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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #17,161
  • Jan 12, 2015 7:24pm Jan 12, 2015 7:24pm
Quoting infinitus
Since the recent consolidation drags out too long, and would not fit anymore (the right view) into an ending diagonal, I have decided to re-lable the green 5 of pink 3 a bit. In this view we are now in wave 4 up, which may have been finished already. {image}
In this count I watch 1.1933 for end wave 4
  • #17,162
  • Jan 12, 2015 11:34pm Jan 12, 2015 11:34pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Did The Fed Ignite The "Irresponsibility" Of US Oil Over-Supply?
  • #17,163
  • Jan 13, 2015 1:05am Jan 13, 2015 1:05am
http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2015...-january-2015/

EWF about EU
  • #17,164
  • Jan 13, 2015 1:06am Jan 13, 2015 1:06am
will not be much around the until Thursday evening. Am on a business trip and a bit busy
  • #17,165
  • Jan 13, 2015 1:09am Jan 13, 2015 1:09am
EWF about GU

http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2015...-january-2015/
  • #17,166
  • Jan 13, 2015 1:33am Jan 13, 2015 1:33am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Lirum larum... He's talking bullshit, as always. The treaty of Lissabon excludes the option to leave. http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/f...keit-1.1321101 Why else did Britain never participate? They're much wiser over there.

Zuerst:

Pacta sunt servanda

dann:


Das Übereinkommen von 1969 legt in Artikel 54 fest, dass der Rücktritt von Verträgen "nur nach Maßgabe der Vertragsbestimmungen" oder "jederzeit durch Einvernehmen zwischen allen Vertragsparteien" möglich ist.


und dann


Theoretisch bliebe nur noch der "Wegfall der Geschäftsgrundlage" etwa durch eine tiefgreifende Veränderung der EU oder den Austritt eines oder mehrerer Staaten aus der Union.


Oxymoron?


Rulkes are meant to be broken - war schon immer so


Germani, quorum oppidum a Graecis deletum est, leo arma movet
  • #17,167
  • Jan 13, 2015 3:41am Jan 13, 2015 3:41am
Infinitus ill check your links will report later.

Update on chart front: I am not longer hoping for any stronger anti-USD retracement across pairs, h4 now says everywhere we go down against dollar. Back to ole shorting thing.
  • #17,168
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:19am Jan 13, 2015 5:19am
Quoting infinitus
EWF about GU http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2015...-january-2015/
Strange reaction on the count of GU. It looks that is has done the first alternate hourly count. But it hasn't gone to the target (50,52). Should we consider the account is over as it is again at 51,xxx ?
  • #17,169
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:14am Jan 13, 2015 7:14am
Quoting tahshoon
{image}{image}{image} my view,talking about GBPJPY :
GBPJPY now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: said.jpg Size: 231 KB
  • #17,170
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:09am Jan 13, 2015 8:09am
To me dollar structurally has already broke higher, and wants to form further up trend.
http://prntscr.com/5rykve

Careful longing EU long term, it shouldnt work.
  • #17,171
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:42am Jan 13, 2015 8:42am
Putin: “Negotiating with Obama is like playing chess with a pigeon. The pigeon knocks over all the pieces, shits on the board, and then struts around like it won the game.”

Taken from a comment on one of infintus' articles. lmfao
  • #17,172
  • Jan 13, 2015 9:46am Jan 13, 2015 9:46am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ed-look-better

Hey when have we heard that before? Oh right it was 2005 onwards with help of GS. Modern style fiat economics, if data is not good, make it look good. Throw out stuff here and there, add that, bam shiny 5% GDP and all FF gurus are gona carry you on their arms not doubting one big in numbers.
  • #17,173
  • Jan 13, 2015 10:01am Jan 13, 2015 10:01am
Guys what you think of this. a) I wanna long USD b) Wanted to diversify exposure to other instruments than EUR. So sold few GUs. Not much really, but now am thinking if ECB eases, to which countries capital flies the fastest? Imo it is a) Swiss b) Brittain c)not sure, perhaps NOK? I will be glad if you help me with this.
And now take a look on EUR/GBP monthly, where we are.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,174
  • Jan 13, 2015 10:32am Jan 13, 2015 10:32am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Guys what you think of this. a) I wanna long USD b) Wanted to diversify exposure to other instruments than EUR. So sold few GUs. Not much really, but now am thinking if ECB eases, to which countries capital flies the fastest? Imo it is a) Swiss b) Brittain c)not sure, perhaps NOK? I will be glad if you help me with this. And now take a look on EUR/GBP monthly, where we are. T
Tom, NOK already gave signal they will cut rates further soon due to droping oil so with rates droping i dont think it will be that much of outflow there.
GU is least i would short becouse on h4 i dont see any solid signal for short, quite oposite at moment looks dangerously close to break higher, but it might not last long, not sure. Swiss is cuting rates and on 22nd will deliver details about negative deposit rates and with ECHF floor maintained it shouldnt be that much of outflow either. With ECB easing it should press down on GBP aswell due to dollar strenght that will come from EUR drop.
I would say best bet is USD capital flow / USA. Simply they have at moment only policy inclined towards positive currency so its no brainer, even though some other countries are closer and might serve as more traditional outflows like Swiss. So dollar long. But since you are short EUR already that is not diversification hehe, its modern type of hedge funds hedge...one sided hedge
  • #17,175
  • Jan 13, 2015 10:40am Jan 13, 2015 10:40am
I started opening those GUs on 6th January, on break of 1,52 and now just reloaded on retest. But am thinking it may not be such a good idea coz ECB easing could push some cash into GB and we break 1,52 up.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,176
  • Jan 13, 2015 10:47am Jan 13, 2015 10:47am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I started opening those GUs on 6th January, on break of 1,52 and now just reloaded on retest. But am thinking it may not be such a good idea coz ECB easing could push some cash into GB and we break 1,52 up.
Yep thats what i think aswell. EGBP weekly break will add fuel to fire for GU rally if it happens.
  • #17,177
  • Jan 13, 2015 11:14am Jan 13, 2015 11:14am
Quoting Pharm0r
Putin: “Negotiating with Obama is like playing chess with a pigeon. The pigeon knocks over all the pieces, shits on the board, and then struts around like it won the game.” Taken from a comment on one of infintus' articles. lmfao

nice catch - made my day
  • #17,178
  • Jan 13, 2015 11:43am Jan 13, 2015 11:43am
GU daily TF

overall the counts look shitty for me LOL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 48 KB
  • #17,179
  • Jan 13, 2015 12:04pm Jan 13, 2015 12:04pm
Quoting janpec1000
Yep thats what i think aswell. EGBP weekly break will add fuel to fire for GU rally if it happens.
Think am gonna deleverage a bit on GU. After EU breaks lows and pulls us down a bit here . Lets say @ 1,51.

Edit: Thx for chart Infinitus!
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,180
  • Jan 13, 2015 12:11pm Jan 13, 2015 12:11pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Turkish President's Stunning Outburst: The French Are Behind The Charlie Hebdo Massacre; Mossad Blamed


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