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Let's Trade Options

  • #6,581
  • Jan 8, 2015 12:04pm Jan 8, 2015 12:04pm
Quoting StrayDog
.... (Can SPX jump like 2% today? or more, why not...)
why not, indeed? I may salvage some bullish spreads that I thought were lost causes - AAPL bull call Jan $116/116.43, etc. RSX Feb $19/20 call spread showing life. I rolled up some GLD Jan $109.50 short puts to Jan 23 $110.50 puts, made a credit spread. m/l deer in headlights here.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,582
  • Jan 8, 2015 12:16pm Jan 8, 2015 12:16pm
It would be interesting to see how much one can get for far OTM puts on EUR futures... with 45-60 DTE... will look at that...
feeling exhausted today...

I have SPY Feb 208/210 bear call spread, it doesn't bleed that much, vol contracted, that helps, will continue to hold it.

Ah that Evans guy... so what now, Bullard got his V reversal, so now every FOMC member will get his?
Where is that punch?


BBY IVR at 100 ... but the clock is ticking...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,583
  • Jan 8, 2015 12:37pm Jan 8, 2015 12:37pm
No surprises there...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I was thinking of wider version, but gave up...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,584
  • Jan 8, 2015 12:48pm Jan 8, 2015 12:48pm
Quoting StrayDog
IAh that Evans guy... so what now, Bullard got his V reversal, so now every FOMC member will get his? Where is that punch? BBY IVR at 100 ... but the clock is ticking...
Ya Evans and his cousin from Bwussels - Greece gonna be fine, just BTFD forever. Next few weeks could be interesting though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,585
  • Jan 8, 2015 12:53pm Jan 8, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting StrayDog
No surprises there... {image} I was thinking of wider version, but gave up...
she a baller. Lots of good opps coming up soon, though.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,586
  • Jan 8, 2015 5:02pm Jan 8, 2015 5:02pm
Quoting StrayDog
Example of aggressive counter trade.. selling the strength. {image} He sold calls, ATM or close to the money, on NFLX, SBUX, and TSLA... just selling the strength. It takes some balls for this, the ones I don't have. (And it also takes a portfolio margin account with lot of free cash)
205 was where we had the last drop from last friday, it had a gap to fill so makes sense to sell those calls but to richer a strategy for me to do and big balls required
  • #6,587
  • Jan 8, 2015 8:39pm Jan 8, 2015 8:39pm
IVR for MU has dropped to 0% post-ER, and I am in ok shape for profit on the Jan/Jan4 $31/$35 call calendar, the P/L analyzer is a good estimator after the crush, as i.v. will flat-line, maybe rise a little next week, and max P's are at the calendar strikes, $31 & $35, with a little zone of loss at the mid-range. Nothing to do now but wait, be ready to manage out of the trade if MU price appears to be sliding off the ends or settling in the middle.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,588
  • Jan 8, 2015 9:51pm Jan 8, 2015 9:51pm
Quoting StrayDog
It would be interesting to see how much one can get for far OTM puts on EUR futures... with 45-60 DTE...
looking at options on /6E, see some interesting things. Selling naked appears doable, comms are low, even on my shitty IRA cash accounts ... following are some example trades with little commentary
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,589
  • Edited 11:58pm Jan 8, 2015 11:02pm | Edited 11:58pm
Feb/Mar /6E double diagonal, costs about $600, max P about $490, b/e's at expiry $1.147 to $1.233, a near 800 pip profit zone
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,590
  • Jan 8, 2015 11:43pm Jan 8, 2015 11:43pm
well whaddaya know? - after 1-1/2 years and 330 pages we finally get around to talking about trading forex. I can see some interesting possibilities for trading spot fx and fx futures options together....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,591
  • Jan 8, 2015 11:57pm Jan 8, 2015 11:57pm
I did this GLD short term diagonal Thur, tried to get in @ $0.04 finally got in @ $0.05, risks $25 to make $165, need gold to slip into next week...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,592
  • Jan 9, 2015 12:28am Jan 9, 2015 12:28am
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,593
  • Jan 9, 2015 12:33am Jan 9, 2015 12:33am
noticed this "quikstrike" options analyzer on the CME website - looks free...

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...uikstrike.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,594
  • Jan 9, 2015 4:27am Jan 9, 2015 4:27am
Quoting The Fool
well whaddaya know? - after 1-1/2 years and 330 pages we finally get around to talking about trading forex. I can see some interesting possibilities for trading spot fx and fx futures options together....
That's the spirit! Futures options are cool. See that juice 500 pips away... I bet you can create a skewed short strangle wider than 1 SD and still get decent credit on lets say 60 DTE. OR wide Iron Condor. Looking forward to do them, and to see them on dough (they said dough will support futures options as well). Also, PDT rules DO NOT apply to futures or futures options. But, to be honest, one should really have big account especially for futures. People often doesn't realize the leverage there, and the shire size of those contracts (nominal value if you like it that way).
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,595
  • Jan 9, 2015 7:18am Jan 9, 2015 7:18am
hey SDog - re: fx futures options + spot fx - spot fx positions do not decay but fx options do, gotta be an exploitable angle there
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,596
  • Jan 9, 2015 7:46am Jan 9, 2015 7:46am
So, that is the volatility announced for 2015 from that article... scalpers wet dreams.
Holding positions...

Inserted Video
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,597
  • Jan 9, 2015 7:50am Jan 9, 2015 7:50am
looking around at trades I have made lately I can say generally the more non-directional trades have done better - the double diagonal and double calendar spreads; directional trades like bull call and bear put debit spreads have lost money, on the whole. Problem with the latter is the value trap - I have looked for cheap spreads but that has meant low probability of profit. I may still try to do them but will be wary of that trap in the future.

Only trades really hurting me though is a pack of natgas spreads, over-balanced bullish natgas, and of course natgas has crashed. I have until April to make good but need UNG to rise towards $17...need some help from Old Man Winter.

Looking ahead to doing more ER related trades in the coming weeks...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,598
  • Edited 9:08am Jan 9, 2015 8:47am | Edited 9:08am
Quoting The Fool
looking around at trades I have made lately I can say generally the more non-directional trades have done better ...
As I said before... becoming a fan of those non-directional trades... waiting for IV to ramp up, sell... on vol contraction buy-to-close, reload...
No home runs there, boring as hell, but it works. There are a group of not so expensive stocks, where you can get decent credit, and not risk to much.

About ER's - we are just starting this cycle. There will be plenty of juicy opps. Squeeze the juice...


Add-on
Buy volatility idea
VIX Jan 19/20 bull call spread for $0.23 debit?

Add-on II
(bought some @ $0.22)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,599
  • Edited 1:26pm Jan 9, 2015 12:12pm | Edited 1:26pm
trying to fill a jan/jan4 GLD $119/$120 call diag for $0.08, mm's not having it, want $0.10...it'll be there next week
(...filled it near the close)

Good week....I am getting closer. Have a good weekend all.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,600
  • Jan 9, 2015 7:05pm Jan 9, 2015 7:05pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to fill a jan/jan4 GLD $119/$120 call diag for $0.08, mm's not having it, want $0.10...it'll be there next week (...filled it near the close)
I like these 1-week turnaround diagonals. I could see doing stacks of these on weeklies, week in/week out. The enemy of the diagonal spread is the outsized move. GLD has been pretty well-behaved, but like many things, will put on a big weekly move sometimes. Will be exploring other good candidates.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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