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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #701
  • Edited 7:29pm Jan 16, 2015 2:39pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} WOW G, This is far more than I had hoped for. For me this is one of the most important posts that you have given us with obviously a great deal of thought behind it. Many, Many Thanks!!! I have taken the liberty of translating your concepts into a Thumbs array for USDCAD...
Cool display AG. Very cool that you are seeing the whole picture of a pair's movement rather than just a slice of it with only one timeframe. I like to think of price as a 3 dimensional object and various timeframes as being 2 dimensional slices through that object. You have to look at many slices to put the whole picture together in your head. That is a big part of the core of this strategy. It's not a perfect analogy, but it sort of conveys the concept of multi-timeframe trading. Thanks!

G
  • #702
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:13am Jan 17, 2015 10:13am
Graviton,

Great charts and and explaining your logic for entry!

What if all TF's are pointing down and EMA's / signals lining up short (as in EURUSD), but you short but soon after price does a huge retrace (100 pips or so) from oversold conditions and we are stopped out? Do you think its better to first wait for a retrace to happen on 5 min charts, then check after its heading down again for all TF's alignment to enter?

If this is the case, this would require a lot of screen time sitting to wait for that to happen. Do you think it would be better to create an EA (I can code it) to wait for alignment of 1 hr and lower TF's, but have it wait for 5 min to head up, then confirm its heading down on the next bar to initiate a short?

Something like this needs to be confirmed on 1hr, 30min, 15min, 5 min for shorts (opposite for longs):
(1) 3 EMA < 10 SMA
(2) RSI < 50
(3) CCI < 0
(4) MACD < 0

The trader would verify M, W, D, and 4 hr alignment (check twice a day as you said), and check fundamentals. The trader would then set the EA to enter a trade and enter a SL. It wouldn't take profit as that's up to the trader to manage later.

Regards,
EZ
  • #703
  • Jan 17, 2015 12:27pm Jan 17, 2015 12:27pm
Hi Graviton,

here comes the question of the day, maybe it is a good discussion topic which you haven't discussed in detail until now:

7. You said more times that you use different lot size for you original position and differet lot size for your scaling in positions. Why is that and how do you decide what is the right size for the first, second etc. positions?

Thanks,

IBO
  • #704
  • Jan 17, 2015 6:13pm Jan 17, 2015 6:13pm
Hey G,

Thanks for sharing how you use all TFs. That's really helpful (I just simplified my method even more after reading your post.)

I am having trouble with balance "taking profit" & letting winners run.

I know exits are incredibly important.

This is what my current plan is:
Enter one lot after another until I have 4 lots, then I would take the oldest and most profitable lot.

But what if I want to ride the trend longer and build a large lot base before taking profit?

I am concerned that if I don't take profit (take a lot away and adding one back)
then I would lose all my profits back to the market (unrealize gain)

and at the same time, it seems to scary to hold onto a trade for over a few weeks (uncomfortable for holding it longer term)

An easy way would be to just simply focus on entries, entires & entries and don't exit anything until 4 weeks later (systematically allowing growth)

What's your view on that?

Cheers,
Eric
  • #705
  • Jan 18, 2015 11:41pm Jan 18, 2015 11:41pm
Quoting ezcurrency
Graviton, Great charts and and explaining your logic for entry! What if all TF's are pointing down and EMA's / signals lining up short (as in EURUSD), but you short but soon after price does a huge retrace (100 pips or so) from oversold conditions and we are stopped out?...
Lots of family obligations this weekend. I'm thinking over your post. I'll come back to it tomorrow. Time for rest now. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

G
  • #706
  • Jan 19, 2015 6:59pm Jan 19, 2015 6:59pm
I've entered a few USDJPY longs on the recent swing low, and added a few times on the way up:

http://i.imgur.com/uxlP6XR.png

Hopefully it hits my 121 target in a few months!

EZ
  • #707
  • Jan 20, 2015 1:24am Jan 20, 2015 1:24am
I thought it might be beneficial to share an update with you guys on my implementation on Graviton's method:

So every day, I rank all the currencies I like to trade in terms of momentum.
I start with the monthly chart and assess:
Is there momentum?
If there is, I move down to the lower TF until I reach Hour 1.

(Since I am working during the day, I can't stay in front of the computer at all times: therefore, I decided that anything lower than H1 is consider noise to me)

After that, I label all the areas of support and resistance in green boxes to see where price is likely to retrace and go forward.
This also gives me a good indication to place my minimal stop loss on an Hour 1 time frame.

I believe that if I place my stop loss in H1 with reasonable risk - then over time: growth will make me profitable.

Anyways, so I did that analysis on AU and here's the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 77 KB


This is an hour 1 chart and I placed my stop loss at around 0.82182
(Long term trend is down you notice that price was making previous high)

Those green ticks indicate that where I would enter a trade.
If price goes in my favour, then I would enter the next lot.

Now, I can only wait...

(Last week, I was emotional and traded too much on a Friday - that evaporated all my profits and broke even for the week)
(My goal this week is to manage my emotion and keep that in check at all times)

Cheers,
Eric
  • #708
  • Jan 20, 2015 5:12am Jan 20, 2015 5:12am
Good morning everyone,

i'm trying to gradually implement G.'s method. Still, i suffer of too tight stoploss. In 3 days i stopped out at be 10 times. I must learn to wait. To embrace risks which are the main thing i can earn from. No risk no reward. Difficult to implement, but a necessary step to become profitable. I'm thinking of reopening a demo account and try to practice as much as i can ruling out fear and enjoying risks. After that i will hopefully master the tecnique and not being subject to fear and will to put stoploss at be as soon as possible.

Best regards
  • #709
  • Jan 20, 2015 6:30am Jan 20, 2015 6:30am
Hi setoeric and ezcurrency,

very nice analysis and great scale in. Thanks for sharing.

What do you guys think of the CHF? Are some of the currencies like USD going to return to their value before the crash last week or not? Do you trade CHF pairs now?

IBO
  • #710
  • Jan 20, 2015 7:56am Jan 20, 2015 7:56am
I was long CHFJPY before the SNB news (got very lucky on that long!) Since then I have not traded CHF pairs. CHF may continue to strengthen, but I am going to give it a couple of weeks to play out. Large funds may still have margin calls, and also will do analysis to establish new positions which will make a new trend or consolidate. Hard to tell at the moment, so I'm on the side.

I am currently starting to short some AUD pairs. NZD and CAD are very weak, so I think AUD will go along for the ride. Also with the huge rally in Asian stock mkts overnight and 'risk on', AUD didn't participate that much, and China GDP met expectations, but AUD is weak. So time to short.

Long EA, GA, short AJ, AU.

Screenshot:
http://i.imgur.com/tMxHhLf.png

EZ
  • #711
  • Jan 20, 2015 8:00am Jan 20, 2015 8:00am
Quoting ezcurrency
Graviton, Great charts and and explaining your logic for entry! What if all TF's are pointing down and EMA's / signals lining up short (as in EURUSD), but you short but soon after price does a huge retrace (100 pips or so) from oversold conditions and we are stopped out? Do you think its better to first wait for a retrace to happen on 5 min charts, then check after its heading down again for all TF's alignment to enter? If this is the case, this would require a lot of screen time sitting to wait for that to happen. Do you think it would be better...
Hi EZ. I haven't had a lot of luck with programmed trading, but this would be an interesting experiment to run if you have the time. I'd suggest running two instances of MT4, one that enters as soon as the indicators line up, and another that waits for a retrace to end to enter and see how they perform side by side over time.

G
  • #712
  • Jan 20, 2015 8:06am Jan 20, 2015 8:06am
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi Graviton, here comes the question of the day, maybe it is a good discussion topic which you haven't discussed in detail until now: 7. You said more times that you use different lot size for you original position and differet lot size for your scaling in positions. Why is that and how do you decide what is the right size for the first, second etc. positions? Thanks, IBO
Good question IBreakOut. Most of the risk in this system is at or near the beginning. As it trades over time there should be no risk at all. So to reduce risk to my precious trading capital, I will often enter with a test lot of 0.5 lot. If it doesn't act right, initial risk to my trading capital is 1/2 what it would normally be. If it does act right, I'll then follow up with additional 1.0 lot positions. I don't think trying to optimize that any more would make much difference, but play with it side by side in demo as you like. So, in this method, all the risk is right at the beginning of the trade, and all of the profit is when we have multiple lots stacked on and price is still moving our way. Best success.

G
  • #713
  • Jan 20, 2015 8:16am Jan 20, 2015 8:16am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Hi EZ. I haven't had a lot of luck with programmed trading, but this would be an interesting experiment to run if you have the time. I'd suggest running two instances of MT4, one that enters as soon as the indicators line up, and another that waits for a retrace to end to enter and see how they perform side by side over time. G
Yes, I'll have to do some testing with it. I've created an EA that trades when 5, 15, 30, and 60 min signals align (you can see trade logic in the EA which I attached here). Feel free anyone to test it out. It basically just enters a trade when signals align, and enters SL. Its up for the trader to manually manage the trade after its entered.

Regards,
EZ
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 DR_Mult_Trend_Trader_v1.0.mq4   12 KB | 440 downloads
  • #714
  • Jan 20, 2015 8:24am Jan 20, 2015 8:24am
Quoting setoeric12
Hey G, Thanks for sharing how you use all TFs. That's really helpful (I just simplified my method even more after reading your post.) I am having trouble with balance "taking profit" & letting winners run. I know exits are incredibly important. This is what my current plan is: Enter one lot after another until I have 4 lots, then I would take the oldest and most profitable lot. But what if I want to ride the trend longer and build a large lot base before taking profit? I am concerned that if I don't take profit (take a lot away and adding one back)...
All trends end, but we never know when. Take a good bit of time to study the weekly and monthly charts to convince yourself that most good trends run for months or years. I agree that you should try to trade rather mechanically in the beginning, with spacing fairly fixed, like 50 pips, 50 pips, 75 pips, 75 pips, 100 pips and 100 pips each there after, or something like that. You do have to take profit sometime to ever win at this game, but the more you trade it and the longer you let your trades run, the more effect trend will have on price and the more you will make. Over time you will develop a level of comfort with this wild beast and learn to tame it to your will. Trade demo or very small lots until you are very comfortable with it, the smaller the better. If you do trade demo, make sure it's in the same size with the same leverage as you would use to start trading live. Something like a micro account trading 0.01 or 0.02 is best for a start. Feel free to discuss any problems you have with it here as we all learn from the discussion. Posting charts of your trades really helps us all understand your points. Happy trading.

G
  • #715
  • Jan 20, 2015 8:36am Jan 20, 2015 8:36am
Quoting ezcurrency
I've entered a few USDJPY longs on the recent swing low, and added a few times on the way up: http://i.imgur.com/uxlP6XR.png Hopefully it hits my 121 target in a few months! EZ
You should be swimming in pips today. Good trade! Thanks for sharing the chart.

G
  • #716
  • Jan 20, 2015 8:44am Jan 20, 2015 8:44am
Quoting setoeric12
I thought it might be beneficial to share an update with you guys on my implementation on Graviton's method: So every day, I rank all the currencies I like to trade in terms of momentum. I start with the monthly chart and assess: Is there momentum? If there is, I move down to the lower TF until I reach Hour 1. (Since I am working during the day, I can't stay in front of the computer at all times: therefore, I decided that anything lower than H1 is consider noise to me) After that, I label all the areas of support and resistance in green boxes to...
Sounds like a good plan Eric. Yes, after enough years, the market rings that last bit of emotion out of you. Try trading rather mechanically at the beginning to avoid emotional decisions. Our goal here is to let the trend work on our trades over a long period of time, not to make a lot with some flash in the pan news flash. If the market is crazy, it's best to get out and come back when things are rational again. Best success.

G
  • #717
  • Jan 20, 2015 9:04am Jan 20, 2015 9:04am
Quoting lemming78
Good morning everyone, i'm trying to gradually implement G.'s method. Still, i suffer of too tight stoploss. In 3 days i stopped out at be 10 times. I must learn to wait. To embrace risks which are the main thing i can earn from. No risk no reward. Difficult to implement, but a necessary step to become profitable. I'm thinking of reopening a demo account and try to practice as much as i can ruling out fear and enjoying risks. After that i will hopefully master the tecnique and not being subject to fear and will to put stoploss at be as soon as possible....
I agree. It best to learn this either in demo or trading the smallest micro lots, like 0.01 lot. 10 stop outs are a lot for 1 week. I'll usually only have a few. How are you setting your stoploss? I don't set my stoploss to BE very soon. If I had originally risked around one daily ATR, say 75 pips to enter, I wouldn't set sl to be until I was at least that much ahead. I often manually exit earlier though if the trade turns bad. Try trading with never hitting a stop loss by setting it wide and taking all your exits manually. That takes away the markets ability to stop you out and puts your exits under your control. It's difficult, but it will definitely solve the stop out problem, at the expense of being forced to make rational decisions on the fly about when to exit. If you post charts of what you are doing, we can work on it together.

G
  • #718
  • Jan 20, 2015 9:10am Jan 20, 2015 9:10am
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi setoeric and ezcurrency, very nice analysis and great scale in. Thanks for sharing. What do you guys think of the CHF? Are some of the currencies like USD going to return to their value before the crash last week or not? Do you trade CHF pairs now? IBO
The USD is the strongest currency at the moment. That might change due to having idiots running things over here, but we can only trade what we see. If the SNB quits trying to manipulate the markets, I will trade Chf again. At the moment, I'm in a "wait and see" mode. There are other very good trades where the free market is being allowed to work, like UCad long or EU short. Do be aware though that the ECB will decide on QE on Thursday. We don't want to get burned in that mess.

G
  • #719
  • Jan 20, 2015 9:13am Jan 20, 2015 9:13am
Quoting ezcurrency
{quote} Yes, I'll have to do some testing with it. I've created an EA that trades when 5, 15, 30, and 60 min signals align (you can see trade logic in the EA which I attached here). Feel free anyone to test it out. It basically just enters a trade when signals align, and enters SL. Its up for the trader to manually manage the trade after its entered. Regards, EZ {file}
An interesting experiment. Keep us posted on how this works out
  • #720
  • Jan 20, 2015 11:41am Jan 20, 2015 11:41am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} I agree. It best to learn this either in demo or trading the smallest micro lots, like 0.01 lot. 10 stop outs are a lot for 1 week. I'll usually only have a few. How are you setting your stoploss? I don't set my stoploss to BE very soon. If I had originally risked around one daily ATR, say 75 pips to enter, I wouldn't set sl to be until I was at least that much ahead. I often manually exit earlier though if the trade turns bad. Try trading with never hitting a stop loss by setting it wide and taking all your exits manually. That takes away...
Here it is...
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/lemming78/real/1068120 .
My data is public. I was doing well when I did not use stop-loss. But one position wrong and I blew up all. Now trying just to practice. This was a free money gift from the broker

Have you checked some trades?
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