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The Club!

  • #17,081
  • Edited 10:01am Jan 10, 2015 9:45am | Edited 10:01am
Quoting janpec1000
...In the end Gauls cracked. Apply that to Oil US-Russia.
Well thats a great theory with Oil-Gauls-US-Russia-Romans-China. Perhaps most is hurt Russia. But, I wouldnt underestimate ISIS when it comes to military power and you got elections coming in US. Before they start waving with flags and go out for war, there has to be some political propaganda first. Propaganda to win elections by going out for war to save a country. So, in fact it is pretty much safe now to tease US. If you want to damage him, you got chance only pre elections.

edit: Just for the fun of it, suppose it is China behind all this and damaging both US and Russia
edit: Man I just had a look at that picture you posted, it is very nice, but I dont get it. How comes high Oil prices is damaging Russia? They got Oil, they want price to be high, or?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,082
  • Jan 10, 2015 9:56am Jan 10, 2015 9:56am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Hi Infinitus, you know I am a conspirational theorist and errr, actually Oil is possibly the most secret trading enviroment in the world. Infos just dont get out. But it is a supply/demand thing always. This is not an analysis, saying there is weaker demand, thats just lame, but thats what most news are. Ofc when world is stagnating - slowing - demand goes down. Anyway, I had this theory regarding supply. If you got barbarians on borders of your Oil fields, capturing more and more - heck, that should be hell of a shortage of supply. Lets...
No, not at all conspiracy

One of my thinking strings also played that scenario LOL


But you know, I am Elliottican. So the movement of price follows mainly social mood. Social mood is the driver of all.

I think in case of Oil we face this situation:

A) social mood worldwide is eroding; you can see that in weakening demand everywhere. Ask CAT why they have laid down so much workers, or why their orderbook is so empty. Also look at Baltic dry Index. This time it is not an oversupply on ships........

B) USA likes to hurt Russia; already falling Oil prices makes it easy

C) The Arabs want to damage the USA shale industrie; already falling oil prices makes it easy

D) to our conspiracy theory above: ISIS needs money, and the Arabs can use cheap Oil

Rinse and repeat
  • #17,083
  • Jan 10, 2015 9:59am Jan 10, 2015 9:59am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} FED is ECB ECB is GS, GS is JPM, and then there is godfather above it. Ofcourse with that saying there are black sheeps within each institution. As for your argument there are two points oposite of eachother: -certainly its solid point that all policies could be done to promp up dollar no doubt about it, including rate hikes. FED could talk the talk and do nothing and keep faking markets in 2016, with dollar rallying as all other CBs go into currency negative policies further, so even with FED no delivering 2015 USD could go up further more....



I like your sharpness
  • #17,084
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:03am Jan 10, 2015 10:03am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Here is my take on it. You know for Roman-Gallic wars in 0-50 AD? What Romans did they went on invasion and every village they passed, they burned all wheat and food behind it. It caused massive problems for Roman army an nearby provincial people due to starvation, but it caused 10 times more problems for Gauls, becouse they simply have no food, and as most towns were under siege there was just no food comming in. In the end Gauls cracked. Apply that to Oil US-Russia. Now lets back that by 1st Cold war: http://prntscr.com/5qrfo8...

I think US likes the presence of ISIS a bit, because the policy of US is to destabilize as much of Far East as possible, so they can control it more easily........
  • #17,085
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:06am Jan 10, 2015 10:06am
Yes, I agree, though I wouldnt say like, but tolerate and big chunk of that toleration is in fact elections are a bit further on road. As Janpec pointed out in those wars, more sides are damaged, and now damage to Middle east and Russia is much higher. It is not just that Oil, Arabs had a "sorta" trade union in there and ISIS stopped goods and capital flow. Whole region is going to stagnate.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,086
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:06am Jan 10, 2015 10:06am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well thats a great theory with Oil-Gauls-US-Russia-Romans-China. Perhaps most is hurt Russia. But, I wouldnt underestimate ISIS when it comes to military power and you got elections coming in US. Before they start waving with flags and go out for war, there has to be some political propaganda first. Propaganda to win elections by going out for war to save a country. So, in fact it is pretty much safe now to tease US. If you want to damage him, you got chance only pre elections. edit: Just for the fun of it, suppose it is China behind all...
Oh ye, look on red circle on picture, its low prices where collapse happened. Like you said Russia wants high Oil price. And just compare that Oil drop to today drop, 100% the same in term of speed, and non-expectancy and shock. I dont believe in two times repeated situations backed by hundreds of facts as coincidences nor can very broad theory as droping (heavy) demand hold much water unless there is major proof/fact of it.
  • #17,087
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:08am Jan 10, 2015 10:08am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I think US likes the presence of ISIS a bit, because the policy of US is to destabilize as much of Far East as possible, so they can control it more easily........
I think they like it A LOT (Jim Carrey reference Dumb and dumber).
  • #17,088
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:11am Jan 10, 2015 10:11am
nice find

daily sentiment index

https://twitter.com/finansakrobat/st...39942238605312
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  • #17,089
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:14am Jan 10, 2015 10:14am
M
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  • #17,090
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:15am Jan 10, 2015 10:15am
Sry for spam, I hope you wont mind, it is weekend. "Wat are d plaans to take ofer America again, i forgoot."

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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,091
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:22am Jan 10, 2015 10:22am
Relax, or better not

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  • #17,092
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:27am Jan 10, 2015 10:27am
I can remember a few years back, when watching those wing suit videos, I thought them to be faked videos LOL


Are they crazy?


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  • #17,093
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:31am Jan 10, 2015 10:31am
hehehe ,americans r Obsessed to save america or the world and some times to save the planet or going so far to save the universe ,they were cowboys,but still cowboys ,unfortunately
  • #17,094
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:34am Jan 10, 2015 10:34am
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  • #17,095
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:36am Jan 10, 2015 10:36am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Sry for spam, I hope you wont mind, it is weekend. "Wat are d plaans to take ofer America again, i forgoot." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2OAGf_0c6A




weekend is not only time for deeper analysis, rantings, thoughts, etc., it is also the time for fun, isn't it?

  • #17,096
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:40am Jan 10, 2015 10:40am
Quoting tahshoon
hehehe ,americans r Obsessed to save america or the world and some times to save the planet or going so far to save the universe ,they were cowboys,but still cowboys ,unfortunately



  • #17,097
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:43am Jan 10, 2015 10:43am
Quoting infinitus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYz_tORw0KY
Defenetly impressive. Very rare sport, if you mention to most people that there are some people flying around mountains with "bare hands" they would assume you went mad its that rare. But hey i have challenge idea for those adrenaliners...how about not using parachute at all, and you have to perfectly plan your route to land, so that means decreasing speed perfectly acording to distance of ground and then land down, basically like airplane. Since they went so far already, why not doing that aswell
  • #17,098
  • Edited 10:57am Jan 10, 2015 10:45am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting infinitus
Are they crazy?
That is an insane vid. He is so close to those rocks.
edit: and man, that second video. Thats really epic. I want this!
edit: I myself am adrenalin junkie, so I just love these things. Like jumping out of cliff, leverage 30:1 pre NFP, you name it.
edit: And no offence to these guys, but I think leveraging 30:1 pre NFP is a bit harder than just jumping off a cliff
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,099
  • Jan 10, 2015 10:51am Jan 10, 2015 10:51am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Defenetly impressive. Very rare sport, if you mention to most people that there are some people flying around mountains with "bare hands" they would assume you went mad its that rare. But hey i have challenge idea for those adrenaliners...how about not using parachute at all, and you have to perfectly plan your route to land, so that means decreasing speed perfectly acording to distance of ground and then land down, basically like airplane. Since they went so far already, why not doing that aswell

they could use a skateboard tight to their belly for the landing


  • #17,100
  • Jan 10, 2015 12:52pm Jan 10, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Thank you - almost forgot this resource Am I getting old?
YW. I don't think you are getting older as long as you can climb
Those are good MM links thats why I remember.
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