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  • #341
  • Dec 28, 2014 3:07pm Dec 28, 2014 3:07pm
Hello All!

Where can i download cot mt4 indicator?

Thanks for answer!
  • #342
  • Jan 6, 2015 11:02pm Jan 6, 2015 11:02pm
Quoting Dunstan
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review was not updated this week, but here’s my weekly snapshot anyway! Orange Juice COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 25, SS – 12% / Large cot change sell signal from the report. Not surprising seeing the nice rise in prices! BTW, isn’t it a beautiful example of cot extreme signal’s effectiveness? Anyhow… I think that we can expect a bit of decline in the short term, but I wouldn’t be betting on anything long lasting, since we had this huge cot extreme. Rough...
Hey Dunstan, what are your thoughts on sugar? Looks like commercials are super bullish. I'm super bullish long term there. See how well the crude oil short worked? Was expecting it to crash to 50, it did lag for a while and go sideways 90-110, but eventually the extreme bearish positions by commercials came to fruition. Ahh... isn't it a beautiful thing?
  • #343
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:31am Jan 7, 2015 3:31am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Hey Dunstan, what are your thoughts on sugar? Looks like commercials are super bullish. I'm super bullish long term there. See how well the crude oil short worked? Was expecting it to crash to 50, it did lag for a while and go sideways 90-110, but eventually the extreme bearish positions by commercials came to fruition. Ahh... isn't it a beautiful thing?
Hi Ck87,

First of all congrats on your profits in CL!! True, patience is a crucial factor in utilizing the maximum out of cot analysis. For any of you, who don’t remember, I (better: the cot report) was already signaling the overbought situation in Crude Oil, see post# 309 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7554373#post7554373)

Sugar: Yes, I have to agree, the bullishness in sugar is present. No question about that, but (!) caution is advised –-> see attached chart. The extreme is capable of widening for quite some time before the eventual bottom “arrives”. Similarly to crude oil, patience will help

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report52_Crude Oil.png Size: 216 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report52_Sugar.png Size: 222 KB
  • #344
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:34am Jan 7, 2015 3:34am
Hi everyone,

Happy and profitable New Year to All of You!!

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 18% /
We have a larger change in Traders positions than average, but nothing too unusual. It is bearish. The cot extreme signal is also bearish, especially in Small Specs positions. How to react on such signals? Cautiously If you have been following cot signals in indexes, by now you should see that cot analysis is not necessarily as helpful as in other, more “traditional” futures markets.

Copper
COT Extreme /LS – All Time COT extreme /
The All Time cot extreme signal (bullish) is an unquestionably very significant signal here that we should take seriously. I’m not saying that jumping in right away with huge positions is the “good answer”, but we can start preparing for a nice trade. Caution: if you look at the previous bullish extremes, you can find that the rallies following were “short living”. This doesn’t mean that the next rally has to be the same, I’m just saying that when we assume the potential R/R for the trade, let’s not forget about this.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Further widening of the cot extreme while prices could not gain any real momentum upwards… the potential for further weaker prices is still in place. If so, we will be witnessing even greater extremes OR (!) the rare situation that we call “commercial capitulation”. If that happens, “Hell’s Gates open” and we will see a huge decline, something similar that we had in Japanese Yen back in the end of 2012. In any case, we can expect “something serious” to happen --> long straddles? maybe

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report52_MXP.png Size: 268 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report52_Copper.png Size: 268 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report_Dow Jones-30.png Size: 262 KB
  • #345
  • Jan 10, 2015 7:07pm Jan 10, 2015 7:07pm
Quoting Dunstan
Hi Ck87, {quote} Both of your statements are correct: The best cot extreme signals, are the All Time extremes, but as I’ve mentioned earlier, they can be present in a market for quite some time, before we see prices react. The trend may continue upwards, although the extreme does suggest that prices should fall. There are rare occasions, when these cot extremes fail to effect prices, they are called “Commercial Capitulation” (you can read more about it post#42 in this...
This did end up happening, didn't it? The small specs got close to 40,000 contracts net long on that last crude oil rally, am i right?
  • #346
  • Jan 10, 2015 8:05pm Jan 10, 2015 8:05pm
Quoting Dunstan
Hi everyone, Happy and profitable New Year to All of You!! The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Dow Jones-30 COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 18% / We have a larger change in Traders positions than average, but nothing too unusual. It is bearish. The cot extreme signal is also bearish, especially in Small Specs positions. How to react on such signals? Cautiously If you have been following cot signals in indexes, by now you should see that cot analysis is not necessarily as helpful as in other,...
With the stronger USD are we expecting the copper downtrend to continue?

I've never found a way where I can actually integrate the data from these COT reports into my trading
  • #347
  • Jan 11, 2015 4:39am Jan 11, 2015 4:39am
Quoting Sityu
Hello All! Where can i download cot mt4 indicator? Thanks for answer!
There is a Cot Project for MT4 include full products by Author Василий Соколов (Russia) => You can search by Google.

But I prefer to Web: timingcharts.com
Trading for a living
  • #348
  • Jan 11, 2015 4:47am Jan 11, 2015 4:47am
Gold Cot Chart: Net position & COT Index (Larry Williams) from Timingcharts.com
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 66 KB
Trading for a living
  • #349
  • Jan 11, 2015 4:50am Jan 11, 2015 4:50am
Gold Cot Chart from Tradingview.com (code by Quandl.com): Net posion of Large Speculators
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 98 KB
Trading for a living
  • #350
  • Jan 11, 2015 4:56am Jan 11, 2015 4:56am
Quoting verv
{quote} With the stronger USD are we expecting the copper downtrend to continue? I've never found a way where I can actually integrate the data from these COT reports into my trading
Raw Copper Cot Data by CFTC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 30 KB
Trading for a living
  • #351
  • Jan 11, 2015 5:58am Jan 11, 2015 5:58am
COT Index (52 weeks): 0% - Oversold => Warning buying signal.
Net Position of Large Speculators (Bigboys) still goes down. If trading by COT data, you should wait for reversal signal by Large Speculator (Increase Long position).

Copper Cot Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 92 KB
Trading for a living
  • #352
  • Jan 11, 2015 6:09am Jan 11, 2015 6:09am
LONG AREA: 2.6-2.67
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 156 KB
Trading for a living
  • #353
  • Jan 11, 2015 6:21am Jan 11, 2015 6:21am
NOTE: IN COMMODITIES COT REPORT:

LARGE SPECULATOR (Bigbanks) positions= MANAGED MONEY (US BANKs/FUNDs) positions + OTHER REPORTABLES (NonUS Banks/FUNDs) positions

Lar Spec acitivity is often in the SAME direction of the markets trends.
Commercials acitivity is often in the OPPOSITE direction of the markets trends.
Trading for a living
  • #354
  • Jan 19, 2015 5:44am Jan 19, 2015 5:44am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} This did end up happening, didn't it? The small specs got close to 40,000 contracts net long on that last crude oil rally, am i right?
Yeap,you're right!

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #355
  • Jan 19, 2015 5:48am Jan 19, 2015 5:48am
Quoting verv
{quote} With the stronger USD are we expecting the copper downtrend to continue? I've never found a way where I can actually integrate the data from these COT reports into my trading
Stronger USD truly has a negative effect on commodities, no question about that!
Integration of cot analysis in your trading: Take some time and read through my posts if you can... you should get some sort of idea how it can contribute to your trading! I use it mainly in two ways: 1) signalling tool - to find trading opportunites or 2) confirmation tool - to support my trading based on tradition TA tools.

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #356
  • Jan 19, 2015 7:28am Jan 19, 2015 7:28am
Hi everyone,

COTbase did not update their site with the latest Commitments of Traders review, but anyhow, I will show you some interesting markets that you may want to analyze closer.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 15%, SS – 27% /
We are moving away from bearish cot extreme levels, plus we have a strengthening USD environment, so let’s not be surprised that Soybean Meal is falling and we are getting such large changes in Traders positions. This can of course influence prices in the near term and push prices a bit higher/ slow down the fall of prices.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme /LS – All Time COT extreme /
We have had this kind of extreme in the cot report for some time now with any serious, longer lasting effect on prices, so I would warn you to be cautious with this market… but it is true: we have got an unquestionable large bullish cot signal.

USD Index
COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
I know the world is in panic mode and it’s hard to believe in such circumstances that the trend can end… but they usually do at some point in time. The cot report shows us how unbelievably large the stress levels have become, so we should be very cautious with our expectations of much higher USD prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report2_USD Index.png Size: 139 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report2_Rough Rice.png Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report2_Soybean Meal.png Size: 152 KB
  • #357
  • Jan 22, 2015 5:32pm Jan 22, 2015 5:32pm
Quoting Dunstan
Hi everyone, COTbase did not update their site with the latest Commitments of Traders review, but anyhow, I will show you some interesting markets that you may want to analyze closer. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 15%, SS – 27% / We are moving away from bearish cot extreme levels, plus we have a strengthening USD environment, so let’s not be surprised that Soybean Meal is falling and we are getting such large changes in Traders positions. This can of course influence prices in the near term and...
Thoughts on natural gas? Commercials are clearly bullish there...
  • #358
  • Jan 23, 2015 3:30am Jan 23, 2015 3:30am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Thoughts on natural gas? Commercials are clearly bullish there...
Right agaian I see you are becomming pretty good at cot analysis, congratulations!
As the attached chart shows, clearly there is a bullish cot extreme in the market. Big question though, will it effect prices any time soon? Anyhow, if your system is providing you with good trading setups, you can enter the trade knowing that the cot report is "backing you"... no guarantees - normal - but truly good R/R trade.

All the best and good luck!
Dunstan
  • #359
  • Jan 23, 2015 3:31am Jan 23, 2015 3:31am
wooops... forgot the chart, my bad
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report2_NG.png Size: 134 KB
  • #360
  • Jan 23, 2015 3:43am Jan 23, 2015 3:43am
Quoting Dunstan
wooops... forgot the chart, my bad {image}
Looks like we should probably be looking for small specs to be at 10k-20k longs... probably not too relevant though. I do think we're getting closer to the bottom.. somewhere in the 2's...
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