Trend/Breakout Trading with Bullbear80

Ok, so this morning I wont be placing any new trades, so I will document some recent openings:

Silver

This trade was taken for the same reason as my earlier Gold trade (see post 57). A bottom-out pattern (Inverse H&S) had formed and completed, but as I was already exposed to Gold, I waited one week longer to place this trade. That gave me time to adjust my Gold stop to breakeven. I could now proceed to take a Silver Long.

B/S: Buy
Price: 17.983
S/L: 16.944
Risk: 2.0%
Open date: 01/20/2015
Close Date:
Profit / Loss:

USD/CAD

This trade is a continuation of the closed out trade dated 01/21/2015 (see post 59). After the BOC's shock decision to lower interest rates, USD/CAD rose dramatically. I took the opportunity to lock in profits and re-positioned myself just above the close. The trade triggered yesterday and the long term northerly trend continues.

B/S: Buy
Price: 1.2371
S/L: 1.2165
Risk: 2.0%
Open date: 01/22/2015
Close Date:
Profit / Loss:

EUR/JPY

This trade was taken as a contuation of my previous short in this pair (see post 58). My previous trade had followed a H&S reversal until completion before reaching a strong support level around 136.00. After the support was broken, I wanted to confirm it had switched to a respected resistance and then I positioned for a further short. It's important to note that all my trades are taken after breaching the 21/52 day highs/lows which are my most basic entry criteria. Breakouts or trends must be pushing thru these levels. Big news such as the QE in Europe, whilst I find important, has to respect what I'm seeing on the charts. Otherwise the longer term goals will not be achieved.

B/S: Sell
Price: 134.655
S/L: 137.535
Risk: 2.0%
Open date: 01/22/2015
Close Date:
Profit / Loss:

EUR/GBP

This pair had been ranging since July '14 and if you read thru my journal, you will see that I have been stopped out on more than one occasion trying to trade it. However, at the end of December, the pair eventually broke south in continuation of a long term southerly move. We are still at a major monthly support level, so it remains to be seen if this breakout will develop into a solid move without stopping me out. I will be paying close attention to this one.

B/S: Sell
Price: 0.7593
S/L: 0.7693
Risk: 1.3%
Open Date: 01/22/2015
Close Date:
Profit / Loss:

GBP/AUD

This trade is a step away from my usual entry points. As mentioned previously, I am currently studying chart patterns and various price action moves to these patterns. On the monthly chart a bottom arc can be seen, long completed and a subsequent consolodation area which appears now to be coming to an end. A breakout to the north is presenting. Below I have plotted three trend lines, the bottom being the most significant, the middle being of secondary importance (and the trendline I'm following), and the top trend line, already breached and of minor importance for now. There is a resistance area approaching around the 1.9300 level and if this can be breached, there is plenty of scope for decent gains.

B/S: Buy
Price: 1.8711
S/L: 1.8365
Risk: 1.5%
Open Date: 01/21/2015
Close Date:
Profit / Loss:

A great personal milestone has been reached today. I finally broke thru 33.3% on my account after seven months of slogging it out. Pat on the back for myself!

Roll on 50%

Have a great weekend folks!!
Bullbear

TRADE COMPLETION: LOSS 1.8%

****refer to post 61****

Silver

B/S: Buy
Price: 17.983
S/L: 16.944 (adjusted to 17.083)
Risk: 2.0%
Open date: 01/20/2015
Close Date: 01/29/2015
Profit / Loss: -1.8%

Conclusion: A well executed trade. This trade was taken after a bottom pattern had been identified and a reversal was in progress. The price had broken thru both the 21 and 52 day highs. The trade failed to break further north but did respect the trendline until today when volatile selling pushed the price down thru the support and thru my stop to 16.700. Previously, I had adjusted my stop loss for risk management purposes. I still believe Silver will be heading north and I will position to get back in if I can find a viable buy price. This was a good trade, bad result.

TRADE COMPLETION: GAIN 0.9%

****refer to post 57****

Gold

B/S: Buy
Price: 1241.05
S/L: 1201.77
Risk: 2%
Open date: 01/13/2015
Close Date: 01/29/2015
Profit / Loss: +0.9%

Conclusion: This was a well executed trade. An inverse H&S had been identified and a reversal was in progress when this trade was taken. The trade had broken thru the 21 / 52 day highs and an upward trend had been established. This trade was allowed to breakeven before I took a similar Silver trade. The trailing stop had moved to 1256.49 (10 day low) and the same volatile selling that knocked out my Silver for a loss, knocked out my Gold for a gain. I am still bullish on Gold and expect to get back into this market in the near future. Again, a good trade, but an early exit.

Ok today we will be looking at the technical forecast for USD/JPY.

A quick review of the monthly chart will reveal that this pair has been in a Bull trend since October 2012. We are now closing in on the previous high set in 2007 around the 124.00 range.

Viewing the weekly chart, the pair range traded from January 2014 until September 2014, between the support at 100.00 and resistance at 103.00. The resistance was finally broken and the upward trend continued until the recent high at 121.83

Finally we will take a look at the daily chart where I'll be positioning from. The pair entered into a range in mid-December 2014 and as this consoldation period has continued, the range has steadily contracted. We have supports at 117.23 and 115.81 and resistance levels at 118.80 and 120.66. A symmetrical triangle has formed. This pattern is virtually complete and a breakout is imminent. Whether this results in a continuation of the Bull trend or a move into Bear territory, we will continue to monitor. I am positioned Long on the 21 day high at 120.22 and positioned Short at the 21 day low of 115.89. In the case of a continuation, I will have a minimum price objective of 124.08 or if we break south my PO will be 112.03. These PO's have been calculated by taking the price difference of the mouth of the triangle and applying this figure up and down from the triangles point. When the PO is reached, we will then determine our next course of action. I remain Bullish on this pair.

21 H/L: Continuous blue line
PO (Low): Brown broken line

TRADE COMPLETION: LOSS 0.2%


EUR/JPY

****refer to post 63****


B/S: Sell
Price: 134.655
S/L: 137.535 (adjusted to 134.923)
Risk: 2.0%
Open Date: 01/22/2015
Close Date: 02/03/2015
Profit / Loss: -0.2%

Conclusion: A well executed trade. This trade was a continuation of a previous trade (see post 63 for further details). After a good start where this pair dropped to 130.76, it eventually retraced to stop me out for 0.2% loss. The technicals were sound but unfortunately the trade retraced to hit my 10 day trailing stop. If I can take a negative, and this applies to all my open trades at the moment, it is that I didnt close the trade earlier. I was too rigid in my exit rule.

TRADE COMPLETION: GAIN 0.2%

EUR/GBP

****refer to post 64****

B/S: Sell
Price: 0.7593
S/L: 0.7693
Risk: 1.3%
Open Date: 01/22/2015
Close Date: 02/03/2015
Profit / Loss: 0.2%

Conclusion: A well executed trade. This pair had been trying to break thru a major monthly support area. It was taken at the 52 day low which is strong sell signal in my strategy and after two weeks of gains, a retrace since Monday gone, resulted in this pair stopping me out at the ten day high of .7580. If the downward trend continues in this pair, I will look for another point of entry beyond the most recent low of .7400

TRADE COMPLETION: Loss 0.3%

GBP/CAD

B/S: Buy
Price: 1.8894
S/L: 1.8505 (adjusted to 1.8832)
Risk: 2.0%
Open Date: 01/28/2015
Close Date: 02/04/2015
Profit / Loss: -0.3%

Conclusion: A well executed trade. This pair had been ranging since early Dec 14 before breaking out to the topside in mid January. The breakout was well under way by the time I entered the market on 01/28/2015. Although this was a late entry, I was still well within my 6*ATR limit. In most instances, I would have allowed this trade to absorb the retrace which is currently taking place, but due to significant floating profit depletion this week, I closed it out early. This was a proactive preventitive measure. Should the trend continue north, I will look to get back in, as soon as my current open trades either close out or increase in profitability and only if I am still within 6*ATR of the breakout.

TRADE COMPLETION: GAIN 4.3%

****refer to post 65****

GBP/AUD

B/S: Buy
Price: 1.8711
S/L: 1.8365
Risk: 1.5%
Open Date: 01/21/2015
Close Date: 02/09/2015
Profit / Loss: 4.3%

Conclusion: A well executed trade. This trade was taken at a level of weekly support as opposed to at a 21 / day price high. Please refer to post 65 for further info. This pair is moving in an upward channel and has now reached the topside as per below. I am re-positioned just above the channel top in the event of a further move north. If the trend pulls back as expected, I will be looking to re-enter a Buy at the daily support level of 1.9277 or if this level is breached I will look once again to buy at the weekly support level (bottom side of the channel) at 1.8928. i wont be looking to Short the pullback as this would be a counter-trend move.

well done!

Thanks systematicfx! Appreciate it!

This morning I will document a few trades that have opened recently.

NZD/USD

This trade was taken as price was threatening a major monthly support at .7430. A breakout was in progress on the daily chart and this was in line with a weekly bearish trend since July 14. Between September and January, the pair moved into a period of consoldation but a continuation of the decline is likely. This is backed up by OBV. As of today, a 30%-50% retracement is almost complete and I expect the further moves south shortly.

B/S: Sell
Price: .7394
S/L: .7584
Risk: 2.0%
Open Date: 01/28/2015
Close Date:
Profit / Loss:

AUD/USD

On the monthly chart this pair topped out in Sept '11, and has been in gradual decline ever since. Thru the period of the middle of 2014 we saw a period of consoldation before the end of August when the bearish trend continued once more. I was able to identify an entry point at .7951 which was a breakthru of the 52 day low. Currently the pair is trying to push lower thru .7600 and beyond that, there are no clear support levels until around .7200. I have adjusted the SL on this trade to .7881 to reduce my exposure, as the drop has not taken place as quickly as I would have expected.

I have also scaled in at .7719 (another identified point of entry and another 52 day low.) Further details below.

B/S: Sell
Price: .7851
S/L: .7881
Risk: 2.0%
Open Date: 01/29/2015
Close Date:
Profit / Loss:

B/S: Sell (Scale in)
Price: .7719
S/L: .7895
Risk: 1.0%
Open Date: 02/02/2015
Close Date:
Profit / Loss:

USD/JPY

This trade was taken as per my technical forecast, detailed in post 69. At the time of posting the forecast my entry point was 120.22, but this trade did not open until 02/06 and by that stage, the 21 day high price was lower at 118.803. This price became my new entry point. This was very slightly above 118.80 which I identified as a resistance area.

B/S: Buy
Price: 118.803
S/L: 116.869 (adjusted to 118.202)
Risk: 1.4%
Open Date: 02/06/2015
Close Date:
Profit / Loss:

GBP/JPY

This pair has been in a long term bullish trend since May 2012. A strong support level has developed at on the weekly charts and this has so far been respected at prices 168.798 and 175.49. Currently we are in mid bounce off this support and the coninuation of the upward trend is now the most probable outcome. My entry point as usual, is based on the 21 day high having been breached. I have adjusted my SL on the trade this morning for risk management purposes.

B/S: Buy
Price: 180.392
S/L: 178.441 (adjusted to 179.522)
Risk: 1.5%
Open Date: 02/06/2015
Close Date:
Profit / Loss:

TRADE COMPLETION: LOSS 1.5%

USD/NOK

B/S: Sell
Price: 7.4822
S/L: 7.7082 (adjusted to 7.6798)
Risk: 1.8%
Open Date: 02/06/2015
Close Date: 02/12/2015
Profit / Loss: -1.5%

Conclusion: This trade was taken using my entry criteria at the 21 day low. Previously I have had two Longs in this pair up until mid January in which I gained approx 10% and since then we have been in a period of consolodation. I do recall taking this trade although I didnt document it at the time. My open equity had been depleted and I had closed a couple of under performing trades, to reallocate funds. I was looking to get straight back into the market somewhere and with hindsight I think this was too risky a trade to have taken. Generally I am bullish across the board in USD and would almost always favour longs. Having said that, my most basic entry criteria had been met and I took the Short trade. I guess from this loss, I will learn to be less hasty and more disciplined when placing trades.