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Let's Trade Options

  • #6,941
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:30pm Jan 29, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Idk, seems to me it is easier for AMZN to go down than up, after earnings......
Common theme for ER's over the last year has been AMZN getting shot down at the ER, then bought back soon after. Q4 earnings this year, encompassing Xmas season, should be good for AMZN - but how have the other retailers fared? I don't recall. I wouldn't want to be hung out 1-sided on this big mover, though....good luck, SDog.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,942
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:59pm Jan 29, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting The Fool
30yr fixed rate mortgages should be <3.5% before Summer.
Got fixed rate on mortgage coz thought Spanish real estate market bringing EU housing prices down, now with ECB move :/, think was a bad idea.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,943
  • Jan 29, 2015 2:07pm Jan 29, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Got fixed rate on mortgage coz thought Spanish real estate market bringing EU housing prices down, now with ECB move :/, think was a bad idea.
You should just demand that the ECB buy you a house.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,944
  • Jan 29, 2015 2:30pm Jan 29, 2015 2:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} You should just demand that the ECB buy you a house.
They´r gonna buy it anyway.
Ghost rural village in Spain only 50K pounds last year. If it drops and mortgage is for free, perhaps I take it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...on-garage.html.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,945
  • Edited 3:52pm Jan 29, 2015 2:46pm | Edited 3:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} trying to fill the $149/$150 for $3 debit...
RE: TLT, she dropped, but IV came up and those otm options gained, so the entry is stuck at $0.04-0.05
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,946
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:06pm Jan 29, 2015 3:06pm
Man you are doing such beautifull combos with those options. I understand like 40% of it but I like it . Cant wait for exams to finish, would really like to learn it. Am reading this thread for some time, but is just general look, need proper background first.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,947
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:19pm Jan 29, 2015 3:19pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Man you are doing such beautifull combos with those options. I understand like 40% of it but I like it . Cant wait for exams to finish, would really like to learn it. Am reading this thread for some time, but is just general look, need proper background first.
well tanx. Nothing magic, though & you can still lose your ass if not careful. For instance: I am underwater on the AAPL diag spread. share price has run too far and I am out on the death slide. If AAPL sells off tomorrow $2 I will make a bunch, if it keeps going up I will lose a bunch. I moaned about closing out one of them early, but I see my original fears were not misplaced, AAPL caught a big move, too big for my diag spreads.

OTOH, I closed the FB doubl diag for a $0.35 net gain. They paid me $0.08 to take the trade and another $0.25 to get out.

I was doing well to close the Jan5 bear put spread this morning, m/l @ b/e. I "knew" the US indices would shrug off any hawkish residue from the FOMC. I still think we should see new index highs in Q1, but it might be a bumpy trip. I also still think the long bonds will get bought, so I'm liking the little bear action seen today, will allow better entries for inevitable future rallies.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,948
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:24pm Jan 29, 2015 3:24pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I may write a strangle on this later near the end of trading as there more strength coming into the market because of the $
missed on writing the strangl


Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
-NasdaqGS
311.78 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 7.87(2.59%) 21:00
|After Hours: : 333.81 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 22.03 (7.07%) 9:20PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #6,949
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:27pm Jan 29, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} missed on writing the strangl Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) -NasdaqGS 311.78 {image} 7.87(2.59%) 21:00 |After Hours: : 333.81 {image} 22.03 (7.07%) 9:20PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
yeah I ate a big bowl of Jambalaya at lunch while thought about getting in the AMZN doubl diagonal I showed above, or something like it, but could not pull trigger. I like watching the options action in the hour before the close pre-ER, pretty whacky.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,950
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:28pm Jan 29, 2015 3:28pm
Nono man, is magic. Am trading swings and most of my work is focused on cycle research. Need to say here worst results in examining cycles are in timing. Think level prediction can be well analyzed through wave and cycle structure, but to hit timing, I very often fail. Regarding this, 2011 I was saying EU will hit low of current cycle like oct 2014 - may 2015. We are coming to that . Quite high time spread, but screw that for long term cycle. These timings almost always fail. And I see options as a perfect mathematical way how to deal with these little timing problems. Just use them properly.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,951
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:29pm Jan 29, 2015 3:29pm
AMZN $22 up, right in line with the EM.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,952
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:31pm Jan 29, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Nono man, is magic. Am trading swings and most of my work is focused on cycle research. Need to say here worst results in examining cycles are in timing. Think level prediction can be well analyzed through wave and cycle structure, but to hit timing, I very often fail. Regarding this, 2011 I was saying EU will hit low of current cycle like oct 2014 - may 2015. We are coming to that . Quite high time spread, but screw that for long term cycle. These timings almost always fail. And I see options as a perfect mathematical way how to deal with these...
Options have cycles of their own, too, intrinsic to how the options market is set up, so there's another level of complication there to confuse you...or for you to exploit, if you so desire.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,953
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:33pm Jan 29, 2015 3:33pm
Yes, exploit, my plan is to learn marcroeconomics and trade for 30 years to know everything and then eat LSD and unite with market. Think it is somewhat what Buddha was saying .
Anyway, gtg, cya later and good luck,
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,954
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:41pm Jan 29, 2015 3:41pm
Would you rather fade AMZN or AAPL? I will have to see what the AMZN noise is all about, but I have to wonder if it can hang on to any big gains....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,955
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:45pm Jan 29, 2015 3:45pm
Quoting The Fool
Would you rather fade AMZN or AAPL? I will have to see what the AMZN noise is all about, but I have to wonder if it can hang on to any big gains....
let the dust settle, they smashed earnings 45c p/s, expectations were 17c
  • #6,956
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:49pm Jan 29, 2015 3:49pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} let the dust settle, they smashed earnings 45c p/s, expectations were 17c
jumpin jeebus, maybe they will even turn a profit someday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,957
  • Jan 29, 2015 10:04pm Jan 29, 2015 10:04pm
I'm on the death slide with this UNG diagonal, will wait out over the weekend & maybe see a rebound towards $14...but really, I think natgas is going to test the lows of the last 20 years. Feb expiry is too long to wait on this, will look for a chance to bail near b/e. If it keeps dropping, idk...maybe they'd reverse split it....make it more tradeable.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,958
  • Jan 30, 2015 1:30am Jan 30, 2015 1:30am
EXPE dd, hold til ER day - 2/5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-01-29_EXPE.png Size: 67 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,959
  • Jan 30, 2015 9:36am Jan 30, 2015 9:36am
fresh news

Greece says will not cooperate with troika or seek aid extension
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,960
  • Jan 30, 2015 9:38am Jan 30, 2015 9:38am
Quoting StrayDog
OK, I am in a bearish trade on AMZN... Jan30 305/307.5 bear call spread, for 1.20 credit. ER's in AH.
That was a complete loss, $1.30 + comms.

So, dead wrong there, a loosing team had a surprising victory... and another earnings outlier move.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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