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About Candlesticks: Why they were created? What do they reveal?

  • #21
  • Jan 28, 2015 6:18pm Jan 28, 2015 6:18pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Great thread Good to see people talking about ideas. {image}
Cryptic challenge time...

I get the balance is tipped, but in what direction? The image on the far right shows all the highs being revisited but again how do we establish that the balance/bias has tipped in that direction from candlestick analysis?
What's it all about? It's all about money.
  • #22
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:46pm Jan 28, 2015 10:46pm
I'm a long-time lurker, and never contribute, I get social anxiety even over the internet, ha... Anyway, I'm also a subscriber to CrucialPoint, among others, and have found much of his stuff very insightful, that is when I figure out what he's trying to say, or rather what I think he's trying to say. Expanding a little bit on some of your first post, I myself, did some statistical analysis on the relationship of the open with its counterparts and in keeping in line with what nunrgguy has said previously, I wanted to develop a system that relied solely on the current candle, forsaking all previous price history in terms of signalling entries into the market. Using past history only as a means of forming statistics. I concluded, for myself, that the close was therefore not important for my purposes and could essentially throw it in the bin.

Out of curiosity, about a year ago, I created a modest spreadsheet with approximately 2 months worth of data of hourly candlesticks. 2 months isn't anything impressive but I am no programmer and manually entered almost all of the information myself. What I was looking for was the relationship that developed between the open and the high/low for any given hourly session. To get to the 'Crucial' point, what I found was that 56.5% of the time the open was within 25% of the high/low. If I get picky about when I trade and only trade the NY session, that percentage increased to 57.6%, and increased further to 59.9% when only using data from the London/NY overlap. I know this sounds confusing so I'll try to illustrate using your cycles:
Attached Image


So you can conclude to some degree here that the High/Low forms and retraces back to the open and continuing further in the opposite direction completing the other 75%+ of the candle. I hope this has some relevance to your thread topic and that you find it helpful. I'll include the spreadsheet that I created if its of any assistance.

Regards
BTS

PS - Thanks to all of the FF contributors that have, unknowingly, helped me on my journey. And especially to CrucialPoint. Cheers mate.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Open-High-Low Relationship.xlsx   464 KB | 1,098 downloads
  • #23
  • Edited 12:35am Jan 29, 2015 12:21am | Edited 12:35am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} {quote} This is because I trade the tick charts and don't look at candlesticks. So quoting me in regards to this thread can be misinterpreted.
To wick or not to wick, that ^ is the answer.

Thought this was the case as it did not align with your midpoint analysis post;

http://www.forexfactory.com/webkit-f...0cf0f/imagepng

Quoting CrucialPoint
Inside the pot I wonder if there is a way of telling how many people are selling and buying at a particular amount of time. I think there might be an edge if someone knows of very large pending orders (buy or sell) that will pressure and move the price. I mean.... why would I sell if market movers are buying and putting pressure and pushing the price in a particular direction? ======================== Explanation: :nerd: You can see the bulls vs the bears in a particular amount of time. It is like looking inside the pot of whether the bulls or the bears are dominating. Kind of like looking in the books which is top secret classified. Draw a mid-point of the high and low of a bar. If the close is below, there are more bears, sellers or amount of sell orders. If the close is above, there are more bulls, buyers or amount of buy orders. That's what is inside the pot. {image} Through my research, even knowing what is inside the pot doesn't guarantee success. At any point in time, any market movers can drop large amounts that will put pressure on the price. Order flow is not the answer to success. It can help decision making, but it is not a guarantee nor an absolute... Unless you can see the top secret live order executions of the market makers... insider trading... you go to jail for that
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post3779159
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
  • #24
  • Edited 7:51am Jan 29, 2015 12:59am | Edited 7:51am
finally, the Crucialpoint has replied to this thread! What took you so long Thanks the OP for starting this thread. It helps to crystallise my trading and remove unnecessary froth.

The candlestick is just a tool to provide visual cues to the movement of the price - up or down - and that's all. The OHLC provides a tangible framework for us to define the market, or else how do we define the market as there are so many infinite possibilities. Whether the previous candle has any effect on the current candle is subject to debate. But the best answer I can offer is that from my own research, the number of bullish and bearish daily candles is about the same. This is from 10 years of data! This when it opened my eyes that the previous candle has no whatsoever impact/effect on the current candle.

And from my statistics research, it reveals again the price will either close below or above the open price - about 95% of the time. It started with what Crucialpoint has mentioned.....but this is really the essence of trading.
.....


Now, I will take time to ponder these great responses from nunrgguy and Crucialpoint.
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.
  • #25
  • Jan 29, 2015 3:23am Jan 29, 2015 3:23am
I may not know why candlesticks were created but personally it gives me an easy visual perspective of which sentiments are at play much easier than bar price charts.
"Candlesticks are the accumulative knowledge/sentiment of everybody participating in the buying/selling a particular commodity/security at a specific time frame". It depicts where selling/buying pressure is most strong/weak. Candlestick patterns are quite powerful for spotting trend reversals as well. What i understand is that before market makes a turn around or breaks out, candlesticks displays a signal by creating a pattern, that is, the combination of 1 or more candlesticks. This occurs even before oscillators and trend indicators gives signal.
Remember this: Price moves in the path of LEAST resistance.
If u think u can, then u can!
  • #26
  • Jan 29, 2015 9:27am Jan 29, 2015 9:27am
Thank you everyone for the contributions : )

Quoting nunrgguy
{quote} You misinterpret: completely: I said trade only the current candle, not the last candle.
I am sorry that I have used that term 'last candle', but what I meant by that is indeed the current candle', the one that is developping. So I did not misinterpret I think ( I said last, because on the chart this is the last candle I see on the chart, the current one that is developping, but maybe that is not correct use of "last" in English for that meaning. ^^)

Quoting nunrgguy
I also said that past candles are not of any visual use but may have statistical use....but only on a per candle basis. Why 'wonder what the original reasoning was'? Are you likely to ever know? Is anyone likely to ever know? Is there an ancient Japanese person to hand to ask? Thought not. We can reason and ponder all we like...thousands of pages of thread of reasoning and pondering but we will never know. Consider the phrase: Past performace is no guarantee of future resuts. Ponder it and try to understand what it means as virtually no-one that...
Why wonder what the original reasoning was ? As I said, it may help to understand what the persons who designed it used to see in them. If they designed it, it might be because it gave them some useful information, useful and important information (visually) that have been forgotten now in these times. Why representing price evolution in candlesticks, they could have also just write OHLC in a table. But they designed candlesticks. Of course, we can consider that it was designed with no intent or meaning whatsoever, though I really doubt it. But it is possible.
Quote
The past has NO bearing on the future. NONE. Don't I think both ways can be reliable? Emphatically: no.
It seems difficult for persons to consider the idea that you can be right when you say "The past has NO bearing on the future", and that someone who would say "the past HAS bearing on the future" could be right too, at the same time. For me both are true. But one vision use certain parameters to operate, and the other one use different parameters. Somehow their 'universe' are different. Very often it seems that one vision have a lot of difficulty to consider the possible existence and usefulness or rightness of the other parameters used by the other vision. (a bit like people arguing between randomness and non-randomness, to me both are true at the same time and can actually coexist without any paradox. Like the finite vs. infinite, etc...)
As you might guess I am the kind of person who thinks that true randomness does not exist at all from a Universe-point-of-view (but which is a very useful concept to describe things that happen and that we cannot explain yet, and that we might never be able to explain as humans), and that everything in the past since the very birth of the Universe has bearing and consequences on everything.
But, as yet we cannot explain everything, it makes sense to me when CrucialPoint, to take an example, said that he based his system as if the market was truly random (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post6278663) My brain is not developped enough to seize all the implications but somehow I think it is very wise to be able to do so, as in that way, whatever some initial conditions may change or not, you don't have much to worry. But my guess is also that basing his system on the idea that the Market is random, he may have discovered interesting non-random patterns.
Maybe with some out-of-the-box thinking you may observe interesting things about past candles by trading only the current candle. : )

Quoting diceman555
GOOD THREAD, Personally a candle stick has heaps of information within it,especially when combining time frames. firstly you have determined a reference point.if they converge across time frames. they are perfect averaged price points,again when orders are accumulating at giving levels you can see these converge to 1 point. you can determine the maximum potential of a given period,again they converge to 1 point. you can determine the range of trading for a given period,again a break can be seen from the evolving potentials. you can not determine...
Thank you very much diceman555, this is interesting and confirms some points I read about and was sometimes thinking (but without being able to go forward from there). Having such a map with potential areas and ranges is obviously nice information.

Quoting CrucialPoint
Great thread Good to see people talking about ideas. {image}
Thank you very much for passing by !
These balances will make us think, no doubt : )

Quoting Innate
{quote} Cryptic challenge time... I get the balance is tipped, but in what direction? The image on the far right shows all the highs being revisited but again how do we establish that the balance/bias has tipped in that direction from candlestick analysis?
I'm not sure about the balances and will take time to think more about this, as actually I had already tried to draw the horizontal line as CrucialPoint did on this chart some time ago.
But maybe you can try to see these "high" as "Open" instead of highs, so that these V areas become then the lower wick of a potential UP candlestick (white body with C>O ).
Inversely, you can see "low" as "Open" instead of Low, so that /\ areas become the upper wick of a potential DOWN candlestick (black candle with C<O )

These A-shapes (bottom->top->bottom revisited) and V-shapes (top/bottom/top-revisited) might give important hint I think but I did not see how yet. I started drawing them looking at S-shape patterns on charts from a long thread I read on another forum (what I mean by S-shape looks like the picture below, taken from one of CrucialPoint's thread )
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...mentid=1030920
( Also, maybe it can be interesting to look at the time spent to go from the high to the bottom and the time spent to go from the bottom to the revisited high. One balance for price, one balance for time ^^ or for another potential 'z' axis )

Quoting BadTunaSalad
I'm a long-time lurker, and never contribute, I get social anxiety even over the internet, ha...
[...]
To get to the 'Crucial' point, what I found was that 56.5% of the time the open was within 25% of the high/low. If I get picky about when I trade and only trade the NY session, that percentage increased to 57.6%, and increased further to 59.9% when only using data from the London/NY overlap. I know this sounds confusing so I'll try to illustrate using your cycles: {image} So you can conclude to some degree here that the High/Low forms and retraces...
Glad to see you overcame your social anxiety and contributed here haha : D
Thank you very much for your sharing, and yes, it is relevant. Every information or question that can make us think is relevant : )
It is just quick thinking but maybe this 25% observation is interesting coupled with what I just said above, considering revisited high or low as potential Open and upper/lower wick.

Quoting hunting pips
But the best answer I can offer is that from my own research, the number of bullish and bearish daily candles is about the same. This is from 10 years of data!
And according to my researches it is the same thing for the High/Low order inside the candles.

030985
  • #27
  • Edited 3:00pm Jan 30, 2015 2:13pm | Edited 3:00pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Great thread Good to see people talking about ideas. {image}
Not wanting to start a debate about timeframes as this thread had an excellent discussion on the subject;

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=327553

Looking at the image CP posted, it illustrates a real weakness of candlesticks, the illusion of timeframes. Price action is continuous, tick by tick. Segmenting a continuous stream of data into arbitrary time periods to create candles causes some of the information embedded in the data to be lost. The market does not move in a discrete, stepwise fashion based on arbitrary TFs. The higher the TF the greater the information lost.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jap.png Size: 93 KB


Given the triangle or delta in the LHS image represents the lower wick in this stylized example, the movement of price downwards from the open to the low and then back upwards to the open. This is the balance represented by the scales. The smaller the TF the cleaner this movement is, a single path, down, loss of momentum, turning point and then upwards movement back to open.

Look at the largest delta in the lower RHS image, the length of the top line representing the TF. It is comprised of many smaller deltas as it is formed, with multiple up and down paths within the TF. By aggregating these into the higher TF candle we lose the important order flow information that created the smaller deltas. Why is this important?

This has a big impact when measuring momentum on a continuous basis to help gauge the strength of a move or loss of momentum. The upper RHS image illustrates how after a retrace shown by the delta, that price action could develop as either a continuation or a reversal. This is why measuring momentum is so important and we extract as much information that the price data has given us by using looking at price action as a continuous, not timeframe based discrete variable.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
  • #28
  • Jan 31, 2015 6:08am Jan 31, 2015 6:08am
Correct: There are no 'timeframes' in the essence of how most people see them and use them, there is only tick data and data compression.
The only timeframe one should consider is this: how long do you intend to hold the trade for?



If you are day trading you are trading the daily 'timeframe' I.e. By definition your trade will be closed before the end of the day...you are trading the CURRENT daily candle. You have a time limit between x and y of when you can open or close a trade. Within this time period you have 1 known datum: the open, price can be either above it or below it.....
To repeat you can trade the breakout from the open or the retrace from the extreme, there is nothing else you can do. It was ever thus.
  • #29
  • Feb 1, 2015 5:31pm Feb 1, 2015 5:31pm
Quoting kprsa
030985 & Nijee: I'll upload the up/down volume indicator I have made when I am back at my computer the next week. Salut de Paris! k

k

P.S. Nothing wrong with the French, had a great time.


Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 VolUpDn.mq4   2 KB | 753 downloads


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Clipboard01.jpg Size: 130 KB
  • #30
  • Feb 7, 2015 2:25am Feb 7, 2015 2:25am
Thanks kprsa. Look forward to having a play with it.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
  • #31
  • Edited 9:05pm Feb 9, 2015 8:43pm | Edited 9:05pm
Great thread OP. and have loved reading the responses from every one on this matter.

Quoting CrucialPoint
Great thread Good to see people talking about ideas. {image}
Also love seeing your pics and post my friends. I had to go digging through the bin to find them all.

My interpretation of the pic
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CP, I would be more than honored to hear your input when you return...
  • #32
  • Edited 5:25pm Feb 10, 2015 9:52am | Edited 5:25pm
👍
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.
  • #33
  • Feb 10, 2015 5:24pm Feb 10, 2015 5:24pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
Great thread OP. and have loved reading the responses from every one on this matter. {quote} Also love seeing your pics and post my friends. I had to go digging through the bin to find them all. My interpretation of the pic {image} {image} {image} CP, I would be more than honored to hear your input when you return...
Thank you for you input. I totally get what you mean.

Question tho, how do you determine when the scales tip from one side to the other (in a technical sense). In the image you posted the green session (boxes) and the red sessions are of equal size and alternate Buy/Sell/Buy/Sell. Surely there are times when this pattern wouldnt hold. Is there any theory you have applied to determining a Sell session vs a Buy Session?

Thanks.
What's it all about? It's all about money.
  • #34
  • Feb 10, 2015 5:28pm Feb 10, 2015 5:28pm
U can clearly see the point of reference is the daily opening price. Price will either go up or down from the open. That's all price will ever do.😊
to see the price movement, u will have to go down to the smallest time frame or even ticks to get a clearer picture for entry and exit. To think that some FF gurus advocating higher time frame. lol
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.
  • #35
  • Feb 10, 2015 5:36pm Feb 10, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting Innate
{quote} Thank you for you input. I totally get what you mean. Question tho, how do you determine when the scales tip from one side to the other (in a technical sense). In the image you posted the green session (boxes) and the red sessions are of equal size and alternate Buy/Sell/Buy/Sell. Surely there are times when this pattern wouldnt hold. Is there any theory you have applied to determining a Sell session vs a Buy Session? Thanks.

The big green and red boxes you are seeing are the daily candles. You are just looking at a 1 minute or 5 minute line chart of how the daily candle forms.
  • #36
  • Feb 10, 2015 7:27pm Feb 10, 2015 7:27pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
Great thread OP. and have loved reading the responses from every one on this matter. {quote} Also love seeing your pics and post my friends. I had to go digging through the bin to find them all. My interpretation of the pic {image} {image} {image} CP, I would be more than honored to hear your input when you return...

or This...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 6.23.58 PM.png Size: 154 KB



  • #37
  • Edited 9:02pm Feb 10, 2015 8:35pm | Edited 9:02pm
Surely There Are Times When These Patterns Wouldn't Hold

Quoting Innate
Surely there are times when this pattern wouldn't hold.
"For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction." Newton's third law of motion

This is where a lot of traders fail to see and understand because of certain biases being activated in their brain. Find me any pattern and I will show you the equal opposite pattern. Yet traders fails to see the opposite pattern (Reticular Formation). You don't even have to back-test it and I can guarantee that there is an equal opposite.... I keep telling this to traders and yet they don't here me >>>> Understand and Master the Basics.

You would be surprised how many traders question me about Newton's Laws of motion have to do with trading.
Usually I have a sick sense of humor and would reply: "NOT A DARN THING!"
and they would reply: "Then why did you bring it up in the first place?"
in which I would reply: "I have mild schizophrenia and sometimes have flight of ideas."

I have a knack for not answering any questions directly here on forums (too much time and energy consuming). It's this simple: If you've accumulated enough experience (not counted by years), it makes sense. If not, I sound like I'm talking about unicorns and fairies. In which I tell people too simply unsubscribe from me, but then they will abuse me instead (because its more fun). And when I don't reply, they get more frustrated Ahhhh oh how I love the "Predictably Irrational" part of the human mind. And it's this part of the mind which screws a lot of traders when it comes to trading.

Pay very close attention to these 2 post and it should answer your questions >>>> and then you will have more questions Well, better questions.
CHALLENGING A LOSER
LET'S SEE THIS ON A HIGHER TIME FRAME

Peace,
CrucialPoint
  • #38
  • Feb 11, 2015 8:23am Feb 11, 2015 8:23am
Just some thoughts...

I have been thinking for a while about the MTF combination, to such I composed a little tool to plot the Opening prices for various Time Increments(I hate calling them TFs as I don't think they really are), onto a live chart to see if anything popped out. That is in the pic "TFs" I've attached. It essentially just plots the opening price for various chosen TFs. You can see how many I can view, b/c for a while I had thought the TFs(again hate that word), should be divided up by a DAY. This was my logic as I figured EVERYONE accepted that a universal amount of time was a day. But it always irritated me, for years, to think about how not everyone's day STARTED @ the same time. I tried to rationalize many different ways around this, i.e. using 00 GMT, or just using whatever the exchanges open was. But I never felt like these were real answers.

But, as mentioned by CP a while back, EVERYBODY around the world Syncs there clock to the top of the hour... well duh! I dunno why I hadn't thought of that?!?!? So using an hour makes sense. I would go even further and say that ANY sub-hour increment of time would be the same around the world, so 60 min and below.

W/Regard to the thread, for a while now I've been using the Open of a 30 min bar as a reference point(that's ALL I use the charts for and then look away from it). I've been practicing this as I figured it might help me to pick some point of reference, to pick the bias for my trades. Simply put, if price is above, I'm ONLY even THINKING about longs, the shorts aren't even a consideration. Obviously reverse for shorts.

For a long time, I've used only the DOM for trading the ES, but with no real bias, other than the intuition I've picked up from screen time. I've only been doing this for about a month(using a reference point), but I have noticed that MOST times, I'm taking trades in the direction where price has ACTUALLY MOVED! Where before if I would look at the locations on the chart I was trading, there would be shorts where price was moving strongly up, and longs where price was moving strongly down. A simple concept, actually so simple that it's funny when I think about it. If anything, I think it also has the benefit of de-cluttering the mind with thoughts of what you should be doing, and not thinking about picking direction seems like it might allow the brain to function a bit more efficiently.

For those who've thought about the idea of a reference point before, I think we'd all tend to agree that the reference point itself doesn't matter much, it could be the time you sit in front of your PC, or something else. And for the topic of the thread, I think the KEY function of the candlestick is simply that it shows a point of reference, 4 of them in fact. Obviously candles obscure what really happened within it range, but the only information it does capture accurately are those 4 data points, of which I think are mostly arbitrary as they vary so much depending on the bar increment you happen to split your chart into.
Attached is a pic of the what my workspace looks like now title "reference."
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  • #39
  • Feb 11, 2015 9:30am Feb 11, 2015 9:30am
This thread is probably the best-kept secret in FF. People have no idea what they are missing by following some other useless threads (so called gurus who are teaching nonsensical candlestick patterns and artistic chart templates) which will lead them nowhere to trading success. By exploring and thinking critically about candlesticks and its meaning, it will give them a fighting chance for success.
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.
  • #40
  • Feb 11, 2015 11:09am Feb 11, 2015 11:09am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} k P.S. Nothing wrong with the French, had a great time. {file} {image}
Thank you very much kprsa for your sharing
( and glad to see you had a good time among us : D )

On my chart I displayed both UpPath and DownPath as positive values, and then derived some moving averages of it. It seems that it can give interesting information ( stop hunting ? ) but there are times where Market keeps trending, and I'm not sure how to deal correctly with this. I wonder if there is a way to anticipate "breakout/false breakout" only thanks to these datas.

Quoting Sis.yphus
Great thread OP. and have loved reading the responses from every one on this matter. {quote} Also love seeing your pics and post my friends. I had to go digging through the bin to find them all. My interpretation of the pic {image} {image} {image} CP, I would be more than honored to hear your input when you return...
Thank you Sis.yphus for popping in ( I find your name quite appropriated regarding how I am doing with my researches about trading haha )
I think it is due to my english and semantics, but I am not sure to understand what you call the 'scale' if I may ask ? Is it an equivalent word for 'balance' ?
If so, on your picture, what 'tilts' the scale is the body of the candle and the current close, is it correct ? ^^

Quoting hunting pips
Price will either go up or down from the open. That's all price will ever do.��
It certainly reminds to some of us the quote "95% of the time, Price will close either above or below the opening price. Less than 5% of the time, Price will close at its opening price." of CrucialPoint

Quoting forrestang
Just some thoughts... I have been thinking for a while about the MTF combination, to such I composed a little tool to plot the Opening prices for various Time Increments(I hate calling them TFs as I don't think they really are), onto a live chart to see if anything popped out. That is in the pic "TFs" I've attached. It essentially just plots the opening price for various chosen TFs. You can see how many I can view, b/c for a while I had thought the TFs(again hate that word), should be divided up by a DAY. This was my logic as I figured EVERYONE...
Hi Forrestang !
Thank you for your post. As you say, what we choose as the reference point is not really important as long as we have one reference point (and from there our "Buy" and "Sell" "hemispheres").
Your plotting of different Opening TF makes me think to the modified candles I observed some time ago (but did not get anything particular from it yet, maybe i should take time to study it again ). Maybe it can give some ideas to some of you :

On the picture below, there is the normal 5 min chart (grey candles), and below it, each candle is a 1 hour candle, but updating every 5 minutes. ( green when Close>Open and red for Close<Open )
So to be clear :
- the open is the opening price 60 minutes ago
- the high is the highest high of the last 60 minutes
- the low is the lowest low of the last 60 minutes
- the close is the same as the 5 min charts
( It is somehow similar to plotting a 12 periods Donchian Channel on 5min chart, except that you can also see the opening price 12 periods ago )

030985
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