Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 260 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,181
  • Jan 22, 2015 11:37pm Jan 22, 2015 11:37pm
Here is my Top Down analysis for GBPJPY. Advise me on any better thoughts; MONTHLY-
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WEEKLY-
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DAILY-
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L.L.L.T
  • #5,182
  • Edited 1:26am Jan 23, 2015 1:13am | Edited 1:26am
Quoting KayStreet
Here is my Top Down analysis for GBPJPY. Advise me on any better thoughts; MONTHLY-{image} WEEKLY-{image} DAILY-{image}
D1 demand areas you drew are not valid, CPs against a daily downtrend. Bias is longs but those are not valid longs, counter-trend shorts have been happening from higher. Similar on aud/jpy, cad/jpy, eur/jpy where I am short.

Once the D1 uptrend is broken, we need to wait for a WK DZ if the WK and MN are still aligned in an uptrend. D1 DZ CP you pointed it not a WK DZ. Also WK DZ is not tradable because it's not well formed. Realignment rules are super powerful, you'd be breaking the rules. This is why I'm short on Yen pairs and not long.

Take a look at EUR/JPY and compare it with GBP/JPY, you will see how those levels you drew did not hold at all. They are valid demand levels BUT they are CPs. Previous WK demand zone is got a long tail that pulled liquidity from lower, so buyers are much lower.

Hope that makes sense Kay.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,183
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:16am Jan 23, 2015 1:16am
Quoting KayStreet
Here is my Top Down analysis for GBPJPY. Advise me on any better thoughts; MONTHLY-{image} WEEKLY-{image} DAILY-{image}
Take a look at this AUD/JPY D1 short I am upon reaching valid D1 supply zone. Similar scenarios happened and continue to happen in Yen cross pairs. Aussie is very week, I'm short on it, read previous posts, JPY getting stronger, double correlation to short.

See how similar levels on AUD/JPY look to your previous GBP/JPY D1 zones, they did not gold, some on EUR/JPY where they were completely removed.

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,184
  • Jan 23, 2015 6:45am Jan 23, 2015 6:45am
My first post.
Thanks for all the good work Alfonso
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Trade what you see .
  • #5,185
  • Jan 23, 2015 7:01am Jan 23, 2015 7:01am
a/j coming into weekly supply
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Trade what you see .
  • #5,186
  • Jan 23, 2015 8:00am Jan 23, 2015 8:00am
Hi Mr AlFonso and mates, i have a BO Short on EurJpy

On Monthly we have a broken up trend, on daily we have a down trend and finaly on h4 we have a downtrend and a bar that broke a support and then i use it for a BO short, im out already for 3 to 1.

Good weeked friends.
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passion and discipline
  • #5,187
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:10am Jan 26, 2015 1:10am
Quoting dano858
My first post. Thanks for all the good work Alfonso {image}
You are welcome Dano, thanks for sharing your entry and comments on your trades my friend.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,188
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:15am Jan 26, 2015 1:15am
Quoting dano858
a/j coming into weekly supply {image}
Good spot to try a long on AUD/JPY but it's a wicky area on higher timeframes and I'm waiting for confirmation before I take any shorts.

My 2 shorts from higher hit take profit last night, too low in the WK and MN curve, so no more shorts for now. Longs could work, but waiting for confirmation. Find attached my shorts. I had other shorts from higher but I was closing them as they hit certain areas.

Now waiting, shorts disabled and waiting.

Good luck with your long Dano.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,189
  • Jan 26, 2015 9:59am Jan 26, 2015 9:59am
Dear Alfonso

Looking at the Mn chart, is the demand zone a RBR cp pattern?

Looking at it, the cp is formed by a pin bar which in your first post you mentioned that pin candles are often reaction to previous zone and thus usually are not higher odds.

Thus, though MN DZ in control now, do i suppose this DZ may not be a strong one ?

I am actually more favored of it dropping more to the next lower MN DZ drawn by Melcer before longing.

Besides, the weekly is in a downtrend. Even supposed if the pair does not drop to the next MN DZ i want, shouldn't we wait for confirmation of new uptrend to appear first in weekly chart or at least to go above last week's high before we attempt to long on daily?








Quoting panoramia
{quote} Makes sense. MN DZ is in control. Nice D1 DZ being formed at the bottom at the MN DZ retest. Wicky supply zones to the left, price could continue higher from there before it drops. Alfonso
  • #5,190
  • Jan 26, 2015 11:09am Jan 26, 2015 11:09am
Alfonso,

It is important when looking for entry from last broken zone, like for example this 4H chart on EURUSD pair.
How do I show the lately removed zones from your indicator? (pic attached)
I can draw horizontal lines on each TF on each pair by hand, but I may miss some as too many to monitor.
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Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #5,191
  • Jan 26, 2015 11:54am Jan 26, 2015 11:54am
Quoting RiverTrader
Alfonso, It is important when looking for entry from last broken zone, like for example this 4H chart on EURUSD pair. How do I show the lately removed zones from your indicator? (pic attached) I can draw horizontal lines on each TF on each pair by hand, but I may miss some as too many to monitor. {image}
RIverTrader,

I think that this is II supdem indicator made by Insanity Industries.
It has not that kind of function to show broken supply or demand levels.
  • #5,192
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:56pm Jan 26, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting melcer
{quote} RIverTrader, I think that this is II supdem indicator made by Insanity Industries. It has not that kind of function to show broken supply or demand levels.
Thanks for reply:
I have just double checked again, and I am sure this indicator on chart I showed is not II supdem indicator.

If I were not wrong, it is one of Alfonso's indicators, the zones disappeared after it is broken.
I just thought that may be able to change setting to keep the broken zone shown after it is broken.
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #5,193
  • Jan 26, 2015 2:51pm Jan 26, 2015 2:51pm
Quoting RiverTrader
{quote} Thanks for reply: I have just double checked again, and I am sure this indicator on chart I showed is not II supdem indicator. If I were not wrong, it is one of Alfonso's indicators, the zones disappeared after it is broken. I just thought that may be able to change setting to keep the broken zone shown after it is broken.
There is no setting to display broken zones sorry. I am working on one that already does that, but it will be ready in a few months. Everything takes time!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,194
  • Jan 27, 2015 8:05am Jan 27, 2015 8:05am
Quoting RiverTrader
{quote} Thanks for reply: I have just double checked again, and I am sure this indicator on chart I showed is not II supdem indicator. If I were not wrong, it is one of Alfonso's indicators, the zones disappeared after it is broken. I just thought that may be able to change setting to keep the broken zone shown after it is broken.
It's definitely II supdem indicator.

If you want I have an indicator that works way better than II supdem. It isn't based on zigzag.
Of course it shows only DBR and RBD zones and to be sure, we should all learn to draw supply demand zones manualy
but if you want to there is a function to activate zones that were taken out.


Everything on the attached picture.
Indicator attached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: picture.JPG Size: 79 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Clear method-SD.ex4   35 KB | 935 downloads
File Type: mq4 Clear method-SD.mq4   17 KB | 1,327 downloads
  • #5,195
  • Jan 27, 2015 8:12am Jan 27, 2015 8:12am
This "A" marked level is not a supply because its did not remove any opposite area or break trendline.

http://s24.postimg.org/5gth5rsh1/screenshot_408.png
screengrab

This "B: marked level also did not remove any opposite zone or break trendline but this one considered as supply level. This screenshot taken from ''Trading Forex supply and demand imbalances with the bigger picture trend - Webinar December 2014'
I am littlebit confused after seeing this, is there anything i missed ?

http://s24.postimg.org/ubcyzudb9/screenshot_409.png
screengrab
  • #5,196
  • Jan 27, 2015 11:35am Jan 27, 2015 11:35am
Quoting panoramia
Yes, I do have that D1 demand area painted, it's seen on my H4 chart with the green trendlines using my rectangle extender indicator, that's why I didn't post the D1 chart, which I have done just now on this reply. That D1 has too much trading in the zone, the only nice level I liked was that H4 demand level on my previous message. Then my next try at a long will be down lower at 91.12, a D1 demand right at Monthly Demand area.
Dear Alfonso

Pertaining to your posting on 23 May 2013 on CADJPY, can i know why you set your sight on the next long at 91.12?

I thought it should be at the yellow demand zone i drew because it was a DBR and from there, there is a great imbalance powering up.

Of course, i know these are now hindsights. but i still interested to know why you did not set your long at the yellow box at that time.

Thank you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY 24 May 2013 Alfonso.png Size: 85 KB
  • #5,197
  • Jan 27, 2015 2:07pm Jan 27, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting rickyfx
This "A" marked level is not a supply because its did not remove any opposite area or break trendline. {image} screengrab This "B: marked level also did not remove any opposite zone or break trendline but this one considered as supply level. This screenshot taken from ''Trading Forex supply and demand imbalances with the bigger picture trend - Webinar December 2014' I am littlebit confused after seeing this, is there anything i missed ? {image} screengrab
You are missing something that has been mentioned many times

A potential imbalance becomes a level once:

  1. It takes out an opposing zone
  2. It solidly breaks a trendline

You are not taking into account the second scenario, there are many trendlines you can draw in the chart, once a trendline is broken you have a level.
Hope that's clearer now
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,198
  • Edited 2:56pm Jan 27, 2015 2:42pm | Edited 2:56pm
IMPORTANT NOTICE:

Dear fellow traders,

I just wanted to let you know that Post #1 with the core set of rules for supply and demand has been updated. I highly recommend you to read Post #1 again.

This first post contains the main rules and is to be used as a reference to build your supply and demand trading plan.

What has been updated?

  1. New links to videos have been added. There are many more at the YouTube channel
  2. Definition of the trend. Consolidation, new trend and over-extension
  3. When a potential imbalance is confirmed as a level
  4. Timeframe combinations by using the sequence/realignment rules
  5. How to validate a level (new additions)
  6. Some paragraphs have been retouched

Most of your questions/doubts will be solved by reading post #1 and watching many of the videos at the YouTube supply and demand channel. If you are serious about supply and demand, take your time to read the first post several times as well as the videos. There is a lot of information and knowledge on those videos alone.

Read Post#1 here

Thanks for your support!
Night night!
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,199
  • Jan 27, 2015 2:52pm Jan 27, 2015 2:52pm
Quoting Miniforex
{quote} Dear Alfonso Pertaining to your posting on 23 May 2013 on CADJPY, can i know why you set your sight on the next long at 91.12? I thought it should be at the yellow demand zone i drew because it was a DBR and from there, there is a great imbalance powering up. Of course, i know these are now hindsights. but i still interested to know why you did not set your long at the yellow box at that time. Thank you {image}
That chart is a bit old I don't place trades at all valid levels, I place them as price progresses since the market dynamics can change. I can't tell you about that level because I would need to make a top down analysis at that moment in time to tell you, one chart is not enough. But the answer is that I place trades as market dynamics evolve, my EA takes control of that.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,200
  • Jan 27, 2015 4:47pm Jan 27, 2015 4:47pm
Quoting panoramia
IMPORTANT NOTICE: Dear fellow traders, I just wanted to let you know that Post #1 with the core set of rules for supply and demand has been updated. I highly recommend you to read Post #1 again. This first post contains the main rules and is to be used as a reference to build your supply and demand trading plan. What has been updated? New links to videos have been added. There are many more at the YouTube channel Definition of the trend. Consolidation, new trend and over-extension...
Hello alfonso and many thanks for great efforts

I have an idea to help readers catch the changes easily '' To Mark the edited parts with a different color and font''

Thanks Again
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