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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #17,241
  • Jan 16, 2015 9:33pm Jan 16, 2015 9:33pm
Elliott Wave DAX daily
09.05.11 13:54
Frei nach dem Motto "jeden Tag eine neue Welle", kann sich der DAX hier austoben.
An Überraschungen hat es in der letzten Zeit ja nicht gefehlt.
  • #17,242
  • Edited 6:23am Jan 17, 2015 6:12am | Edited 6:23am
Quoting janpec1000
Schiff is guy you want to be careful with...
Well that was pretty long analysis of behaviour of one single analyst. For me, this guy is nothing more than you guys here at FF. He is an analyst and has an opinion. I dont care whether he is right or wrong, I just want to hear as much as possible opinions so I can make my own. So when he is exagerrating wrong numbers, I like to hear that, coz right now everywhere around me I hear about super numbers out of US and ECB QE for sure. Always good to see different angle. And I disagree with both main flows. US numbers are fake and EU doesnt have to but mainly shouldnt do QE.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,243
  • Edited 7:07am Jan 17, 2015 6:38am | Edited 7:07am
Quoting infinitus
maybe I should buy a EC call for the 22nd?
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Well options are generally best hedge...... But imo better to trade it. Who else can make cash out of such move than trader?
Mate, this may be quite stupid thought as apart from beeing traders, we are also people who can easily damage our lives pretty soon. Right now, I have this thought in my head and it prolly is pretty stupid - but thats the way I work. I think UJ could be the pair to trade.

See, these are inputs (very primitive I know):
USD,EUR and Yen are the most traded currencies and every central bank as well as other banks has plenty of it so in case of any shift they can operate these three currencies the easiest to rebalance.
USD long term Bull trend
Yen long term Bear trend
Now lets imagine these simplified scenarios:
ECB eases: They´r gonna sell EUR. But against what? Imo best to sell it against bullish USD. So thats USD++, UJ ++.
ECB doesnt ease: They´r gonna buy EUR. Against what? Imo best to sell some of those Yen who are falling for more than a year. Or are going to be selling USD in an uptrend? So imo this scenario results in Yen-, UJ+.

Either way, it may be win/win situation for UJ long. Though needed to say here, both scenarios can and prolly will cause such a fast flow of cash that markets may well just do a whipsaw before taking speed. Definitely not safe at all.

Have a nice weekend guys,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,244
  • Jan 17, 2015 7:39am Jan 17, 2015 7:39am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well that was pretty long analysis of behaviour of one single analyst. For me, this guy is nothing more than you guys here at FF. He is an analyst and has an opinion. I dont care whether he is right or wrong, I just want to hear as much as possible opinions so I can make my own. So when he is exagerrating wrong numbers, I like to hear that, coz right now everywhere around me I hear about super numbers out of US and ECB QE for sure. Always good to see different angle. And I disagree with both main flows. US numbers are fake and EU doesnt...
See i agree with you we want informations to build our knowledge, but why i pointed that out about Schiff is one very simple reason: its morality. He is not the same as FF posters you know why? Becouse we do it for free, we dont answer anyone for our credibility. He has multi milion usd bank and investment firm that propagates people in what to invest, and his words are usually what draws people investing with him. Its morally wrong to be fisherman when thousands of people have put their money into your hands based on your words, but you are able to skew the words in any way just to get your goal filled. I am sure you will agree on that.
  • #17,245
  • Jan 17, 2015 8:10am Jan 17, 2015 8:10am
Quoting janpec1000
I am sure you will agree on that.
Well ofc I agree, but am not talking about morals here but about gathering of informations. And although there is huge difference between institutional investors and FF posters, each man has its goal, so it is never clear (there may be scammers etc. here, not that I want to sidetrack to this topic).

There is one big but here. Or butt? Not sure now. Butt how else do you want to get information? Bloomberg definitely not having any goals, neither Reuters. If you want to get information, you need to a) find reliable sources - for example I really like Financial times. Ofc, they also have their goals, but seem more neutral than others b) read all the fckin BS of all those who try to fool you to see their goals. Read, read, read, read, count, count, count Dracula.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,246
  • Jan 17, 2015 9:36am Jan 17, 2015 9:36am
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/0...edge-fund-bbg/

Oh look its modern hedge funds. Its when you are so hedged on trades, that you simply destroy 2 bill capital by single "hedged" trade. Hedging 2.0
  • #17,247
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:40am Jan 17, 2015 10:40am
i agree that we don't have real suitable informations about what happened after the swiss central bank decisions and the impact to the forex market world wide yet,now,we have to be patience and wait
  • #17,248
  • Jan 17, 2015 3:00pm Jan 17, 2015 3:00pm
Quoting infinitus
{image} Knight 2.0: Jefferies Rescues FXCM With $300 Million Bailout, CNBC Reports snipset: So - in summary - a central bank blew up an FX broker and a mid-market junk-bond underwriter bailed them out... must be good for a green close for the week in stocks!
its just absurd, yet reality has many facets. alpari is a less amusing story personally. Could have been far worse if I did not mistrust them a few years ago after reading the small print, but still will have to book a loss here.

have fun in Switzerland
  • #17,249
  • Jan 18, 2015 3:01pm Jan 18, 2015 3:01pm
Wow for whole day already listening on state news how many people were devastated by taking CHF loans in our country for housing loans, and its all guilt of banks for not teling them. Seriously .... if you decide to take loan in CHF other than your base currency where your risk is limited from fx moves eg EUR, then you must know than any gain by taking CHF loan also comes with opsoite side, which is called RISK. For fucks sake i dont get how are people so naive. Its 2007 housing crisis all over again. People think financial markets dont change and there is only 1 side on markets, profits. I am not talking about traders ofcourse. The other thing is why are people taking 100k+ exposure of portfolio if they know nothing about financial markets, i mean where does arogance come from, or is it just being so naive, or being so trustworthy to fellow banker, i dont know which one is it, but it isnt right.
  • #17,250
  • Jan 18, 2015 3:16pm Jan 18, 2015 3:16pm
Quoting janpec1000
For fucks sake i dont get how are people so naive.
They just act naive. In CZ currently exporters are whinning they cant export to Russia. Luckily so far our government acts as it should and is laughing em in the face saying they were well aware of political risk while investing in Russia.
Same goes for those silly people calling for closing of retail FX coz we, investors, are not aware of risks of market! Oh, when I leverage, gains and lossess increase, really? Why the hell am investing here? Coz it is safe and not making any money?
I feel like in sanatorium lately.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,251
  • Jan 19, 2015 1:36am Jan 19, 2015 1:36am
EWF on EU

http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2015...-january-2015/
  • #17,252
  • Jan 19, 2015 1:38am Jan 19, 2015 1:38am
EWF on GU

http://m.youtube.com/watch?a=&v=EmiW...ature=youtu.be
  • #17,253
  • Jan 19, 2015 3:34am Jan 19, 2015 3:34am
Structure says longs on EU okay till 634ish area. Not sure if it can break it, looks low likely, will be looking for shorts around it, small risk big reward.
  • #17,254
  • Jan 19, 2015 5:32am Jan 19, 2015 5:32am
Quoting infinitus
EWF on EU http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2015...-january-2015/
1.1460 will be broken
  • #17,255
  • Jan 19, 2015 11:15am Jan 19, 2015 11:15am
Quoting chess king
I'll be very careful ... if the price reaches 1550 ... its my main level after 2000..
all targets of the fall has been made ...
1880 can be tested from this area?

or 1670 back again to down ?
  • #17,256
  • Jan 19, 2015 11:22am Jan 19, 2015 11:22am
4H chart
In other words ....

R .. TL keeps or we will test 0.3x% ret!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Captura de ecra de 2015-01-19 17:19:33.png Size: 149 KB
  • #17,257
  • Jan 19, 2015 11:27am Jan 19, 2015 11:27am
Elliott Wave Russia

on EU and GU

http://ewptoday.ru/2015/01/19/eurusd-gbpusd-2/
  • #17,258
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:39pm Jan 19, 2015 8:39pm
Daily Sentiment Index of Euro at only 7, DXY at 89

source: http://www.trade-futures.com/dailyindex.php


about time to go long
  • #17,259
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:42pm Jan 19, 2015 8:42pm
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning...for_an_upturn/

Chart In Focus
Euro Is Ripe For An Upturn
  • #17,260
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:48pm Jan 19, 2015 8:48pm
"Endgame for Central Bankers" Says Saxo Bank CIO

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...says-saxo.html
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