Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 257 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,121
  • Jan 12, 2015 5:27am Jan 12, 2015 5:27am
Hi, panoramia

When you trade the cross pairs, do you check the related main pair?

for example, you plan to trade EURGBP, then would you check the EURUSD and GBPUSD first , or just concentrate on EURGBP?
  • #5,122
  • Jan 12, 2015 6:03am Jan 12, 2015 6:03am
Quoting cnnewt61
Hi, panoramia When you trade the cross pairs, do you check the related main pair? for example, you plan to trade EURGBP, then would you check the EURUSD and GBPUSD first , or just concentrate on EURGBP?
No, I don't check that AT ALL. Each pair is different, I just trade what I see on each pair. I don't care what EURUSD is doing if I want to trade EUR/GBP or any other euro cross pair. It's indifferent, imbalances are independent to each currency pair. Sometimes they are similar, others they are not. I just trade what I see.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,123
  • Jan 12, 2015 6:04am Jan 12, 2015 6:04am
Quoting rickyfx
Thank you sir actually i am studying ur strategy after 1 year just watching old videos but i notice some rules changes so i need to get grip on that but before that i need to recap the basic. {quote}
Rule have not changed, they have been fine tuned . The 50% dotted basing candle has been added as a mechanical way of locating basing at supply and demand zones. They will help you a lot to locate zones and correct basing areas.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,124
  • Jan 12, 2015 6:49am Jan 12, 2015 6:49am
Hi Alfonso,

I have a question in regards to supply area on AUD/USD chart attached. The chart is attached.

I have marked three areas of supply A,B,C ? Are they valid ?

My main query is if B is valid or not and if its not what is the main reason ? The low of fall from point B did break the previous low.




Thanks
JJ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 55 KB
  • #5,125
  • Jan 12, 2015 7:12pm Jan 12, 2015 7:12pm
Quoting JumanJi
Hi Alfonso, I have a question in regards to supply area on AUD/USD chart attached. The chart is attached. I have marked three areas of supply A,B,C ? Are they valid ? My main query is if B is valid or not and if its not what is the main reason ? The low of fall from point B did break the previous low. Thanks JJ {image}
Non of them are valid JJ. Remember a very important thing, MULTIPLE TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS. A single timeframe is not enough.

Bigger picture trend for AUD/USD is down, but we need to lean on valid levels of supply. You uploaded and showed H4 supply zones, but what about Daily and Weekly zones? You must know what is going on in those to make a decision.

  1. Daily supply zone where those H4 supply zones was not fresh, no H4 zones were invalidated by that
  2. Trendline and H4 supply zone removed. Not valid supply because H4 trendline was broken, so we need to wait for Daily supply zone to take shorts, but daily was not fresh
  3. Last H4 supply did not remove any demand area and didn't make a lower low. Price is reacting to Monthly demand zone, a zone you have not drawn so I guess you may not not aware of that fact

See attachment. I've mentioned many times in previous posts and webinars that multiple timeframe analysis is compulsory to make a decision. The rules require that, you shouldn't make a decision without analysis imbalances on at least 3 timeframes and assess the trend and the sequence.

Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 146 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,126
  • Jan 12, 2015 7:40pm Jan 12, 2015 7:40pm
Hi Alfonso,


The area B actually broke the previous low by one pip but as you said it was directly into daily demand and there is no short there.

Thanks for your detailed reply. I will post Multi Time frame analysis in future.

Need lot of practice to make right demand and supply zones.

Thanks
JJ
  • #5,127
  • Jan 12, 2015 8:44pm Jan 12, 2015 8:44pm
hi Alfonso & all,
hope ya'll had great holidays. I am back to trading, wanted to share couple of trades i am in recently.
Got trigered on AUDUSD ..h4. Since we are very low in monthly curve, i am looking for long shorter term trades. If it turns out as planned may end up with nice profit

Second trade..USDCHF...very high in montly curve, looking for short trades as of now. Wanted to take trade from H4, but level was too wide. Drilled it down to 1H.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH4.png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH1.png Size: 23 KB
  • #5,128
  • Jan 12, 2015 11:44pm Jan 12, 2015 11:44pm
EURCAD
@Alfonso @all

Is this a correct way to look at chart ? are all the level plotted correctly ?

Question : If a swing level ( RBD/DBR) broke trendline and take out some CP pattern but didn't make any lower low or higher high, then is that Swing level is valid to trade ? because of this confusion i didn't plot level on daily chart.

Monthly
http://s24.postimg.org/6kh9sq4md/screenshot_314.png
screengrab

Weekly
http://s24.postimg.org/932yteqcl/screenshot_315.png
screengrab

Daily
http://s24.postimg.org/rjxdk86at/screenshot_316.png
screengrab

H4
http://s24.postimg.org/l7i8ae38l/screenshot_317.png
screengrab
  • #5,129
  • Jan 13, 2015 4:25am Jan 13, 2015 4:25am
XAUUSD
Monthly
Which one should be considered as supply in control ? Level B has taken out one CP level. Can i consider level B as RBD

http://s24.postimg.org/6zx4zhfxh/screenshot_322.png
screengrab

Weekly
http://s24.postimg.org/jsl8zerj9/screenshot_323.png
screengrab

Daily
Is the supply level A is valid for trade ?
Is the level B is a valid demand level ?

http://s24.postimg.org/teetfpip1/screenshot_324.png
screengrab
  • #5,130
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:35am Jan 13, 2015 5:35am
Quoting PipUpYrDay
hi Alfonso & all, hope ya'll had great holidays. I am back to trading, wanted to share couple of trades i am in recently. Got trigered on AUDUSD ..h4. Since we are very low in monthly curve, i am looking for long shorter term trades. If it turns out as planned may end up with nice profit Second trade..USDCHF...very high in montly curve, looking for short trades as of now. Wanted to take trade from H4, but level was too wide. Drilled it down to 1H. {image} {image} {image}
Nice counter-trend trades. You did a good job there my friend! Thanks for sharing those entries with us
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,131
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:41am Jan 13, 2015 5:41am
Quoting rickyfx
XAUUSD Monthly Which one should be considered as supply in control ? Level B has taken out one CP level. Can i consider level B as RBD {image} screengrab Weekly {image} screengrab Daily Is the supply level A is valid for trade ? Is the level B is a valid demand level ? {image} screengrab
A couple of comments on your charts my friend...

MONTHLY CHART

  1. The level that causes the break of a TL is automatically considered a level without removing an opposing zone.
  2. After 3 CPs, we are allowed draw a more aggresive trendline, trendline is broken and there was a valid short on the MN and also WK and Daily chart reacting to those levels
  3. Monthly demand zone right below an important MN flip zone

My question, what yould be the bigger picture trend on EUR/CAD and what would be your bias?
Cheers,
Alfonso


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 402 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,132
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:43am Jan 13, 2015 5:43am
Quoting rickyfx
XAUUSD Monthly Which one should be considered as supply in control ? Level B has taken out one CP level. Can i consider level B as RBD {image} screengrab Weekly {image} screengrab Daily Is the supply level A is valid for trade ? Is the level B is a valid demand level ? {image} screengrab
A level in control is a valid level that has taken out an opposing zone and/or broken a trendline that price has not managed to remove yet. A level will be in control as long as it's being respected, if broken, then that level will no longer be in control, there will be probably an opposing level in control in that same timeframe or another one.

Makes sense?
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,133
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:20am Jan 13, 2015 7:20am
thank you for the reply.
u draw a new demand zone on a CP pattern ! as trendline broken aren't we not allowed to draw level on CP pattern ?

//My question, what yould be the bigger picture trend on EUR/CAD and what would be your bias?//

Monthly trend clearly down as trendline still intact .

Weekly also looking down to me though movement looks sideways but as per trendline trend still down i guess. ( trendline theory not 100% clear to me now. Downloaded 2 video on trendline those might help me to understand more)

Daily Trendline broken and tookout 1 CP pattern i guess so new demand formed on daily with good departure

H4 Trendline broken and formed a CP pattern

My bias will be bullish on EURCAD though bigger picture still suggest bearish but we are not very high on the curve .

http://s24.postimg.org/hkbnvt9t1/screenshot_327.png
screengrab

Quoting panoramia
{quote} A couple of comments on your charts my friend... MONTHLY CHART The level that causes the break of a TL is automatically considered a level without removing an opposing zone. After 3 CPs, we are allowed draw a more aggresive trendline, trendline is broken and there was a valid short on the MN and also WK and Daily chart reacting to those levels Monthly demand zone right below an important MN flip zone My question, what yould be the bigger picture trend on EUR/CAD and what would be your bias? Cheers, Alfonso {image}
  • #5,134
  • Jan 13, 2015 10:18am Jan 13, 2015 10:18am
Quoting rickyfx
thank you for the reply. u draw a new demand zone on a CP pattern ! as trendline broken aren't we not allowed to draw level on CP pattern ? //My question, what yould be the bigger picture trend on EUR/CAD and what would be your bias?// Monthly trend clearly down as trendline still intact . Weekly also looking down to me though movement looks sideways but as per trendline trend still down i guess. ( trendline theory not 100% clear to me now. Downloaded 2 video on trendline those might help me to understand more) Daily Trendline broken and tookout...
A zone is a zone my friend, a trendline does NOT influence on what zones to draw. A zone is a zone, remember.

Price is at a MN demand zone on EUR/CAD. You say MN trend is down, but I don't see that as per the rules. In order to have a downtrend we need at least 2 areas of demand removed and/or a valid descending TL on the MN with 1 DZ removed. We hit a valid MN DZ, we have to respect it, too low in the curve. Anything can happen, bias is shorts but some longs could happen as well. MN DZ is not well formed, it could penetrate it further.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,135
  • Jan 14, 2015 12:58am Jan 14, 2015 12:58am
here is my EURCAD. Counter trend trade+1/2 position taken off, letting it run with stop loss at break even+spread
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADH4.png Size: 26 KB
  • #5,136
  • Jan 14, 2015 5:20am Jan 14, 2015 5:20am
Quoting panoramia
Remember the gold short trade that was covered in last webinar? Still holding and dropping as we were talking in that webinar. I didn't take that short because I usually don't trade Gold but it was taken by other traders. Find below the updated chart, it's not one of my trades by it follows the rules one by one. Multiple timeframe analysis on Gold: Monthly clearly down, Trendline being respected Weekly clearly down, Trendline being respected D1 was up at the moment of entry Price realigned with Monthly/Weekly downtrend. Realignment rules by the...
Hi Alfonso,
How did you draw the Demand Zone (blue) on the following Gold chart (Rules)?
Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold.jpg Size: 227 KB
  • #5,137
  • Jan 14, 2015 11:57am Jan 14, 2015 11:57am
Hey Lakis,
there is no tradable level on D1 (marked as blue on your chart). Go ahead and take a look at H4 chart I this case drilling it down to lower time frame is way to go
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDH4.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDDaily.png Size: 68 KB
  • #5,138
  • Jan 14, 2015 12:37pm Jan 14, 2015 12:37pm
Hello traders and alfonso,

This is my chfjpy analysis

Monthly is UP
Weekly is UP
Daily is Down (MN/WK nested demand zone)

Monthly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly.png Size: 52 KB


Weekly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.png Size: 49 KB


Daily:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.png Size: 53 KB
  • #5,139
  • Jan 14, 2015 11:29pm Jan 14, 2015 11:29pm
Hi,

I am a new member with this forum. I have read through initial pages and really liked the work Alphonso and the team are doing. Really appreciate the knowledge sharing. I would like to know where I can download the indicator that will highlight the basing candles on the chart, i.e. plotting a white dot in the middle of basing candles as seen in supply/demand video? Appreciate the help in advance.

Thanks,
Nitin
  • #5,140
  • Jan 15, 2015 6:05am Jan 15, 2015 6:05am
Quoting PipUpYrDay
Hey Lakis, there is no tradable level on D1 (marked as blue on your chart). Go ahead and take a look at H4 chart I this case drilling it down to lower time frame is way to go {image} {image}
Thanks a lot
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