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Let's Trade Options

  • #6,641
  • Edited 9:32pm Jan 12, 2015 9:03pm | Edited 9:32pm
comparable double calendar is worse...I'll be skipping INTC.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,642
  • Jan 13, 2015 12:42am Jan 13, 2015 12:42am
/ES up $4.50 early, fiber backing down and dollar/yen turning up a little, need that USD strength to cut the run in gold, will be checking US equities at the Tues open, maybe try to get in a jan/jan 4 bull call diag
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,643
  • Jan 13, 2015 1:14am Jan 13, 2015 1:14am
/cl bwb w/puts, bets on a bottom in the low $40's

http://screencast.com/t/nN9gxZ7t
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,644
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:04am Jan 13, 2015 6:04am
Quoting The Fool
/ES up $4.50 early, fiber backing down and dollar/yen turning up a little, need that USD strength to cut the run in gold, will be checking US equities at the Tues open, maybe try to get in a jan/jan 4 bull call diag {image}

Gold climbs as investors seek refuge from volatility

Refuge from volatility?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,645
  • Jan 13, 2015 9:14am Jan 13, 2015 9:14am
Quoting The Fool
/ES up $4.50 early, fiber backing down and dollar/yen turning up a little, need that USD strength to cut the run in gold, will be checking US equities at the Tues open, maybe try to get in a jan/jan 4 bull call diag {image}
I think we're in for a $ pullback taking GOLD past $1300,
  • #6,646
  • Jan 13, 2015 10:26am Jan 13, 2015 10:26am
JPM and WFC have ER's tomorrow BMO.

I don' have any directional assumption there. EM on both stocks is ~2.5% Not enough juice in options for short strangle. There will be the same for C and BAC.
So, if you want to sell something AND be non-directional, you can basically just sell straddle, OR Iron Fly as risk defined trade. Both stocks have options with $0.5 strikes... maybe I will do something on one of them.

For example:
if JPM sticks around $59.50 ---> Iron Fly Jan 56/59.50 + 59.50/63

if WFC sticks around $52 ---> Iron Fly Jan 49/52 + 52/55...

hm...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,647
  • Jan 13, 2015 10:43am Jan 13, 2015 10:43am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I think we're in for a $ pullback taking GOLD past $1300,
will be temporary if Draghi comes through next week with big big QE from the ECB, but gold is looking pretty fresh...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,648
  • Jan 13, 2015 10:58am Jan 13, 2015 10:58am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} will be temporary if Draghi comes through next week with big big QE from the ECB, but gold is looking pretty fresh...
Draghi a.k.a. "not have a full punchbowl"

Nice slide in indices... /ES down to 2006.50 ...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,649
  • Jan 13, 2015 11:35am Jan 13, 2015 11:35am
Quoting StrayDog
Buy volatility idea VIX Jan 19/20 bull call spread for $0.23 debit? Add-on II (bought some @ $0.22)
Closed that spread for $0.45.

After watching that TT vid about VIX options, I learned that to achieve a full profit, actually VIX futures price must be above spread, not only VIX... so I don't know what will be in one week period, since VIX options expires on Jan 20... will look to reload.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,650
  • Jan 13, 2015 12:30pm Jan 13, 2015 12:30pm
Interesting skew on SPX options... I was just looking for possible range for the year.
This is just illustrating where is SPX 1st standard deviation, based on current option IV and all...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX_Dec31-2015_1SD.PNG Size: 471 KB


Puts are 10 times more expensive... I didn't realized that, was thinking like 4 or 5 times...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,651
  • Jan 13, 2015 1:14pm Jan 13, 2015 1:14pm
Freakishly, many of my spread trades are looking good. I need the market to just tread water, maybe slide a little until the end of the week
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,652
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:14pm Jan 13, 2015 7:14pm
Quoting The Fool
Freakishly, many of my spread trades are looking good. I need the market to just tread water, maybe slide a little until the end of the week
MU double calendar needs to settle on $31 by Friday close so I can make $100+. Paid $0.23 for this dc, about $0.15 too much, I'd say. If MU slides below $30, I will have to close for peanuts.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,653
  • Edited Jan 14, 2015 6:27am Jan 13, 2015 7:34pm | Edited Jan 14, 2015 6:27am
GLD diag has 3 days to make good, I need gold to drop $10+ to get into decent money.../GC dropping a little overnight...looking for GLD $115.50-$116, will have to close if GLD runs over $119.00....this was a better trade, a $0.05 debit entry...

$199/$120 call diag coming due also, paid $7, looks good to make >$150
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,654
  • Jan 13, 2015 9:47pm Jan 13, 2015 9:47pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper...021439388.html

"The global economy is at a disconcerting juncture," World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu told reporters. "It is as challenging a moment as it gets for economic forecasting." <<<LOL>>>

Likewise, investors are wagering the Federal Reserve will find it hard to start tightening in the middle of the year, as some policy members have suggested.
In just the past three weeks, Fed fund futures have priced out 25 basis points of hikes for this year and now see just one move to 0.5 percent by Christmas.
The risk of low inflation for longer has in turn pulled down bond yields globally, with five-year debt in Germany and Japan now paying nothing at all.
One side effect of plunging bond yields is to make gold more attractive as an alternative investment.

Since gold does not pay a return, an opportunity cost for holding it is the yield forgone on safe-haven bonds. Now, that cost has diminished to the point where buying gold offers the same return as lending money to Germany for five years." ......(naught from naught leaves naught.)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,655
  • Jan 14, 2015 6:41am Jan 14, 2015 6:41am
The green part took my interest this morning also, didn't see it that way before :-)

Today, INTC IV for 16jan looks more interesting for setting up a spread, doesn't it?
  • #6,656
  • Jan 14, 2015 6:48am Jan 14, 2015 6:48am
Quoting Vermeer
The green part took my interest this morning also, didn't see it that way before :-) Today, INTC IV for 16jan looks more interesting for setting up a spread, doesn't it?
Hi Vermeer!
What are you have in mind for INTC?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,657
  • Edited 7:16am Jan 14, 2015 6:58am | Edited 7:16am
Still looking for something, IB Strategy Lab proposes the following combo:

But I prefer a diagonal with a credit tbh, can't find it yet

Edit: Maybe the Jan 23 37 - Jan 36.5 diagonal for a credit of 0.10-14...
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  • #6,658
  • Jan 14, 2015 7:47am Jan 14, 2015 7:47am
Hm, that is ATM call calendar + ATM put calendar... Double ATM calendar?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,659
  • Jan 14, 2015 8:07am Jan 14, 2015 8:07am
Got some of the above mentioned INTC diagonal for $0.12 credit. Not much but let's see what happens...
  • #6,660
  • Jan 14, 2015 9:23am Jan 14, 2015 9:23am
Quoting Vermeer
Got some of the above mentioned INTC diagonal for $0.12 credit. Not much but let's see what happens...
I'm a little shy about a atm diagonal like that - INTC has em of $1.5, it has popped $3 at times, there's gonna be a 5-10% iv drop & that is gonna bring in the b/e on that diagonal to about $37.5 - if we get the em to the upside, you will have to cover. Hope I'm wrong and/or INTC drops, good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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