gain (scare the market goes against me - better close for small gains than enduring this washing machine)

you can't stand the volatility of the position when you have a gain and close small
this is guaranted to make you loose in the long term

you dont want to close a losing position you will get hammered because usually the more you believe it goes down the more you are at a major bottom that will suck up your account

you've decided to hedge
ridiculous its equivalent to closing with a loss (usually big) 1 - 1 = 0.0

you've decided to trade ultra small and average down (grid trading)
certain death, the market has deeper pocket than you. the opposite trend is not your friend

you try to pick top or bottom because you fear too late to go with the trend
you are dead even before you begin
  • #110
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:00pm Feb 1, 2015 4:00pm
the market like to hypnotise you. first let setup the trap. then you commit to a trade

now, the price can work on you

you stare and stare at the chart. the price got you. then somtehing goes wrong and

the basic panic mode kicks in

its what the market want. in panic mode in full uncertainty with no plan to go out you are already dead

you stare and stare, then you forget the higher time frame, made a buy unfortunately at a major resistance
you are already dead
  • #111
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:08pm Feb 1, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yes, herd behaviour is certainly helping retailers to loose, so does leverage and so do spreads. Bastards know what they r doing. Think it is called limbic part of brain which is associated with this (am not biologist so pls no offence if some reads it and am not precise). When you are under danger, primary instincts take place. Is the reason why you can jump out of street so you wont get hit by car, but also reason why you are scared when your overleveraged trade goes against you so you automatically cover. Nothing you can do about it,...
Retraining primary instincts can be done, but it's a tall order. I get around psychological issues by making my approach less discretionary. Rather than waiting on some intuition, gut feeling bullshit or divine providence (which is not really a reliable way to make a living), my decision making is a response to a prepared plan. Then my unreliable brain only needs to look for trends and research reasons for trends before seeing if they happen. Aside from direction, all of my opinions are irrelevant to the way I trade.

I have three job titles - Risk Manager, Trader, Chief in Charge of Bullshit. The Risk Manager's opinion outranks everyone, so if Trader wants to do some stupid trade and the Risk Manager says 'no', it doesn't happen. Both of them outrank the last guy. We've been trying to fire that guy for years but he just won't leave, so we keep him busy on Internet forums.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett
  • #112
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:08pm Feb 1, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting connect_ananth
Wow . Dear tyler , you have shown remarkable patience and resilience by Demoing for 7 years !!! Wishes for your success! {quote}
thanks m8, you too.
i lose money for a living
  • #113
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:11pm Feb 1, 2015 4:11pm
usually the looser dont have a plan or have very weak hand.

dont worry the price will take care of you and shake you up with a loss.

usually the guy will buy because he cant stand not to buy. say when price goes crazy fast up. (am i missing a once in a lifetime opportunity ???)
and with a loss he close because he cant stand no more the pain. for him, the expectancy in his mind is i am dead , the price WILL go more against me.
you are convinced; that means the price did its job and you are probably at a major top or bottom against you

price is the biggest advertising.
his movement attract traders like fly on the lamp.

when you are 100% sure of a direction in panic mode
you are 100% sure to loose.
  • #114
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:16pm Feb 1, 2015 4:16pm
what is a newbie behavior:

- always try to trade counter the actual trend, because he fear to buy at the top.

- always cut the gain fast, i got a gain at last so better take it

- always never close a losing position, the market for sure will go back (hope so)

- never handle the market volatility because there is no plan, so the weak hand

- in panic mode trade more and more often, so death will come faster
  • #115
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:18pm Feb 1, 2015 4:18pm
Quoting Spili
I have three job titles - Risk Manager, Trader, Chief in Charge of Bullshit. The Risk Manager's opinion outranks everyone, so if Trader wants to do some stupid trade and the Risk Manager says 'no', it doesn't happen. Both of them outrank the last guy. We've been trying to fire that guy for years but he just won't leave, so we keep him busy on Internet forums.
Nice post, had a good laugh . Am myself suffering heavy personal split .

You are right trading plan and risk management on first place are key issues to manage primary instincts. But for me is a bit hard as main driver of my life is chaos, so although I have super duper trading plan, there are guts involved. But is just my philosophy one has to believe in his guts and train em. Guts cant stand pressure of high leverage if not trained enough. Because of this, I have decided, merely for fun of it, to dedicate 1K USD just to my balls to test it. Am gonna make trade explorer out of it so you guys can have some fun. Whenever I feel urgent need to hit the button coz I feel this time I finally got it, am gonna use guts account, to explore impact of my balls on trading plan.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #116
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:21pm Feb 1, 2015 4:21pm
usually after the newbie phase

is the phase where you dont want to loose any penny any time anymore in the market

because you know, you've got so severely burnt before.

so grid trading / small position still never close a losing position
  • #117
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:25pm Feb 1, 2015 4:25pm
usually the market takes always more time to reverse than you think

so trying to call the top or bottom is rather useless
beside at the zone of top or bottom there is a lot of shakeup

its the looser than entered already and get killed.

you'd better decide now to trade in the direction of the trend. you will live longer.
you dont have to enter at the top or bottom to make money
  • #118
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:30pm Feb 1, 2015 4:30pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Nice post, had a good laugh . Am myself suffering heavy personal split . You are right trading plan and risk management on first place are key issues to manage primary instincts. But for me is a bit hard as main driver of my life is chaos, so although I have super duper trading plan, there are guts involved. But is just my philosophy one has to believe in his guts and train em. Guts cant stand pressure of high leverage if not trained enough. Because of this, I have decided, merely for fun of it, to dedicate 1K USD just to my balls to...
Well I wish your balls the best of luck. I'm a serial pussy. I will put my little pussy trade on and leave it with break even risk, if it works out ok and survives, I put another little pussy trade on, then another. My frequent pussyishness gives the overall impression of being in possession of large man glands whilst I secretly keep my vaginal shenanigans out of the limelight. Win - win!
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett
  • #119
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:32pm Feb 1, 2015 4:32pm
Go to etoro.com and look up a guy called bansino28. He wont talk to you, but if you look at his stats you may be surprised!...
  • #120
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:35pm Feb 1, 2015 4:35pm
Quoting Spili
{quote} Well I wish your balls the best of luck. I'm a serial pussy. I will put my little pussy trade on and leave it with break even risk, if it works out ok and survives, I put another little pussy trade on, then another. My frequent pussyishness gives the overall impression of being in possession of large man glands whilst I secretly keep my vaginal shenanigans out of the limelight. Win - win!
, Hey, thats my tradingplan to be all the time BE! Speaking of which, think good while entering to split position into 3 little, and ideally take one of those @ RR 1:2, coz then you have only 2 partial SL left on nice place below support while aready BE.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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