The Fed and RBNZ interest rate war | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Interest Rate and interest Rates Differentials 11 replies

FED interest rate historical data 2 replies

RBNZ Interest Rate Statement 31 replies

The Fed and RBNZ interest rate war

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 26, 2015 12:52am Jan 26, 2015 12:52am
The Fed and Royal Bank of New Zealand are going to release interest rate decisions this week.

The Fed may have been planing to raise interest rates this year, but I can't see them raising in the near future.

New Zealand could be the next ones to cut interest rates. I don't think many are expecting the US to cut rates.
  • #2
  • Jan 26, 2015 2:01am Jan 26, 2015 2:01am
NZ won't be cutting rates, now or in the foreseeable future. It's disinflation is entirely imported - all other indicators show NZ's economy to be incredibly strong, meaning inflation can rise very fast if interest rates are even a little low. RBNZ fears runaway inflation more than any other central bank.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #3
  • Jan 26, 2015 6:19am Jan 26, 2015 6:19am
Quoting numbnuts
NZ won't be cutting rates, now or in the foreseeable future. It's disinflation is entirely imported - all other indicators show NZ's economy to be incredibly strong, meaning inflation can rise very fast if interest rates are even a little low. RBNZ fears runaway inflation more than any other central bank.
Good information for reference!
waiting for your further information soon.
  • #4
  • Jan 26, 2015 7:03am Jan 26, 2015 7:03am
Let's abstain from trading NZD until their bank release. Conversely I expect endorsement in their credit policy on the background of strengthening US dollar. Waiting for the outcome.
  • #5
  • Jan 29, 2015 4:40am Jan 29, 2015 4:40am
"The Fed and RBNZ interest rate war" - Much better than whatever I originally called this thread.


RBA & BoE next week.

RBA expected to keep rate on hold @ 2.5 until cut in April.

BoE expected to keep rates on hold @ 0.5. -But looking to hike at signs of inflation overshooting target of 2% by 2016 (currently 0.5%)


wait - maybe I should start a new thread called "the RBA and BoE interest rate war"?
  • #6
  • Feb 1, 2015 5:59am Feb 1, 2015 5:59am
Interesting read by Michael Hewson suggesting RBA may cut interest rates this week.
  • #7
  • Feb 1, 2015 7:47am Feb 1, 2015 7:47am
Something I dont understand. Before 2015, most economists forecasting a RBA rates hike, but now changing their views.

http://mobile.news.com.au/finance/ec...-1227142047921

If RBA lower rates, isnt that discourage the holding of Aud?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...stralia-credit
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #8
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:34pm Feb 1, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting kinspk
Something I dont understand. Before 2015, most economists forecasting a RBA rates hike, but now changing their views. http://mobile.news.com.au/finance/ec...-1227142047921 If RBA lower rates, isnt that discourage the holding of Aud? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...stralia-credit
Yeah because the Australian economy is not doing so hot right now due to the huge disinvestment in its mining sector which makes up a large part of the Australian economy. Australia was doing very well before is because 1) US economy was in s***hole so everybody was buying gold and Australia has a huge gold mines and 2) China's economy is fast booming and hence its seemingly insatiable appetite for metal raw materials. Neither of these are true right now, relatively speaking hence down Australia's economy and no more talks of RBA rate hikes.

If it keeps up like this, I wouldn't be surprised if RBA announces a rate cut as it currently still has the second highest central bank interest rate next to New Zealand, another resource economy, among all the G7 nations.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #9
  • Feb 10, 2015 2:42am Feb 10, 2015 2:42am
Riksbank interest rate decision Thursday.

I'd be wary of a cut; - ie. I wouldn't be short USDSEK or EURSEK when that's due.
  • #10
  • Sep 7, 2015 8:23pm Sep 7, 2015 8:23pm
Kiwi ----> 60 cents

How much of the coming RBNZ interest rate decision is already factored into the price? Vast majority of analysts expect quarter basis point cut this month and another quarter basis cut in October.
But why dose Graeme Wheeler want to draw things out & wait until October?
Just knock inflation woes on the head and cut by half a basis point in September.
  • #11
  • Sep 7, 2015 9:00pm Sep 7, 2015 9:00pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...join-the-party
  • #12
  • Sep 7, 2015 9:07pm Sep 7, 2015 9:07pm
Quoting BubaYaga
Kiwi ----> 60 cents How much of the coming RBNZ interest rate decision is already factored into the price? Vast majority of analysts expect quarter basis point cut this month and another quarter basis cut in October. But why dose Graeme Wheeler want to draw things out & wait until October? Just knock inflation woes on the head and cut by half a basis point in September.
its called being prudent. central banks only have that many bullets when it comes to decreasing rates. sometimes you dont have to fire too many bullets at once as other central banks might do the job for you, as we can see the divergence between the fed and rbnz. even if rbnz doesnt cut and fed raises, kiwi will still trend lower. and besides they too have to juggle with soaring property prices. cant afford to tip the scale too quickly.
  • #13
  • Last Post: Sep 9, 2015 2:04am Sep 9, 2015 2:04am
I'm even a bit worried they won't drop at all.
After China GDP yesterday I shorted the kiwi balls deep.
I have a niggling fear in the back of my head the RBNZ will keep rates on hold as the 28.4% devaluation of it's currency against the greenback from 88cents to 63 is inflationary in itself.
Anyway, not long now.....
0 traders viewing now