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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #51,461
  • Jan 15, 2015 7:53am Jan 15, 2015 7:53am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I was not affected by move - but MM big reminder and never ever ever leave babies alone (not done that so far and so will stick with policy). You are lucky off to Thailand - love the crab and mackerel - great food & nice time of year - I have just come back - missing it already - go for nice massage too https://www.facebook.com/navanaspa/p...type=1&theater
i so jealous.
not so lucky, still stuck with oxy compressor.

regards

no one i spoke to knows why chf did that. but i think some heads going to get rolled for it.
  • #51,462
  • Jan 15, 2015 8:11am Jan 15, 2015 8:11am
i think euro/chf peg is be lifted.
all i can make out is sonone goying to heaven?
i think russian also mentioned.

but i cannot catch what they want with the russians.
  • #51,463
  • Jan 15, 2015 8:16am Jan 15, 2015 8:16am
Quoting fti
{quote} i so jealous. not so lucky, still stuck with oxy compressor. regards no one i spoke to knows why chf did that. but i think some heads going to get rolled for it.

Weird decision chf - is it linked to ECB this/next week? Did they think it through - all of it? Who knows.

So sorry - maybe need a nice massage for calming effects. My Thai sister(sort of) - she watches over her husband's massages like a general - so nothing weird allowed - no funny business - so when I saw the massage house ladies - made me laugh - they'd win a fight against most men. Maybe all traders need a nice massage at end of day.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,464
  • Jan 15, 2015 8:22am Jan 15, 2015 8:22am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Weird decision chf - is it linked to ECB this/next week? Did they think it through - all of it? Who knows. So sorry - maybe need a nice massage for calming effects. My Thai sister(sort of) - she watches over her husband's massages like a general - so nothing weird allowed - no funny business - so when I saw the massage house ladies - made me laugh - they'd win a fight against most men. Maybe all traders need a nice massage at end of day.
i think snb had defended e/chf very vigrously already.
but if ecb keeps pumping on otherside, whats the point.
might as well let the zone get a taste of heaven?
only my opinion.

any swiss speaking friends around?

regards

why would any one fight if get headlocked already. don't want it change to chock hold leh.
In thai, do kick boxing with men, do wrestling with women?
  • #51,465
  • Jan 15, 2015 8:37am Jan 15, 2015 8:37am
Quoting fti
{quote} any swiss speaking friends around?

Hope they are not in the hotel business.



Maybe some singing more relaxing after stressful day.

Inserted Video
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #51,466
  • Jan 15, 2015 8:41am Jan 15, 2015 8:41am
Good day frens, read the news SNB is handing out invitations for their grand duck meat banquet hope you guys sitting on the seat not the plate hor
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,467
  • Jan 15, 2015 8:51am Jan 15, 2015 8:51am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hope they are not in the hotel business. Maybe some singing more relaxing after stressful day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08Tk...TkXmhV_6o#t=70
nice
heng heng.


regards
  • #51,468
  • Edited 9:06am Jan 15, 2015 8:53am | Edited 9:06am
Quoting Jacque
Good day frens, read the news SNB is handing out invitations for their grand duck meat banquet hope you guys sitting on the seat not the plate hor
can't tell yet.
seat warm warm , platter also warm warm.
but good buying , not my soup of the day yet.

regards
  • #51,469
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:04am Jan 15, 2015 9:04am
Quoting fti
{quote} can't tell yet. seat warm warm , platter also warm warm. regards
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id...115_tjn.en.pdf

"...
The minimum exchange rate was introduced during a period of exceptional overvaluation of
the Swiss franc and an extremely high level of uncertainty on the financial markets. This
exceptional and temporary measure protected the Swiss economy from serious harm. While
the Swiss franc is still high, the overvaluation has decreased as a whole since the introduction
of the minimum exchange rate. The economy was able to take advantage of this phase to
adjust to the new situation.
Recently, divergences between the monetary policies of the major currency areas have
increased significantly – a trend that is likely to become even more pronounced. The euro has
depreciated substantially against the US dollar and this, in turn, has caused the Swiss franc to
weaken against the US dollar. In these circumstances, the SNB has concluded that enforcing
and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer
justified.
...
"

with the old peg, it also did not went well...
their banking, I feel have took a hit of late
I feel chf basically ran out of $ doing all those defending...

Oh well, we'll see how it goes..
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #51,470
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:15am Jan 15, 2015 9:15am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id...115_tjn.en.pdf "... The minimum exchange rate was introduced during a period of exceptional overvaluation of the Swiss franc and an extremely high level of uncertainty on the financial markets. This exceptional and temporary measure protected the Swiss economy from serious harm. While the Swiss franc is still high, the overvaluation has decreased as a whole since the introduction of the minimum exchange rate. The economy was able to take advantage of this phase...
ahhhh thank you.

i don't think is ran short of money thing, mostly i think is policy alignment.
Like i was thinking, cannot be keep defending a currency that not want to stand up for itself.
anyway , is my opinion.
I think this very justified.

also uncovered some market liquidity weakness in chf that should be addressed.
the price roller coaster, dang scary. even for spectators.


regards
  • #51,471
  • Jan 15, 2015 9:56am Jan 15, 2015 9:56am
is it safe to come out now and pick on the left overs????????????

regards

Phil.

Attached Image
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,472
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:01am Jan 15, 2015 10:01am
Quoting phil13
is it safe to come out now and pick on the left overs???????????? regards Phil. {image}
hahaha , depends , how sharp is you teeth?
very adventurous hor, pick ny closing .

me no stamina, just watching see if i can smell blood.



regards
  • #51,473
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:07am Jan 15, 2015 10:07am
Quoting fti
{quote} hahaha , depends , how sharp is you teeth? very adventurous hor, pick ny closing . me no stamina, just watching see if i can smell blood. regards
Hi fti

just scouting in case someone needs to save their behind and use the quieter times.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,474
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:15am Jan 15, 2015 10:15am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi fti just scouting in case someone needs to save their behind and use the quieter times. regards Phil.
hey phil, try the 1min on usdchf, the true range is there and wide but beware of the sudden jerks.

good fortune to all and stay safe. good nite.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #51,475
  • Edited 11:56am Jan 15, 2015 10:18am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hey phil, try the 1min on usdchf, the volatility is there but beware of the sudden jerks
Hi Jacque


no no, i will not touch the CHF pairs until it all stabilises a bit.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,476
  • Jan 15, 2015 3:31pm Jan 15, 2015 3:31pm
Guess what guys, my broker have sadly gone bust. Making my withdrawals...
Guys, you should check and call if your account is fine too.

Looking for a new broker now!
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #51,477
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:12pm Jan 15, 2015 10:12pm
Quoting RelaxRay
Guess what guys, my broker have sadly gone bust. Making my withdrawals... Guys, you should check and call if your account is fine too. Looking for a new broker now!
Oh if you using MAS regulated brokers you shouldn't need worry.
Your depos are in segegated accounts and MAS will protect that for you.

regards
  • #51,478
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:26pm Jan 15, 2015 10:26pm
but is not busted,i heard is , just some abnomalities with liquidity provider.
Can be ironed out amongst honourable peeps, maybe.

broking should not be affected. market makers will be.
I think, thats really why broking shouldn't market make.
broking should just marry trades. market making is another kettle of fish mostly.

spoted a lesson that every trader should know.

"I was one of loosing traders. My stop lost was triger but executed ~2700 pionts below. "

"unfortunately there is not much to do in this case. According to an EBS statement issued earlier today, in the aftermath of the SNB announcement, rates dropped to around 0.8500, which is very close to where your stop loss got executed. This is part of risk taking on any markets – stop loss orders can not be guaranteed in extreme conditions." - See more at: http://forexmagnates.com/breaking-ig....rStPjRhG.dpuf
  • #51,479
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:26pm Jan 15, 2015 10:26pm
Hmm, i was not in a chf trade, but my eurusd positions look to usdchf for "confirmation" since they are inversely correlated. - this is just a peek hahaa.
but from the unpegging of the chf from euro, seems that no amount of babysitting can help if these events occur.
if one is on the wrong side of chf, and an event like this occurs, its a total wipe out with or without leverage.
i guess luck does play a part in trading.

one question fti, you mentioned that you would rather stay in GBP as it is not fiat.
I understand the Euro is fiat. but isnt GBP fiat too ?
am i missing something ?
  • #51,480
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:31pm Jan 15, 2015 10:31pm
Quoting fti
but is not busted,i heard is , just some abnomalities with liquidity provider. Can be ironed out amongst honourable peeps, maybe. broking should not be affected. market makers will be. I think, thats really why broking shouldn't market make. broking should just marry trades. market making is another kettle of fish mostly. spoted a lesson that every trader should know. "I was one of loosing traders. My stop lost was triger but executed ~2700 pionts below. " "unfortunately there is not much to do in this case. According to an EBS statement issued...
So that means its useless to trade with stops.

your equity margin call is your "stop".

this also means that all trading capital should be risk capital.

if such an event happens ( account killed by a -2700 pip move OMG black swan event ) , don't cry, cos it you cant take the heat, stay out of the kitchen ?
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