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  • #20,561
  • Jan 16, 2015 6:59am Jan 16, 2015 6:59am
Quoting aky
{quote} Hi Mr T. Do you mind sharing how you decide which currency to monitor for the day? Personally I am looking to short at the 136.10-20 level as well, but I am currently trading using harmonic patterns. Would be interesting to learn more about your analysis methodology as well. Cheers! {image}
Yes. I usually scan through 25 pairs. I tend to pick the pairs which do trend the best and base setups on trend retracements. So when u align fundamental and tecnical analysis, then you find pairs which have a good trend. Those are usually best trades.
  • #20,562
  • Jan 16, 2015 7:10am Jan 16, 2015 7:10am
Quoting woof
Sobering news - hope none of you are affected. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-0...iss-shock.html

And Alpari UK also :/.. The worst day in Fx...

http://www.alpari.com/company-news/p...-announcement/

I was extremely lucky really. My brokers executed SL to the pip.
  • #20,563
  • Jan 16, 2015 8:25am Jan 16, 2015 8:25am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} And Alpari UK also :/.. The worst day in Fx... http://www.alpari.com/company-news/p...-announcement/ I was extremely lucky really. My brokers executed SL to the pip.
Unlikely but think of the carnage if they had made the announcement at the weekend. Another good reason while I close everything on Friday and sleep like a baby...you never know what can happen.
  • #20,564
  • Jan 16, 2015 10:00am Jan 16, 2015 10:00am
Quoting woof
{quote} Unlikely but think of the carnage if they had made the announcement at the weekend. Another good reason while I close everything on Friday and sleep like a baby...you never know what can happen.
I definitely agree with u!
  • #20,565
  • Jan 16, 2015 10:08am Jan 16, 2015 10:08am
Hi T.

Do you care elaborate a bit on your money management? Do you use a fixed percentage per trade? Do you ever trade without SL?
Have a great weekend
  • #20,566
  • Jan 16, 2015 4:13pm Jan 16, 2015 4:13pm
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} And Alpari UK also :/.. The worst day in Fx... http://www.alpari.com/company-news/p...-announcement/ I was extremely lucky really. My brokers executed SL to the pip.
+

New York-listed FXCM Inc, (one of the biggest platforms serving online and retail traders), said it may be in breach of some regulatory capital requirements after its clients suffered about $225 million in losses.
  • #20,567
  • Edited 9:49am Jan 18, 2015 8:33am | Edited 9:49am
As you could have heard my opinion about CHF and EUR on Live Interview with Dale Pinkert at this i would state again that SNB has totally lost its credibility and even with the situation as that is, you should always trade with low risk EVEN further reducing the risk on EXTREME volatile events.

So far we have been led to believe ( according to ECB past conferences and recent events with CHF ) that QE measures will be announced on Thusrday - 22nd of January. As you could have heard in the interview my opinion is that Jordan and co already knew about definite decision for QE and they ran away from the first line of defense of the floor. Instead of letting market participants to fight with the floor and eventually break it, they did it themselves wreaking havoc in Forex market ( including housing market as well ). This strong implication is making me believe that they intentionally erased a whole year of USDCHF gains just to buy USD in the later stage ( switching its risk from EUR to USD to devaluate CHF currency). At this chart we can see how USDCHF killed long term trders profitsfor a single year , eventually erasing 3y old profits from September 2011.

About Thursday ECB conference , ECB is expected to launch full blown QE.The government bonds part of the package is app. worth 500 bn EUR. Those are estimation of the programme. Some talks were even suggestion 3 trillion EUR (!). There is also a possibility that 500bn is the initial worth and ECB would probably leave the door opened for more.
It is also possible that market has already priced in the program into PA. Nevertheless EUR is still looking for its way towards 1.1375. On 28th of January FED will announce either rate hikes or they will postpone it. My opinion is that FED rate hikes WILL be postponed and that could lead to upsurge of EUR currency. That will be a good timing for a EURUSD retracement.
WE must not forget NFP decision on Friday, but my opinion that the NFP will be overshadowed by Thurdsay ECB and 28th of Jan NFP.

JPY

USD/JPY currency is under pressure to to raising demands for safe heavens. The most important event will be Wednesday - 21st of Jan BOJ meeting. If Kuroda announces further monetary easing we might see another surge of JPY bears kicking in.

GBP

Wednesday - 21 st of Jan will be the single most important day for GBP as the market will focus on Average earnings and labor data. Any hawkish data and hawkish tone could easily spike GBP above 5300 level. 5030 is the big support for bulls.
As you could see you never know what can happen in a sudden spike of important events announcement. That is why i always suggest using low risk and SL.
  • #20,568
  • Jan 18, 2015 2:02pm Jan 18, 2015 2:02pm
trying to make my way on this i´m in forex as a hobbie for free time and personal learning more time passes by more i understend st an low risk whit a good strategy 1% risk i think make sense 10000 account 1% 100 if you can make this once a week you will get minimum salary in portugal not mutch but better then a banck that gives to you 3% maximum a year . greed have ben what beats my acount .
whaiting on aud usd analises i see it down .
once more thanks for the free support that you are giving me here .
Scalping
  • #20,569
  • Jan 18, 2015 9:21pm Jan 18, 2015 9:21pm
Quoting T@rantula
As you could have heard my opinion about CHF and EUR on Live Interview with Dale Pinkert at this i would state again that SNB has totally lost its credibility and even with the situation as that is, you should always trade with low risk EVEN further reducing the risk on EXTREME volatile events. So far we have been led to believe ( according to ECB past conferences and recent events with CHF ) that QE measures will be announced on Thusrday - 22nd of January. As you could have heard in the interview my opinion is that Jordan and co already knew about...
Thank you for sharing your thoughts T. I respect your insight. I will be ultra cautious for a bit. It seems I'm not so thrilled about keeping positions on (or trying to trade these events) like I once was. I wonder why that is.
  • #20,570
  • Jan 19, 2015 1:40am Jan 19, 2015 1:40am
Thanks for you insight Tarantula. Feeling cautious after what happened last week so thank you for your thoughts
  • #20,571
  • Jan 19, 2015 6:42am Jan 19, 2015 6:42am
Quoting guguxpto
trying to make my way on this i´m in forex as a hobbie for free time and personal learning more time passes by more i understend st an low risk whit a good strategy 1% risk i think make sense 10000 account 1% 100 if you can make this once a week you will get minimum salary in portugal not mutch but better then a banck that gives to you 3% maximum a year . greed have ben what beats my acount . whaiting on aud usd analises i see it down . once more thanks for the free support that you are giving me here .
Quoting TessiaFx
Thanks for you insight Tarantula. Feeling cautious after what happened last week so thank you for your thoughts
Quoting calderone
{quote} Thank you for sharing your thoughts T. I respect your insight. I will be ultra cautious for a bit. It seems I'm not so thrilled about keeping positions on (or trying to trade these events) like I once was. I wonder why that is.
Thanks guys. Very cautious indeed. Only 1 day like that ( which wont happen anytime soon i hope/guess ) is enough in the whole forex career to wipe the account. The point is always about risk management.
  • #20,572
  • Jan 19, 2015 6:48am Jan 19, 2015 6:48am
AUDJPY is in uptrend and judging from the chart we can see that N 1 2 3 bullish pattern in currently in play. Any pullback towards 95.85-96.00 should provide bounce opportunities. For those which are in the trade , a clear close above 96.35 should happen for further advancement towards 97.00 - 35 . A close above 97.35 targets 98.80.

Pay attention to patterns and closes. ATR still has the room to go. Check the ATR of the pair which still has 100 more pips to be contained in the previous range. ( top left corner of the chart )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-01-19_13-38-48.png Size: 73 KB
  • #20,573
  • Jan 19, 2015 6:49am Jan 19, 2015 6:49am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} {quote} {quote} Thanks guys. Very cautious indeed. Only 1 day like that ( which wont happen anytime soon i hope/guess ) is enough in the whole forex career to wipe the account. The point is always about risk management.
Hi T.

I posted asking you about risk management in the weekend but I guess my post was lost in the flow so here it is again

Care to elaborate a bit more about your personal risk & money management ? do you use a fix $ / trade ?

thanks for everything
  • #20,574
  • Jan 19, 2015 7:16am Jan 19, 2015 7:16am
Quoting EternalNewB
{quote} Hi T. I posted asking you about risk management in the weekend but I guess my post was lost in the flow so here it is again Care to elaborate a bit more about your personal risk & money management ? do you use a fix $ / trade ? thanks for everything
Sure. Will do it during the day.
  • #20,575
  • Jan 19, 2015 7:55am Jan 19, 2015 7:55am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Yes. I usually scan through 25 pairs. I tend to pick the pairs which do trend the best and base setups on trend retracements. So when u align fundamental and tecnical analysis, then you find pairs which have a good trend. Those are usually best trades.
Hello, do you scan pairs manually every day or use some dashboard or something like that to help you?
  • #20,576
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:19am Jan 19, 2015 8:19am
Quoting T@rantula
AUDJPY is in uptrend and judging from the chart we can see that N 1 2 3 bullish pattern in currently in play. Any pullback towards 95.85-96.00 should provide bounce opportunities. For those which are in the trade , a clear close above 96.35 should happen for further advancement towards 97.00 - 35 . A close above 97.35 targets 98.80. Pay attention to patterns and closes. ATR still has the room to go. Check the ATR of the pair which still has 100 more pips to be contained in the previous range. ( top left corner of the chart ) {image}
already 30 pips up
  • #20,577
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:20am Jan 19, 2015 8:20am
Quoting dafa
{quote} Hello, do you scan pairs manually every day or use some dashboard or something like that to help you?
So far, i am scanning through pairs. CAMMACD is not "automatic" method. It needs knowledge of trends so thats why its hard to make any dashboard.
  • #20,578
  • Jan 19, 2015 10:54am Jan 19, 2015 10:54am
Quoting T@rantula
EURJPY is in a retracement and 136.20 is the first POC where we could start searching for a short trades. In the that price spikes above POC , second POC comes at 137.10-20. Target for the move is 134.70 and 134.15. {image}
Hi,

Is this setup still valid ?

thanks
  • #20,579
  • Jan 20, 2015 4:35am Jan 20, 2015 4:35am
Quoting EternalNewB
{quote} Hi, Is this setup still valid ? thanks
No, as it was posted on FRI. AUDJPY btw made it to the first target!
  • #20,580
  • Jan 20, 2015 4:48am Jan 20, 2015 4:48am
Quoting Metiu
Hi T. I'm using your PRO Scalping system ... Do you recommend to scalp the CHF pairs with the Range Bars strategy . {image}
Hello Metiu, i am glad you are using it. No, i personally dont trade chf pairs as spreads are big atm and for scalping you need very low spreads.
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