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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #51,681
  • Edited Jan 24, 2015 3:29am Jan 23, 2015 5:27pm | Edited Jan 24, 2015 3:29am
http://naturalcuresnotmedicine.com/w...urder-suicide/

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  • #51,682
  • Jan 24, 2015 12:14am Jan 24, 2015 12:14am
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@FTI & all, my thoughts about yesterdays..

In this month, I feel like I understand alot more, and the fear will naturally creep in. The fear and feel of a rogue wave hitting, the before and during and after.. It is something to be remembered and thankful for.. Experiences in this month, I am lucky to be able to saw it in the charts, when it happen, and experience the emotions/feelings that is going on.

I look to MO to pull and steer me clear, like the ships, the capital, but at the end of the day, it is the captain, it is me. I am given the chance in deciding if I wish to sail in the waters, to thrust above the wave, the maintain, to maneuver, or to head in the opposite direction and try to out run it before it comes.. MO is really of utmost importance, how the deployment goes, the execution, the patience, the fear & greed, the killing, the blood

The water may be calm, but pulling out... abnormalities like yesterday events were overlooked, complacency.. and a what was actually a chance, but due to a lack of agility in mind, was a tsunami for a -4% dd .. The captain me, is definitely angry, frustrated. But humbled that it is a position that is still doable and cut-able should I feel best.

In this New Year, till date, lessons are in abundance, and the year have just started, I wish & pray for myself and all, for guidance, and agility. For health, courage and strength.. to flow and be clear and sharp.

I will once again, disappear and lurk.. learning continues as always.

To live, to learn, to flow better.


Regards,
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #51,683
  • Jan 24, 2015 12:28pm Jan 24, 2015 12:28pm
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  • #51,684
  • Jan 24, 2015 11:00pm Jan 24, 2015 11:00pm
good day frens. something for laugh, apologies my english speaking frens

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152658507317406
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,685
  • Edited 5:12am Jan 26, 2015 4:01am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting RelaxRay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLzgzvVxUV4 @FTI & all, my thoughts about yesterdays.. In this month, I feel like I understand alot more, and the fear will naturally creep in. The fear and feel of a rogue wave hitting, the before and during and after.. It is something to be remembered and thankful for.. Experiences in this month, I am lucky to be able to saw it in the charts, when it happen, and experience the emotions/feelings that is going on. I look to MO to pull and steer me clear, like the ships, the capital, but at the end of the...
noted.
no worries.
slow easy and steady as she goes.

good luck my friend.

regards

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  • #51,686
  • Edited 7:10am Jan 26, 2015 6:33am | Edited 7:10am
http://9gag.com/gag/azLNpyZ

anyone on hotseat?
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,687
  • Jan 26, 2015 7:17am Jan 26, 2015 7:17am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hey cookie, good day to you i have been busy at my day job. how is it going for you?
hi Jacque, great to see u, doing ok myself

been looking at funky price action on the audusd, 2 correlations from jpy and commodities making audusd look really weird and whipsawy.
  • #51,688
  • Edited 7:37am Jan 26, 2015 7:21am | Edited 7:37am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi Jacque, great to see u, doing ok myself been looking at funky price action on the audusd, 2 correlations from jpy and commodities making audusd look really weird and whipsawy.
no look euro?
mkt feels dead, us already open??

aud illiquid at this hour leh
yea, something cooking in yen pairs, some one selling jpy?

election over, probably outflow from safehaven
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,689
  • Jan 26, 2015 7:28am Jan 26, 2015 7:28am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} no look euro?
haha, got look at euro, but i feel more intune with audusd during the qe, and since i can use more margin with audusd, i can sharpen my mo abit, and skew my attack size abit more so used audusd, i think for margin 1.25x audusd = 1x eurusd or something

well jpy has some movement, long a scout in it.

though i feel like something is going on in the market's undercurrents, jpy crosses are too correlated, wonder if the yen carries are active in the markets currently, especially since greece's election.
  • #51,690
  • Jan 26, 2015 7:40am Jan 26, 2015 7:40am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} no look euro? mkt feels dead, us already open?? aud illiquid at this hour leh yea, something cooking in yen pairs, some one selling jpy? election over, probably outflow from safehaven
ah, i trade aud and jpy in morning, and eur and jpy at night for afternoon and night.

well, maybe afew people are still waiting for the results, let the dust settle, then move in, either that, or something big is cooking.
  • #51,691
  • Edited 8:37am Jan 26, 2015 7:51am | Edited 8:37am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} ah, i trade aud and jpy in morning, and eur and jpy at night for afternoon and night. well, maybe afew people are still waiting for the results, let the dust settle, then move in, either that, or something big is cooking.
you converted full time trader?

tks headsup , cable tmr have gdp

euro seems wwant test 00

i am bad boy tonight, dancing with 3 pairs

okok, broke up with 2 pairs. now left 1 pair
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,692
  • Jan 26, 2015 7:56am Jan 26, 2015 7:56am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} you converted full time trader?
nop, i just monitor from time to time, and i kind of reduce my exposure by alot during the day where i might have oversight, so i only trade mark up and mark down moves and ignore rangy moves, only at night when im free i have my usual size.

actually, wednesday/thursday got fomc, maybe everyone waiting for that.

recently i have been thinking about the 3 kingdoms, it was interesting though as to how the 3 kingdoms relate to mean reverting traders doing arbitrage and how it relates to options and black scholes, i wonder if arbitrage is really as safe as it sounds, but it seems when correlation tears, it should provide an insight into fundamentals which are changing, and may provide a good divergence trade.
  • #51,693
  • Jan 26, 2015 8:43am Jan 26, 2015 8:43am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} nop, i just monitor from time to time, and i kind of reduce my exposure by alot during the day where i might have oversight, so i only trade mark up and mark down moves and ignore rangy moves, only at night when im free i have my usual size. actually, wednesday/thursday got fomc, maybe everyone waiting for that. recently i have been thinking about the 3 kingdoms, it was interesting though as to how the 3 kingdoms relate to mean reverting traders doing arbitrage and how it relates to options and black scholes, i wonder if arbitrage is really...
ok i almost done with dancing. actually hor "mean reverting traders doing arbitrage", arbitrage means mispricing in two places and then taking the opportunity to instantly to make free money risklessly. then mean reverting is traders fading extended move from the avg. these two looks like no link leh.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,694
  • Jan 26, 2015 9:22am Jan 26, 2015 9:22am
aiyo this cable impulse up, too tempting not trade and go slp. now i cant slp

upwedge, anyone saw?

second wave already

i out first wave just now
aiya, think i just leave small overnight
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,695
  • Jan 26, 2015 3:47pm Jan 26, 2015 3:47pm
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...-base-28489927
  • #51,696
  • Jan 26, 2015 6:04pm Jan 26, 2015 6:04pm
Haizz ... this month not beri good for me

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  • #51,697
  • Edited 2:07am Jan 27, 2015 1:14am | Edited 2:07am
Quoting trad8
Haizz ... this month not beri good for me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnQZ5AHUk2U
yes,since i started watch markets in 2014 dec. although analysis can still be done on the 5 min bars, seems the decision making need go higher time frames already.
also the tradable impulse range is become to 30-40 pips instead of 10.
Note the change pls.

In fact i not feel need to trade , maybe until after CNY.
They can wait in hunger. Now just hold fully backed purchases.
The algo tried get my account stops, so i put a little more $ in to broker from main account to sustain the volitility.
I hope i not live to regret that.
Regret that after dying is ok.
anyway CNY coming , no talk dying.

regards

respect your ancestors that your years maybe long on earth.....jesus.

peeps no respect their parents, they ain't worth shit.......fti.
Peeps no love their brothers as themselves, they also ain't worth shit.
Whats the worth of cain and abel to you?

Some things , it has no price.
Honour, love and trustworthyness, is priceless.
One can know a tree by its fruits.
Places no have these ,then they need learn.
Is ok, God will teach them, I not god.
The power, glory and kingdom, is all God's. I chose never rebel God.
Who can be greater than the one created everything.
One only has small time window, use wisely.
The Fact the one only have small time window, tells everything of what one is.
Just like in markets.


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  • #51,698
  • Jan 27, 2015 2:28am Jan 27, 2015 2:28am
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  • #51,699
  • Jan 27, 2015 5:54am Jan 27, 2015 5:54am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} ok i almost done with dancing. actually hor "mean reverting traders doing arbitrage", arbitrage means mispricing in two places and then taking the opportunity to instantly to make free money risklessly. then mean reverting is traders fading extended move from the avg. these two looks like no link leh.
yep, because i had an encounter, i went for an interview once with a proprietary trading firm, it seems they say they are doing arbitrage strategies, and it turns out to be statistical arbitrage, and that day itself was the snb eurchf peg lift. so it kind of made me wonder if trading mean-reversion is taking alot of risk with low probability for stable, frequent and average returns, because when they tear because the fundamentals change (say 90% of the time the pair is mean reverting but 10% it does not revert and the volatility between the pair tears greatly), if they are trading the 90% segment, what happens when they hit 10% of the statistics and cannot find liquidity to get out like in the eurchf peg lift, and won't their action actually cause the volatility to exacerbate even further and take out alot of people together with stop cascading?

also, when we see correlations tear and not revert, perhaps something on the fundamental front is changing, and therefore, the information might be on the tape sooner than it might appear on the news, hence, we might be quicker than the crowd in getting information, like in the audusd and nzdusd and cadusd pair, they used to be correlated, until recently, audusd feels like there are many different forces affecting it, apart from the commodity relations, perhaps carry relations from other currencies are kicking in too.
  • #51,700
  • Edited 6:44am Jan 27, 2015 6:21am | Edited 6:44am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} yep, because i had an encounter, i went for an interview once with a proprietary trading firm, it seems they say they are doing arbitrage strategies, and it turns out to be statistical arbitrage, and that day itself was the snb eurchf peg lift. so it kind of made me wonder if trading mean-reversion is taking alot of risk with low probability for stable, frequent and average returns, because when they tear because the fundamentals change (say 90% of the time the pair is mean reverting but 10% it does not revert and the volatility between...
i not know how to say.
but is thoughts like this gets peeps killed in markets.
total and uter confusion.

You don't understand bias thinking?
Just observe and follow. is so dang hard.
Is either you trigger on his ass or you swing wide and run.
you want win everytime you best have you numbers right.
You cannot expect get in right position everytime.
Is what you do when you detect someone on your ass that saves you butt.

Once detected , you swing wide and start dumping to regroup resources.
observing on the turn ram the run.


regards

and you not understand arbitrage.
arbitrage is have back to back scalp.
what's the arbitrage you talking about?
How does one arbitrage an event run?
seriously what arbitrage strategies you talking about?
When a run of any sort happens all arbitrgers duck/or hands off, what you doing, arbitrage in runs?
In runs any arbitrager caught will jettison load.
and regroup in another zone.

arbitragers with no reserves regroup , or no huge resources they just kaput.
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