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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #17,261
  • Jan 19, 2015 9:36pm Jan 19, 2015 9:36pm
CitiFX: "State of the Retail Foreign Exchange Market"

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/group...bebe1c60d92ce4
  • #17,262
  • Jan 20, 2015 1:55am Jan 20, 2015 1:55am
Quoting andexQ
CitiFX: "State of the Retail Foreign Exchange Market" https://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/group...bebe1c60d92ce4


Thanks for that, very interesting stuff
  • #17,263
  • Jan 20, 2015 1:55am Jan 20, 2015 1:55am
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions


about time to go long?
  • #17,264
  • Jan 20, 2015 9:11am Jan 20, 2015 9:11am
Quoting infinitus
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions about time to go long?

..& actual it seems to be:
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  • #17,265
  • Jan 20, 2015 10:31pm Jan 20, 2015 10:31pm
DSI shows 5% EUR bulls and 95% DXY bulls

CAD 7% bulls

Crude 7% bulls

T.bonds 88% bulls

Gold 58% bulls
  • #17,266
  • Jan 20, 2015 10:40pm Jan 20, 2015 10:40pm
Quoting infinitus
DSI shows 5% EUR bulls and 95% DXY bulls CAD 7% bulls Crude 7% bulls T.bonds 88% bulls Gold 58% bulls

I'm expecting climax on USD.. not sure when maybe within 1-5 days.
  • #17,267
  • Jan 21, 2015 2:19am Jan 21, 2015 2:19am
Quoting infinitus
DSI shows 5% EUR bulls and 95% DXY bulls CAD 7% bulls Crude 7% bulls T.bonds 88% bulls Gold 58% bulls
heh now thats some serious extreme. Lets see, ECB should deliver down, then considering fundamental trend it should go further down, or should it. It depends how much was priced in, and how big will QE be. Regular 500bil will probably set spike down and could deliver reversal sooner or later. Big QE and there wont be any reversal...further down. Technicals still point towards down, while sentiment data also on FF is starting to pinch towards bull move. In any case we need to be careful.
  • #17,268
  • Jan 21, 2015 3:47am Jan 21, 2015 3:47am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} heh now thats some serious extreme. Lets see, ECB should deliver down, then considering fundamental trend it should go further down, or should it. It depends how much was priced in, and how big will QE be. Regular 500bil will probably set spike down and could deliver reversal sooner or later. Big QE and there wont be any reversal...further down. Technicals still point towards down, while sentiment data also on FF is starting to pinch towards bull move. In any case we need to be careful.
regarding Euro: what bothers me is the drastic step the SNB took last week. What caused this measure to drop the peck, while only few days beforehand they reiterated it.

regarding CAD: This count should support the contrarian stance toward the only 7% CAD bulls left. http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ell...er/2015/01/21/
  • #17,269
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:53am Jan 21, 2015 10:53am
ROFL

what a show in the EU thread


BTW: so far we had a perfect ABC movement since the bottom, where A = C was perfectly met

curious, saw no one mention it
  • #17,270
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:05am Jan 21, 2015 11:05am
Quoting infinitus
ROFL what a show in the EU thread BTW: so far we had a perfect ABC movement since the bottom, where A = C was perfectly met curious, saw no one mention it
Speaking of perfect abc .
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,271
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:12am Jan 21, 2015 11:12am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
S&P Surges As ECB's QE Leaked: Board Proposes €50 Billion In Bond Monetization Per Month
  • #17,272
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:13am Jan 21, 2015 11:13am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
All Liquidity Disappears From Euro FX Market Day Ahead Of ECB Announcement
  • #17,273
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:21am Jan 21, 2015 11:21am
funny thing with the EU thread is, that so many lately seem to be interested in funnymentals, but do not get the messages early

btw: I read this while I was skiing this morning


Market Wrap: Futures Lower After BOJ Disappoints, ECB's Nowotny Warns "Not To Get Overexcited"; China Soars
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2015 06:55 -0500
  • #17,274
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:22am Jan 21, 2015 11:22am
Quoting infinitus
funny thing with the EU thread is, that so many lately seem to be interested in funnymentals, but do not get the messages early btw: I read this while I was skiing this morning Market Wrap: Futures Lower After BOJ Disappoints, ECB's Nowotny Warns "Not To Get Overexcited"; China Soars {image} Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2015 06:55 -0500

snipset:

Finally, in the easter egg department, with the much-anticipated ECB announcement just 24 hours away, none other than the ECB's Ewald Nowotny threw a glass of cold water in the faces of algos everywhere when he said that tomorrow's meeting will be interesting but one "shouldn’t get overexcited about it." He said that he saw low inflation rates but did not expect deflation. Nonetheless, inflation developments need to be monitored closely, Nowotny said. Is it possible that with more than 100% of ECB QE priced in and every pundit betting the kitchen sink it is inevitable, that Mario Draghi still doesn't have the needed consensus and will disappoint tomorrow? If so, watch out for some serious fireworks as even more macro hedge funds blow up.


And in the WSJ:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/dont-get...tny-1421832723
  • #17,275
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:53am Jan 21, 2015 11:53am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Speaking of perfect abc . {image}

same idea can be found here: http://ewminteractive.com/usdjpy-locked-triangle/

note: I hate to count triangles, when the D wave is not finished - may end with a bad surprise oftentimes
  • #17,276
  • Jan 21, 2015 12:02pm Jan 21, 2015 12:02pm
Quoting infinitus
ROFL what a show in the EU thread BTW: so far we had a perfect ABC movement since the bottom, where A = C was perfectly met curious, saw no one mention it

double ROFL

forget the perfect A= C

should learn to place the fib-tool correctly

And no one complained
  • #17,277
  • Jan 21, 2015 12:03pm Jan 21, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} same idea can be found here: http://ewminteractive.com/usdjpy-locked-triangle/ note: I hate to count triangles, when the D wave is not finished - may end with a bad surprise oftentimes
Screw him, he copyied it from us he put it there today and we are talking bout it two weeks?:

Quoting infinitus
Long and intermediate term count of USDJPY ....
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
So from the long term view we are still in correction, but about 95% and possibly about to break top of wave 4 of previous cycle. So if we start trending we may mark it as wave 1. Second look is on midterm 2011 - now, where we appear to a) have alraedy finished wave 5 and now in abc consolidation. b)since on major scale we are breaking high and about to trend, think wave 5 top is fake and are just about in little abc correction.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Btw, this is the triangle on UJ am blathering bout. Abc poof. Waves d,e very possibly not happen as BoJ ECB combo approaches. {image}
And as you have said, wave d wont be finished .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,278
  • Jan 21, 2015 7:16pm Jan 21, 2015 7:16pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Screw him, he copyied it from us he put it there today and we are talking bout it two weeks?: {quote} {quote} {quote} And as you have said, wave d wont be finished . T


thieves everywhere
  • #17,279
  • Jan 21, 2015 7:18pm Jan 21, 2015 7:18pm
sentiment indices:

CAD 3% bulls

EUR 9% bulls

DXY 88% bulls

Gold 61% bulls

Crude 12% bulls
  • #17,280
  • Jan 21, 2015 7:18pm Jan 21, 2015 7:18pm
last analysis recap:

http://singulorum001.blogspot.ch/201...erm-count.html


all three discussed options there remain valid


I remain with option a) as my main count.

As you can see on the next chart, the structure since the low is not convincing impulsive so far.

The first leg higher has a nearly wave 1 wave 4 overlap, the second leg up can be counted either as ending diagonal (which would make the whole structure to an ABC), or as leading diagonal (which would make the whole structure to a bullish 1-2, 1-2 pattern.


Trade safe today, reduce leverage, and good luck.
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