Where is the next major move? | Forex Factory

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Where is the next major move?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 15, 2015 11:44pm Jan 15, 2015 11:44pm
After the havoc caused by CHF, hopefully everyone is ok...

But here comes my question...

First is the fall of Oil, then Russian Ruble, then Copper, now is the spike of Swiss Franc, any signs of where the next big moves going to come from?
  • #2
  • Jan 16, 2015 6:10am Jan 16, 2015 6:10am
Next big move might be from the CFTC, limiting leverage in retail forex to 10:1

There's been talk of this for a while, what happened today could be the trigger for it
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #3
  • Jan 16, 2015 6:17am Jan 16, 2015 6:17am
Quoting numbnuts
Next big move might be from the CFTC, limiting leverage in retail forex to 10:1 There's been talk of this for a while, what happened today could be the trigger for it
Damn....I hope not. I hate Nanny State mentality :-(
  • #4
  • Jan 16, 2015 6:29am Jan 16, 2015 6:29am
But this is inevitable in the long term.

The brokers that goes bust put the liability on the liquidity providers, tier one banks.

Do you think they will still accept to do business with the brokers with the same conditions.
They will require higher margins. Thoses will be pass to the retail trader.
  • #5
  • Jan 16, 2015 6:48am Jan 16, 2015 6:48am
Quoting felixis
But this is inevitable in the long term. The brokers that goes bust put the liability on the liquidity providers, tier one banks. Do you think they will still accept to do business with the brokers with the same conditions. They will require higher margins. Thoses will be pass to the retail trader.
Yep. It is only the banks that are too big to fail. Interesting that the role of a central bank is to act as a lender of last resort and then create a situation which causes mayhem to the very market it is meant to protect and also avoid it's obligations to support the small fish of that very same system such as the brokers. It is only fair that the costs are passed onto the little guys. It keeps the price of foie gras and caviar low. :-(
  • #6
  • Jan 17, 2015 8:40am Jan 17, 2015 8:40am
Quoting numbnuts
Next big move might be from the CFTC, limiting leverage in retail forex to 10:1 There's been talk of this for a while, what happened today could be the trigger for it
The CFTC can use this excuse to push for lower leverage, but what happened today, falling 20-30% in a flash, even 5:1 leverage wouldn't have saved the individual traders, the "no dealing desk" brokers are the only loser...


anyway, what I meant while starting the thread was, to see if we can predict where the next big move in the market will be, I think USDJPY may be close...
  • #7
  • Jan 17, 2015 2:12pm Jan 17, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting TheCat
{quote} The CFTC can use this excuse to push for lower leverage, but what happened today, falling 20-30% in a flash, even 5:1 leverage wouldn't have saved the individual traders, the "no dealing desk" brokers are the only loser... anyway, what I meant while starting the thread was, to see if we can predict where the next big move in the market will be, I think USDJPY may be close...
The yen has been the world's primary safe haven and lowest yielding currency for a long time, so a huge amount of carry trade is based in JPY. If it loses this status, and all that carry trade starts unwinding, JPY will soar. It may even move further than CHF, though not as fast. Once that process begins it would be unstoppable - every rise in JPY value would cause more ct unwinding, which in turn pushes it higher, causing more unwinding etc.... it may never happen, but it's something to keep in mind.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #8
  • Last Post: Jan 17, 2015 3:02pm Jan 17, 2015 3:02pm
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} The yen has been the world's primary safe haven and lowest yielding currency for a long time, so a huge amount of carry trade is based in JPY. If it loses this status, and all that carry trade starts unwinding, JPY will soar. It may even move further than CHF, though not as fast. Once that process begins it would be unstoppable - every rise in JPY value would cause more ct unwinding, which in turn pushes it higher, causing more unwinding etc.... it may never happen, but it's something to keep in mind.
just so we are clear, you mean usdjpy dropping with yen strength. Another guy mentioned this recently when the borrowing costs in japan rose
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