{quote} I have pendings to short 50,51 and 52
Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator
- #362
- Jan 6, 2015 2:11pm Jan 6, 2015 2:11pm
{quote} 50 could be too early but 51 and 52 yeah sure it looks like a good call! though myself i wont dare to take a short on Oil right now, things looks creepy abit!
this should be good ... this moving trains on EUR/USD and USD pairs and Oil isnt so often ... i will miss this trains even i wasnt trading them so much 
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
- #364
- Jan 6, 2015 2:17pm Jan 6, 2015 2:17pm
- Joined May 2012 | Status: Senior Member | 3,052 Posts
{quote} canceled 50 added 53
I suggest you o your own analysis and if tells you to short at 50 then please do, at the end a trader cannot be profitable until following their own analysis
- #365
- Jan 6, 2015 2:30pm Jan 6, 2015 2:30pm
{quote} Please do not take my word for granted! at the end I'm basing my call on best analysis which by the way is not always 100% right, actually in forex no one can give you a call that is 100% guaranteed! I suggest you o your own analysis and if tells you to short at 50 then please do, at the end a trader cannot be profitable until following their own analysis
(i will be back in 50 for sure to enter market) btw do u know some web of corn fundaments ? "I'm not answering stupid questions."
- #366
- Jan 6, 2015 2:47pm Jan 6, 2015 2:47pm
- Joined May 2012 | Status: Senior Member | 3,052 Posts
{quote} dont worry man
- #367
- Jan 6, 2015 3:21pm Jan 6, 2015 3:21pm
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: On Life's Path | 2,076 Posts
{quote} dont worry man
- #368
- Jan 6, 2015 9:57pm Jan 6, 2015 9:57pm
{quote} I've been trading corn for several years & followed it my whole life growing up on a farm. If you're just a swing trader or scalper, I would suggest just trading with the charts. Just like oil, hedge funds will push prices beyond where the fundamentals suggest prices should be. I follow fundamentals closely all the time but only because I hold corn positions for long periods of time. I've been holding now for about 6 months & will be holding until at least December. If you want to hold for longer periods, you can read some articles on agweb.com....
I will stay at OIL I am swing trader "I'm not answering stupid questions."
- #372
- Jan 10, 2015 2:28pm Jan 10, 2015 2:28pm
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: In your head, eating your brain | 2,562 Posts
Not convinced 50 brent is really the turning point.
On the H1 we saw rejection of the 50 level (first circled wick), then a small bounce and a good break of 50. Just before market close, price tried to rally up a bit again but got rejected (2nd circled wick). ADX and D- are still showing a short bias.
D1 still looks bearish too...ADX, D- above 20...
Not saying there won't be a bit of a retracement, but bulls still look too weak to take over imo. I'd need a better signal than "50s a round figure and price is stalling a bit" to go long here.
On the H1 we saw rejection of the 50 level (first circled wick), then a small bounce and a good break of 50. Just before market close, price tried to rally up a bit again but got rejected (2nd circled wick). ADX and D- are still showing a short bias.
D1 still looks bearish too...ADX, D- above 20...
Not saying there won't be a bit of a retracement, but bulls still look too weak to take over imo. I'd need a better signal than "50s a round figure and price is stalling a bit" to go long here.
- #374
- Jan 12, 2015 4:59am Jan 12, 2015 4:59am
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: In your head, eating your brain | 2,562 Posts
- #375
- Jan 12, 2015 1:33pm Jan 12, 2015 1:33pm
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: In your head, eating your brain | 2,562 Posts
Nooooooosedive
Entered a 2nd leg today just below 50...hoping for a push towards 40-45.
Entered a 2nd leg today just below 50...hoping for a push towards 40-45.
- #377
- Edited 6:38pm Jan 12, 2015 6:21pm | Edited 6:38pm
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: In your head, eating your brain | 2,562 Posts
{quote} One point you're missing is the high leverage of US shale oil extracting companies. Low oil prices put these companies under enormous pressure. And when they go bust, US banks will be left on a mountain of foul debt. Some say that writeoffs from bankrupt shale oil companies may reach a dimension similar to the housing crisis. You know what that means, right? Stock markets are already sliding on further oil price decline. Believe me, this thing can turn sooner than we think. South America producing cheap oil? Never heard of it. Who? Where?...
- #379
- Edited Jan 13, 2015 12:40am Jan 12, 2015 10:45pm | Edited Jan 13, 2015 12:40am
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Getting closer to ...... | 1,787 Posts
Ive been charting some comparable assets over the past month looking at the relationships over time for a selection of assets including the DOW, Oil, Gold, Silver and the US dollar. 1 point of note when looking at Gold and Oil, since 2007 the average exchange has been 14.5 barrels per ounce of gold.
In 2009 the level peaked to 27 barrels per ounce with Gold at $993 and Oil at a few ticks under $37. It ran up though from 7.5 in October 2008 before it hit some highs, pulled back some and then ran to that high mentioned before. It crashed to resettle around the average.
On todays price of Gold (1235.40) and Oil (47.97) that ratio is 25.75, close to the highs but the run up has been shorter. That been said, tracing Gold/Oil back through the last 100 from memory the highest ratio was around 30 barrels per ounce and I believe that was when oil was sub $5 and world demand/supply is nothing like it is today.
With Gold lurking higher and Oil continuing to drop, the question is when does the band snap back to the mean price and will it be an oil rise, a gold drop or a combination.
RT
EDIT: I found a chart online which shows it better. Its crazy to note the number of times it has spike straight up and then back down. It will be interesting to see how it turns this time.
In 2009 the level peaked to 27 barrels per ounce with Gold at $993 and Oil at a few ticks under $37. It ran up though from 7.5 in October 2008 before it hit some highs, pulled back some and then ran to that high mentioned before. It crashed to resettle around the average.
On todays price of Gold (1235.40) and Oil (47.97) that ratio is 25.75, close to the highs but the run up has been shorter. That been said, tracing Gold/Oil back through the last 100 from memory the highest ratio was around 30 barrels per ounce and I believe that was when oil was sub $5 and world demand/supply is nothing like it is today.
With Gold lurking higher and Oil continuing to drop, the question is when does the band snap back to the mean price and will it be an oil rise, a gold drop or a combination.
RT
EDIT: I found a chart online which shows it better. Its crazy to note the number of times it has spike straight up and then back down. It will be interesting to see how it turns this time.
- #380
- Jan 12, 2015 10:58pm Jan 12, 2015 10:58pm
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Getting closer to ...... | 1,787 Posts