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  • #6,921
  • Jan 28, 2015 2:27pm Jan 28, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} aaah...no more considerable time. Do you think markets will turn down for a considerable time? Doubt it.
Nope. Cos we are "patient" now... ...

BUT, for now - cookies doesn't taste that good now, huh?
Any BTFD-ers now? I mean, someone to actually buy-to-open now?
No... you are waiting for dust to settle...

and in the mean time...
Attached Image
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,922
  • Edited 4:25pm Jan 28, 2015 3:39pm | Edited 4:25pm
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Yesterday, I thought the PriceAction was forming "Bullish Pennant", but today I am not so sure
I guess I should hold off any Call Buying until we get clarity on the direction

this was unexpected especially after bullish AAPL and BA outlook. Hmmm,.. Interesting times ahead
  • #6,923
  • Jan 28, 2015 4:07pm Jan 28, 2015 4:07pm
Quoting StrayDog
BUT, for now - cookies doesn't taste that good now, huh?
You watch yerself, son. Nothin wrong with them cookies. I am sure the US indices will roar back thru the end of the week, or if not then, there's next week.

I still have FB dbl diagonal running, almost got out at the close, but in it now, watched FB sink despite beating Street estimates, now need it to bounce back to >$75 tomorrow. I need AAPL to pin right around $115-116 for a great return on the weekly diagonal I played on it. Watching /CL, new low there - a break of $44 coming and sub-$40? ...will only be possible in the next month or so, b4 seasonal demand picks up...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,924
  • Jan 28, 2015 4:26pm Jan 28, 2015 4:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Looked at platform this morning and AAPL $115/$116 (close order) had been filled yesterday at the close (for a $0.05 net gain) - which is odd because I sat there at the close and watched it expire unfilled, and late last night it showed up on the platform as an expired, unfilled order. Not sure now if I care, maybe a blessing in disguise
what a fuckup, I can not get out of my own way sometimes, it seems. No fault on the broker, they filled my close order & I netted $50....we'll see what it's worth Thur/Fri, looks like AAPL gonna sit on the sweet spot of that spread.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,925
  • Jan 28, 2015 4:31pm Jan 28, 2015 4:31pm
Quoting The Fool
I still have FB dbl diagonal running, almost got out at the close, but in it now, watched FB sink despite beating Street estimates, now need it to bounce back to >$75 tomorrow....
Zuck musta said nice words in the conf call, FB dipped to $74.20 now has come back to $75.30, I need that to continue to near the midpoint of my spread by Friday, $79-$80, but I'll take what I can get, just come on up...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,926
  • Jan 28, 2015 4:34pm Jan 28, 2015 4:34pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to fill a JNJ Feb/Feb4 $106 call calendar for $0.05 - long shot
never was close...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,927
  • Jan 28, 2015 4:36pm Jan 28, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} above trade will end up a loser, TLT does not want to come down yet
TLT will grind up until there is some actual inflation showing up in the US economy...I'm not holding my breath.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,928
  • Jan 28, 2015 4:58pm Jan 28, 2015 4:58pm
Here's the fantasy graph for the FB DD. I say fantasy because I am not sure what it will really look like by Friday, since the whole P/L construct will be subject to crashing iv of all options involved, especially the front week options. The graph shown does take that into account, up to the instant it was snapped, because I am sitting on the platform watching those iv's drop in rt. Anyway, I'll take what I can get. The trade was an $80 credit to put on, could still be a 10 bagger if FB will ease up a few bucks...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,929
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:52pm Jan 28, 2015 9:52pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ne-handle-2015

Scotiabank's Haselmann has a rep for being right about bond rate moves over the last few years, when almost everybody else has been wrong. He predicts a 1-handle print for ^TYX in 2015. It hit a new low today, dropped 11 bps to 2.29%. At this rate, 1-handle will be no problem, will be seen by March. TLT hit a new high today, of course. 30yr fixed rate mortgages should be <3.5% before Summer.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,930
  • Edited 10:45pm Jan 28, 2015 10:14pm | Edited 10:45pm
a 20 lot Feb/Feb4 $145/$146 call diagonal spread ties up $2k margin for the next 3 weeks, but offers a max P of almost $1,100 on a downside risk of $100. Upside b/e just past $147.

From the chart I see TLT puts on bullish runs of $5-$7 per week, maybe $10 in 2 weeks. I wanted to do a diagonal spread a little further out, a $146/$147, but the strikes jump from $146 to $150 in Feb4, so I will look at this trade some more b4 making it. (you could do $149/$150 for a $5 debit, puts maxP @ expiry @ $148.25...)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-01-28_tlt2.png Size: 96 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,931
  • Jan 29, 2015 12:04am Jan 29, 2015 12:04am
AMZN idea
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,932
  • Jan 29, 2015 12:43am Jan 29, 2015 12:43am
same idea for V, looks a little too tight...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,933
  • Jan 29, 2015 9:09am Jan 29, 2015 9:09am
Quoting The Fool
AMZN idea {image}
Again, filling at xxx.50 strikes is a nightmare... Trying since open, sitting at midpoint and nothing.... (want to get in Jan30 305/307.50 bear call spread...)
If I wanted to go for $5 wide, like 305/310, that would be much easier.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,934
  • Jan 29, 2015 9:29am Jan 29, 2015 9:29am
Quoting The Fool
a 20 lot Feb/Feb4 $145/$146 call diagonal spread ties up $2k margin for the next 3 weeks, but offers a max P of almost $1,100 on a downside risk of $100. Upside b/e just past $147. From the chart I see TLT puts on bullish runs of $5-$7 per week, maybe $10 in 2 weeks. I wanted to do a diagonal spread a little further out, a $146/$147, but the strikes jump from $146 to $150 in Feb4, so I will look at this trade some more b4 making it. (you could do $149/$150 for a $5 debit, puts maxP @ expiry @ $148.25...)
trying to fill the $149/$150 for $3 debit...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,935
  • Edited 9:54am Jan 29, 2015 9:37am | Edited 9:54am
I m/l need a flatline day today to get my diagonal spreads to glory on exp day tomorrow, so far so good. AAPL a bit of a problem - I need <$116, but everybody wants some after the crushing ER, may have to close early if it keeps drifting up...need a little more on FB, >$77 by tomorrow would be nice.

Sold a Jan5 SPY bear call spread (200/199.5) early for bout $0.02 net gain, thankful to get anything on it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,936
  • Jan 29, 2015 10:48am Jan 29, 2015 10:48am
Quoting StrayDog
... Again, filling at xxx.50 strikes is a nightmare... Trying since open, sitting at midpoint and nothing.... (want to get in Jan30 305/307.50 bear call spread...) If I wanted to go for $5 wide, like 305/310, that would be much easier.
OK, I am in a bearish trade on AMZN... Jan30 305/307.5 bear call spread, for 1.20 credit. ER's in AH.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,937
  • Jan 29, 2015 11:09am Jan 29, 2015 11:09am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} OK, I am in a bearish trade on AMZN... Jan30 305/307.5 bear call spread, for 1.20 credit. ER's in AH.
I may write a strangle on this later near the end of trading as there more strength coming into the market because of the $
  • #6,938
  • Jan 29, 2015 11:56am Jan 29, 2015 11:56am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} OK, I am in a bearish trade on AMZN... Jan30 305/307.5 bear call spread, for 1.20 credit. ER's in AH.
oh, man, you betting against AMZN? I buy everything there....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,939
  • Jan 29, 2015 12:23pm Jan 29, 2015 12:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} oh, man, you betting against AMZN? I buy everything there....

Yeah, good for buying stuff... (not so for me, since our customs have some "ideas" about taxes...)

Idk, seems to me it is easier for AMZN to go down than up, after earnings... Anyways, EM is about $20 or 6.5%... So it is a 50/50 bet, I expect to see price either bellow $290, or above $315... if it is going to be my desired down move, maybe even outside EM, given the overall market negative sentiment atm... QCOM and BABA really tanked. I entered position too early, because I was thinking that the stock will go down into the earnings... well...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,940
  • Jan 29, 2015 12:39pm Jan 29, 2015 12:39pm
natgas crashing, new lows on UNG....crude broke $44....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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