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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #761
  • Jan 25, 2015 10:26am Jan 25, 2015 10:26am
Quoting doerpn
Here I am.....having read through the thread completely...
Welcome to the thread Doerpn. Glad to have you aboard. Feel free to comment on anything here. It's a discussion thread.

G
  • #762
  • Jan 25, 2015 7:31pm Jan 25, 2015 7:31pm
Quoting lemna
Concerning the NZD, could its relatively high interest rate - the highest by far of all the major global currencies - be said to be a fundamental reason to look to buy it if it had started really trending up on the weekly against the USD?
Perhaps. But technically NU is mostly trending down, so I won't be taking it long anytime soon.
  • #763
  • Jan 25, 2015 7:33pm Jan 25, 2015 7:33pm
Quoting lemna
Graviton, would be really great to hear more from you about trailing stops in long duration trades. If you are taking requests I would love for you to touch on where/how to add lots, moving to BE, and bailing out within that.
I hope to get back to this subject next week, so request granted!
  • #764
  • Jan 26, 2015 2:22am Jan 26, 2015 2:22am
Hi G,

you said it has no psychological effect on you if you check fundamentals or technicals first. A similar question would be if it also does not influence you if you work from low to high time frames or high to low? The reason I ask because you said you start from the low TF's usually. Most technical analysts do the opposite way so first they see the big picture and then they work themselves down to the smaller TFs into detail.

Just wanted to know if this is any value for you or it doesn't matter at all.

Thanks,
IBO
  • #765
  • Jan 26, 2015 6:16am Jan 26, 2015 6:16am
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi G, you said it has no psychological effect on you if you check fundamentals or technicals first. A similar question would be if it also does not influence you if you work from low to high time frames or high to low? The reason I ask because you said you start from the low TF's usually. Most technical analysts do the opposite way so first they see the big picture and then they work themselves down to the smaller TFs into detail. Just wanted to know if this is any value for you or it doesn't matter at all. Thanks, IBO
Perhaps that day I was concentrating on lower timeframes for entries, or I just misspoke. I do usually start at the higher timeframes and work down. Generally, when working down the timeframes, when I come to the first trend that is opposite those above it, I'm done with that pair. I'll usually leave the chart displayed in that highest timeframe that disagrees with those above it. That makes it even faster to go back and check it later to see if it's changing.
  • #766
  • Jan 26, 2015 8:07am Jan 26, 2015 8:07am
Is the fall of the EU over? Technicals say maybe not. See the Monthly channel below. I've taken a little more than +2,500 pips profit off this one, cashing in the oldest 4 lots. Still carrying 7 lots short on it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Monthly Channel.PNG Size: 86 KB
  • #767
  • Jan 26, 2015 9:52am Jan 26, 2015 9:52am
Quoting Graviton
Is the fall of the EU over? Technicals say maybe not. See the Monthly channel below. I've taken a little more than +2,500 pips profit off this one, cashing in the oldest 4 lots. Still carrying 7 lots short on it. {image}
Hi G.,
considering the greek election yesterday the EURO will have a very hard trip to not go done furthermore, I think.
Looking at your chart....the red lines near the bottom side of the down channel.....are they TP lines?
I am very curious to hear your comment on handling trail stops ( as lemna asked) as I am still experimentalising to find the right way staying in winning trades as long as possible but not loosing to much pips if price returns.....
Need to work out clear behaviour patterns which I can be confident with ( Sorry for my partial bumpy english).
Have a nice day
  • #768
  • Jan 26, 2015 10:41am Jan 26, 2015 10:41am
Hi G.,
I took your friendly advice and looked for Forex strenght in the net. So went to this side:
[link] (Forex army)
Into my excel sheet I wrote the monthly data and discovered huge jumps between two months - even between days.
Look at my screens please. The januar data I took yesterday (excel sheet, sunday).
Today I took the screen from the homepage.
Question: how do you handle this when looking for a new pair to trade? Do you take weekly, monthly or yearly strenght data?
Thanks.
Attached Images
Have a nice day
  • #769
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:44pm Jan 26, 2015 1:44pm
[quote=doerpn;8024599]Hi G., I took your friendly advice and looked for Forex strenght in the net. So went to this side: [link] (Forex army) Into my excel sheet I wrote the monthly data and discovered huge jumps between two months - even between days. Look at my screens please. The januar data I took yesterday (excel sheet, sunday). Today I took the screen from the homepage. Question: how do you handle this when looking for a new pair to trade? Do you take weekly, monthly or yearly strenght data? Thanks...quote]

If you are new to trading, I'd suggest you keep your initial entry very simple, like only enter long if the RSI(10) is above 50% in ALL timeframes and only enter short if the RSI(10) is below 50% in ALL timeframes. Then add new lots at regularly spaced intervals, like 50, 50, 75, 75, 100 pips and every 100 pips thereafter. Use something like the Daily ATR for an initial stop and that will get you into some good trades. I'd stay away from exotic pairs. Currencies are controlled by central banks, so if you know which way the central bank is going, just trade with them. For instance, the ECB said their next move is to weaken the Euro and the US Fed said their next move is to strengthen the USD, so simply trade EU short. The Bank of Canada just lowered their interest rate, so trade UCad long. Like that. It's always safest to trade WITH the central banks. If you aren't sure what the central bank's policy is, go do some research on it. Most announce their policies these days. Usually, their last monetary move, to strengthen or weaken their currency reflects their policy. The only exception is on rare reversals, but those are usually leaked in advance as well. Best success.

G
  • #770
  • Edited 2:08pm Jan 26, 2015 1:49pm | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting doerpn
{quote} Hi G., considering the greek election yesterday the EURO will have a very hard trip to not go done furthermore, I think. Looking at your chart....the red lines near the bottom side of the down channel.....are they TP lines? I am very curious to hear your comment on handling trail stops ( as lemna asked) as I am still experimentalising to find the right way staying in winning trades as long as possible but not loosing to much pips if price returns..... Need to work out clear behaviour patterns which I can be confident with ( Sorry for...
Yes, the red lines below my EU short trades are TP lines. I always put on a wide TP, but I often take profit before it's hit. I tend to widen the TP as I trade. It's ok to widen it anytime. Sometimes a spike hits a TP for a big fast profit though. I'm happy if it does. Ignore the news. Trade central bank policy and trend and you'll be fine. Don't trail stops too close. You'll just get kicked out of good trades. The longer you are in the trade, the wider your stops should be. So, if I enter with a 75 pip stop, I probably wouldn't move the stop to break even until I am about +150. Then I'd let it widen more the longer I trade. In that case, it's very unlikely that the stop will take me out. I'd more likely exit for profit or just close out the trade in case of some big unexpected reversal. My current stops are bunched together at about 250 pips, but I'd exit with my profits before price retraced that much. I've already taken +2500 pips on that EU short trade, so I don't care if I have to exit with little profit or even BE at this point, but of course, I'd like to make another 2,500 out of it

G
  • #771
  • Jan 27, 2015 2:08am Jan 27, 2015 2:08am
Good morning Graviton,

have you ever used to COT report to confirm the ongoing trend/plot a reversal or to use it and see how the big players position themselves on the market? It can definitely help to understand market sentiment. What do you think?

IBO
  • #772
  • Jan 27, 2015 3:09am Jan 27, 2015 3:09am
Graviton, if you are making long-term entries with a 1 day ATR stop and looking to move to BE at maybe 2X daily ATR, what warning signs are you looking for to get you out of the trade early, and how do you balance that with not taking too many losses in situations where if you had sat tight it would have been OK?

I remember you mentioned before that when it looked bad on the M15 time frame, you would usually get out.
  • #773
  • Jan 27, 2015 7:31am Jan 27, 2015 7:31am
Cashing in profits today. A fantastic start to the year and just going to exit with my profits and relax a bit. Planning to attempt to increase lot size when I re-enter. That's one of the most difficult things to do. The risk is always that we make a good return at lower lot sizes, then quickly lose it back trading larger positions. It will require some extremely conservative trading for quite some time.
  • #774
  • Jan 27, 2015 7:51am Jan 27, 2015 7:51am
Quoting Graviton
Cashing in profits today. A fantastic start to the year and just going to exit with my profits and relax a bit. Planning to attempt to increase lot size when I re-enter. That's one of the most difficult things to do. The risk is always that we make a good return at lower lot sizes, then quickly lose it back trading larger positions. It will require some extremely conservative trading for quite some time.

Hi G.

EU/USD might retrace a little bit but trend is still there, we'll wait and stick to our famous rsi rule?

About USD/CAD. Most of the depreciation is due to oil crisis and IR cut. Do you think the market has fully discounted this information or the trend will keep going?

Looking also for GBP/CAD, AUD/USD and some Others. Out of JPY pairs because of a trade that now would be countertrend type.

Thanks

Bibi
  • #775
  • Jan 27, 2015 7:51am Jan 27, 2015 7:51am
Quoting IBreakOut
Good morning Graviton, have you ever used to COT report to confirm the ongoing trend/plot a reversal or to use it and see how the big players position themselves on the market? It can definitely help to understand market sentiment. What do you think? IBO
Yes, I do look at the COT report from time to time. Things like the COT and strength of currencies charts and various fundamental data reports help to clarify my macro picture of the markets. If for instance there was a large position taken by large traders that the USD would fall, and I was net long, I would have to ask what do they know that I don't? These are very large hedge funds and investment banks who must report their positions and they have lots of research ability and sometimes inside information. If my trading is diverging from there's, I at least need to ask the question why? I might decide in the end that I'm right and they are wrong. That happens at least half the time, but it prevents me from becoming myopic and missing important aspects about the market.
  • #776
  • Jan 27, 2015 7:55am Jan 27, 2015 7:55am
Quoting Graviton
Cashing in profits today. A fantastic start to the year and just going to exit with my profits and relax a bit. Planning to attempt to increase lot size when I re-enter. That's one of the most difficult things to do. The risk is always that we make a good return at lower lot sizes, then quickly lose it back trading larger positions. It will require some extremely conservative trading for quite some time.
Hi G.,
thanks for the answers and good luck !
Have a nice day
  • #777
  • Jan 27, 2015 8:17am Jan 27, 2015 8:17am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Yes, I do look at the COT report from time to time. Things like the COT and strength of currencies charts and various fundamental data reports help to clarify my macro picture of the markets. If for instance there was a large position taken by large traders that the USD would fall, and I was net long, I would have to ask what do they know that I don't? These are very large hedge funds and investment banks who must report their positions and they have lots of research ability and sometimes inside information. If my trading is diverging from...
Thanks for the answers and congrats for your great year start. Keep us updated how you cope the psychological difficulty of raising your lot sizes and what you do to keep yourself calm.

IBO
  • #778
  • Edited 9:09am Jan 27, 2015 8:48am | Edited 9:09am
Here's a list of old trader sayings I created a few years ago. Some are repetitive, some are contradictory. Perhaps worth the time to read. I'll let the reader decide. Feel free to add to the list or discuss if you like:

Gaps Usually close.
Always trade with a stop loss.
Never move a stop to stay in a trade that's going against you.
Never average down.
Always trade with the long term trend.
Cut losses short, but give your trade room to breathe.
Let profits run, but if you don't take SOME profit, you won't make any money.
The first loss is the easiest to take.
Don't trade a dead or thin market.
Be patient. Let the market tell you which way it is going to go.
Never take a flyer. No fooling around. Every pip counts.
Don't trade tired, sick, angry, or depressed.
Don't let losers languish or winners turn into losers.
Minimize risk to capital with initial tight stops and small size.
Maximize profits by taking bigger risks only with profits.
Consider trading capital sacred, but profits are for making more profits.
If a trade goes unusually in your favor, take the risk out first, then take some winnings off the table.
Use a system and don't deviate from it.
Use money management at all times.
Establish your trading plan before entering the market.
Have a plan for each trade.
Develop a worst case exit plan for each trade.
Establish entry and exit points and understand risk reward ratios.
Accept small losses as part of the game if you want to win.
Stand aside from a position, knowing you have taken a position.
Stay the course so you are around for the big moves.
Don't blame the market for your losses. You are the reason for your losses.
Do not concentrate on just making break even levels when you are losing.
Break even levels do not impact the future success of a position.
Don't liquidate a winner to keep a loser.
Develop and maintain an exit plan. Follow this plan with rigid discipline.
Remember that greed kills.
Never add to a losing position. A losing position means you were wrong.
Sustain your patience. Big moves take time to develop.
Remind yourself that there is nothing new in the markets.
Don't predetermine your profits.
Avoid techniques you don't understand.
Don't be overly curious about the why of a big move.
The key to wealth in trading is simplicity,
Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.
Beware the King Kong effect after a big win.
Most money is made sitting on your hands.
Never guess what the market will do. This is not a guessing game.
Have an open mind. Consider the opposite case. What is the trader on the other side of your trade thinking?
Have the courage of your convictions.
The correct position size seems too small to be worth the time and effort.
Concentrate on preserving capital and minimizing risk and profits will come effortlessly.
Respect but don't fear the markets. They are more powerful than any individual trader.
You aren't as good as you think you are. You are only as good as you really are.
Check the economic calender first thing each day.
The trend is your friend.
Look for multiple reasons to enter a trade.
If you don't have time, trade later. The markets aren't going anywhere.
You probably miss 1,000 good trades a day somewhere. If you worry about missing a good trade, that's a lot of worry.
Take care of your health. You can't trade if you are dead.
After a big win. Take a break and reward yourself.
After a big loss, take a break until you are completely over it.
Be cautious trading during major news.
Always allow enough time to execute your exit plan.
Buy low, sell high.
Winning traders exit their trades according to a plan. They don't wait until their stop is hit.
When a trade is going against you even a little ask yourself, knowing what you know now would you still have entered this trade? If no, exit immediately.
If you are confused about what the market is doing or why it is doing it, sit this one out.
If you doubt an entry, just wait to see if you were right.

G
  • #779
  • Jan 27, 2015 9:24am Jan 27, 2015 9:24am
Quoting lemming78
{quote} Hi G. EU/USD might retrace a little bit but trend is still there, we'll wait and stick to our famous rsi rule? About USD/CAD. Most of the depreciation is due to oil crisis and IR cut. Do you think the market has fully discounted this information or the trend will keep going? Looking also for GBP/CAD, AUD/USD and some Others. Out of JPY pairs because of a trade that now would be countertrend type. Thanks Bibi
There seems to be some weakness in the USD at the moment. Some are guessing that due to some weak fundamental data the US Fed might not raise rates in the middle of this year as previously thought. I'm not into trying to out guess the other guy. I'm just going to reduce my positions by taking some profits, rest a bit, and perhaps re-enter later.
  • #780
  • Jan 27, 2015 9:42am Jan 27, 2015 9:42am
Quoting lemna
Graviton, if you are making long-term entries with a 1 day ATR stop and looking to move to BE at maybe 2X daily ATR, what warning signs are you looking for to get you out of the trade early, and how do you balance that with not taking too many losses in situations where if you had sat tight it would have been OK? I remember you mentioned before that when it looked bad on the M15 time frame, you would usually get out.
Since these are long term trades, I'd look at situations that would invalidate the fundamental basis of the trade combined with a reversal of trend. So, for instance if the US Fed was to announce more quantitative easing or an intention to maintain low interest rates longer than previously believed, or the ECB failed to follow through with their promise of QE, that would invalidate the fundamental side of my EU short trade. If trend reversed after such a central bank policy reversal, I'd exit and take my profits to the bank.

To be honest, I have made a very healthy return off the strong dollar, weak cad, weak Euro trade over the past couple months and good returns off the weak yen for months before that. That was all done with very carefully managed risk. Now I'm tired and I need some rest. I intend to reduce my positions by taking some profit and just rest and recuperate for a bit. I'm not sure how long my R&R will last, but I'll be around to discuss items of interest. Best Success.

G
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