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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #51,781
  • Jan 30, 2015 10:44am Jan 30, 2015 10:44am
Quoting phil13
Hi Alexandria First thing to say is this is MY.....

Thanks so much have saved and will have a good read of it - thanks for all your help mate.

check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,782
  • Jan 31, 2015 12:43am Jan 31, 2015 12:43am
Hey guys, I'm wondering how do u calculate unleveraged returns?
To simplify, let's assume no additional deposit and withdrawal.
Will "(absolute return) / ((average trade size)/(initial deposit))" be a good estimate?
  • #51,783
  • Jan 31, 2015 2:02am Jan 31, 2015 2:02am
Inserted Video
  • #51,784
  • Jan 31, 2015 5:51am Jan 31, 2015 5:51am
Quoting fti
{quote} ...Just like cancer, early detection have better chance of survival. If wait until cross line, then.....
This expression shook me a little. This has been my situation last year and detection should have been earlier but lucky for me was early enough as mines is slow growing.

Early detection in life is everything sometimes. So anyone with worries pay attention and do not ignore either in trading or VIP health.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,785
  • Jan 31, 2015 5:56am Jan 31, 2015 5:56am
Quoting fti
{quote} oh north side hot spot now. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30978016 goodnite. regards
north side always is hot spot, especially now, looks like singapore only got 2 kinds of weather, hot and rain.

ah well, actually i guess the weird yen price action and weird aud price action has something to do with next week's aussie rate statement, maybe big boys expecting something, didn't notice this till i looked at the weekly on audjpy.

i was thinking, if i was stuck with eur position, can take delivery on the eur and go buy their stocks in germany? its going to take very long to recover the loss, or maybe even not recover the position at all if eur fundamentals so lousy, might as well buy more eur when lower, take the eur cash and buy german, french stocks and then probably get dividends too, kind of play the indirect way, if eurozone fall out and eur go kaput, the cash is already in robust economy, at most just keep going germany and france tour only, buy lots of prada for ladies, at least can get a smile out of them
  • #51,786
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:09am Feb 1, 2015 3:09am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} This expression shook me a little. This has been my situation last year and detection should have been earlier but lucky for me was early enough as mines is slow growing. Early detection in life is everything sometimes. So anyone with worries pay attention and do not ignore either in trading or VIP health.
I am so sorry hear this.
I assumed you had back problems.
My bad made ass u me.

I opened PM if you need i can give you contact of a person on thread who had beaten it.
You may like to learn how to fight that battle. If you already know, is best.

Fight well,

regards
  • #51,787
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:09am Feb 1, 2015 3:09am
I see everything in terms of trading now, may be my mind has gone really biased. Here is i am learning poker from one of my friends and he refferred a book and the line is


Expert players do not rely on luck. They are at war with luck. They use their skills to minimize luck as much as possible. They figure they're getting the best of it, and they leave lucky draws to their weaker opponents. To the extent that they are getting the best of it, they will win more often than they lose. Over the long run everybody gets the same proportion of good and bad cards, of winning and losing hands. Beginning poker players rely on big hands and lucky draws. Expert poker players use their skills to minimize their losses on their bad hands and maximize their profits on their big hands. They also are able to judge better than others when a big hand is not the best hand and when a small hand is the best hand.

And what different we learning here...


V
  • #51,788
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:13am Feb 1, 2015 3:13am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} north side always is hot spot, especially now, looks like singapore only got 2 kinds of weather, hot and rain. ah well, actually i guess the weird yen price action and weird aud price action has something to do with next week's aussie rate statement, maybe big boys expecting something, didn't notice this till i looked at the weekly on audjpy. i was thinking, if i was stuck with eur position, can take delivery on the eur and go buy their stocks in germany? its going to take very long to recover the loss, or maybe even not recover...
eeer, if i may.If caught in a disavantaged position, is not clever always rescue.
me is only waiting for the right time reaverage and bail out. Mostly will think about this after 19th.
Have not decided yet chop fingers off or try recover.
no buying any assets maary it.
ya ya smiles until the babay on your lap.
then pls pay the bill.
Pls note launch was 1.2
is gone into non performing territorries already.
You ever heard of f francs and dmarks before?



regards
  • #51,789
  • Edited 3:34am Feb 1, 2015 3:20am | Edited 3:34am
Quoting indianguyinny24
I see everything in terms of trading now, may be my mind has gone really biased. Here is i am learning poker from one of my friends and he refferred a book and the line is Expert players do not rely on luck. They are at war with luck. They use their skills to minimize luck as much as possible. They figure they're getting the best of it, and they leave lucky draws to their weaker opponents. To the extent that they are getting the best of it, they will win more often than they lose. Over the long run everybody gets the same proportion of good and...

but this time i got suckered.
always happens when i am happy and not focused.
Is my own bias fault.

I thought the last time it nearly melt down, They very shoulder to shoulder stand together walk out of the storm.
Didn't see the sting of carrying it out to devalue those who come to their assist.
no so pro my stance.

regards
  • #51,790
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:44am Feb 1, 2015 4:44am
Quoting fti
{quote} I am so sorry hear this. I assumed you had back problems. My bad made ass u me. I opened PM if you need i can give you contact of a person on thread who had beaten it. You may like to learn how to fight that battle. If you already know, is best. Fight well, regards
No problem - you were not to know. Last year was the year for procedures but I am ok now - as I said very lucky - maybe him upstairs thought I needed to not take life for granted - who knows - just my bad luck - but my good luck is slow growing and removed - all gone (amazing what surgeons did for me)- next check in 2 years. Thank you for your offer - very kind - hope I do not need it - I will be monitored/scanned now for rest of my life. But you are so correct very important point - EARLY DETECTION - I know they say men are particularly bad at that - we all think never happen to me not in the category but it can. So in trading and health think early detection.

Last year you were telling me not to have the blues (but I do love a bit of jazzy blues music...) and be glad of life and it gave me good kick up the bum so thanks for that - it helped me at the time -though you were not to know. Life is about loving and joy - pity so many do not get that.

Have a good day and thanks again - and for all the great vids.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,791
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:47am Feb 1, 2015 4:47am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} No problem - you were not to know. Last year was the year for procedures but I am ok now - as I said very lucky - maybe him upstairs thought I needed to not take life for granted - who knows - just my bad luck - but my good luck is slow growing and removed - all gone (amazing what surgeons did for me)- next check in 2 years. Thank you for your offer - very kind - hope I do not need it - I will be monitored/scanned now for rest of my life. But you are so correct very important point - EARLY DETECTION - I know they say men are particularly...


regards
  • #51,792
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:52am Feb 1, 2015 4:52am
Quoting phil13
Hi Alexandria First thing to say is this is MY way of helping ME understand the market moves to try to get a clearer picture of what may happen, {image} Regards Phil.
Thanks so much - it is really really odd but I asked my partner a fair few weeks ago about velocity and he used the throwing ball up in air thingy as I was thinking exactly what you have shown. How weird is that. I so get what you are saying. I have been looking at it too but I was a bit unsure about it - FTI points the way to this leg strength.

I really get what you are saying so thank you so much. I appreciate you showing me stuff so publicly.

I am well aware that you know what FTI says about the feel being vital and test and test again until you know where market is at.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,793
  • Feb 1, 2015 4:54am Feb 1, 2015 4:54am
Time to Cleanup and restart rather then fight ??

Not it all fight are worth fighting for

Quoting fti
{quote} but this time i got suckered. always happens when i am happy and not focused. Is my own bias fault. I thought the last time it nearly melt down, They very shoulder to shoulder stand together walk out of the storm. Didn't see the sting of carrying it out to devalue those who come to their assist. no so pro my stance. regards
  • #51,794
  • Feb 2, 2015 7:54am Feb 2, 2015 7:54am
anyone watching mkt? nothng is moving in ny session
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,795
  • Feb 2, 2015 8:03am Feb 2, 2015 8:03am
Quoting Jacque
anyone watching mkt? nothng is moving in ny session
Hi Jacque

nothing out there i want to trade ATM either, its all over the place.

news in hour, may kick things off....

regards

Phil
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,796
  • Feb 2, 2015 8:07am Feb 2, 2015 8:07am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Jacque nothing out there i want to trade ATM either, its all over the place. news in hour, may kick things off.... regards Phil
good day fren, yea and yen has been doing the wide quick move up down in range since ny open
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,797
  • Feb 2, 2015 9:50am Feb 2, 2015 9:50am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Jacque nothing out there i want to trade ATM either, its all over the place. news in hour, may kick things off.... regards Phil

I have been long eur today with feel but would be cautious if I were trading higher numbers - which I am not at the mo'.


eur h1 & d1 - well shows it
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,798
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:07am Feb 2, 2015 10:07am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I have been long eur today with feel but would be cautious if I were trading higher numbers - which I am not at the mo'. eur h1 & d1 - well shows it
Hi Alexandria

well done all that matters is +pips, things are just not looking right for me so far, though now with the news out of the way there are one or two pairs that are looking better to me, i could see the long in E/U myself this morning but i just was not comfortable taking that position myself, will wait for now...aud and nzd are off limits to me today as i do not want to get stuck in them with the rate news coming out tonight/later.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,799
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:18am Feb 2, 2015 10:18am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria well done all that matters is +pips, things are just not looking right for me so far, though now with the news out of the way there are one or two pairs that are looking better to me, i could see the long in E/U myself this morning but i just was not comfortable taking that position myself, will wait for now...aud and nzd are off limits to me today as i do not want to get stuck in them with the rate news coming out tonight/later. regards Phil.
Thanks - but I do agree about moves - just went with true feel and clues & RoK - I am still focused on 1 pair although starting to look at others now more.

Done for now.

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,800
  • Feb 2, 2015 3:25pm Feb 2, 2015 3:25pm
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