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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #17,361
  • Jan 28, 2015 12:33am Jan 28, 2015 12:33am
Quoting janpec1000
Infinitus i was wrong last time i contacted you regarding FF sentiment. Winning percentage is much higher. It makes whole concept of 70% geared direction much less reliable as signal, becouse actually retailers are more time correct than wrong, that ofcourse only of that study on FF sentiment. This study is not very reliable becouse it only counts in extremes, but in general thats only reliable signal fron any sentiment indicator anyways. Here is new stuff: Term for being "correct" in this analysis i used was used as DD over 150-200 pips as wrong...

Hi Jan,

thanks for the work - much apreciated

some thoughts:

a) have you used the values of "Lots" or "Traders"? It is important to use the "Traders", because it is about the collective mood of the traders and not about how deep the pockets are of a few. E.g. today I saw that one trader is allegedly short 163 Lots EU

b) it is very interesting to look not only at the extreme values, but also the positioning right after the extrema occur, say 2-4 days later. As I already said, at extreme points (price wise) the retail crowd is often right, but will lose all of their proceedings quickly after that, because they do not hold on to their positions long enough, but change positioning very quickly after initial gains

c) since your shown samples show a quiet inhomogeneous result, it would require a much larger sample size, it seems

d) is the result transferable to other currency-pairs than GU?

e) maybe we have some positive chewed bias in the FF trade explorers, since successful traders may be more inclined to show the trade explorers (survivorship bias) - maybe we should use instead of the FF trade explorers the data of Oanda, for example



Dukascopy does deliver sentiment data right into the JForex-platform. I have used it for a while, but it may be bad programmed, because it totally slows down all of my notebooks and often enough freezes the JForex platform.
  • #17,362
  • Jan 28, 2015 12:42am Jan 28, 2015 12:42am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Jan, thanks for the work - much apreciated some thoughts: a) have you used the values of "Lots" or "Traders"? It is important to use the "Traders", because it is about the collective mood of the traders and not about how deep the pockets are of a few. E.g. today I saw that one trader is allegedly short 163 Lots EU b) it is very interesting to look not only at the extreme values, but also the positioning right after the extrema occur, say 2-4 days later. As I already said, at extreme points (price wise) the retail crowd is often right,...

regarding the bias in the trade explorers:

it is clearly there, because we can see it in the gains:

example given:

EU

right now we have 602 losing shorts on EU and 262 winning shorts on EU, with average trade duration of 2 weeks.

Since more trades are bad than good, one would assume, that the gain would also be negative for this period. But it is positive with around 15% gains.


This can lead to two assumptions:

a) some good traders have placed large sell orders at the right place and have managed to stay in gains so far

b) there are so many new shorts taken right at support, and they are now deep into loss, dragging the average trade return more and more down
  • #17,363
  • Jan 28, 2015 1:06am Jan 28, 2015 1:06am
Sentiment Index:

EU: 21% bulls (well off the lows)

DXY: 83% bulls


Gold: 59%

Crude: 18%


CAD and AUD: 10%

SPX: 20%
  • #17,364
  • Jan 28, 2015 1:08am Jan 28, 2015 1:08am
For a quick view on trader positioning at various brokers see here

http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/p/sentiment.html
  • #17,365
  • Edited 3:43am Jan 28, 2015 3:30am | Edited 3:43am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Jan, thanks for the work - much apreciated some thoughts: a) have you used the values of "Lots" or "Traders"? It is important to use the "Traders", because it is about the collective mood of the traders and not about how deep the pockets are of a few. E.g. today I saw that one trader is allegedly short 163 Lots EU b) it is very interesting to look not only at the extreme values, but also the positioning right after the extrema occur, say 2-4 days later. As I already said, at extreme points (price wise) the retail crowd is often right,...
Yes results are abosuletly the same across all pairs. I did use Lots not Traders. I see your point, ill check again, reporting later.Regarding number of examples, there were 55 examples alltogether, i think its quite okay sample. Generally my rule is 100 trades proves if strategy has chance to work if its profitable then, i am pretty sure 55-100 examples wouldnt make much change in overall %. Lets see gona do new analysis.
  • #17,366
  • Edited 6:23am Jan 28, 2015 4:16am | Edited 6:23am
Checked more pairs, checked with Traders instead of lots, pretty much no difference. Same thing as expected. When it comes to 70% positioning extremes, traders are more than 50% correct, with regards to 150 pips DD as negation. Checked all pairs, confirmed, its useless signal, its no use if it doesnt have high probability.

If you look for 10+% sentiment shift in quick 5-10 candle move (h1) then it will yield better results as many times traders will position longs on tops, and shorts on bottoms, but the main point is that it still is not reliable enough to be used as signal, becouse too many times retailers will be right. So yes for me i can conclude no reliable signal/strategy can be pulled from FF sentiment data (checked all m5,h1,daily and traders/lots).
  • #17,367
  • Jan 28, 2015 6:45am Jan 28, 2015 6:45am
http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Arti...-to-Fight.aspx

When to Follow vs. When to Fight
  • #17,368
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:22am Jan 29, 2015 1:22am
EU

FXCM clients sentiment vs. Oanda clients sentiment


FXCM
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Oanda
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  • #17,369
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:37am Jan 29, 2015 1:37am
Sentiment report from Scotiabank

http://www.gfx.gbm.scotiabank.com/Chart_Feed/IMM.pdf
  • #17,370
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:11pm Jan 29, 2015 1:11pm
http://www.elliottwave.com/grpconten...t/default.aspx


Nice piece from EWI on EU

Schickeria: read what he says about sentiment

Although, as of today, there is no evidence that a bottom is in place.

The interesting thing is that now, all of a sudden, the idea of the dollar/euro parity is becoming popular. Someone at Goldman recently talked about parity by the end of 2017. The timing of this sentiment is key. It’s interesting that we see it now, after a huge decline. This is very typical! At major turning points, sentiment is supposed to be extreme. Indeed, if we look at the Daily Sentiment Index for EURUSD (trade-futures.com) it has not been unusual to see more than 90% of polled traders bearish on the euro. So the sentiment certainly fits the ending point in the price pattern.

The caveat is, we’ve been seeing such extreme euro-bearish sentiment since about September. So the sentiment is not a precise timing tool. What it does tell you, though, is that the bulk of the decline from the $1.3993 high back in May is already in place. Our wave counts agree with that, momentum signature agrees with that… This is the time when you should be expecting everyone to climb aboard the trend, and we are seeing strong signs of that, too. There is a reason why extreme sentiment signals a turning point: First the trend gets popular, then it becomes too popular, then there is no one left to buy (or sell).

Put differently, you can have an extreme sentiment without an immediate reversal, but you almost never see a reversal without extreme sentiment.
  • #17,371
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:38pm Jan 29, 2015 1:38pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Putin Pivots Back: Russia Confirms Willingness To Provide Financial Aid To Greece


  • #17,372
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:39pm Jan 29, 2015 1:39pm
and this


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Alexis Tsipras Most Outrageous Outburst Yet?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/29/2015 - 12:01
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0129_neo_0.jpg"We should not accept or recognize the government of neo-Nazis in Ukraine"
  • #17,373
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:44pm Jan 29, 2015 1:44pm
and this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Alexis Tsipras' Open Letter To Germany: What You Were Never Told About Greece


snipset:

My party, and I personally, disagreed fiercely with the May 2010 loan agreement not because you, the citizens of Germany, did not give us enough money but because you gave us much, much more than you should have and our government accepted far, far more than it had a right to. Money that would, in any case, neither help the people of Greece (as it was being thrown into the black hole of an unsustainable debt) nor prevent the ballooning of Greek government debt, at great expense to the Greek and German taxpayer.


Ups, has Europe (and maybe the rest of the world) to face common sense?

  • #17,374
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:49pm Jan 29, 2015 1:49pm
sorry, only in German

it is about Ukraine, Russia, Germany




Inserted Video
  • #17,375
  • Jan 29, 2015 2:07pm Jan 29, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting infinitus
and this: {image} Alexis Tsipras' Open Letter To Germany: What You Were Never Told About Greece snipset: My party, and I personally, disagreed fiercely with the May 2010 loan agreement not because you, the citizens of Germany, did not give us enough money but because you gave us much, much more than you should have and our government accepted far, far more than it had a right to. Money that would, in any case, neither help...
These people always make sense when they talk about austerity and appeal to the human and emotional side ...sadly the problems are not only there ...

The main problem this guy and his party has is that they cannot address the only and most important question in all this: How on earth would he had or he will do to cover the massive deficit gap?.

Austerity has been horrible to said the least but the problem remains the same. How the heck this government is going to pay their TEACHERs or Doctors next June? There (was) is nada intet nothing nichts niente , not a single penny left in cash to cover a disproportionate huge public sector with almost 0 private investment and income tax.

Sadly without loans, there is no cash, without cash there is no money to cover the same people he want to defend. The only option is making reforms to generate growth, problem was Greek politicians refused to made it on time and now there is no reforms without pain, and without pain there is no light at the end of the tunnel...

The greeks options are horrible wherever you look, but as long as their politicians don't offer an actual valid economic sustainable alternative, complaining and bitching about the "bad" germans/europeans/banks and everyone else except themselves wont help them at all in solving the real issues ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #17,376
  • Jan 29, 2015 2:19pm Jan 29, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting infinitus
sorry, only in German it is about Ukraine, Russia, Germany https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAWv...ature=youtu.be
Translated to Russian

Inserted Video


Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #17,377
  • Jan 29, 2015 4:06pm Jan 29, 2015 4:06pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Translated to Russian http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlrgA...ature=youtu.be Best, D.P.

  • #17,378
  • Jan 29, 2015 4:09pm Jan 29, 2015 4:09pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} These people always make sense when they talk about austerity and appeal to the human and emotional side ...sadly the problems are not only there ... The main problem this guy and his party has is that they cannot address the only and most important question in all this: How on earth would he had or he will do to cover the massive deficit gap?. Austerity has been horrible to said the least but the problem remains the same. How the heck this government is going to pay their TEACHERs or Doctors next June? There (was) is nada intet nothing...

That is right......, sadly....

What puzzles me is the fact, that even after years of suffering, the majority of wealthy greeks /oligarchs do not pay much of taxes. This country was/is drained to death, it seems.....
  • #17,379
  • Jan 29, 2015 4:31pm Jan 29, 2015 4:31pm
EU volume profiles
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  • #17,380
  • Jan 29, 2015 4:42pm Jan 29, 2015 4:42pm
I am starting to like this new goverment, not much from structural view on reforms as nothing has yet been shown, but just from moral view:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...s-outburst-yet
Noone else has yet called out Ukraine for what it is, Tsipras is first to do so.
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