Technical Analysis Fallacy

Well said chief. That's just about sums it all up.

Always a fan, regards

thanks but i didn't mean to be arragant.

regards

back in E/U this morning....

regards

Phil.

Yup eur is my man

Duh - yes I get what you are telling me - slowly does it as there is much for the market to teach me - get good foundation and do not rush - stay safe and manage book - adapt with terrain. You are correct I do not feel trained.


Thank you.

Got out after exhaustion bar and following candle action - gave bad feeling

.....that was just a stop run against me, i added at the top to bring my position closer, but just pulled out with some nice pips on the drop,, was only going to be hit and run so close to the news, will wait before considering next trade.

regards

Phil.

Hi Alexandria

you was long?

i was heavy short.

regards

phil.

Yup sorry -I was small short then flipped long then short at top on failed upthrust and strong selling getting in. - I got out my short in a win as I had to do sth else and could not babysit.

That all sounds so good in hindsight but TBH I was just trying to go on feel and feeling the candle turns - the long was coz the poor reaction after the first swing up long on m5 and then strength long came in on candle feel alone so I flipped - cannot quite remember the detail but lots going on well that is how it seemed to me. I was trying not to be biased if that is possible.

Maybe what I was doing is being a pig - do not know just went with gut and only felt it 1 way at a time. Who knows - gave me a bit of a headache TBH now so you see I am still clumsy but I am getting better at controlling me - seems a bit of a blur now.

Regards

Did you rescue your shorts then ok in nice down?

Hi Alexandria

no rescue on this one my friend i was short from just before i posted this morning, you often see these stop runs at that time of day, so in my attack it was allowed for, i will try to find something to show you how i think/see/ and helps me feel the market/charts, if you can take something from it good if not just ignore it.

back in a while, just looking for more opportunities atm....

Regards

Phil.

stop runs are predominant when market thins down.
during active sessions esp during london NY sessions, is not stop runs, is market adjusting to order books.
and some market makers filling order books, on prices within their reach. Once in blue moons some manipulators may show up.
But they will seldom do that unless they think they are BIG.





regards

Hi fti

thank you for the correction my friend, the reason i thought it was a stop run was because in m15 there was an hour and 15 mins of selling this morning after the run up during the Asia session, to me the bulls looked to be weakening and were still below yesterdays 90pip impulse down, so when price only overshot the last high by about 8pips then dropped sharply, i took it as stop run, the rest of the market did not seem to be in sync with the move so thought it was forced up.

again thank you for the correction, i will remember stops runs are normally in thin markets.

regards

Phil.

Cheers - really appreciate it.


Regards

Thanks so much for explanation.

So that high was a really good target and on the hit - boy it all changed. Earlier I felt that the power had shifted long but had to fight my short bias just did flip fast then thought oh was that a bad idea or not - RoK was ok - some of it better than others. So my bias was short at first for sure without me knowing it. Then I flipped scout short on feel power drain off of the bulls. Boy there is a lot to experience. This will be a long journey for sure.

Maybe the feel means there is a fight and they are slugging it out and then suddenly you can feel a winner - I think that is what it felt like.

How can we know this is what is going on if we cannot see orders - just by feel or are there things to watch for?

I think I looked at the up move and the reaction to it that was weaker but I flipped fast - think I felt it with candle before the large tail candle which was a sure boost.

Regards

no worries, my friend.
The focus is not on whether is right or is wrong.
If the result is plus, you nearer being correct , if book says minus then one need think what distracted.
If you consistently able hold the peace, yu're mostly home. Sometimes gets mosquito bites though.

Just remember what ever you feel test test again before jump int the waters.
The more you test the more likely that your're close.

Even if you are totally out of sync, if you detect that , is a plus. Just like cancer, early detection have better chance of survival.
If wait until cross line, then
But depends, some peeps lines faster than others.
That why everyone tweek parameters/algos, only remember when someone/thing gains something gives. Is mostly relative to pot.
When things becomes too sensitive , can die by 1000 arrows.
If too bias die by arragance.


regards

the old clip is dead.
try this one.
looks like germ warfare. Good germs die bad germs die.
respect and humility may have peace. no fight no die.
no force position, give and take. where can give give, where can take take.
Its a market place.....AoW

Thank you FTI for all your help and support. God bless.

I will spend some time thinking over what you have said and watch your vids again - I love 'em.

I need to find where the market is and this is why feel is soooo important and why we need to test and test again and have no bias?

Have a good one Phil too and every one else.

Hi fti

If you feel this post is not appropriate for your thread, just say and I will remove it, It will probably give you some more clues to the way I am thinking now since our chat about engines and additives.


Hi Alexandria

First thing to say is this is MY way of helping ME understand the market moves to try to get a clearer picture of what may happen, you also need to look at the market as a whole, this is just another tool I use that helps me sometimes with individual charts, as I say if you can take something and use it to YOUR advantage, great, if not just discard what I am saying here.

Below is the technical way of trying to show you this, but I am not clever enough to understand all equations, so lets keep it simple.


Things that go up come down, take the E/U, if ‘0’ is the ground it may be on its way there. When we throw a ball, what happens? Initially the force is put into it from the swing of your arm, as it leaves your hand it begins to accelerate and travels quickly, then as the force weakens the further it gets away from you it starts to slow down, then for just a moment it stops as the opposing forces start the process again but this time it is in the opposite direction, for me the critical part of this journey to understand is the part when the forces are equal (the moment it stops and turns), to do this it must have at least the same opposite force applied to it, this is a law of motion. Action-Reaction.




The easiest way for me to understand motion as it relates to a chart/market is in the picture below, the further the ball travels stops and restarts the smaller the waves become, now I am not on about rigidly applying Elliot wave theory, for me that is just a guide/something to enable me to start to understand the market moves in waves (pump and rest). When fundamentals or manipulators are acting upon the market then it can be hard to understand and apply this as with all things, so recognising these situations and trading them with the knowledge that the waves may be distorted at times is key to understand and to allow for it, not everything in the market is nicely ordered all the time, always allowing for the unexpected is a must, rules are there to broken they say. No position is also a trade at these times.
For me my job is to make money from the market, so sitting at my desk with no trades is not productive for long period of time, hence my trading most days.


Here is my E/U M15 chart, the numbers are the next high or low pip count depending on direction, I do not actually now need to put the numbers on my chart, I have done so you can see what I am looking and the relation to the above attempt at explaining myself, if you look you will see just with this basic law combined with the last impulse I can start to try get a feel for what may be happening in normal market conditions. but of course always be prepared to be proven wrong.


Here is a chart affected by fundamental news (expectation of possible rate change) A/U. even though it slowed in the middle of the drop (suggesting weakness in momentum) it has not had an equal (or more) and opposite force/reaction appear in any of the legs down yet.


Here is what I saw this morning and the only part of the chart I used to make my decision (though I was also watching the rest of the market), as it turned out both long/short was correct as market has ranged since our trades. Candles are only relevant tools to me after I have my possible direction, I personally only find them useful for very short term use, if I use them most of the time they give me conflicting information that is why I only use them after direction to try to get the next leg.


Regards

Phil.