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Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

  • #401
  • Jan 19, 2015 1:49pm Jan 19, 2015 1:49pm
crude will go up this half of year, every week oil rigs going down. last week oil rigs down 17 to 1482. soon o r later crude will go up.this is only speculation agains russia
  • #402
  • Jan 20, 2015 3:06am Jan 20, 2015 3:06am
The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive for now as well as those of the 4h one supporting further strength. I bought small at 47,82 putting a stop at 46,35 for a move above 50.
  • #403
  • Jan 20, 2015 1:00pm Jan 20, 2015 1:00pm
buying oil? why? are you only scalping? but still why?
  • #404
  • Jan 21, 2015 12:30pm Jan 21, 2015 12:30pm
Oil tried to rally on Wednesday but failed on 48 as its all Resistive move till around 50.
I would only be long if 50 is crossed and it sustains. till then I would strictly follow the trend or very common technique
sell the failed rallies and buy the damn hammer

Even with been already oversold it seems its un-decided where it wants to go, experts I know personally who's been playing heavy on OIL since a decade
say they fear it could test 40-42 which would be strange possibility but still something which cannot be ignored.
  • #405
  • Jan 24, 2015 10:42am Jan 24, 2015 10:42am
I expect oil to fall lower following the death of the saudi king and the comment of the new king who wants to proceed with the previous policies on oil.
  • #406
  • Jan 24, 2015 11:53pm Jan 24, 2015 11:53pm
Good morning.
The price of oil will hit the floor and bounce at some point, even if it is going to be just a dead cat's bounce. What would be the floor? 40$?
  • #407
  • Jan 25, 2015 12:58am Jan 25, 2015 12:58am
Quoting xy76
Good morning. The price of oil will hit the floor and bounce at some point, even if it is going to be just a dead cat's bounce. What would be the floor? 40$?
I don't know the bottom but I am sure it will come. US producers are cutting rigs, cutting capex, cutting jobs, and Summer is coming, demand will pick up seasonally and maybe as part of developed country economies heating up, too....we'll see. Anyway, I always have cheap USO calendars or diagonal call spreads working, like the one below. I get these on for as close to free or small credit as I can (which effectively nullifies downside risk). WTI is not making any strong up moves so I get these out a couple months with otm calls. P/L has to be reassessed often, since the I.V. will start dropping as crude price comes up, and that will cheapen the options, but even so, there are some very good r:r possibilities. You just have to watch out for strong moves beyond your projected upside b/e's.

I do the same thing with UNG. I would trade options on /CL, but it's not allowed from my IRA accounts, which is where I mostly trade from...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-01-25_USO.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-01-25_USO2.png Size: 107 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #408
  • Jan 25, 2015 1:26am Jan 25, 2015 1:26am
I can double up the diagonal spreads and extend the profit range to March expiry. The 20-lot trade below can get filled for $0.04 credit, making it a dead b/e entry - a free trade, with a profit range from +/- USO $13 to $21.50 - about WTI $38-$60. You have to hold diagonals and calendars like this til near expiry, about until the 2nd week of March in this case, so they're not daytrader action. On the other hand, as long as USO price is well off my b/e's, I can forget about the trade for days at a time....Double-sided spreads only get dinged for the margin of one side...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-01-25_uso3.png Size: 67 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #409
  • Jan 25, 2015 10:58pm Jan 25, 2015 10:58pm
Quoting The Fool
I can double up the diagonal spreads and extend the profit range to March expiry. The 20-lot trade below can get filled for $0.04 credit, making it a dead b/e entry - a free trade, with a profit range from +/- USO $13 to $21.50 - about WTI $38-$60. You have to hold diagonals and calendars like this til near expiry, about until the 2nd week of March in this case, so they're not daytrader action. On the other hand, as long as USO price is well off my b/e's, I can forget about the trade for days at a time....Double-sided spreads only get dinged for...
Options, then? I am trading oil CFDs at the moment, been thinking about trying options for a while.
  • #410
  • Jan 25, 2015 11:04pm Jan 25, 2015 11:04pm
Quoting xy76
{quote} Options, then? I am trading oil CFDs at the moment, been thinking about trying options for a while.
options will be well worth your while - but do take a while to master. I would not trade anything (or anywhere) that didn't allow the opportunity to hedge with options concurrently.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #411
  • Jan 26, 2015 12:30am Jan 26, 2015 12:30am
Blizzard on the east coast, natgas futures slippimg overnight. Long-range forecasts show warmer than normal late-winter/spring for N. America. I bet we will see natgas break $2.50 in the next 1-2 months, maybe dip toward $2.00 by late Spring.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-01-26_noaa.png Size: 212 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #412
  • Jan 30, 2015 11:27am Jan 30, 2015 11:27am
bulls trying to close the week up?
  • #413
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:00am Jan 31, 2015 4:00am
According to recent data the number of drillings in US has dropped significantly. It doesn’t affected the oil output so far (January was the month with the record high oil supply), but it can lead to reduction of it in the future.
  • #414
  • Feb 2, 2015 1:40am Feb 2, 2015 1:40am
I want to buy, because indicators of the daily chart are still well positive supporting higher levels.
  • #415
  • Feb 2, 2015 3:02am Feb 2, 2015 3:02am
crude oil should match within 49.8 by mid day if issues countie in ukraine ,simple buy @ 46.7 tp 49.1
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #416
  • Feb 2, 2015 7:51am Feb 2, 2015 7:51am
Dont think its over yet?


Speedy123
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: OIL-USDX-30-1-2015.png Size: 48 KB
  • #417
  • Feb 2, 2015 8:56am Feb 2, 2015 8:56am
Quoting Waqasahmed35
attack on syria cam move crude oil upto $150
I am not particularly sure whether that would be the case. While I agree with you that geopolitical instability in the Middle East could shake the Crude price significantly, the recent plunge amid tensions in the Crimea region involving Russia and Ukraine along with ISIS in the Middle East have counted for little with regard to the current crude prices. I believe the key to the current plunge rests on two major aspects: The USD and OPEC. Nonetheless, regardless of what happens in Syria, now could be a good time to open a long position on Crude Oil.
  • #418
  • Feb 2, 2015 1:21pm Feb 2, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting moonshot
{quote} I am not particularly sure whether that would be the case. While I agree with you that geopolitical instability in the Middle East could shake the Crude price significantly, the recent plunge amid tensions in the Crimea region involving Russia and Ukraine along with ISIS in the Middle East have counted for little with regard to the current crude prices. I believe the key to the current plunge rests on two major aspects: The USD and OPEC. Nonetheless, regardless of what happens in Syria, now could be a good time to open a long position on...
Unless ISIS decides to attack an oil rich country like Saudi or increase its activity in Iraq, the price of oil should remain low. Syria and ISIS alone are not important enough influence to oil price movement in my opinion. Its about threatening the supply and demand.
  • #419
  • Feb 2, 2015 2:42pm Feb 2, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} Unless ISIS decides to attack an oil rich country like Saudi or increase its activity in Iraq, the price of oil should remain low. Syria and ISIS alone are not important enough influence to oil price movement in my opinion. Its about threatening the supply and demand.
lol US stores almost 500k soldiers there for a reason=cheap oil for security.As for oil being below 60$ is only reason of russia and ukraine,because if it stays below 60 russians are loosing heap loads of money,since oil is their main export after gas,so US sanctions made oil drop not Opec or saudis who are more then happy to cash in on every buck they get.Only real response ive read that having oil above 100$ is taking pi$$ of most countries,since general price of 80$ is considered to be 50% profit as is,all extraction work aside.
  • #420
  • Feb 3, 2015 6:52am Feb 3, 2015 6:52am
Quoting pinkiaiii
{quote} lol US stores almost 500k soldiers there for a reason=cheap oil for security.As for oil being below 60$ is only reason of russia and ukraine,because if it stays below 60 russians are loosing heap loads of money,since oil is their main export after gas,so US sanctions made oil drop not Opec or saudis who are more then happy to cash in on every buck they get.Only real response ive read that having oil above 100$ is taking pi$$ of most countries,since general price of 80$ is considered to be 50% profit as is,all extraction work aside.
Well, while I personally do not wish for such (attack) to happen, that would probably shake up the price of oil. The current strike has already demonstrated how slowing production and hence supply could impact prices. Therefore any actions that might destabilize the oil rich countries and thus affect oil production could spike a price hike. However, I still believe that politics are playing a huge role in the current oil prices.
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