Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 261 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,201
  • Jan 28, 2015 12:04am Jan 28, 2015 12:04am
Quoting ahmedalhosenyy
{quote} Hello alfonso and many thanks for great efforts I have an idea to help readers catch the changes easily '' To Mark the edited parts with a different color and font'' Thanks Again
There are already many different colors in the texts, doing that would not help, it would look like a Picasso drawing
I will normally update when that happens, it's always good to read all of rules from time to time, it helps a lot, so it should do no harm Thanks for the heads up!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,202
  • Jan 28, 2015 12:15am Jan 28, 2015 12:15am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} There are already many different colors in the texts, doing that would not help, it would look like a Picasso drawing I will normally update when that happens, it's always good to read all of rules from time to time, it helps a lot, so it should do no harm Thanks for the heads up! Cheers, Alfonso
Please correct

Last updated: 5th September 2014
  • #5,203
  • Jan 28, 2015 1:31am Jan 28, 2015 1:31am
Quoting Shantala
{quote} Please correct Last updated: 5th September 2014
Oppps... Sorry, you are right my friend. I corrected the last update date just now. Thanks for letting me know!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,204
  • Jan 28, 2015 2:19am Jan 28, 2015 2:19am
Quoting melcer
{quote} It's definitely II supdem indicator. If you want I have an indicator that works way better than II supdem. It isn't based on zigzag. Of course it shows only DBR and RBD zones and to be sure, we should all learn to draw supply demand zones manualy but if you want to there is a function to activate zones that were taken out. Everything on the attached picture. Indicator attached. {image} {file} {file}
tyVm@melcer: exactly what I need !
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #5,205
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:37am Jan 28, 2015 11:37am
Hi,

I'm kinda new at this, i really love your attitude for trading and appreciate all your effort, I feel like I can post my first top to down analysis.
I didn't finish my homework, still in progress but meanwhile I love to jump into the water.
I'd be glad to receive comments on analysis.
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  • #5,206
  • Jan 29, 2015 2:40am Jan 29, 2015 2:40am
Quoting judgemegod
Hi, I'm kinda new at this, i really love your attitude for trading and appreciate all your effort, I feel like I can post my first top to down analysis. I didn't finish my homework, still in progress but meanwhile I love to jump into the water. I'd be glad to receive comments on analysis. {image} {image} {image}
Thanks for your contribution and sharing your first analysis with us. Gold short scenario makes sense as per the rules. If the D1 DZ is taken out then we could have some nice shorts, we're in a downtrend so shorts are fine!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,207
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:26am Jan 29, 2015 3:26am
Triggered long on USD/SEK Daily demand zone. Monthly, weekly and daily timeframes are up, US very bullish. I trade also the exotics like USD/SEK and many others, only on Daily and Weekly supply and demand imbalances. The new D1 demand imbalance was the one that caused the removal of a Weekly supply zone, it gives more odds to it.

In an uptrend demand zones are respected, new demand zones are created and supply zones are taken out and disrespected. My SL has been moved higher below the reaction, this one won't be a loss. Let's see if it wants to rally higher.

As you can see, the trade was planned before it happened, we just have to follow the rules and expect that the trade will work, if it's a loss, next one please. Hopefully long on USD/SEK will rally higher and give me some nice profits. I took a few longs from much lower but closed them as prices progressed. This pair has behaved really well and many other US cross pairs and exotics.

There could be more longs happening on this one and other US cross pairs, watch them! Bias is definetely long on most!

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,208
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:36am Jan 29, 2015 3:36am
Triggered short on AUD/NZD Daily supply zone nested at a Weekly supply zone with a clear Monthly and Weekly downtrend.

  1. Monthly is down
  2. Weekly is down
  3. D1 was up and out of alignment
  4. D1 realigning with the Monthly and Weekly downtrend based on supply and demand imbalances

Hope the analysis is clear. I didn't post the MN and Weekly charts but they are down and those timeframe's imbalances can be seen with the horizontal trendlines that the rectangle indicator draws on all timeframes.

I moved my SL much lower now, so risking much less in this trade after seeing the reaction to Weekly supply zone.

Have a great day!
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,209
  • Jan 29, 2015 7:21am Jan 29, 2015 7:21am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Thanks for your contribution and sharing your first analysis with us. Gold short scenario makes sense as per the rules. If the D1 DZ is taken out then we could have some nice shorts, we're in a downtrend so shorts are fine! Cheers, Alfonso
Hello alfonso

I need to understand an issue if the trend is Clear Up on weekly which is the middle time frame is it better to stay aside on Daily or go with the bigger time frame trend ( Monthly ) and trade against weekly
  • #5,210
  • Jan 29, 2015 8:36am Jan 29, 2015 8:36am
Quoting panoramia
Triggered short on AUD/NZD Daily supply zone nested at a Weekly supply zone with a clear Monthly and Weekly downtrend. Monthly is down Weekly is down D1 was up and out of alignment D1 realigning with the Monthly and Weekly downtrend based on supply and demand imbalances Hope the analysis is clear. I didn't post the MN and Weekly charts but they are down and those timeframe's imbalances can be seen with the horizontal trendlines that the rectangle indicator draws on all timeframes. I moved my SL much lower now, so risking much less in this trade...
Nice Trade alfonso some traders would missed it with some pips

1 - Now : About the plan How you will control the trade '' Which targets you use for the trade do you use Daily levels or you keep trailing until get out ?

I see a CP level the day before yesterday is it a good place to exit the trade or part of it at that level?

2- If the market reverse up again which daily supply level will be valid for sell again the next green'' used'' or the top red level '' not used'' ?
  • #5,211
  • Jan 29, 2015 9:46am Jan 29, 2015 9:46am
Quoting ahmedalhosenyy
{quote} Hello alfonso I need to understand an issue if the trend is Clear Up on weekly which is the middle time frame is it better to stay aside on Daily or go with the bigger time frame trend ( Monthly ) and trade against weekly
Ahmed, you have to apply the realignmet rules, as easy as that. Read Post #1 and you will get the answer on which timeframe you need to wait in order to trade with in a high odds direciton.

Read that part on realignment and the sequence, it's a core rule in the strategy, I guess you have not read that or you have not understood it. There are videos on the YouTube channel as well, you should watch them with a good XXL teatop full of tea by your side

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,212
  • Jan 29, 2015 9:47am Jan 29, 2015 9:47am
Quoting ahmedalhosenyy
{quote} Nice Trade alfonso some traders would missed it with some pips 1 - Now : About the plan How you will control the trade '' Which targets you use for the trade do you use Daily levels or you keep trailing until get out ? I see a CP level the day before yesterday is it a good place to exit the trade or part of it at that level? 2- If the market reverse up again which daily supply level will be valid for sell again the next green'' used'' or the top red level '' not used'' ?
My temporary target can be seen in the chart at the bottom, I will trail my Sl with new zones, CPs or peaks, if it decides to keep on dropping. A CP is valid or taken seriously if it goes with the trend and it has removed an opposing zone.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,213
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:46pm Jan 29, 2015 5:46pm
Quoting panoramia
Triggered long on USD/SEK Daily demand zone. Monthly, weekly and daily timeframes are up, US very bullish. I trade also the exotics like USD/SEK and many others, only on Daily and Weekly supply and demand imbalances. The new D1 demand imbalance was the one that caused the removal of a Weekly supply zone, it gives more odds to it. In an uptrend demand zones are respected, new demand zones are created and supply zones are taken out and disrespected. My SL has been moved higher below the reaction, this one won't be a loss. Let's see if it wants to...
Hi Alfonso,

I can see some violations to some of the rules, monthly is in a uptrend but to high in the curve (the supply zone has not removed any thing but still supply with an engulfing pattern) weekly is up but is over extended and the price could drop to bigining of the move, and daily is in a over extended up trend and the base is not good, we have a lot of wicks and we have more than 6 bars on that level.

Roberto
passion and discipline
  • #5,214
  • Jan 29, 2015 9:43pm Jan 29, 2015 9:43pm
Many Thanks alfonso iam reading Now


But while reading 1st post and in the scenarios part i find only one scenario !!!! is that the only one ?

TRADE SETUPS SCENARIOS
Scenario #1: the sequence
1. Weekly is up and strong
2. D1 is up and strong and we have a nice D1 demand area, Trendline is even being respected on the D1
chart
3. The H4 is down, dropping like a rock into fresh and original D1 demand area, scared with those red
bullish falling knives candles?
4. There is a fresh (not original) H4 swing low (valley) level with a great departure right at the D1 demand
proximal line
  • #5,215
  • Jan 30, 2015 12:31am Jan 30, 2015 12:31am
Quoting rohule
{quote} Hi Alfonso, I can see some violations to some of the rules, monthly is in a uptrend but to high in the curve (the supply zone has not removed any thing but still supply with an engulfing pattern) weekly is up but is over extended and the price could drop to bigining of the move, and daily is in a over extended up trend and the base is not good, we have a lot of wicks and we have more than 6 bars on that level. Roberto
Violation of the rules? It all depends on what your rules and trading plan are. Over-extended? Yes, it lowers the odds. The basing is not that great, we're talking about a cross pair, it lacks the liquidity of the majors, so you will find levels like that MANY times. However, what if your trading plan says that you trade all levels until you get a loss? Would it be right then? That's what my trading plan says, so according to my plan the trade is correct.

Rules are rules, you must understand them and apply them to your personal trading plan. Each trading plan will be different, mine different to yours, yours different to other's. We all know how to fry an egg, hopefully , but I've got my "own" plan on how to move the spoon, how much oil to put, salt, etc. If the egg is fresh and from a real chicken (not those from the supermarket where animals eat unhealthily), the egg will fry/behave differently.

It's all about rules + trading plan! Look at all the US cross pairs, aud/usd, etc. They are all over-extended. Does it mean we won't take any more trades? We need a trading plan bases on X rules, I've got mine based on the rules on post #1 and my experience.

Hope it makes sense,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,216
  • Jan 30, 2015 2:12am Jan 30, 2015 2:12am
Hi Alfonso! Hi everybody! Can somebody explain me what does it mean "A level that has inherited its supply/demand property will not have accomplished the removal of a zone by itself, but by a level that was created after its own creation"?
Does it mean that this first level (which has not removed a zone by itself) will also be validated and confirmed as a level if the next level removes a zone? Or not?
Or this phrase is about something else?
  • #5,217
  • Edited 3:23am Jan 30, 2015 2:48am | Edited 3:23am
Quoting Ivan-M
Hi Alfonso! Hi everybody! Can somebody explain me what does it mean "A level that has inherited its supply/demand property will not have accomplished the removal of a zone by itself, but by a level that was created after its own creation"? Does it mean that this first level (which has not removed a zone by itself) will also be validated and confirmed as a level if the next level removes a zone? Or not? Or this phrase is about something else?
That's a more advanced type of thing Ivan. Draw a trendline, follow the realignment rules, you will be on the right side most of the time, impossible to be right always Inheritance is a more "advanced" concept, we first need to be able to locate zones correctly, the inheritance thing will come later. A inherited level is one that did not take out an opposing zone by itself, a level higher/lower than itself did it, but that rally/drop by the second level allowed the previous one that didn't, to inherit the supply or demand property of the one that took out opposing zone.

It's a tricky concept, this is why I label it as "more advanced"
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,218
  • Jan 30, 2015 4:03am Jan 30, 2015 4:03am
Quoting panoramia
Triggered long on USD/SEK Daily demand zone. Monthly, weekly and daily timeframes are up, US very bullish. I trade also the exotics like USD/SEK and many others, only on Daily and Weekly supply and demand imbalances. The new D1 demand imbalance was the one that caused the removal of a Weekly supply zone, it gives more odds to it. In an uptrend demand zones are respected, new demand zones are created and supply zones are taken out and disrespected. My SL has been moved higher below the reaction, this one won't be a loss. Let's see if it wants to...
USD/SEK D1 long is not doing much, come on rally a bit and break higher please By SL is almost protected, it would be a super small loss, but I'd prefer it to rally
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,219
  • Jan 30, 2015 4:06am Jan 30, 2015 4:06am
Some biases for a few pairs based on supply and demand and the quality of the levels... I am currently on quite a few trades because the bias was with me for several reasons.

  1. AUD/USD --> Shorts. I have a couple of shorts running
  2. CAD/JPY --> Shorts. I have shorts running on this one
  3. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, SGD/JPY, AUD/JPY all Yen cross pairs have a short bias. Short on GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY, SGD/JPY
  4. EUR/USD --> Shorts
  5. GBP/USD --> Shorts
  6. NZD/USD --> Shorts. I have a short running here
  7. USD/CAD --> Longs
  8. USD/JPY --> Shorts, it's in consolidation now, but shorts is the bias, the strongest of the Yen pairs
  9. GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD --> Longs

Hope these biases help you make better decisions.
Cheers,
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,220
  • Jan 30, 2015 4:07am Jan 30, 2015 4:07am
Triggered short on GBP/SGD, both on D1 and WK accounts. D1 was nested at WK SZ's proximal line, confluence with descending WK TL and WK 20.

WK is in a downtrend. MN in consolidation. WK SZ zones with WK in a trend tend to hold well on first retests with a MN consolidation.

Cheers,
Alfonso

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