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Quantify the market - breakout or fakeout

  • #21
  • Dec 19, 2014 5:11pm Dec 19, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting Isingh
{quote} Well.., after a second and third (and even further) look(s) at the posts of Alexx I beg this thread farewell... Still -good pips to all !
I am a bit busy but when I can I answer.
We can start from this law of newton:
"For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction."
What does it mean for you? You and everybody here.
Let's see if we have the same idea about it.
  • #22
  • Dec 19, 2014 9:19pm Dec 19, 2014 9:19pm
Quoting metta87
I read your first post, then i went straight to your subscription list, and i wasnt surprised to see crucialpoint there.
Why? What's wrong subscribing to CrucialPoint?
By the way, if your still having emotional outburst and need to vent it out, you shouldn't be trading. That's not a personal attack on you, that's a serious advice in trading psychology (controlling your emotions) .

Look, let's put your emotions aside for a moment and actually stick to the thread.
Isn't that just, a more intellectual thing to do, rather than bash people that has nothing to do with the thread discussion?

I really would love you to reply about "Quantifying the Market". Why is that not a sound and logical approach to you?
Here take a look at the picture below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Order flow is about quantifying the market. I'm pretty sure these traders quantifies breakout and fake outs (because that's how I do it and because nobody lets that cat out of the bag)... its just all hush hush and a big secret . Look, I admit to all, I'm human and I'm not perfect. "I was naive; I thought all the information was out there, transparent, for everyone to access. I thought that they tell you everything you need to know to be successful. There are NO secrets, there are NO groups who are in the know who does not share....." Thinking so is being naive.

======================
If you don't have access to order flow, that doesn't mean that it is game over. If you don't have a spirit level, it doesn't mean you won't be able to level a table. And if you can't level a table without a spirit level, then, MAY GOD HAVE MERCY ON YOUR SOUL!

If you have order flow, it is simply transcribing that into another form of visual indicator. When I transcribe Multi TF into one TF, it was basically the same process. Of course you are going to have to think about how to transcribe it into another form. It is reverse-engineering. You can breakdown multiplication with division, breaking down addition with subtraction, etc. You can breakdown Order Flow with momentum and vice versa because they go hand in hand: Without order flow, there is no momentum, without momentum there is no order flow. It just depends which angle you look at it. Which came first, the chicken or the egg? It doesn't matter, the egg produces the chicken and the chicken produces the egg Order flow and momentum >>> certain deviations and sigmas. Certain deviations and sigmas >>>> Order flow and momentum.
  • #23
  • Dec 20, 2014 10:38am Dec 20, 2014 10:38am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} Why? What's wrong subscribing to CrucialPoint? By the way, if your still having emotional outburst and need to vent it out, you shouldn't be trading. That's not a personal attack on you, that's a serious advice in trading psychology (controlling your emotions) . Look, let's put your emotions aside for a moment and actually stick to the thread. Isn't that just, a more intellectual thing to do, rather than bash people that has nothing to do with the thread discussion? I really would love you to reply about "Quantifying the Market"....

Hi CP,

I believe the poster was not being negative just pointing out that your posts are clearly what has inspired the thread starter. I say that because when I read the opening posts it was repeating many of the things that I have read in your posts.

Enjoyed your posts/videos/links as they got me thinking in different ways. Momentum is something I definitely want to add to my toolkit.

Here are some thoughts I wanted to share with this thread as I am currently interested in developing my own momentum tool. In the physical world the equation for momentum is based on mass and velocity. Velocity is speed with direction. In Forex velocity is made easy because as CP shows we only have two directions...up or down. Mundane statement but sometimes that can be clouded by the illusion created by time-based charts. As for mass I am not sure how relevant it is to any momentum tool in Forex but I was thinking it could be worth looking at tick volume. Not sure how useful tick volume is on lower time frames but there are some reports that show that on higher time-frames the correlation between tick volume and real volume in Forex is very close (I know we have a de-centralised market so real volume is hard to get data for). Attached is a report I found interesting. Again not suggesting that this is what CP is using as part of his momentum calculation just something we may want to incorporate into our own tools or at least look into.

Regards

Neio
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf fxvolume tick volume vs real volume study.pdf   552 KB | 4,751 downloads
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #24
  • Dec 29, 2014 10:18am Dec 29, 2014 10:18am
I ended up with a question yesterday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Take for example my avatar (this image), the nautilus grows with a proportion of "1.02".

Attached Image

Take this circle (any circle), the relation between diameter and perimeter is PI "3.14".

There are things around us that we see and things that we don't see, but this doesn't mean they are less important.
They are part of visible things and they express the behaviours.

My question is: what are behaviours of market?
I will not consider any reply about something that is purely visible (technical analysis for example).
To find something new you have also to suppose something, and I am supposing that there is a "code" behind market, there is a why and a what.

Alex
  • #25
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:49am Dec 30, 2014 6:49am
Attached Image


This morning I was walking with a green marker on my hand and I thought:
there are X people and each one has to choose a color from green or red;
suppose the result is green.
Do I need to know how many chose green?
What can I do with that result (green)?
Is it really important if 55% or 70% chose green?

Alex
  • #26
  • Jan 9, 2015 12:07pm Jan 9, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting alexx90
{image} This morning I was walking with a green marker on my hand and I thought: there are X people and each one has to choose a color from green or red; suppose the result is green. Do I need to know how many chose green? What can I do with that result (green)? Is it really important if 55% or 70% chose green? Alex
The question is wrong: you cannot know how many will choose green nor how many will choose red; you cannot know either which will be the result.
The only thing you can know is that in the case you have presented there are two possibilities: which one of them will become true it will depend on what you are doing in the present moment.
  • #27
  • Jan 9, 2015 12:35pm Jan 9, 2015 12:35pm
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  • #28
  • Jan 11, 2015 5:07am Jan 11, 2015 5:07am
There are certain things that affect our present moment, our reality. I was thinking of me and some choices I made in the past, and I found something interesting. My choices were dictated by something in that present moment. For example. Last year you used to eat ice cream with chocolate but today you are in the ice cream parlor with your friends, and you are the last one to take the ice cream. Some of your friends take coconut ice and some cream ice, and then it's your turn. Your choice is more influenced by your friends' choices in that present moment than from your past. This means that we are influenced by a certain degree, by a certain number of variables in our present moment.
Now I want to add one concept about our mind. Mind doesn't perceive difference from past present and future, it works always the same when it receives a stimulus. What you can imagine and what you can see, for your mind is the same. I use this concept to say that present moment is more important than past and future (for our mind) because we receive a lot of stimulus in the present.
At this point I'm trying to figure out how many stimulus are really important for our mind in the present? 7? 10? 50? How many stimulus dictate our choices?

Alex
  • #29
  • Jan 11, 2015 11:45am Jan 11, 2015 11:45am
Quoting alexx90
There are certain things that affect our present moment, our reality. I was thinking of me and some choices I made in the past, and I found something interesting. My choices were dictated by something in that present moment. For example. Last year you used to eat ice cream with chocolate but today you are in the ice cream parlor with your friends, and you are the last one to take the ice cream. Some of your friends take coconut ice and some cream ice, and then it's your turn. Your choice is more influenced by your friends' choices in that present...
Correct. For the sake of precision, our mind cannot distinguish the real from the unreal, the image you got in a dream has the same value of an image about something that really happened.
So our mind is the responsible of our reality, there is not an objective reality, there is only the reality that each of us creates with his mind.
W do not see with our eyes, they are only a tool that transfers informations to the mind; then the mind relates the informations received with its memory archieve and compaires the new information with its informations already present in its archieve and then it creates the reality.
There is a true story very interesting about this: in the antiques, when Colombo with his caravelles came to south America, the indigens did not saw the ships presenting them at the horizon line, for none of them did ever see a ship; they did not have in their minds the concept of ship. They were seeing only the sea.
It was their shaman that noticing a different rithm of the waves realized that what was coming in from the sea should have been something new.
Therefore it's not a matter of how many stimulus, it's a matter of the kind of stimulus and of what you perceive.
First of all it's a matter of what you believe, if you are requested to change how you look at things, you have to forget your old believes and create new ones.

Said that, i do not like to post here about this topic, so this will be my last post; however you know how to contact me if and when you like
  • #30
  • Jan 11, 2015 11:48am Jan 11, 2015 11:48am
quality, well ive bought spuds
  • #31
  • Jan 11, 2015 5:27pm Jan 11, 2015 5:27pm
Going through this thread, I've come to the conclusion that the op is the Jaden Smith of forex. He spends his time trying to sound smart with intellectual babble and trying to make his vague question-analogies sound relevant with 0% content being of use for discussion. You want to quantify a breakout? Why don't you actually provide ideas you come up with on your own so there is a debate? Feels like my IQ just took a dip from trying to find any hidden meaning (there is none) from your posts. Yes I'm a breakout trader, no I don't see any point in attempting a meaningful discussion with this op here.
  • #32
  • Jan 11, 2015 6:02pm Jan 11, 2015 6:02pm
For everybody. I'm not here to give you some tools for trading, I'm here to share my ideas and find ideas, obviously good ideas. If somebody don't like this thread and what me and other people write here, there is a simple solution that save your time, walk away.
  • #33
  • Feb 18, 2015 10:55am Feb 18, 2015 10:55am
Let's talk about Fibonacci.
Fibonacci is a sequence of numbers generated as X(i) + X(i-1)
Here is an example
0 1
next number is 0 + 1 = 1
and the sequence becomes
0 1 1
next number is 1 + 1 = 2
and the sequence becomes
0 1 1 2
and more
0 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 .....
now if we do X(i) / X(i-1)
here is an example
5/3=1.66
8/5=1.6
13/8=1.625
21/13=1.6154
34/21=1.619
55/34=1.6176
89/55=1.618
if we take the average what we find is the ratio of fibonacci that is 1.618
then we can also use this ratio to draw rectangles and then by linking point what we find is the golden spiral
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Is there any relation between golden spiral and trading? If yes, what is this relation?

Alex
  • #34
  • Mar 13, 2015 10:37am Mar 13, 2015 10:37am
Quoting alexx90
Let's talk about Fibonacci. Fibonacci is a sequence of numbers generated as X(i) + X(i-1) Here is an example 0 1 next number is 0 + 1 = 1 and the sequence becomes 0 1 1 next number is 1 + 1 = 2 and the sequence becomes 0 1 1 2 and more 0 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 ..... now if we do X(i) / X(i-1) here is an example 5/3=1.66 8/5=1.6 13/8=1.625 21/13=1.6154 34/21=1.619 55/34=1.6176 89/55=1.618 if we take the average what we find is the ratio of fibonacci that is 1.618 then we can also use this ratio to draw rectangles and then by linking point what...

There are many relations & none at the same time.

One of the most overlooked in my opinion is what the this image represents. & and its not some golden ratio. Its the Male & Female form of movement.

The male form of movement is straight forward. It moves in lines. It wants to get where its going in the way that makes the most sense. It is very rigid and stubborn. Much like a trend... The Levy Flight.
The female form of movement is creative. It moves in curves. It wants to get where it is going in the most creative way it can. It is very free flowing & hard to predict. Much like choppy random markets... The Random Walk.

So what does this have to do with trading? No matter which form, male or female, the market is taking, it will always end of up at the same place.

Price is constantly oscillating between the two forms of movement as it always tries to reach 0, which it never will because Phi. It will wind up via the female form of curving random walk movements & it will unwind because of the levy flight male, straight forward trending movements. Price will be changing between the two forms of movement forever.

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The Random Walk & The Levy Flight... Male & Female

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This is one of the many ways the the information presented in the image you posted relates to trading.

sis.
  • #35
  • Mar 14, 2015 2:37pm Mar 14, 2015 2:37pm
Like CP said. If we do not have access to direct order flow the game is not over.

"Which came first, the chicken or the egg? It doesn't matter, the egg produces the chicken and the chicken produces the egg Order flow and momentum >>> certain deviations and sigmas. Certain deviations and sigmas >>>> Order flow and momentum."

There are many ways to measure this momentum, or orderflow.
There is more than 1 way to successfully quantify the market.

Influx Presented 2 Separate Ways.

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Channels/Bands

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Time & Frequency Distribution

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Tick Volume
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"Order flow and momentum >>> certain deviations and sigmas. Certain deviations and sigmas >>>> Order flow and momentum."

sis.
  • #36
  • Mar 15, 2015 1:37pm Mar 15, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} There are many relations & none at the same time. One of the most overlooked in my opinion is what the this image represents. & and its not some golden ratio. Its the Male & Female form of movement. The male form of movement is straight forward. It moves in lines. It wants to get where its going in the way that makes the most sense. It is very rigid and stubborn. Much like a trend... The Levy Flight. The female form of movement is creative. It moves in curves. It wants to get where it is going in the most creative way it can. It is very...
Hi Sis I've read about female and male relation, it seems there are almost everywhere a male and a female, I don't talk of gender but of behaviour. I've also thought something similar about market, but I didn't came up with male and female movement. I thought that price don't move in a straight line to go from A to B, this came up from observations. I've seen this happens no matter the timeframe. Draw two point A and B and then price will go from A to B in a swinging move. It seems that after some quantity of move, before continue, it has to come back a little bit and then get back on his way. This move, "come back" seems like a manner to move it's balance point. When you walk on stairs, every step is a moment to stop and reset your "struggle", accumulate "force" and then continue with next step. I don't know if this can be related to trading, it's only an idea that for me can be compared.
  • #37
  • Mar 15, 2015 1:47pm Mar 15, 2015 1:47pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
Like CP said. If we do not have access to direct order flow the game is not over. "Which came first, the chicken or the egg? It doesn't matter, the egg produces the chicken and the chicken produces the egg Order flow and momentum >>> certain deviations and sigmas. Certain deviations and sigmas >>>> Order flow and momentum." There are many ways to measure this momentum, or orderflow. There is more than 1 way to successfully quantify the market. Influx Presented 2 Separate Ways. {image} Channels/Bands {image} Time & Frequency Distribution {image}...
You came up with something for sure, regarding "Order flow and momentum >>> certain deviations and sigmas. Certain deviations and sigmas >>>> Order flow and momentum." I got that: momentum is calculated from a reference point and because price moves, the reference point moves; so momentum is like a dynamic calculation. Every point has its own momentum and I can't compare actual momentum with one of 10 seconds ago. I've also tried something similar with channels, i've used envelopeMA, but I didn't come up with anything worthy, maybe I was looking from a bad perspective.
  • #38
  • Apr 8, 2015 9:55am Apr 8, 2015 9:55am
Cognitive bias and decision making.
http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-comm...being-rational
Our mind is a tremendous filter and what we see is not what we get.

Alex
  • #39
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:10am Apr 9, 2015 7:10am
Quoting alexx90
After a lot of work, time and dedication, it is amazing what everyone can achieve. {image} Alex
Thanks Alex

Could you please tell this image is from which platform ?
  • #40
  • Apr 9, 2015 11:46am Apr 9, 2015 11:46am
The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mag...s_or_Minus_Two

Alex
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