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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #17,021
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:02am Jan 9, 2015 8:02am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Labor Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 38 Year Low; Record 92.9 Million Americans Not In Labor Force
  • #17,022
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:17am Jan 9, 2015 8:17am
20 minutes ago | January 9th, 2015 13:52:34 GMT.
Goldman Sachs now forecasts EUR/USD parity by end-2016
http://1.gravatar.com/avatar/b38e4b7...4&d=retro&r=PGby Adam Button
We wrote about a similar call from last year’s best FX forecasting major bank — ING — yesterday.
The worry here is that the euro trade is already extremely crowded and when bank pile into a trade it’s often near the peak.
Update: They’ve also lowered the end-2017 forecast to 0.90. In three months they expect 1.14.
In six months they expect 1.11 from 1.20 previously.
  • #17,023
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:24am Jan 9, 2015 8:24am
about time to go long EU?

FF traders are now short
Attached Image
  • #17,024
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:29am Jan 9, 2015 8:29am
Quoting infinitus
about time to go long EU? FF traders are now short {image}
But I think the shorters made money!
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,025
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:46am Jan 9, 2015 8:46am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} But I think the shorters made money!

The crowd was net long until today!
  • #17,026
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:48am Jan 9, 2015 8:48am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} But I think the shorters made money!

look where they went net short
Attached Image
  • #17,027
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:54am Jan 9, 2015 8:54am
Quoting infinitus
{image} Labor Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 38 Year Low; Record 92.9 Million Americans Not In Labor Force

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
The "Waiter And Bartender" Recovery: Most Food Service Jobs Added Since 2012


but all is contained, isn't it?


Waiter, one Scotch, please!
  • #17,028
  • Jan 9, 2015 8:55am Jan 9, 2015 8:55am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} The crowd was net long until today!
Seems hard to believe ... who would long this except for a scalp?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,029
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:04am Jan 9, 2015 9:04am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Seems hard to believe ... who would long this except for a scalp?
me
  • #17,030
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:05am Jan 9, 2015 9:05am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Seems hard to believe ... who would long this except for a scalp?

it is very interesting to take a look at the the retail crowd. Keep in mind: most of them are losing most of the time. Even when they get a major turning point to the pip or so, they are out very quickly taking the small profit.

Look at me: I was short since 3970, covered a lot in the vicinity of 3100-3300, and the rest down to 2375 or so. Could have made 1000 pips more easily LOL


Alpari showed the whole time (even now) over 70% long.

The trader from Dukascopy were net long since today or yesterday between 55 and 60% when I remember correctly. Now they are net short.

Oanda, which traders are said to be the most successful offered round about the same view than Dukascopy.


You can easily access various sentiment data through my blog. Look in my blog at the left side, scroll down until the section with links titled "Sentiment"

http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/
  • #17,031
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:12am Jan 9, 2015 9:12am
EU 15min TF


minimum target for this wave up should be around 1846 in order to produce wave 1 wave 4 overlap
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_15 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 68 KB
  • #17,032
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:26am Jan 9, 2015 9:26am
http://www.safehaven.com/article/363...-arthur-berman

The Real Cause Of Low Oil Prices: Interview With Arthur Berman
  • #17,033
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:59am Jan 9, 2015 9:59am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} look where they went net short {image}
Bravo for this post, i wish i had seen it sooner, would gave me more confidence in long. Abosolutely text book example of structure+bottoming and fake bear push and COT confirmation that anyone shorting should be very carefull for. Really good find there Infinitus. I wish there was some sort of indie that could ...rationalize whole situion when COT changes so drastically and structure tells then oposite, its valuable info.

I am dollar bear in view now for next several days ,maybe week or two. AUDUSD and EURUSD longs. Not that much becouse of FF "COT" but becouse of structure.

BTW there is proper COT update coming on Monday i think, will check what is change in sentiment, not sure if they update in Monday or today.
  • #17,034
  • Jan 9, 2015 10:09am Jan 9, 2015 10:09am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} I spotted serious weakness on USD but haven't seen strength on EU, so I think its gonna be ranging on Daily and probably .1750 to .1800 area might hold... better wait 1-3 days to see more clearly.

LOL.. now i saw strength on EU
  • #17,035
  • Jan 9, 2015 10:10am Jan 9, 2015 10:10am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Bravo for this post, i wish i had seen it sooner, would gave me more confidence in long. Abosolutely text book example of structure+bottoming and fake bear push and COT confirmation that anyone shorting should be very carefull for. Really good find there Infinitus. I wish there was some sort of indie that could ...rationalize whole situion when COT changes so drastically and structure tells then oposite, its valuable info. I am dollar bear in view now for next several days ,maybe week or two. AUDUSD and EURUSD longs. Not that much becouse...


Thanks Jan,


COT data is released Friday evenings, but the data are from Tuesdays
  • #17,036
  • Jan 9, 2015 10:19am Jan 9, 2015 10:19am
Quoting infinitus
EU 15min TF minimum target for this wave up should be around 1846 in order to produce wave 1 wave 4 overlap {image}

minimum target nearly reached


as I learned recently, a wave 1 and wave 4 overlap in an ending diagonal is no rule, but a guideline. It happens most of the time but not always

But so far I only 3 waves up, the fifth may bring us into target zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_5 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 37 KB
  • #17,037
  • Jan 9, 2015 10:23am Jan 9, 2015 10:23am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Seems hard to believe ... who would long this except for a scalp?
I did
Attached Image


Quoting andexQ
{quote} Well, when we are at .2000s PA is very different if compared with currently at .1800s and I think we might have good retrace from .1750/.1800 area probably to .2100 area. Here is my posting when we are at .2000s : {quote} {quote}
  • #17,038
  • Jan 9, 2015 10:25am Jan 9, 2015 10:25am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} I did {image} {quote}
yes, but only now ^^
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,039
  • Jan 9, 2015 10:32am Jan 9, 2015 10:32am
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/mi...en-transcript/


why can I nowhere watch the Snowden Interview on video? Has the NSA taken it down?
  • #17,040
  • Jan 9, 2015 11:58am Jan 9, 2015 11:58am
Quoting infinitus
EU 15min TF minimum target for this wave up should be around 1846 in order to produce wave 1 wave 4 overlap {image}
18.44 is enough??? If we add the spread...
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