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  • #201
  • Jan 22, 2015 11:50am Jan 22, 2015 11:50am
Quoting hayseed
opened an etrade futures account friday
//------

bet there ain't too many hayseeds tradin futures....... this dang x_trader platform is kickin my butt..... from what i can see, infinityfuture's platform is far better for beginners like me......

they have tons of self help type instructional videos...... where xtrader really has almost nothing.....

etrade is convenient but might be moving my account before ever placing a single trade......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #202
  • Jan 22, 2015 6:21pm Jan 22, 2015 6:21pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //------ bet there ain't too many hayseeds tradin futures....... this dang x_trader platform is kickin my butt..... from what i can see, infinityfuture's platform is far better for beginners like me...... they have tons of self help type instructional videos...... where xtrader really has almost nothing..... etrade is convenient but might be moving my account before ever placing a single trade......h
Futures?! A braver soul than I ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #203
  • Jan 22, 2015 9:54pm Jan 22, 2015 9:54pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Futures?! A braver soul than I ... .
//----

not yet..... still tryin to figure out this dang x_trader platform..... ordered a new laptop just for it alone and still can't get going....... it's burnin my mind......

seriously thinkin of closing the etrade futures account and moving to infinity futures..... infinity's platform looks easy......

and hayseeds need all the easy they can get.......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #204
  • Jan 23, 2015 4:52am Jan 23, 2015 4:52am
I have a small problem what is this interest rate. if the interest rate go down market also go down. Please tell me what is combination market & the interest.
//-----

hey iresh..... got your pm..... there is no set in stone correlation between interest rates and markets.... sometimes markets will rise with rising interest rates and sometimes they will fall with rising rates.... sometimes markets will fall will falling rates and sometimes they will rise.....

it really depends on which market your speakin of and far more important, what the large speculators think will happen next......

if speaking of the forex
{
if a central bank cuts rates and hints more rate cuts will follow, large speculators will carefully sell that currency against carefully chosen other currencies.... this has an overall weakening effect on that currency.....

if a central bank raises rates and hints more rate hikes will follow, large speculators will carefully buy that currency against carefully chosen other currencies.... this has an overall strengthening effect on that currency.....
}

if your speaking of interest rates vs the stock markets read these few posts here......

but keep in mind, it all depends on what the large specs think will happen next and how much their accounts are already weighted in that direction..... meaning, if large specs think a single rare rate cut might knock the cad down 200 pips but they are already way overweight short cad positions, they might use that 200 pips to exit their positions rather than increasing short positions......

you can overlay cot large spec positions, interest rates on to any other chart to see the effect......
//------

keep in mind, bear market rally's can be quick and vicious.....

will post an indicator that calculates your potential loss at any point if the market moves against your positions..... and of course it will calculate your profit at any point if the market continues to move in your direction....... it won't..... keep on guard for retraces.... they will come.....h

//-----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: max loss.png Size: 43 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #205
  • Jan 23, 2015 7:00am Jan 23, 2015 7:00am
Hey hasee. You are a grate human. any time explaining anything. Thank you very much for your kind effort....h
  • #206
  • Jan 24, 2015 1:17pm Jan 24, 2015 1:17pm
Last question regarding stocks. Where is most of your money made? Stocks,

Forex, Options? How long are u an investor in the stockmarket ? Could u give me a hint regarding good literature for stocks. Thank u very much.

U are short the eur now.Lets take for example Eur/NZD. The actual retrace barely touched the 38 fibo line.
As I understand u are trying always to keep your average price above 61% Fibo. Could u explain your trade on eur/nzd ro me plz?

//----

hey thalaton..... good questions..... without a doubt most of my money is made in options.... would never suggest anyone trade them.... years ago spare money was hard for me to come by, so i needed to find ways to get around my limited funds.... 100 shares of ibm might have run 12000 but an option could be had for only 300..... it's equivalent to todays forex trading which was unknown to the common man back then..... scars of truth.....

david dremans book 'contrarian investing' is my favorite.....

the internet might be the best source for learning overall.... reading/learning is a passion of mine..... my preference is to lean toward female authors.....
their signal to noise ratio is far better..... these posts contain links to some of the type things i like to read.....

in regards to the eurnzd..... i was targeting a test of the weeks low which did not happen.... if by 61% your refering to this post, keep in mind it says if that is my intention.... so it's not always my intention.....

these trades were after the 'first signal' so think about repositioning bad trades..... next week after i selectively close the lower most vulnerable orders first you'll better see what i mean..... will post charts then to explain further.... think about repositioning......
//----

But then a strange thing happens. You walk into the red wing and start to play..... read the sure thing .......h

//------
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: reposition.png Size: 53 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #207
  • Jan 29, 2015 7:53am Jan 29, 2015 7:53am
you are back sir.
can you give some review on what happen with your preferred pair EUR/NZD. im the one that follow your explore, in the mean time i learn something on your MM manangement
  • #208
  • Jan 29, 2015 11:22am Jan 29, 2015 11:22am
Quoting kucinghitam
you are back sir. can you give some review on what happen with your preferred pair EUR/NZD. im the one that follow your explore, in the mean time i learn something on your MM manangement
//----

hey kucinghitam...... yes, i'm back....... but with a few dollars less....

i really expected a double bottom before any serious retrace..... so was positioned short in both the eurnzd and euraud with targets just above the weeks low.....

it appears first the snb started the ball rolling against me by thru intervention, buying euros, or at least by secondly putting the word out they might..... i believe both..... and thirdly this additional euro buying sent eur shorts covering..... i see all 3 of these as good things......

retraces are good things....... it's better to travel the same road twice..... 10 days ago when the eurnzd was 1.48, people were wishing they had sold at 1.58 .....

now is the time to carefully and slowly reposition at better prices...... as thalaton had mentioned in a pm, my trades were well below the 50% line and all quite risky......

my money management is unconventional..... every pair is given a particular amount..... the profit/loss is individually kept on a per pair basis..... as seen in the picture above, i keep track of every order start to finish..... all losing trades will be re-entered at a better price if possible..... as the pair makes more, i will risk more in it....

this weeks loss , so far, was almost 1300 in the eurnzd..... my etradefx account loss was much greater..... both losses should be quickly covered, perhaps in a week.....

a retrace to 61% , 1.5650, would be nice.... 75% , 1.5850, better still..... a 100% retrace, 1.62, would set me back.....

an abc up correction followed shortly by a 5 waves continuation down would not surprise me........ it's all up to the snb......h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: abc.png Size: 53 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #209
  • Jan 29, 2015 11:43am Jan 29, 2015 11:43am
Hallo Hayseed,

nice that u are back So u are shorting the Eur/Nzd again.
U stated that your price for going out would be around 1.62. So the Eur/NZD would make a new High at that price compared to the previous high. Is that the reasoning behind it? And if the price would go higher would u try to reposition again or would u consider the Trend broken. I hope its understandable what i have written.

You almost always place the majority of your orders (sell, buy) against the short term trend i.e against the actual Retrace direction. How do u manage the adding of positions if the retracement finally stops and the market moves in your direction. Do u add at all?

Best regards

Thalaton
  • #210
  • Jan 29, 2015 9:26pm Jan 29, 2015 9:26pm
Quoting Thalaton
You almost always place the majority of your orders (sell, buy) against the short term trend i.e against the actual Retrace direction. How do u manage the adding of positions if the retracement finally stops and the market moves in your direction. Do u add at all? Best regards Thalaton
//-----

hey thalaton..... was waiting for the 50% retrace to reenter..... my prior group were not going to work out...... there is no point in holding a 1000$ loss hoping it will someday breakeven..... best to let it go and reenter at better prices.....

just like you mentioned, my trades entered below the 38% were way to low...... only took 2 days to be sure..... i may be wrong but i won't be wrong for long......
//-----

yes, most of the orders will be against the short term trend, 4 or 8 hour charts, but with the long term trend..... i'm selling overbought conditions on the 4 or 8 hour chart in a daily downtrend.... same thing as sell the rallys.... overbought in a downtrend....

i will place trailing sellstops that will move up in step with the zigzag once the last leg of the zigzag is up on the daily charts and below...... so when the retrace ends and begins to fall, the orders will activate once the price falls into them..... the risk is a large spike down might trigger them all prematurely.... it happens a lot.....

and really helps if the last daily leg is at least it's twice the average length and the daily cci is greater than 200......
//-----

you mentioned options the other day..... i usually wait again for extreme overbought or oversold conditions and the buy puts or calls..... as example, past few weeks i expected a eur short squeeze which should drive down the 'EUO' a proshares ultra short etf..... i bid very low for calls.... only 10 were filled..... sold them a few days later..... did not make that much....

leaps that are in the money but with the trend usually double your money.....

it's almost impossible to trade options on currencies..... i have quite a few posts on it around, here are some...... look at the option chains for the ndo, the nzd spot..... almost no open interest..... very very few of us trade spot options...... there is a reason why......h
//----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trailing sellstops and limits.png Size: 75 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euo orders.png Size: 201 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #211
  • Jan 30, 2015 2:07am Jan 30, 2015 2:07am
Thank u for your response. What do u think about eur/cad? It has similar to eur/aud eur/nzd a nice retrace. Its now well above 61% Fibo and the leg length is about 500 pips. What are the reason for u not to be in that trade? Could u pls explain how much of importance u weight on fundamentals and how u use it when making your decisions?
  • #212
  • Jan 30, 2015 7:40am Jan 30, 2015 7:40am
Quoting Thalaton
Thank u for your response. What do u think about eur/cad? It has similar to eur/aud eur/nzd a nice retrace. Its now well above 61% Fibo and the leg length is about 500 pips. What are the reason for u not to be in that trade? Could u pls explain how much of importance u weight on fundamentals and how u use it when making your decisions?
//-----

hey thalaton..... i am short 3 eurcad mini lots in the etrade fx account.... the fxcm account trades should be hitting the board shortly..... I was waiting for a retest of todays high..... trailing sell stops will activate if it falls from here and sell limits will activate it moves higher.....

either way, trades are fixin to open......
//----

fundamentals are very important to me..... the cad's future is largely based on the price of oil at this point..... oil should recover some and so will the cad...... it's hard to see another rate cut...... so fundamentally speakin the cad is at it's darkest hour now......

hmmmm... while i was typing the gdp numbers came out.... we now have the retest...... it could easily hit the 75% and possibly the dec 16th high..... these are good things.....

be wary of a short squeeze..... h
//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADDaily.png Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.png Size: 137 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #213
  • Jan 30, 2015 6:08pm Jan 30, 2015 6:08pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- hey thalaton..... i am short 3 eurcad mini lots in the etrade fx account.... the fxcm account trades should be hitting the board shortly..... I was waiting for a retest of todays high..... trailing sell stops will activate if it falls from here and sell limits will activate it moves higher..... either way, trades are fixin to open...... //---- fundamentals are very important to me..... the cad's future is largely based on the price of oil at this point..... oil should recover some and so will the cad...... it's hard to see another...
Thanks for your insight into EUR/CAD. I entered a little farther down the totem pole, so to speak, but am looking to add short legs after the GDP figures sink into the market a little more fully. Personally expected a lackluster GDP and expect potentially lackluster employment data later in the week in light of the oil decline, which may have begun to sideline some Canadian oil producers, although it is unclear as to how many. http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles...than-shale-oil
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #214
  • Feb 1, 2015 1:28pm Feb 1, 2015 1:28pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Personally expected a lackluster GDP and expect potentially lackluster employment data later in the week in light of the oil decline, which may have begun to sideline some Canadian oil producers, although it is unclear as to how many.
//----

hey zebrasquirl..... keep an eye open for mergers and buyouts in the oil patch..... most companies are cash rich, if stock prices drop much there will be a shopping spree.....

the companies themselves can go years losing money which drives down their stock price..... this makes the appeal to buy them irresistible..... many will go on exploring now even knowing nothing might be sold for years..... look how long the prudhoe bay field took to come on line......

the canadian economy might be drafting the states now, but there's straightaway around ever corner......h
//----
//----

the indicators below have a pips , atr periods and multiple settings.... if the atr periods value is greater than 0, the offset will be the atr times the multiple setting..... so if atrperiods is 50 and multiple is 4, the offset will be +4 times the atr..... if multiple is -4, it will be -4 times atr....

otherwise the pips sets the offset with same + or - multiple rules..... the templates are examples......h






//-----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tsr tmp.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: zz tmp.png Size: 63 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 TSR +- pips.mq4   5 KB | 573 downloads
File Type: ex4 TSR +- pips.ex4   11 KB | 470 downloads
File Type: mq4 ZigZag +- pips.mq4   9 KB | 566 downloads
File Type: ex4 ZigZag +- pips.ex4   13 KB | 481 downloads
File Type: tpl Tsr +- pips.tpl   3 KB | 503 downloads
File Type: tpl ZigZag +- pips.tpl   3 KB | 446 downloads
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #215
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:05pm Feb 2, 2015 10:05pm
both eurnzd and euraud 30 minute cci just crossed over 450...... both 60 minute's are above 400...... you can count the number of times that happens a year on one hand with fingers to spare....h
//----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud 30 cci 450.png Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd 30 cci 450.png Size: 45 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #216
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:19pm Feb 2, 2015 10:19pm
Quoting hayseed
you must over look the sunday gaps which give false emv readings......
//----

both 60 minute charts emv readings are at levels reserved for sunday gaps....... and even then only a few times a year.....

extreme positive emv numbers represent lack of proper ratio of sellers....... extreme emv negative numbers represent lack of proper ratio of buyers......

usually a short squeeze or stoplosses......h
//----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud 60 emv.png Size: 63 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd 60 emv.png Size: 66 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #217
  • Feb 3, 2015 3:13am Feb 3, 2015 3:13am
Hello Hayseed. Thanks as always for your answers and explanations. Could u pls explain why you closed out most of your eur/cad shorts today?
As we discussed earlier your positions consists of two types (both types go with the daily trend): 1st type is against the short term trend, 2nd type comes when the Market turns in your favor. What is the ratio betwen both types in numbers ( for example 40:60, 80:20) ?

Best regards

Thalaton
  • #218
  • Feb 3, 2015 8:52am Feb 3, 2015 8:52am
Quoting Thalaton
Could u pls explain why you closed out most of your eur/cad shorts today? As we discussed earlier your positions consists of two types (both types go with the daily trend): 1st type is against the short term trend, 2nd type comes when the Market turns in your favor. What is the ratio betwen both types in numbers ( for example 40:60, 80:20) ? Best regards Thalaton
//-----

hey thalaton..... both the eurcad and eurnzd daily trends are improving, so shorts become more risky..... the eurad is not far behind.....

the world is extremely short the eur.... my concern was the aud rate announcement might lead to vicious euraud short covering if it was something truly unexpected.... say like a .5 rate cut..... with hints of more cuts this year..... this short covering could spill over into everything, including other eur pairs......

something was happening in the eurnzd pair around 0:0 gmt ...... it had alerts going off and me confused....... so most all eur trades were closed in both fxcm and etradefx out of precaution..... will add more here later....

you can be on the right side of the road going in the right direction and still get run over........ be wary of short covering..... h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #219
  • Edited 12:22pm Feb 3, 2015 11:52am | Edited 12:22pm
just a reminder for me.....h

//----
edit.... 12:20 pm backup reminder to me.... comparison......h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: zz.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: zz 2.png Size: 33 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #220
  • Feb 3, 2015 12:35pm Feb 3, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting hayseed
//---- both 60 minute charts emv readings are at levels reserved for sunday gaps....... and even then only a few times a year..... extreme positive emv numbers represent lack of proper ratio of sellers....... extreme emv negative numbers represent lack of proper ratio of buyers...... usually a short squeeze or stoplosses......h
//---

looks like everybody's gittin a turn....... now it's the eurusd......h

//------
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 30 emv.png Size: 42 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
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