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  • #6,981
  • Jan 30, 2015 3:07pm Jan 30, 2015 3:07pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} closed at 1995.24
The DOW is slightly behind, it closed 17166, i'm looking at 17091 to break for it to confirm its bear too, maybe next week, will wait and see
  • #6,982
  • Jan 30, 2015 3:08pm Jan 30, 2015 3:08pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} with AAPL dipping under $117 the trade has gone from +$340 to >+$600
AAPL finished right around $117.00 and the $116/$117 finished up >$650. I bailed on it for a $180 loss an hour earlier. My experiment on trading diagonals around earnings cost me $130, but I learned some things....

I saw AAPL slipping and I had an order to close in there that I was gonna take off to wait a bit, but too late, it had been hit. Patience is a virtue but hard to exercise when you see your trade coming up out of a deep hole.

If I had played AAPL a little further out, $118/$119, I would have got in cheaper and I never would have been in more than a very small loss, would have finished in nice profit. Oh well, there will be other hunts...

Have a good weekend, all...Go Hawks!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,983
  • Jan 30, 2015 3:25pm Jan 30, 2015 3:25pm
Quoting The Fool
If I had played AAPL a little further out, $118/$119, I would have got in cheaper and I never would have been in more than a very small loss, would have finished in nice profit.
give yourself more room than you think you may need - you're walled off on one end, don't skimp on the other. $118/$119 finished around $750 gain, was in profit out past $120 - never in loss. 20/20 hindsight, sure,,,,but give yourself more room next time.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,984
  • Edited 9:04pm Jan 30, 2015 8:45pm | Edited 9:04pm
I am looking for ways to play a future Eurozone stock rally, off the ECB QE, which kicks in come March. Will look at individual names, european index futures options, also US traded ETF's and ADR's, etc.

FEZ is on the edge of tradeability, but a long-dated calendar might be worth a shot, set and forget for a couple months, at least. $43 May/Aug calendar is in profit from $38 to $47 at expiry, has max P of >$1,100 on a $150 risk.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,985
  • Edited Jan 31, 2015 4:40pm Jan 30, 2015 9:00pm | Edited Jan 31, 2015 4:40pm
in the same vein, not much better, VGK
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,986
  • Jan 30, 2015 9:24pm Jan 30, 2015 9:24pm
USO dd gets on for free ($10 net credit) and is safe at expiry from $14.20 to $24.80, maxP's at $22.85 ($1,19x) and $15.25 ($627). I might push down the puts $1 more to be safer against more oil downside.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,987
  • Edited 12:48am Jan 31, 2015 12:26am | Edited 12:48am
A few (dozen) ideas to profit from the imminent rebound in global crude prices
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,988
  • Jan 31, 2015 1:18am Jan 31, 2015 1:18am
PBR scraping bottom again, but could go lower in the coming week if crude will fall back. But as crude rebounds, PBR will, as well. I don't want this trade, but would try same dated $7/$8 vertical for a similar debit, maybe that will show up if PBR dips below $6 again soon...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,989
  • Edited 1:54am Jan 31, 2015 1:33am | Edited 1:54am
a year or so of QE in the EZ and a rebounding crude price should drop EUR/NOK back to 8.0 by 2016 (or maybe well b4)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,990
  • Jan 31, 2015 1:53am Jan 31, 2015 1:53am
bullish qqq, 4+x return if qqq retests its highs by Feb expiry
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,991
  • Jan 31, 2015 3:53am Jan 31, 2015 3:53am
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...eave-the-euro/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,992
  • Jan 31, 2015 2:44pm Jan 31, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Looking for a hard break of 1995 in S/P to confirm the bear is here for the rest of the year
Hi CG... care to post a chart, to see your levels?

Here is my SPX daily chart... I use TV because it is free and very good. Level 1975 on SPX CFDs correspond to 1982 for /ES...

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For day trading, 1992 on /ES was very nice, for like 3 good trades... I had an order there on Thursday I think, but /ES stopped at 1993.25 .
PA is definitely bearish after GDP print, possible rate hike is approaching, and if we see talking heads "worried" on Monday (on Iraq tensions, Greece, oil, energy sector, or whatever) and talking the market down, than shorting indices carry greater reward for some time. (But not for "considerable time" since we all know that bear market if we ever see one, lasts far less than the mighty bull market.)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,993
  • Jan 31, 2015 3:00pm Jan 31, 2015 3:00pm
Quoting The Fool
AAPL finished right around $117.00 and the $116/$117 finished up >$650. I bailed on it for a $180 loss an hour earlier.
That is a bad luck. I had my portion of it also, with a little help of MM Bitchez...
I entered SLB Jan30 80/79.50 put spreads on Monday... rushed with first 5, then averaged position with second 5, giving me $0.085 average debit... A round $100 with comms. Trade was a total loser until Thursday... Then SLB had a massive drop, all the way to $79.52... almost entire spread was ITM. So, I was thinking to close some of it or even all, thinking about a possible pullback. Bid/ask on the spread was very wide - 0.17 / 0.51... I offered some at midpoint, or 0.34 - nothing happened, and I start to lower my offer to 0.32, 0.30, 0.28... nothing. I decided than to close 1/2 on 0.17 but bid was already gone, because price retraced. At the end, there was a bounce on Friday, and spreads expired worthless. So, even if stock has weekly options, AND $0.5 strikes, that doesn't mean that you can be filled at "fair price"... bid/ask spread even for a round 80 number was up to 30 cents wide, like 0.33 / 0.63...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,994
  • Jan 31, 2015 10:25pm Jan 31, 2015 10:25pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} That is a bad luck....
Well, poor execution, certainly. I had chances to get out of the trade with profit, but I held on til the last day, knowing I would increase my reward but also my risk. Dynamic trades like the diagonal spreads are a gamble, especially as they get closer to expiry. You can avoid the excitement by taking profit early. Lessons learned, though....my losses were small & I live to trade another day.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,995
  • Edited 11:59pm Jan 31, 2015 11:34pm | Edited 11:59pm
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/01/bon...-tulip-bubble/

/ZT has been more volatile than usual over the last few months. Only the front month options are tradeable, though. Some good vertical spread opps, but all depends on how you can get filled.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,996
  • Feb 1, 2015 12:18am Feb 1, 2015 12:18am
/ZT futures get the risk aversion flows, move inversely to stock indices. I saw this spread in big numbers from Friday - Mar (2/20 expiry) bear put vertical, $109.75/$109.50, risks $80 to make $415 max, approximately, but is looking for a good hard move south for the notes, like you might see for a good hard bull rally in stocks.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,997
  • Feb 1, 2015 1:45am Feb 1, 2015 1:45am
I did a bunch of these UUP Mar trades, verticals and calendars,... have been liquidating them, down to the last one. UUP is an odd thing to trade, the USD can be strengthening against the euro due to risk aversion, but UUP replicates a basket of long $ futures against the EUR. JPY, CHF, CAD, etc - so there are conflicting forces in there. It'd actually be a good thing to trade if you want something that is not going to move much. Nevertheless, I made money on all of em, just have been skeptical about further hot legs up by 3/20. Another example of a vertical spread that was set up to make a 10x return but actually made a little over 2x, but that's ok...

I may hold a little longer, perhaps Greece news can sink the EUR/USD and push up UUP some
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,998
  • Feb 1, 2015 1:19pm Feb 1, 2015 1:19pm
Quoting The Fool
PBR scraping bottom again, but could go lower in the coming week if crude will fall back. But as crude rebounds, PBR will, as well. I don't want this trade, but would try same dated $7/$8 vertical for a similar debit, maybe that will show up if PBR dips below $6 again soon...
PBR traded almost to $8 just a week ago. If it will dip below $6 in the coming week, this Mar/Apr $8 calendar will be cheaper. PBR will get up on the back of rising crude price....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,999
  • Feb 1, 2015 1:23pm Feb 1, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting The Fool
PBR will get up on the back of rising crude price.... {image}
or not....
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz...rtner=yahootix
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,000
  • Feb 1, 2015 1:33pm Feb 1, 2015 1:33pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hi CG... care to post a chart, to see your levels? Here is my SPX daily chart... I use TV because it is free and very good. Level 1975 on SPX CFDs correspond to 1982 for /ES... {image} For day trading, 1992 on /ES was very nice, for like 3 good trades... I had an order there on Thursday I think, but /ES stopped at 1993.25 . PA is definitely bearish after GDP print, possible rate hike is approaching, and if we see talking heads "worried" on Monday (on Iraq tensions, Greece, oil, energy sector, or whatever) and talking the market...
I'll post one once I take some things off also the TV site is good but its has slightly different closing figures to what I got from my provider
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