Trading the lines

Giving bread to the beggar



Sometimes i wonder what the hell people are doing and why they arent talking about this kind of stuff.
Im feeling sort of stupid just for pointing this out because i SHOULD have read somebody else coming up with this stuff.
But i havent.





I think i just set myself up with same nice karma for 9 life times ahead.
Of course "i" dont exist because im not a person.
Did i mention i gave a hwole packet of hotdogs to a beggar a few hours ago.
He had the most kind eyes i have seldom seen.
I shake his hand and give him something every time i go to the store if hes there.
And i know why.
Im not much different from him.
Hes not worse or better then the other people around him.
To me in a way he is better, since i get to break the unspoken rule of "Dont speak to anyone you dont previously know, because you might embaress yourself."
Fuck this world needs people to see there aint much difference between us all.

I mean i dont know the whole deal here, i dont know where are the particles are and what they are up to.
I dont know how the moon got to where its at and stuff like that.
But i wont let any of my friends starve if i can help it.

" "

hmmmm

I asked Twee to make me a commercial member on the 2nd of february.
Im working on the fees for lessons and such. 20 american silver eagles is what im thinking on right now.
But until then i will keep doing... uuh... what i have been doing.
Happy trading folks!

Seems we are getting some lift from below.

Weighing things

Well anyways, what i was on about earlier, removing time and everything, i think its a matter of trying to figure out when price is sort tilting to the one side or the other. And its not really dependent on time, only the weight. Though time is what we imagein as the playground of our imagined life - death cycle. But its an illusion since we are all immortal, death is only transitory, as is life and birth.

Its kind of like an old school scale, once the whole thing gets heavier on the other side, in this case because of orders being placed, it tilts. Some people imagine its a matter of a moving average. Most indicators work on that kind of thing. Maybe, sort of there is some truth to that. But i think price itself tells it all and more clearly then indies ever will. Mind you, i wasnt always of this opinion as my older threads and such shows.



And this might well be where the orders came in from:



Follow the line and the conandrum is a conandrum no more.

You're right Yead about the scale imho . The bears are fatter lately and the bulls are too lean , getting euthanized poor things . Great week for shorting thanks for the insightful commentary , Peace .

You are welcome my friend!
Interesting PA we got on E/U, H4 looks like a rerun of 6th of december

Been a slow week but I think I got a good line...

Surprised to hear that you want to go commercial yaed but good luck

Why commercial?
Well, this is an idea ive had for a few weeks quite strongly now. The reason is that i think i have given more then i have gained from this, in many respect wonderfull virtual place we call forex factory. I have been honest and not witheld anything when i answered questions. I have written and shown all that i know and can teach. To my mind, if the path is followed and the information absorbed about those things i have written and shown, then being a profitable trader is no mystery. It has been a long and difficult journey for me to get to where i am, and all of the journey is within those threads and those replies that i have written. In short: I have given all that i feel i should. After the 2nd of february i will be occupied with making money, because of the necessities and luxuries of physical life. Where i ONLY spirit i should continue to give as freely as i have, but food, water and shelter from the elements is however necessary and for that i need money a little longer. I have a family to support. Yet i feel i do not let anybody down when concerning charity and friendship because my journey so far can still be followed without any charge for anyone willing to do so.

I need not argue any of these points, only speak my mind, that is what is important. In such a way that it is not important what i say or think about myself or what i know or dont know, since the history of price as we can see in the charts proves or disproves what i have been writing about. Therefore there is no need for sentiment or feelings, price is the objectivity that discerns and separates correct from wrong.

To put it simply: I will busy making money (or loosing it), so i wont have time as i used too.

Often i have ignored my own open positions to their detriment while being busy writing about how to trade. That sort of thing must stop since i have only a limited amount of time to make x amount of money. That time is not very long. On the other hand that x figure is not very big since almost none of my interests involves transactions of money (other then trading). Its not big but it is important that it is a positive number and not a negative one.

Oh and i a note for this:
Most of the stuff i have written here i have later disproved myself. Meaning its not at all necessary or even a smart idea to study my older ideas at length. The contributions i have made to this site has been a process, a long ardous process, and never a done deal. Until now that is. Of course i will still improve, or so i think, but that will in general be a thing for the people willing to pay for that knowledge.

The general entry
There is a very general idea of when to enter. I havent seen a lot of people use this, but the importance of it is confirmed in the charts themselves. It is one of the most simple form of reading Price action. Again, you dont have to take my word for it, just look at the charts.

The effect and importance of varies with timeframe and instrument. My experience is almost exclusively with eur/usd price, but the effect and importance of it is seen in other instruments. One thing that is important in this is that it seems to have a greater effect with greater timeframes. So for instance, in H4 it has a bigger effect then in M1.

I have tocuhed on this technique earlier, but maybe not explained it clearly enough.

Ok so here it is:
Going up and going down



The most simple form of SELL is in a candle thats either GOING DOWN or one that is VOLATILITY. The most simple form of BUY is in a candle thats either GOING UP or one that is VOLATILITY.

You should prefer not to keep a SELL position that indicates a BUY and vicer versa.

However, a candle that is VOLATILITY can, like this 6th candle with a green square around it, first break the high of the former candle and AFTERWARDS break the low of the candle before it. A candle that takes such a shape is sort of more a SELL indication then a BUY, since price has already been rejected at the top.

General S/R


The one green line


Why its not that simple

Its hard, not to say near impossible to give an exact calculation of HOW MUCH loss you COULD possibly incur before the position turns into profit, if you DID keep your position as price started going up above the blue marked area.

And like i said, i didnt INVENT this. To me, this is how it works, without all the bullshit and all the hidden "edge" some people talk about. This is the whole cabuse, no BS, no lies, no hidden nothing. There surely is more to it, but without this, so far as my knowledge goes, you will be loosing money, not make more of it. If i didnt think that was so, i wouldnt say it. And again, dont take my word for it, study the charts.

So far as i know, you dont need no online seminars or EAs or books on trading or pretty much ANY of the indicator based systems that ever existed. They are pretty much ALL crap. They are made by people who want to remove thinking from electronic trading, people who want simple formulas to do their work FOR them, making it mechanical. From my experience, thats just a impossible illusion, at least for the non institution sort of trading.

(The secret weapons) Trust and faith
If you do put most of your faith into lets say your H4 analysis of when to trade, you need to have confidence in your trade. With that confidence you can let your trade run a -10 or -20 loss or what ever, but still remain sort of confident that you will get a profit. Without this confidence, its very hard to make it. So how to aquire such confidence? Well it will or will not come with experience.

Faith in action
I think the universe helps the ones who helps themselves. There is no bulletproof way to analyze ourselves into certainty of how much we are going to get and how much we COULD loose. Faith is the bridge between what we see and what can become true, for we cannot KNOW FOR CERTAIN what the future will bring. But we can have FAITH that we will be OK. If i apply this to my own life, i dont KNOW FOR A FACT that i will be able to overcome the difficulties presented before me. But i shall have FAITH i can overcome them.

So too must the analysis of price have an element of faith.



Note: I dont mean that H4 in particular is "better" then any other timeframe, its just that i have been staring at it A LOT and it has its own shape and such.

We cant compute all the variables of our lives. If we fear death, life will be fear. If we fear loosing money when we trade, trading will be the loss of money.
I dont know that i am going to survive into old age. I cant gather and compute all the variables for such a mathematical operation. But there is no use shutting myself of from this, in many respects wretched and insane, but also wonderfull world that we live in. In short, we dont know how its going to turn out. Do we want to know? I dont, thats for sure. When i look into my sons eyes, sometimes i forget that. Sometimes i want to know that he is going to be OK. But i dont know that. I gotta keep on living anyway. I want to keep on living anyway. Death is just an illusion anyway.

So, happy trading folks!

Tuesday the 13th, +1% challenge to myself
On tuesday the 13th my woman will be with my son all day, so i will have time to trade. My target is +1% on my account. If i get enough beat up, lets say -2%, i will call it quits. Target is roughtly +1%, its within the limits of probability since i have managed +1.5% or +2% a few days here and there and i wasnt as good as i am now. Though if i get +2% i will call it quits for the day and go have a beer. I will make a trade explorer for it so anyone who wants to have a look you can do that. However, its not even certain i will be able to place any trades at all, if its going up all day i cant do anything. Probably it wont though. I will use eur/usd H4 and M5 chart. No previous analysis, no indicators and no old lines or anything.

The reason for only selling is the downtrend since may. Its very possible that the downtrend actually turned to uptrend that will last at least say monday, tuesday and wednesday at least, just as we hit that 1.17536 low of 2004.

My money management for the day is as such:
Roughly 65 pip represents 1% of my account.
I will use no more then 2 orders at the same time, perhaps in a hedge, or perhaps both the same way. But preferably just the one order at a time.

Thoughts on a sunday

The reason why im choosing this place, is because its a difficult place. Thats what i try to do, get to the hard stuff and figure out a way to live through it.
But anyway, its a shitty place, but if you are switched on, as you can see, there is as much of an upside as there is a downside to the candle after the sell entry. And why complain about losses you never had?

Timeframes and the practical aspects of life
There is a conandrum with combining trading with having a life in general: Since E/U price can easily move say 50 pips in 15 minutes, but normally maybe move only 10 pips in 15 minutes, trading H4 becomes a problem. Lets say you have your TP 43 pips from where price is currently. You go out to the store and buy cheese and sausages and you get back 30 minutes later just to see price rushed towards your TP, stopped 3 pips short of your TP and went the other way for 30 pips, putting you at a 10 pip win instead of a possible 40 pip win. That kind of thing happend to me... oh i dunno 20 times during this summer.

Sort of like this

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post7897378

Of course good stuff happend to. For instance this thing:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post7833081

200+ in what an hour?

This sort of thing is part of my life and i have to try to find a way to make it happen anyway. Although i almost NEVER see any people here dicussing things like that. I find that VERY weird. Kind of makes me think 99% of the people active here are scammers and sh1theads. Makes me wonder. Makes me wonder how many people here REALLY make the trades they claim. Makes me wonder a lot about stuff like that.

I used to trade quick stuff, M1 that sort of thing, but really my technique was crap, as can see seen here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=280019

But the possibilities of that is to be able to leave the god damn computer every once in a while and not stare at the damn numbers all day and all night. I had no idea how to read PA back then. But i guess its part of the learning curve. I never blew a single account though. I wasted 75% of my first account but at least i was smart enough to close the damn thing down with a little bit left. Since then i never really lost much of anything... I wonder what that means. Well i guess i will know in a 2-3 months.

I feel im getting a bit nostalgic here, maybe i will have a look at the 500 or so templates i made and see if there is anything to it? The sick thing is i remember most of it still, bouncing around in my scull. I can feel it in there, all of it.



Those are fibonacci sequence EMAs: 21,34,55,89,144. The idea was that as price moved into the EMAs it was time to trade as it met a moving S/R. Its so stupid it hurts. Or... im not sure, but i dont quite see whats the point? I can see what i was thinking without the EMAs. So whats the use? Just cluttering the chart.

Two on the line

Hopefully between diaper change and what ever random stuff happens in my life today i will have time to monitor these two.
This is a good example of say 10 pip SL breakout trade. The new one that is. If it goes shitty it could go shitty a lot more n´ those 10, so if i will use a traditional stoploss, it need to be just north of that line that i sold. The potential TP is A LOT. We have at least 90 pip down to the last proven S/R.

Thats a pretty neat risk/reward ratio. I can make about 8 trades like that if 7 goes shitty and the one goes my way im still at about positive.

Good scalp!
IM out.

Difference between scalping and higher TF trading
To me, with the knowledge i have now the difference between scalping and higher timeframe trading is NOT a matter of different entries, its a matter of different exists. Both is a matter of the lines, but the scalp is held no longer then any evidence of PA of the relevant timeframe reversing on your trade. The higher timeframe trade you keep, even if the PA of say M1 or M5 shows a reverse.

And then you have the "Take care of children, pick up the dishes, go to the store for groceries, change the wheels on your car" kind of scalping. Thats even on a shorter timeframe then the normal scalp. You have to sort of feel the smell of whats coming.

Well anyway, considering i think im doing pretty OK, 1 BE 11 wins:

I do have a streak of 65 winners though. But that was pretty high Timeframe so they can sort of be considered the same trade all of em.

I got a ride going down on a higher TF . I took the lower line formed before London opened . Either follow the big guys or fight them I follow .

Well my friend, aint no fighting them for very long!