Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

Thanks for your words Nitin. You must read post #1, there is a link there, you have to fill up a form and you will get a link to download all the indicators.
Have a nice day!
Alfonso

Nice supply eh? He he he...

https://charts.mql5.com/6/728/usdchf...-markets-2.png

Yeahhh... go for it I'm not trading any CHF pair, I always trade the EURO pair related. USD/CHF was in a clear uptrend and then the Swiss Central Bank removed the fixed exchange rate with Euro and decreased interest rate to -0.75%.

Crazy drop! Similar on other CHF pairs, crazy!
Alfonso

You got to be kidding me ) Out at break even...lol
I have also stopped trading CHF pairs since their intervention couple yrs back.....
PS: clearly on USDCHF W1 demand zones removed, bias Short..))

I haven't traded CHF pairs, never traded EUR/CHF either because of what swiss bank did. I trade EURO pairs only, CHF pairs are normally mirrors of euro pairs... Audchf versus euraud, gbpchf versus eurgbp, etc.

Alfonso

Alfonso,

Will you post last night webinar recording here? I need to listen again.
Good old 2 hours long and I am in the midnight 3 am in US, was very sleepy.

Thanks.

You are wise not to have traded it Alfonso , i see most of Alpari UK clients lost money and the Brokerage firm is entering into insolvency as a result. I would not have liked to be caught on the wrong side of that trade

Will post it in short my friend! Sleep tight
Alfonso

Thanks a lot for your support in today's webinar. We did something different, I do it often but slightly different where traders do the analysis and they correct each other. I allowed others to pick up the microphone and contribute.

On today's webinar we went through the basics of supply and demand's core rules at Set and Forget. The Realignment/Sequence rules are at the core of the rules set, it's a very powerful, mechanical and easy way to locate the right timeframe to take a trade.

Thanks a lot to Vivek and Hugh for picking up the microphone and contribute with their comments in this webinar.

These rules are VERY specific, but you need to learn them by heart and apply them in the same way every single time you look at a chart.

We analyzed these instruments:

1. US Index, strong bullish trend that just hit Monthly Supply zone
2. USD/CAD, strong bullish trend, demand levels being respected. We explained the exact reasons to take a trade
3. USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY

Things we always need to have in mind and take into account, we covered this in today's webinar

1. Defining the trend is crucial, it will determine which is your bias. We have to pay very close attention to it
2. How to mechanically define a trend using supply and demand imbalances
3. A level of demand is valid IF A) it removes an opposing zone and/or B) it breaks a trendline in the timeframe you are looking at
4. The basing structure of a level is key to negate/confirm a level
5. Level on top of level, if in a strong and clear trend, the closest level to price is the right one to take, if the structure is correct. See USD/CAD Daily long and other levels mentioned in this webinar
6. Continuation Patterns and marubozu candles
7. Always ask the same questions if you want to get the same consistent answers? The secret is in doing the same thing always, asking the same questions over and over, else it will be chaos
8. What defines an uptrend, downtrend and consolidation at any given chart? In a few minutes we went through the core set of rules, the realignment and sequence rules, these rules allow us to locate the exact timeframe and location where a new trade could happen
9. Trades have to be managed depending on which timeframe they have been taken. It's not the same to enter on a Weekly level than on a Daily level. USD/CAD trades I've taken show a clear example, or CAD/JPY

Have a great weekend!
Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com

UPDATE: looks like USD/CAD broke higher. We were talking in the webinar about the H4 CP demand zone that could be form for a new level or even a breakout (rules/lesson not added yet but we're taking many of them under very specific rules). Let's see what happens. I am holding my D1 and WK longs.

Thanks for posting last night video, so I watched it again.
First, thanks for answering entry strategy (my previous request), and I have question here: (attached daily & monthly charts)
On USDCAD pair, your entry is on D1 chart.
But, I would wait for MN chart to retrace back lower, then take an entry at. 23.6% or 38.2% retracement.
Since that I have already missed my best entrance at the V (chedked with yellow) bar on daily chart.
btw: the green channel lines are drawn by one of my auto channel indicator.

Here is example of "aftershock" related to Swiss Franc madness...http://ir.fxcm.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=891597

You can wait till the MN DZ, no problem to go long there, that may take months to get down there, when it drops then we'll see, longs are possible if it drops from there, but that's very long term. I just take the most valid level on my entry TF. No need to wait for any retracement on fibonacci, I'm trading supply and demand not fibs, many supply and demand levels match fib retracements but no need to look at fibs to take a decision or waiting to take a level.

Have a great weekend,
Alfonso

Hi Alfonso,

I have watched quite a few of your videos and love your rules-based approach. I also use only the S&D approach to trading.

Since I have heard you mentioning Sam Seiden and Sam Evans in one of your videos, I wanted to ask you whether you have been a member of Online Trading Academy, and, if yes, did they teach all these rules there or you came up with them?

Thank you

hi Alfonso,

Since I read this thread i found some word the explain about long candle that you said ERC candle, so what is the meaning of ERC candle? I mean ERC is abbreviation? or something....?? waiting from you.

Regards,
sonigl

I've never been a member of OTA. I've watfhed many free videos from Sam Seiden, read many articles from Sam Evans in ota's weekly newsletters as well as from other ota instructors, but never took a course with them. If you read my thread and watch my videos, you will see how rules have been added steadely month after month, improved and fined tuned, they are a product a very hard work and backtesting, nothing else.

Alfonso

Google ERC and you will learn much more about it That's the frist thing you should do It stands for Extended Range Candle.
Alfonso

The list below is an overall look bigger picture trend of most important currency pairs taking into account supply and demand imbalances. I believe it's self-explanatory. Hope you find it useful

1. US INDEX --> LONGS
2. AUD/USD --> SHORTS
3. AUD/CAD --> SHORTS, CT LONGS
4. AUD/JPY --> LONGS, CT SHORTS
5. CAD/JPY --> LONGS, CT SHORTS
6. EUR/USD --> SHORTS
7. EUR/AUD --> SHORTS, CT LONGS
8. EUR/CAD --> CONSO
9. EUR/GBP --> SHORTS
10. EUR/JPY --> LONGS, CT SHORTS
11. EUR/NZD --> SHORTS
12. GBP/USD --> SHORTS
13. GBP/AUD --> LONGS, CT SHORTS
14. GBP/CAD --> LONGS, CT SHORTS
15. GBP/JPY --> LONGS, CT SHORTS
16. GBP/NZD --> SHORTS
17. NZD/USD --> SHORTS, CT LONGS
18. NZD/CAD --> LONGS
19. USD/CAD --> LONGS
20. USD/JPY --> LONGS, CT SHORTS
21. S&P500 --> LONGS, CT SHORTS
22. NASDAQ --> LONGS, CT SHORTS
23. NIKKEI --> LONGS, CT SHORTS

A more detailed example on EUR/USD, it says EUR/USD --> SHORTS, why?

1. Monthly is down
2. Weekly is down
3. Daily is down
4. Right now it's within a WK DZ nested within a non fresh Monthly demand zone
5. Odds are shorts because HTF zones are tested and it's a clear downtrend. Short until a loss happens
6. Lower timeframes entries are possible but you need to apply the rules, take correct basing levels, nice departure, etc

Have a great week!
Alfonso

Oh thanks a million Alfonso, this will surely help.

Thank you very much for your explanation...

Regads,
Sonigl

Hi Alfonso,

Im currently studying this thread page by page... video by video.... and i noticed some of the videos are not available anymore...are those videos for members only?


for example... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post6691764 or http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post6750212



Thanks
BlackCat