Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Wednesday July 26 at 17:30 ET


USD/JPY has progressed 168 pips so far towards its target. However, it is likely to bounce up about 100 pips now to form Leg C of a complex A-B-C corrective Wave 4. So we advise temporarily exiting the short position, and possibly even reversing to catch some of the bounce action.

Temporarily exit TS #126C Short USD/JPY at 116.17

[Note: USD/JPY just fell 88 pips further to 115.29 overnight July 27]
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Previous trade signal:



Update TS #126C Sell USD/JPY at 117.85
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Price of USD/JPY fell 204 pips to 115.81, then bounced up 62 pips to 116.43. A complex upwards corrective wave is possibly underway.


The target ( Target is 114.00) is still within sight.

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Wednesday July 19 at 9:00 ET

TS #126C Sell USD/JPY at 117.85
As predicted, USD/JPY rose to slightly higher than 117.85 ("USD/JPY should be shorted the next time it rises to about 117.50 - 118.00. The price 117.80 is an important resistance line. This may be the turning point, or slightly higher.")
Stop is 118.08
Target is 114.00
Risk is 25 pips
Reward is 383 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 15.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

Wednesday July 26 at 18:15 ET

AUD/JPY will be sellable soon - at about 88.90 to 89.25

AUD/JPY has risen about 450 pips since June 5, 2006. According to our model, it is likely to rise once more and then reverse at about 88.90 to 89.25, and then travel down to about 86.00 again.

Wednesday July 26 at 18:30 ET

Re-enter TS# 114F Sell EUR/JPY at 148.00

Since we last advised shorting EUR/JPY at 147.64, it went 3 pips higher than our entry price, and then plunged 87 pips to 146.77. Then it shot up today to 148.03, which we believe is a high which may not be surpassed.

Re-enter TS# 114F Sell EUR/JPY at 148.00

Stop is 148.32

Target is 145.75

Risk is 35 pips

Reward is 221 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 6.3 to 1


For research purposes only.
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Previous trade signals and comments:

Friday July 21 at 11:45 ET
Re-enter TS# 114E Sell EUR/JPY at 147.64
Stop is 147.81
Target #1 is 145.00
Risk is 20 pips
Reward is 255 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 12.8 to 1
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Friday July 21 at 11:00 ET

EUR/JPY rose to 147.86, taking out our stop of 1.4735 belonging to TS# 114C Sell EUR/JPY at 147.00 - 147.10.
It since fell 99 pips to 146.87, then bounced in a complex corrective wave pattern to the current price of 147.40.

Re-enter TS# 114D Sell EUR/JPY at 147.40
Stop is 147.55
Target #1 is 145.00
Risk is 18 pips
Reward is 237 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 13.2 to 1
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Re-enter TS# 114C Sell EUR/JPY at 147.00 - 147.10 <HR style="COLOR: rgb(209,209,225)" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Note: the stop was too small. According to our system, it should have been at 1.4735. If necessary, re-enter at 1.4720 to 1.4725 and re-adjust stop.


Wednesday July 19 at 12:30 ET

The stop on this trade was too small, and was thus triggered by a few pips. We therefore advise re-entry at 147.00 - 147.10.
Re-enter TS# 114C Sell EUR/JPY at 147.00 - 147.10
Stop is 147.26
Target #1 is 145.00
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Update as of 5:30 ET Wednesday July 19:
As recommended earlier, sell EUR/JPY at 147.00
Re-entry opportunity TS# 114B Sell EUR/JPY at 147.00
Stop is 147.11
Target #1 is 145.00
Risk is 14 pips
Reward is 197 pips
Reward : risk ratio is 14.0 to 1
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Wednesday July 26 at 23:30 ET

TS #134 Sell CAD/JPY at 104.20

Stop is 104.85

Target is 100.40

Risk is 75 pips

Reward is 380 pips

Reward : Risk is 5.1 to 1


For research purposes only.
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Since the last trade signal EUR/CAD fell 147 pips to 142.86, then rose quickly to 1.4460, near to the entry price.

Thursday July 27 at 2:15 ET_

Re-entry opportunity TS#116F Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4460

Stop is 1.4474

Target is 1.4000

Risk is 24 pips

Reward is 450 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 18.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

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Previous trade signals and comments:

Friday July 21 at 10:45 ET_

Re-entry opportunity TS# 116E Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4433

Stop is 1.4467

Target is 1.4000

Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 423 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 9.6 to 1
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Wednesday July 19 at 15:00 ET

Re-entry opportunity TS# 116D Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4306 - 1.4310

Comment: On Friday July 14 at 10:45 ET we advised "Exit TS# 116D Sell EUR/CAD" trade due to the likelihood of a major bounce. In fact it did bounce exactly there, but only 42 pips, before resuming its downtrend. The trend carried on to 1.4132, which is 308 pips below the minimum entry price. EUR/CAD then bounced up 178 pips to the current price of about 1.4310, which we believe is the top of the corrective upwards component wave. Thus we believe it is a good time to re-enter a short position on this currency pair.

Re-enter TS# 116D Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4306 - 1.4310
Stop is 1.4331
Target is 1.3950
Risk is 34 pips
Reward is 347 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 10.2 to 1
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Friday July 14 at 10:45 ET

Exit TS# 116D Re-Enter Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4440 - 1.4450
Temporarily exit this trade at the current market price of 1.4241, for a minimum profit of 190 pips, as a significant bounce is expected.

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Tuesday July 11 9:30 ET
The drop in the Canadian dollar due to a Bank of Canada data release provides another good low risk, high reward short trade opportunity.
TS# 116D Re-Enter Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4440 - 1.4450
Stop is 1.4466
Target is 1.3950

More details here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfo...2FCAD#post72909

Thursday July 27 at 10:15 ET

TS#35 Buy USD/CHF at 1.2310

Stop is 1.2295

Target is 1.2500

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Previous trade signals and comments:

Buy USD/CHF at 1.2397 (note - this signal was stopped out)
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Wednesday July 26 at 17:00 ET
Since we advised exiting the short position on Friday July 21 at 14:15 ET at a price of 1.2360, the price of USD/CHF went up strongly 186 pips to 1.2546. This would have been a great sell opportunity, as it had formed a clear complex A-B-C corrective wave at that point. Since then it fell 149 pips to 1.2397, which is the current price, at which point we advise exiting the sell position, and entering a buy position to catch the corrective wave.
Buy USD/CHF at 1.2397
Stop is about 1.2380
Target is about 1.2500.
This is not a low risk : high reward trade, just a test of our system.
For research purposes only.
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Update TS #128B Sell USD/CHF at 1.2450 <HR style="COLOR: rgb(209,209,225)" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Friday July 21 at 14:15 ET
USD/CHF fell as predicted from 1.2450 to 1.2356 (94 pips) at 14:00 ET July 21. The target is 1.2335, which will likely be met. [target of 1.2306 was hit on Thursday July 27 at 9:30 am ET] But there could be a sizeable bounce at around this level. We therefore suggest exiting the trade the next time it drops to 1.2360, taking about 87 pips of profit, and re-enter a little higher, after a corrective five wave set, or a complex corrective wave.
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During the night USD/CHF descended to 1.2416. It then bounced to 1.2450, which is a good re-entry opportunity. This is the top of a complex corrective wave pattern.
Re-enter TS #128B Sell USD/CHF at 1.2450
Stop is 1.2471
Target is 1.2335
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Update as of 21:00 ET Tuesday July 18
TS #128B Sell USD/CHF at 1.2548
Stop is 1.2561
Target is 1.2360
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Comment Friday July 21 at 5:30 ET:
USD/CHF fell 70 pips to 1.2381 one hour ago, and is now starting a bounce.

Comment Friday July 21 at 14:30 ET:
USD/CHF rose 23 pips to 1.2404 as predicted, and then proceeded to form a downwards five wave set, a component wave, descending 48 pips, leading down to 1.2356

Thursday July 27 at 10:30 ET
TS #133A Sell AUD/USD at .7656
Stop is .7677
Target is .7350

Risk is 25 pips
Reward is 302 pips
Reward : Risk is 12.2 to 1


For research purposes only.
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Previous Trade Signal:

Wednesday July 26 at 16:30 ET
TS #133 Sell AUD/USD at .7618
Stop is .7645
Target is .7325
Risk is 31 pips
Reward is 289 pips
Reward : Risk is 9.3 to 1<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

Thursday July 27 at 11:30 ET

The price of GBP/USD rose this morning to 1.8675, much higher than our expected high of 1.8549. This is a possible reversal point. The last component wave was very abrupt, and was considered an irrational move of the market. However, it forced compliance with both of our market models. Since this fast, irrational move, the price of GBP/USD quickly fell to 1.8615, suggesting that a reversal is underway. Sell on a rise.
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Previous trade signals:

Comment on July 26 at 14:30 ET: the price of 1.8549 was just reached. The pattern looks complete now, or very nearly complete. Re-entry short GBP/USD is advised now. Confidence level is high.

Wednesday, July 26 at 14:00 ET
Fourth Re-Enter Opportunity TS #130C Sell GBP/USD at 1.8518
Stop is 1.8541
Target #1 is 1.8400
Risk is 27 pips
Reward is 114 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.2 to 1

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Wednesday, July 26 at 11:00 am ET
Third Re-Enter Opportunity TS #130B Sell GBP/USD at 1.8473
Stop is 1.8514
Target #1 is 1.8330
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Friday July 21 at 15:45 ET_
Second Re-Enter Opportunity TS #130A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8590 - 1.8600
Stop is 1.8621
Target #1 is 1.8330
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Friday July 21 at 10:00 ET_
Re-Enter TS #130A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8590
Stop is 1.8621
Target #1 is 1.8330
Risk is 34 pips
Reward is 282 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.3 to 1
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Friday July 21 at 5:00 ET
TS #130 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8550
Stop is 1.8568
Target #1 is 1.8330
Risk is 22 pips
Reward is 216 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 9.8 to 1

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Monday July 31, 2006 9:00 ET

Canadian GDP figures came in soft which caused an upwards spike in USD/CAD and EUR/CAD. Therefore...

Re-entry opportunity TS#116G Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4410

Stop is 1.4474

Target is 1.4000

For research purposes only.

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Previous trade signal:

Since the last trade signal EUR/CAD fell 147 pips to 142.86, then rose quickly to 1.4460, near to the entry price. Thursday July 27 at 2:15 ET_
Re-entry opportunity TS#116F Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4460
Stop is 1.4474
Target is 1.4000
Risk is 24 pips
Reward is 450 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 18.8 to 1
For research purposes only.

Monday July 31, 2006 11:30 ET

Canadian GDP figures came in soft which caused an upwards spike in USD/CAD and EUR/CAD. Therefore...

TS#136 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1310

Stop is 1.1342

Target is 1.1175

Risk is 37 pips

Reward is 130 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 3.5 to 1

For research purposes only.

Tuesday August 1 at 23:00 ET

Friday's poor U.S. GDP figures sent GBP/USD soaring about 250 pips. We are nearing the turnaround point.

TS #130C Sell GBP/USD at 1.8870


Stop is 1.8916

Target #1 is 1.8280

Risk is 50 pips
Reward is 586 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 11.8 to 1

For research purposes only

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Previous Trade Signals:

Wednesday, July 26 at 11:00 am ET
Third Re-Enter Opportunity TS #130B Sell GBP/USD at 1.8473
Stop is 1.8514
Target #1 is 1.8330
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Friday July 21 at 15:45 ET_
Second Re-Enter Opportunity TS #130A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8590 - 1.8600
Stop is 1.8621
Target #1 is 1.8330
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Friday July 21 at 10:00 ET_
Re-Enter TS #130A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8590
Stop is 1.8621
Target #1 is 1.8330
Risk is 34 pips
Reward is 282 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.3 to 1
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Friday July 21 at 5:00 ET
TS #130 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8550
Stop is 1.8568
Target #1 is 1.8330
Risk is 22 pips
Reward is 216 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 9.8 to 1
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Wednesday August 2 at 00:30 ET

Friday's poor U.S. GDP figures and this afternoon's Australian interest rate announcement sent AUD/USD rising about 60 pips. The current price is .7675. We are nearing the turnaround point.

TS #137 Sell AUD/USD at .7700

Stop is .7732

Target #1 is 1.7420

Risk is 36 pips
Reward is 277 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 7.8 to 1

For research purposes only

I think there is some typing error on this.. did you meant 1.8770 itme?

Wednesday August 2 at 14:00 ET

Since the dissapointing U.S. GDP figures on Friday July 28 at 8:30 ET, GBP/USD has risen 260 pips from 1.8534 to a recent high of 1.8794

Our model indicates that it will probably reverse here and go downwards for about 50 to 100 pips before reversing again and continuing up to its trend high of about 1.8870.

Will yesterday's posts be restored, or are they erased?

Hi Itme,

I am not a staff member, just a normal user, but I think what happened was that the database had a problem and had to be restored. The backup seems to have been 2 days old so all posts after that are "gone". If there had been a more recent backup I assume they would have used that, so I assume the posts are gone.
If would be so kind as to update anyway, I am very interested in the GBP/USD posts
I also think we should exhaust soon, but the NFP and BOE really punched it up...
We are now at the 1.9060, I think this is where you set the short entry? 9020-9060 or so....would love to see things updated!

Keep up the great work on so many posts! Great call on EUR/JPY before its 220 pip drop

Friday August 4 at 10:00 ET

Friday's non-farm payroll figures sent GBP/USD rising about 210 pips, from 1.8914 to 1.9124. The current price is 1.9060. We are nearing the turnaround point.

TS #138 Sell GBP/USD at 1.9073

Stop is 1.9118

Target #1 is 1.8280

Risk is 48 pips
Reward is 790 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 16.4 to 1

For research purposes only

Note: this trade was stopped out when GBP/USD rose to 1.9124. The continuation of this trend at least until 13:00 ET was predictable. The high was reached at 11:00 ET this morning, and it appears that GBP/USD will rise again one more time to reach the same high a second time, or make a higher top.

Friday August 4 at 10:00 ET

Friday's non-farm payroll figures sent EUR/USD rising about 118 pips, from 1.2789 to 1.2907. The current price is 1.2907. We are nearing the turnaround point.

TS #139 Sell EUR/USD at 1.2907

Stop is 1.2936

Target #1 is 1.2450

Risk is 31 pips
Reward is 450 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 14.7 to 1

For research purposes only

Wow thats a bold call Itsme and very counter-trend. Let's see if you are right.

Friday August 4 at 12:45 ET

Last Friday's poor U.S. GDP figures and Tuesday afternoon's Australian interest rate announcement sent AUD/USD rising about 60 pips to about .7680. Today's worse than expected U.S. non-farm payrolls also moved it up about 75 pips. The current price is .7665. We are nearing the turnaround point.

TS #137 Sell AUD/USD at .7687

Stop is .7708

Target #1 is .7420

Risk is 25 pips
Reward is 243 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 9.7 to 1

For research purposes only