Trading the lines

I like to have a visual reminder.

Oh a sunday!
Well its like you can have all the indicators you want, but there is no quicker way of seeing a place to enter then this way. And then you can use it on any timeframe and any pair or instrument, just fine tune it. ALL the opurtunities arent good on ALL the timeframes, that would be just crazy.

A long road
One of the people who has inspired me the most in trading is a guy i never met, never talked to. Its 4XQ. The system looked like this:

I never was quite clear on how he used it. I still dont really know why. He seemed to say one thing and do another. But still there was something in it that seemed very logical. The idea that i took from it was to imagine the trend as those waves of colored MAs, so that the trend sort of pushed price up or down as price entered in to them and the MAs was ment to give the visual indication of in what manner.

I never seemed quite able to use it well enough though, but the approach had something very logical and and sensible about it. After i while i started seeing how there should be another force working from the opposite side. I had used this kind of thinking in other approaches. During this time, 2010-2011 i made hundreds of templates and i evaluated hundreds of approaches to trading. They where all, in general: Crap. Not even 4XQs approach was applicable.

This is my latest and probably last template with indies:



It incorporated both the rainbow idea and envelopes.

After i had used that for a while, live trading real money, i started realizing i was MAINLY looking at PA for the trades that went well. The step from that to getting rid of all of them was quite short, and probably i will NEVER go back.

Sometimes i think about this whole journey, and there are of course lots of stuff i could go into, like the time i blew 75% if my account in the summer of 2010, or the time i used Alparis shitty EAs and blew 40% i think. But i wont now, since its all just curious observations. It doesnt matter to trading really. Sometimes i think about 4XQ and the rainbow. I am sure it wasnt a step i HAD to take to get to where i am in my understanding of trading. But it was a step i ACTUALLY took. Because there wasnt anybody laying it this clearly as i am now in this thread. If there WAS somebody explaining it like this, that would have saved me and my investors A LOT of money and not to mention some 7.000 hours of screen time.

It doesnt matter if you agree or understand. Im not here to convince anybody of anything, and im not selling anything, yet. This thread will remain even AFTER i start selling things, and hopefully i wont regret it.

Because things happen the way they do, and it aint much point in regret, i guess i need to say: Thanks 4XQ, where ever you are. Not for teaching me how to trade profitably, that i teached myself because noone else seem to know how to do it. But at least for giving me a hand. Then here are other people like SKFX, that probably didnt like how i answered his query earlier, and i knew that would be the reaction. Yet i did it, because i was being honest. SKFX gave me a hand along the way, and maybe Forexcube did to in his own curious way. But the important thing is: None of them taught me how to trade. None of the systems i looked at was any good.

Maybe sort of James 16 thread and maybe sort of couple of other threads gave a hand, but to me, none if it is good enough. At least not how it is explained.

I am what ever i say i am. If i wasnt, why would i say i am? I am honest. Im not selling anything. Yet.

Probably what i will be selling is simply support to understand what i have been on about since i started this thread. Not some strange thing or "edge" or what ever. Its ALL IN HERE. It just that maybe some people want to meet me face to face or something. I dunno. I sure would like to talk trading instead of having a boring dayjob until Alpari gimme back my friggin money. But i guess im not much of sales person. I just hate salespeople. Im an analyst sort of person. Not some blabbermouth. Though i talk more and faster then most people. Probably because im interested in a lot more stuff then people normally are. Well anyway, i will shut up and you can go back to doing what ever it was you where doing.

Dropped these in E/U thread. Might as well drop em here too.

Is there a mechanical/objective/mathematical way of defining important levels?
If you graph any natural system, patterns emerge.
And so:



Can i define what makes me put these lines where i do and use them for anything that matters in reality?
Did i see these lines before days ago?
Am i an idiot?
Why is life so hard that it often hardly seem worth it?
My son learned how to walk today.

Hi yaed;

I've been working on the same sort of things.

I think a good starting point is to be consistent in the selection process.

Congratulations on your son taking his first steps, it's a very special time they grow so fast.

Well, about the question in your last chart: Yeah i think higher TFs matter when trading lower ones. Time is a continuos flow. Our minds seem much alike. Never really thought about making boxes like that for the periods that did not go with the general trend. An interesting idea.

Right now im thinking:

Hi yaed;

I've only recently started marking Weeks like this.

I've found it helps to, not only, identify Trend Continuation but also Trend Reversals.

Wether the Market Breaks with the Trend or Counter Trend I wait for the Test and Price Action at the Weekly Breakout before thinking of taking a Trade.

Hi yaed;

This is how I would be looking at those Weeks that fail be make a Lower Low in a Bearish Market.

I will mull this over in my head for a few days i think.

Hi yaed;

I'll be interested to hear your thoughts when you are ready, two heads are better than one.

I thought about it. Well, seeing as price dont return to these hesitant days, thats one way of defining the down trend. If it DID come back there and maybe even go through the other way, that would be a nice defenition of the down trend ending.

As we are in the fifth such consequitively down broken area, well lets just give it 80% chance (4 out of 4 so far, and if the 5th dont break down that is 80% of the broken down ) that it will break. So if this was to be traded, either we could use a tight SL and put it just at the break north of the blue box, or play it low leverage, high TF and put it at the around either the low of the box before it at around 1.543 or at the north side of that box at 1.1648 ish.

A thought to throough into that mix is this one: Since we are headed down real hard, if we go up its probably going to be real hard. Like if we have a look at the 7th of May when this down trend started, there was litteraraly NO buying. So thinking like this, once we turn this around, its going to be hard and fast. So maybe a tight stop would be better?

Fuck the statistics. PA is king.
You want to be a sucker or you want to make some stacks of doe?

Where do you set your Stop Loss on these Trades?

Hi yaed;

Hope you don't mind here's my take on the quick transition from Bullish to Bearish control in May 2014.

Look out also for Monthly Candles that fail to make New Highs or New Lows.

I wasnt trading in May. I was on stage or there about. But 7th of may its a crucial turning point so i have been mulling it over in my head 30-40 times from different points of analysis.

Wow i hadnt thought about the fail to make a new high/low on monthly. I will stare at that some when my boring day job allows it and see what the importance of it seem to be at other times.