Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 256 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,101
  • Jan 7, 2015 8:14am Jan 7, 2015 8:14am
Hello Alfonso and Happy new year!and thanks for the educational video.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.JPG Size: 131 KB
Attachment

I have a question regarding the weekly analysis that you might clarify for me. If i look at the GPBUSD when you say Shorts is the way to go , i understand the weekly HTF is with us , but there is a nested demand area below price. I know this weekly demand zone is not fresh and has been retested and the monthly demand zone is wicky ,
my question is : why should i not consider price to be too low in the HTF curve?, because the lower demand area is not fresh and monthly is wicky. when is the HTF curve applicable or not applicable and would you take a short now and assume it would penetrate the retested/wicky demand zones or would you wait for confirmation.


Regards
Steve
  • #5,102
  • Jan 7, 2015 11:31am Jan 7, 2015 11:31am
I am the same appreciation as Fatyflathead for your weekly analysis.
My question is almost the same, based on your weekly analysis:
How do we find the entry point?
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #5,103
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:38pm Jan 7, 2015 3:38pm
Quoting Fatyflathead
Hello Alfonso and Happy new year!and thanks for the educational video. {image}1584224 I have a question regarding the weekly analysis that you might clarify for me. If i look at the GPBUSD when you say Shorts is the way to go , i understand the weekly HTF is with us , but there is a nested demand area below price. I know this weekly demand zone is not fresh and has been retested and the monthly demand zone is wicky , my question is : why should i not consider price to be too low in the HTF curve?, because the lower demand area is not fresh and monthly...
Hi Steve,

One thing is the curve, another thing is to distinguish between a tradable level and a non-tradable level, a level that can affect your profit margin or not. That is, if the biger picture trend is down, and a bigger timeframe opposing demand zone is neither fresh nor original, we should expect bigger penetration, we should not assume, but we should expect a bigger penetration.

Why? Because buyers, if any left or any interested in buying with such a downtrend (inertia is down), will be at those "blank spaces" within those higher timeframe zones. What I've been doing lately is selling into non-fresh and non orignal zones if the trend is down UNTIL I have a loss, once I have a loss, I will consider a bigger retracement will probably happen soon.

In a downtrend, demand is taken out, new supply is created and respected. Moreover, if the demand zone is not fresh or not original, what do you think is "most likely" to happen? If normally fresh demand zones are removed, non fresh or not orignal zones will have higher odds to be removed, don't you think so? I believe you will be see the logic in all this.

Hope that it makes sense.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,104
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:39pm Jan 7, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting RiverTrader
I am the same appreciation as Fatyflathead for your weekly analysis. My question is almost the same, based on your weekly analysis: How do we find the entry point?
How do we find the entry point? Applying the rules It takes time to do that, why? Because you need to know many nuances, apply multiple timeframe analysis and the realignment rules as explained in previous posts and a few of webinars that talk in detail about it. Take your time to go through the first post and those webinars, all the information is there. Replying to your question in a few words is just impossible since a LOT of variables are needed and have to be taken into account.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,105
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:56pm Jan 7, 2015 3:56pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Steve, One thing is the curve, another thing is to distinguish between a tradable level and a non-tradable level, a level that can affect your profit margin or not. That is, if the biger picture trend is down, and a bigger timeframe opposing demand zone is neither fresh nor original, we should expect bigger penetration, we should not assume, but we should expect a bigger penetration. Why? Because buyers, if any left or any interested in buying with such a downtrend (inertia is down), will be at those "blank spaces" within those higher...
Thanks for the comprehensive reply Alfonso , yes this is logical and makes sense to me.i need to get the rules clearer in my head, it's not coming together for me just yet on forex tester as the right side of my brain is hijacking the left side ,when it comes to clicking the mouse button .
But I'm working at it and I think I'm getting a step closer all the time.
thanks.
Steve
  • #5,106
  • Jan 7, 2015 4:05pm Jan 7, 2015 4:05pm
Quoting Fatyflathead
{quote} Thanks for the comprehensive reply Alfonso , yes this is logical and makes sense to me.i need to get the rules clearer in my head, it's not coming together for me just yet on forex tester as the right side of my brain is hijacking the left side ,when it comes to clicking the mouse button . But I'm working at it and I think I'm getting a step closer all the time. thanks. Steve
Glad to hear that it makes sense to you Steve, that's a big step. Don't worry about not getting it right in the beginning, it will take you months. But you know what? Nobody said trading is easy But the reward is big, why? Because supply and demand rules the world, not just the markets but our lives. If you know how to trade supply and demand, you will be able to trade any instrument on any platform, no need of any indicator, just assessing what zones are doing and what is the trend (supply and demand wise) on each timeframe.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,107
  • Jan 7, 2015 9:55pm Jan 7, 2015 9:55pm
Hi Alfonso,

Just wanted to say that you have done some hard work on this thread. Specially the videos are great value. Watched it and planning to watch it again as every video have something to learn and understand but it takes time to grasp everything.

Excellent thread with excellent knowledge sharing.

Thanks
JJ
  • #5,108
  • Jan 8, 2015 5:50am Jan 8, 2015 5:50am
Hello fellow traders,

I hope you had a great Christmas time and a Happy New Year 2015. My best wishes to all of you. New year, new trades, new hopes.

A new live webinar will be held next Friday 16th January 2015. We'll go through a bunch of currency pairs/instruments and locate possible trade setups and IF THEN scenarios. Those that have been following me for some time will know what an IF THEN scenario is all about.

  1. SUBJECT: Trading with the bigger picture's trend
  2. DATE: Friday 16th January 2015
  3. TIME: 09:00 AM - 10:30 AM CEST (Central European Summer TIme), right at Lomdon Open
  4. LINK TO JOIN: fill in this form in order to get the webinar's link, if you have already joined a webinar in the past you should have received it by now

You can join now, you will be notified by email 1 day and 1 hour before it starts. The webinar will be recorded as always

I'll try to cover all these topics:

  1. Longer term position trading
  2. We'll use the Sequence and The Realignment to locate setups
  3. How to trade with the D1 supply and demand imbalances
  4. Under which conditions we should hold a trade and how
  5. This longer term analysis can be used for lower timeframe intraday trades, it helps a lot to trade with the biger picture's trend

​Have a great Thursday and week.
Happy new year 2015
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,109
  • Jan 9, 2015 5:17am Jan 9, 2015 5:17am
USDJPY Buy
http://s24.postimg.org/uaomh0fl1/screenshot_290.png
screengrab

GBPNZD SELL

http://s24.postimg.org/6ifb5hdk5/screenshot_289.png
screengrab


Please comment if there is any mistake
  • #5,110
  • Jan 9, 2015 5:40am Jan 9, 2015 5:40am
Hi Rickfx

I'm no expert ( still a student) but I think you should show higher time frame analysis and how you draw your trendlines, so that we can see if u took the trades in terms of the rules.

Will await expert opinion as well.

Kind Regards

Abzozo
  • #5,111
  • Jan 9, 2015 5:48am Jan 9, 2015 5:48am
Quoting Abzozo1
Hi Rickfx I'm no expert ( still a student) but I think you should show higher time frame analysis and how you draw your trendlines, so that we can see if u took the trades in terms of the rules. Will await expert opinion as well. Kind Regards Abzozo
Thnx for your reply. I am also new Lerner here, I did some work 1 year ago and now i have started SD practice again. I need to recap all video i have, still doing that.
I just watched a new video and found some improvement in rectangle reader. Is it open for everyone ? or only for subscriber. If its open please someone give me the link to download.
  • #5,112
  • Jan 9, 2015 9:02am Jan 9, 2015 9:02am
Hi Rickyfx

From post 1, u need to visit, http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars and complete the form and the indicators will begin downloading once u have submitted.

Thats how you access the rectangular indicator

Kind Regards

Abzozo
  • #5,113
  • Jan 10, 2015 5:10am Jan 10, 2015 5:10am
Quoting rickyfx
USDJPY Buy {image} screengrab GBPNZD SELL {image} screengrab Please comment if there is any mistake
Yes a couple of thing Ricky.

Look at the Monthly chart on USD/JPY, where it's reacting from. MN supply zone in control. The H4 Demand zone you drew is not correct, you didn't draw the zone correctly, you just took the wicks. If correctly drawn it didn't provide 2:1 imbalance as per the rules, not a valid long on H4 as per the rules. Trendlines are also missing, and as Abzozo pointed out in a previous post, you need to make a top down analysis of at least 3 timeframes in order to have a clear view on what is the bigger picture and if higher timeframes areas are now in control.

Regarding the GBPNZD short, price is now at a WK/MN Demand zone, bias is shorts, but be careful with shorts that low. You are just showing your entry timeframe charts, H4, but I don't see any bigger timeframes zones on any chart, that's very important

Hope that it makes sense
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,114
  • Jan 10, 2015 11:53am Jan 10, 2015 11:53am
Hi Alfonso and all,

I am wondering if we can follow the rules of your methodology strictly and without making errors, how many percentage of win/loss ratio can we expect overall?

Thanks...
  • #5,115
  • Edited Jan 11, 2015 2:32am Jan 10, 2015 4:28pm | Edited Jan 11, 2015 2:32am
Quoting caparzo
Hi Alfonso and all, I am wondering if we can follow the rules of your methodology strictly and without making errors, how many percentage of win/loss ratio can we expect overall? Thanks...
Its impossible to follow any methodology strictly and without errors, there are lots of variables involved as well as emotions. Your success ratio will be always different to mine and to any other trader, it's the way trading works and that's why most traders fail to be successful. Myself, I make many errors. How to know what the rules can do without errors? By going through many pairs backtesting and applyng the rules, that takes a LOT of time. I'm happy with my results and the errors that I make and my 60-65% average susccess ratio.

Who can execute a strategy 100% without errors? I can't, a robot could, but I can't. I don't have my brain updated to 2.0 yet I'm happy with my v1.0 :=)

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,116
  • Edited 10:53pm Jan 11, 2015 10:41pm | Edited 10:53pm
Hello Alfonso,

Already registered live webinar on Friday, Jan 16.
Hope you don't mind some request here (I believe most traders' request as well).

Can you cover some entry rules based on your current weekly analysis?
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #5,117
  • Jan 12, 2015 12:27am Jan 12, 2015 12:27am
Hello i just downloaded new SD indicator and found some white dot on candle. How to remove this dot ? i dont find any option on settings. anyone know ?

http://s24.postimg.org/6dpskerc5/screenshot_297.png
screengrab
  • #5,118
  • Jan 12, 2015 1:25am Jan 12, 2015 1:25am
Quoting rickyfx
Hello i just downloaded new SD indicator and found some white dot on candle. How to remove this dot ? i dont find any option on settings. anyone know ? {image} screengrab
Those dots are very important since they define basing candles by showing 50% candles, part of the rules. If you still want to remove them, there is an option, set it to false as in the attachment and they will be gone, but they are very important.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 8 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,119
  • Jan 12, 2015 1:26am Jan 12, 2015 1:26am
This is the first time I post this kind of comment with a link to a funny video, a very well known song interpreted in a different way and related to trading, hope that you like it

Inserted Video
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,120
  • Jan 12, 2015 1:53am Jan 12, 2015 1:53am
Thank you sir actually i am studying ur strategy after 1 year just watching old videos but i notice some rules changes so i need to get grip on that but before that i need to recap the basic.

Quoting panoramia
{quote} Those dots are very important since they define basing candles by showing 50% candles, part of the rules. If you still want to remove them, there is an option, set it to false as in the attachment and they will be gone, but they are very important. Cheers, Alfonso {image}
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