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  • #6,821
  • Jan 24, 2015 2:52pm Jan 24, 2015 2:52pm
Hm not like I was a chartist but if you send me timeserie in *.xls,csv,txt format, think I can write a VBA script to insert whatever form of ATR you wish to put into chart. Not like it had any use in intraday trading
Edit: Can send you script when done, so you can be inserting your own timeseries.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,822
  • Jan 24, 2015 2:53pm Jan 24, 2015 2:53pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
It is such a big move in Europe, am very sure it attracts foreign investors. And if they want to invest within Eurozone, they first need to buy some Euros. If smart, the´r gonna wait after Greece dust settles and then it is gonna be bomb.
I have had this in mind, Tom. I'm not completely convinced, but I have been thinking that potential is real. I've got trades short euro, m/l, and I was waiting to see if the Greek drama would help them, but also thinking it might be a good time to get out. We'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,823
  • Jan 24, 2015 2:56pm Jan 24, 2015 2:56pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hm not like I was a chartist but if you send me timeserie in *.xls,csv,txt format, think I can write a VBA script to insert whatever form of ATR you wish to put into chart. Not like it had any use in intraday trading Edit: Can send you script when done, so you can be inserting your own timeseries.
hey, thanks, I could do that too, but I'm lazy & you can kind of eyeball it with price & absolute ATR on the same chart.

Have a good weekend, bud - I gotta get some bills paid.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,824
  • Jan 24, 2015 10:56pm Jan 24, 2015 10:56pm
risk $100 to make $940 on a big retrace of the SBUX ER pop, ok if you don't get all of that
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,825
  • Jan 25, 2015 12:36am Jan 25, 2015 12:36am
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/0...n_6539364.html
"Syriza officials have said they would seek a six-month "truce" whereby the bailout program would be put on hold while talks with creditors begin. However, they face stiff resistance from the rest of Europe, raising the specter of Greece being forced out of the euro if no agreement is reached."

I don't see any way up for the euro if this is the path. The mess drags out for months, lots of volatility, equities bounce up and down, but finally the Grexit kills the bull market run and fiber breaks parity before the Solstice.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,826
  • Jan 25, 2015 1:02am Jan 25, 2015 1:02am
http://ir.fxcm.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=892716

I don't really have any idea if FXCM can ever regain its former share price. I'd bet it will creep back up though, how far and how fast a shot in the dark. Options are liquid, cheap calendars there if you want some. Mar/May $5 call calendar ridiculous $7 profit range $2.35 to $9.35. 1,000's of each were traded Friday. If I can get filled at $0.05 I am gonna buy a good little pile....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,827
  • Jan 25, 2015 1:09am Jan 25, 2015 1:09am
Quoting The Fool
If I can get filled at $0.05 I am gonna buy a good little pile....
Whoa, careful, Fool --- check the huge IV on those $5 calls. As share price movement settles down that will fall off drastically. Maybe that's what you should try to capitalize on?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-01-24_fxcm2.png Size: 18 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,828
  • Edited 1:43am Jan 25, 2015 1:17am | Edited 1:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Whoa, careful, Fool --- check the huge IV on those $5 calls. As share price movement settles down & we string out some daily bars IV will fall off drastically. Maybe that's what you should try to capitalize on?
Mar/Aug $6/$7.5 gets on for just comms (maybe) but ties up some margin, gets you 5 months of spread play on the Aug $7.50 calls for free, though....

I have become a real stingy mofo with my margin....prolly cuz I don't hardly have none
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,829
  • Jan 25, 2015 1:50am Jan 25, 2015 1:50am
Gold bull why?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,830
  • Jan 25, 2015 6:15am Jan 25, 2015 6:15am
Quoting The Fool
risk $100 to make $940 on a big retrace of the SBUX ER pop, ok if you don't get all of that {image}
like this trade
  • #6,831
  • Jan 25, 2015 6:17am Jan 25, 2015 6:17am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} SLB, yes CG, I see lots of big candles at the open....looks like SLB might want to drop back into the $70's, we will see what crude wants to do...how are you scalping it? {image}
I'm just charting this intraday to make my decisions along with watching open interest change
  • #6,832
  • Jan 25, 2015 6:21am Jan 25, 2015 6:21am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} So when you screen for ATR, you will pick up stocks that have just been thru high vol events (ER's, typically) - you can stretch out the number of daily bars to smooth the high-vol influences, though. OTOH, looking at stocks that have just been thru large 1-directional moves is one way to find cheap weekly vertical spread opps. I know, I saw the TT study where they showed that usually, stocks will not revert after large ER moves. However, sometimes they do, and you might not need to get much of a reversion to...
look for the ones that used to have a $5 wide strike range then it goes to $2.50 strike range and now $1 strike range but maintains its stock price and daily range through the changes, GS will be the next one, patiently waiting for that one as GS is the stock that can change ones life
  • #6,833
  • Jan 25, 2015 6:30am Jan 25, 2015 6:30am
Quoting The Fool
lol, Good graphic - short the EU, got it. I don't know what to expect, but my gut is that the market is in the mood for some time at the feeding trough. Pity if Greece spoils the meal...
start looking for cheap call leap options year out or even two years for the Euro because if is to bounce it will be soon as we're getting close to parity with the USD, two years may be better as everyone and there mothers are shorting this. Look for large option volume blocks coming in FXE
  • #6,834
  • Jan 25, 2015 6:43am Jan 25, 2015 6:43am
Quoting The Fool
Here's a SLB weekly vertical bear put spread - risk $0.02 to make max $0.48, b/e at $79.40....will see if it's there on Monday, but something similar will be, getting filled on something like this for $0.02 might be a dream, but surely fill @ < $0.05. Defined risk, no margin hit, huge upside, what's not to love? SLB lt $82.00... {image}
if you can find that kind of trade for the upside to where you risk a tiny amount but could make multiple returns then you have found a trade pays you well either way after all comms are taken out because of the huge R-R
  • #6,835
  • Jan 25, 2015 12:19pm Jan 25, 2015 12:19pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} look for the ones that used to have a $5 wide strike range then it goes to $2.50 strike range and now $1 strike range but maintains its stock price and daily range through the changes, GS will be the next one, patiently waiting for that one as GS is the stock that can change ones life
Hey Cecil, good to see you. If you want tight strikes on high priced stocks, the choices are few - SPY is the first that comes to mind, SPY trading > $200 but still has $0.50 strikes. You can get in weekly verticals for cheap on SPY, but the value trap is there - you can't usually win the far otm 9x return type set-ups. But you can do well enough if your directional calls are good.

Trade below is a $202.5/$202.00 vert bear put spread for Friday expiry, risks $0.11, needs SPY to drop to <$202 for a good profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,836
  • Jan 25, 2015 9:41pm Jan 25, 2015 9:41pm
Quoting The Fool
If you want tight strikes on high priced stocks, the choices are few -
What are they, Foo? What "expensive" stocks/etfs have $0.50 strikes, good volume? SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA, TLT, GLD, FXE, XOM, SBUX, JNJ, PG....that's it for names priced @ > $85 or so....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,837
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:00am Jan 26, 2015 1:00am
Hi Fool.
I see that you have quite an experience with trading options. What books would you recommend for an absolute beginner?
Cheers
  • #6,838
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:46am Jan 26, 2015 1:46am
Quoting xy76
Hi Fool. I see that you have quite an experience with trading options. What books would you recommend for an absolute beginner? Cheers
Check out the basics options materials at dough.com and also the Education tab on the CBOE website. If you get through that stuff check back in and I will show some book titles.

https://beta.dough.com/demo#/learn

http://www.cboe.com/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,839
  • Jan 26, 2015 5:47am Jan 26, 2015 5:47am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} look for the ones that used to have a $5 wide strike range then it goes to $2.50 strike range and now $1 strike range but maintains its stock price and daily range through the changes, GS will be the next one, patiently waiting for that one as GS is the stock that can change ones life
BABA?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,840
  • Jan 26, 2015 5:53am Jan 26, 2015 5:53am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/0...n_6539364.html "Syriza officials have said they would seek a six-month "truce" whereby the bailout program would be put on hold while talks with creditors begin. However, they face stiff resistance from the rest of Europe, raising the specter of Greece being forced out of the euro if no agreement is reached." I don't see any way up for the euro if this is the path. The mess drags out for months, lots of volatility, equities bounce up and down, but finally the Grexit kills the bull...
Yeah, but IF the European stock market is going to rise, thanks to the "big bazooka", you need euros for it. US Market doesn't have QE anymore (well... for the moment), plus expensive US Dollar, plus higher valuations than in EU... this can lift EUR. DAX is rising today, EUR also atm. Greek story is a very old one, I personally don't know wtf EU didn't just kick their asses out of EU and EMU long time ago, but nothing new is there.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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