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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #51,501
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:52am Jan 16, 2015 2:52am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} sorry for delay, just got out of prison, literally ... hahahaa The market price is in the middle of the bid and the ask. There is always a profit incentive. Sellers in the market will post their Selling price (the Offers/Ask) which are higher than the market price . Buyers in the market will post their Buying price (the Bid) which are lower than the market price. Would that be right ? Thank you
nope you are wrong.
The bid and offer is the market price.
There is no way trade other than buy the offer and sell the bid.
only peeps can biy the bid sell the offer are market makers.

if the bid is given, and you on the bid. unless the market makers give you way you cannot get a fill , until it overruns the market makers.
vis versa the offer.


regards
  • #51,502
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:54am Jan 16, 2015 2:54am
Quoting fti
{quote} nope you are wrong. The bid and offer is the market price. There is no way trade other than buy the offer and sell the bid.
ok i understand that i am wrong.
there are always 2 prices in a market.
one to buy (the offers/ask) and another to sell (the bid)
  • #51,503
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:59am Jan 16, 2015 2:59am
Quoting fti
{quote} actually real traders trades with out leverage. the leverage is used as hedging instruments mostly. how can it be a total wipe out if no leverage is used? oh cable? "The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it's worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost 99.5% of its value." http://georgewashington2.blogspot.co...-for-fiat.html is nixon a uk president? any way does uk have a president?
with regard to "how can it be a total wipe out if no leverage is used?"

i find it hard to imagine that any account can survive a 1400pip (more, depending on how it is measured) move in a second , unless , yes , its is unleveraged but even then it must be a very very large account with many zeros...
  • #51,504
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:00am Jan 16, 2015 3:00am
i give you example for yu easier understand.
say market price is 10/15
you bid 12.
market trades 10.
do you get a fill?
anyswer is no.
you get fill only if offer is lower than 12.
if after market is given 10 and market price is still 10/15
your 12 bid is only still working.


i hope you can understand now.


regards
  • #51,505
  • Edited 3:39am Jan 16, 2015 3:02am | Edited 3:39am
Quoting fti
i give you example for yu easier understand. say market price is 10/15 you bid 12. market trades 10. do you get a fill? anyswer is no. you get fill only if offer is lower than 12. i hope you can understand now. regards
i am processing what you are telling me ... thinking....
oh man i feel dumb.
and i hope i dont make myself look more dumb in a public forum when i try to think aloud.
order mechanics has never been clear to me
but here goes...
Market price is 10/15
that means the ask / offer ( market will sell to me, i will buy from the market ) is 15
that means the bid (market will buy from me , i will sell to the market ) is 10
a bid and an ask must match for there to be a trade
assuming i bid at 12
that means i am willing to make a price to buy at 12 and so 12 is a buy limit order.

but the market is still transacts at bid of 10
(qn why wouldnt the market take my bid of 12 since it narrows the spread to 12/15 ?)

so after the last bid of 10 is taken, the market price is still 10/15
my bid (offer to buy) of 12 is only taken when the market's ask/offer(offer to sell) currently 15, moves lower than 12
and my 12 buy limit order is still working (waiting to be executed) - this i am clear.

seems like a mess to me, but its what my thought process goes.
please straighten me out, i'm willing to get blasted to bits and will try to reconstruct the logic again thereafter.

thank you.
  • #51,506
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:04am Jan 16, 2015 3:04am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} with regard to "how can it be a total wipe out if no leverage is used?" i find it hard to imagine that any account can survive a 1400pip (more, depending on how it is measured) move in a second , unless , yes , its is unleveraged but even then it must be a very very large account with many zeros...
you seem not understand what capital game is?
you not understand capitalism?


regards
  • #51,507
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:04am Jan 16, 2015 3:04am
@FTI

quote"
CRITICAL NOTICE 15 Jan 2015

The dramatic move on the Swiss franc fueled by the Swiss National Bank's unexpected policy reversal of capping the Swiss franc against the euro has resulted in rare volatility and illiquidity. Both our primary and backup liquidity providers became unresponsive or illiquid for hours after the event. The majority of clients in a franc position were on the losing side and sustained losses amounting to far greater than their account equity. When a client cannot cover their losses it is passed onto us.

ALL OPEN POSITIONS MUST BE CLOSED BY 5PM NEW YORK TIME OR THEY WILL BE AUTOMATICALLY CLOSED AT THAT TIME. NEW POSITIONS CANNOT BE OPENED AS OF THIS TIME.

ALL CLIENT FUNDS ARE IN SEGREGATED ACCOUNTS AND NEVER USED FOR LP MARGINS. OUR PRIMARY CONCERN HAS ALWAYS BEEN PROTECTING CLIENT FUNDS AND 100% OF POSITIVE CLIENT EQUITY OR BALANCE IS SAFE AND WITHDRAWABLE IMMEDIATELY.

*Censor* STP's 100% of order flow and has sustained a total loss of operating capital. *** can no longer meet regulatory minimum capitalization requirements of N$1,000,000 and will not be able to resume business. Losses incurred on trades that could not be exited due to illiquidity were losses incurred directly with the liquidity provider and we do not have the ability to reimburse those. Please note the interbank market for francs was illiquid for hours after the event and no traders with an open franc position were able to close it for a significant period of time, at any broker.

News of the impact of this event on companies and traders is just beginning to come to light. As Directors and Shareholders we would like to offer our sincerest apologies for this devastating turn of events, and to thank you for being such a supportive group.

We ask that you place withdrawal requests for your account balance at your earliest convenience and allow for minor delays as our team begins to experience higher than usual service volumes.

Note: We are currently experiencing hundreds of withdrawal requests. A small percentage of clients have reported errors during the automated withdrawal request process. If you experience a system error please do not panic. Although we are not offer trading services our staff is fully operational and we will not disappear on you. If an error occurs please email us at ***** describing the nature of the issue. We thank you for your patience and for the kind words many of you have already expressed.

"unquote

There...
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #51,508
  • Edited 3:40am Jan 16, 2015 3:08am | Edited 3:40am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} with regard to "how can it be a total wipe out if no leverage is used?" i find it hard to imagine that any account can survive a 1400pip (more, depending on how it is measured) move in a second , unless , yes , its is unleveraged but even then it must be a very very large account with many zeros...
you find hard to understand?
lets say you have $1.
market drop 40 cents.
do you still have the position?

if market drop 40 cents and you have $1 positioned 5cents margined.
Do you survive? you will in fact overloss 35cents. Which they can sue you for.

of course you can try make 40 cents with 5 cents. is easy, just use a robot. you should be get 300+% returns.
good luck to you. you are the clever one?

The rest of us in world , we not clever.
The clever ones can take advantage of OTC structure.


regards
  • #51,509
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:15am Jan 16, 2015 3:15am
my last one done..

... guess gona go test out some brokers now,

@FTI, am wondering if I can speak or ask you in private more about it..?

Thanks
Attached Image
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #51,510
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:26am Jan 16, 2015 3:26am
Quoting RelaxRay
my last one done.. ... guess gona go test out some brokers now, @FTI, am wondering if I can speak or ask you in private more about it..? Thanks {image}

ahhh, talk in secret? dangerous. no?
but i can open my PM for a little see what you need to ask.


Inserted Video


regards
  • #51,511
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:44am Jan 16, 2015 3:44am
Quoting fti
{quote} you seem not understand what capital game is? you not understand capitalism? regards
Its the game of turning a profit from the financial system or business.
would that be right ?
  • #51,512
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:45am Jan 16, 2015 3:45am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} Its the game of turning a profit from the financial system or business. would that be right ?
who is in busoness to give money?
can please introduce to me.
maybe only......

regards
  • #51,513
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:46am Jan 16, 2015 3:46am
Quoting fti
{quote} who is in busoness to lose money? regards
no body wants to lose money
but if one is not savy
the market will take money from you once u r in the game
  • #51,514
  • Edited 4:06am Jan 16, 2015 3:52am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting appleboy
{quote} no body wants to lose money but if one is not savy the market will take money from you once u r in the game
oh someone point gun forced?

Do you know how make fried chicken?
you you show me the process, i can give you master chef badge.

in markets , risk must be managed. remember.
You not want jump out of a good airplane without parachute.
I don't think even a chicken can survive jump out without parachute.
eagles, maybe is possible in certain conditions.

undercertain conditions, some birds can la.
not many. but anyone can try.


regards

eeer what you mean they take.
What is traders mission/job description? give?


Inserted Video
  • #51,515
  • Jan 16, 2015 4:00am Jan 16, 2015 4:00am
Quoting fti
{quote} who is in busoness to give money? can please introduce to me. maybe only...... regards
hi Boss..

There is a proverb: "Everyone is HERO after the battle" .

To be short..

over 3y, brokers and Lazy traders were milking SNB struggle with 1.2..

The "no-brainier" trades I guess, finally got the "mail in the Box".

Not saying that was obvious, what we saw yesterday was a massive move, and we'll see more and more casualties, from Retail Brokers, Insurance, Mortgages up to the Export companies.. ect..


this quote now makes more then ever sense


"Only when the tide goes out, you discover who's been swimming naked." - WarrenBuffett

.....


I
  • #51,516
  • Jan 16, 2015 4:12am Jan 16, 2015 4:12am
Quoting Piters
{quote} hi Boss.. There is a proverb: "Everyone is HERO after the battle" . To be short.. over 3y, brokers and Lazy traders were milking SNB struggle with 1.2.. The "no-brainier" trades I guess, finally got the "mail in the Box". Not saying that was obvious, what we saw yesterday was a massive move, and we'll see more and more casualties, from Retail Brokers, Insurance, Mortgages up to the Export companies.. ect.. this quote now makes more then ever sense "Only when the tide goes out, you discover who's been swimming naked." - WarrenBuffett ........
is ok if one knows underder what circumstances one can survive in and what terrains not to be adventurous with.
is ok if one know how long one can stay in field with the ammo one has.

If one clever swim with the tides, no one will know how naked one is.
Is only foolhardy take a pistol and expect fight tank battles.

But it still does not mean if one has tank one will surely win.
still need skillful managing.

regards
  • #51,517
  • Jan 16, 2015 4:17am Jan 16, 2015 4:17am
Quoting fti
{quote} is ok if one knows underder what circumstances one can survive in and what terrains not to be adventurous with. is ok if one know how long one can stay in field with the ammo one has. If one clever swim with the tides, no one will know how naked one is. Is only foolhardy take a pistol and expect fight tank battles. But it still does not mean if one has tank one will surely win. regards

oh yeah.. true, very true..

I wish you a good health, and lot of Joy, fun and happiness, my friend..


P
  • #51,518
  • Jan 16, 2015 4:27am Jan 16, 2015 4:27am
Breaking :Alpari UK enters insolvency
http://www.alpari.co.uk/client-updat...t-announcement
  • #51,519
  • Jan 16, 2015 4:38am Jan 16, 2015 4:38am
Quoting fxmusa
Breaking :Alpari UK enters insolvency http://www.alpari.co.uk/client-updat...t-announcement
noted.
seems ok.
customer funds still secured. The broking just need to recapitalise if they want to continue function.

Retail client funds continue to be segregated in accordance with FCA rules. - See more at: http://www.alpari.co.uk/client-updat....Sr1HgFrw.dpuf

regards
  • #51,520
  • Jan 16, 2015 4:55am Jan 16, 2015 4:55am
Quoting fti
{quote} noted. seems ok. customer funds still secured. Retail client funds continue to be segregated in accordance with FCA rules. - See more at: http://www.alpari.co.uk/client-updat....Sr1HgFrw.dpuf regards

Wow - bad times for some - peoples jobs at risk. I know it takes ages to get your money back via UK system - but at least you get it back if segregated.

What happens to all the peeps who exceeded their max - does margin call mean their limit of exposure was to the amount in their account and margin call meant trades were closed at that point by broker or do they owe more - how does all this work - just realised that I do not really know about this sort of stuff and I should. How could the broker cope with a bulk situation ie not just 1/2 traders to contact - would they just close all trades down at once?

How much spare capacity do we need in our own MM system for such a day?
check out the terrain - follow never lead
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