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How do YOU stay in a winning trade?

  • #21
  • Jan 7, 2015 2:20pm Jan 7, 2015 2:20pm
A big thanks to all who have contributed to the discussion so far!
Freedom 30?
  • #22
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:35pm Jan 7, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting Torrent
So Silver and Lizzy, when you say you aren't using a stop loss, are you just leaving the positions at BE and letting it ride? Lizzy, Timing the retrace is my biggest issue as well. Like you, always too early!
No, when I say no stop loss, I mean no stop loss at all, not even at BE. Even if the price comes back past my entry point I will hang on until my target is hit. I never put on a trade unless I know the price will eventually move in my favour and I know exactly where the exit is. This helped keep me in the trade all the way until my taget price is reached.

I'll hang on when the price retraces and if it retraces far enough I will add to the position. This way when the trend decides to continue, I still have a position on and don't need to worry about timing a re-entry.

I don't know how long you hang on to trades, but I ride trends for years, which means I have only about 10 to max 15 trading days per year. Also as I wrote earlier, when you manage a portfolio, one trade moving against you doesn't effect you much, it's easy to manage the position and build on it to maximize profit
  • #23
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:39pm Jan 7, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting LizzyBennet
Also, I do not use stop loss. Ever. Since I have conviction on the long term trend and therefore trust that movements in the opposite direction are temporary, and since I keep enough of a capital buffer to absorb losses during these periods, I do not feel the need to use stop loss. I know this is a high risk strategy and most people will think me foolish. It can also only be done if you have the capital. However, I am much more profitable since I have stopped using stop loss. Previously when I used it as the textbooks told me to I was always cutting...
Lizzy,

Thank you for describing how you manage a position. When I first started trading, my biggest fear was missing out on the big moves. Just like you say, using SLs kept me out of the really big moves, so I learned to trade without it.
  • #24
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:55pm Jan 7, 2015 3:55pm
Quoting Silver777
{quote} No, when I say no stop loss, I mean no stop loss at all, not even at BE. Even if the price comes back past my entry point I will hang on until my target is hit. I never put on a trade unless I know the price will eventually move in my favour and I know exactly where the exit is. This helped keep me in the trade all the way until my taget price is reached. I'll hang on when the price retraces and if it retraces far enough I will add to the position. This way when the trend decides to continue, I still have a position on and don't need to...
Do you find that moving stops to BE and leaving them there was cutting into your profitability, or is it just preference?
Also, would I be right in assuming that fundamentals are a large part of your trading?

Ideally, I want to hang onto trades for a month at a minimum, but if the trend is working for me I want to keep it rolling.
Freedom 30?
  • #25
  • Jan 7, 2015 4:44pm Jan 7, 2015 4:44pm
Quoting LizzyBennet
Haha, Torrent/Tingus, I quite often have the opposite problem. When profits are adding up I think I can eke out some more and move my T/P price further away only to find that the place I originally planned to take profit was the best point and the point after which the pair started back tracking. I kick myself thinking I could have taken money off the table and re-entered at a better price. Every person has his/her own ratio of fear and greed, and for me, greed trumps fear more often than the other way round, sigh... I have improved quite a bit...
Yes, I've also been guilty about trying to squeeze more profit out of a trade than the market was willing to give and getting bitten in the rear! When I was trading shorter swings, the timing was always off, could've gotten in at a better price, timed the exit better, had a bigger position on and so on and so on. And when trading shorter swings, timing determines how much profit you take out of the market.

But when trading bigger swings, where a position is closed for several 1000s pips of profit, a 100 pips missed here or there really doesn't matter much. The timing of entries and exits aren't as critical as getting the direction right, managing the position and MM to exit with the largest position possible to maximize profits.
  • #26
  • Jan 7, 2015 4:48pm Jan 7, 2015 4:48pm
If u not trading for a long time you should never open your platform or even look at mobile apps etc... more than once in a day while u trading long term ... I have learned it too but after 2 years a couple of deleted accounts ... Because a had closing trades to soon and then i was a Tilt and wanted my money back or more money
  • #27
  • Jan 7, 2015 4:59pm Jan 7, 2015 4:59pm
Quoting Torrent
{quote} Do you find that moving stops to BE and leaving them there was cutting into your profitability, or is it just preference? Also, would I be right in assuming that fundamentals are a large part of your trading? Ideally, I want to hang onto trades for a month at a minimum, but if the trend is working for me I want to keep it rolling.
Hi Torrent,

Yes, for me, having stops at break even meant a lot of stop outs, where the price could retrace 100s of pips back passed my entry, only to take off in the direction I predicted. Missing out on a big opportunity caused me more stress than if I would have made a loss.

I understand that traders set SLs at BE when they have a relatively large position on, but I prefer to have a smaller position, no SL and add more if the price comes back.

Yes, fundamentals are the basis of my trading. I'm trying to use technical indicators (used MAs, stochastics, heiken-ashi, etc) to help me time my entries and exits a little better but honestly I haven't found an indicator that works any better than price action.
  • #28
  • Edited 5:43pm Jan 7, 2015 5:32pm | Edited 5:43pm
Quoting Torrent
When I trade I find my long term predictions on market direction to be quite accurate, but often I get shaken out of a position(s) long before my target has been met and then struggle to get back in and rebuild a sizable position. For instance the trends in USD/CAD and USD/JPY over the last year or so. So, the questions are simple. There are no right or wrong answers, just post what works for you. What method keeps you in for the long haul? How do you protect your floating profit? To look at a daily or weekly chart, in hindsight it's very simple....
Interesting thread discussion. Thanks Torrent.

What you may be experiencing is multi-timeframe dillema. This is a big problem for me as being a trend follower I was finding that I was having to take numerous bites at the cherry as my rules on my preferred timeframe of trade management (namely H1) was not set in accordance with the price action according to the higher timeframe.

I was finding that a trade exit of the H1 timeframe was associated with a minor retracement that was insignificant in respect to the retracement that occurred on the D1 timeframe (or upwards). In my analysis, those great trends I was following (which had the greatest gusto and hence contribution to my bottom line) were of a primary (more secular) nature than those trends emerging on the H1 timeframe. I have always been suspicious of whether a trend is just a random feature of this market or whether there is a slight underlying basis in this randomness that leads to positive expectancy. My conclusions so far is that market behaviour (such as the herd mentality) etc. create a small drift in all this randomness which is compounded on the higher timeframe but this is just an assumption at this stage.

In responding to this assumption in my approach I therefore had to remove my bias associated with the lower timeframes by executing on that timeframe but planning my decisions using the higher timeframes to achieve this. There was a sacrifice here to make in 'my greed tendencies' as my position sizes decreased as well as my trade frequency. To satisfy my urges however I upped the number of instruments in the portfolio on the assumption that there were fewer trades of substance with an instrument so to accommodate this, you increase the number of instruments. The portolio balancing on my results has been one of the big pluses for me in improving portolio expectancy.

The result is that my trade frequency on a single instrument has significantly declined which in my case was a good decision as overtrading has long been a problem of mine. There are benefits as well as associated costs of trading decrease which add to positive bias creep. Also position sizes has significantly declined given the greater breathing room associated with trade management using the higher timeframe, but my risk management perameters have stayed the same with a 0.5% risk per trade.

It is a work in progress at the moment but results are encouraging. :-)
  • #29
  • Jan 7, 2015 5:33pm Jan 7, 2015 5:33pm
Quoting Petr.K
If u not trading for a long time you should never open your platform or even look at mobile apps etc... more than once in a day while u trading long term ... I have learned it too but after 2 years a couple of deleted accounts ... Because a had closing trades to soon and then i was a Tilt and wanted my money back or more money
Too much screen time can definitely cause problems for me. I start to think too much and complicate something that should be very simple.
Freedom 30?
  • #30
  • Jan 7, 2015 5:37pm Jan 7, 2015 5:37pm
Quoting Silver777
{quote} Hi Torrent, Yes, for me, having stops at break even meant a lot of stop outs, where the price could retrace 100s of pips back passed my entry, only to take off in the direction I predicted. Missing out on a big opportunity caused me more stress than if I would have made a loss. I understand that traders set SLs at BE when they have a relatively large position on, but I prefer to have a smaller position, no SL and add more if the price comes back. Yes, fundamentals are the basis of my trading. I'm trying to use technical indicators (used...
I don't handle large DD well. I prefer to find entries on the 4H that coincide with the daily and weekly setups. If I get stopped out I will enter later at a better price.
I'm not trading huge size so it won't be anything but a small loss.
Freedom 30?
  • #31
  • Jan 7, 2015 5:47pm Jan 7, 2015 5:47pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Interesting thread discussion. Thanks Torrent. What you may be experiencing is multi-timeframe dillema. This is a big problem for me as being a trend follower I was finding that I was having to take numerous bites at the cherry as my rules on my preferred timeframe of trade management (namely H1) was not set in accordance with the price action according to the higher timeframe. I was finding that a trade exit of the H1 timeframe was associated with a minor retracement that was insignificant in respect to the retracement that occurred on...
Thanks Copernicus, you are spot on about the MTF dilemma.
I used to trade 4H charts for setups, entering on the 15M. The problem I found was that I would let the 15M dictate my trading decisions in regards to entries and exits.
I still look at the 15M, but all my entries and exits have to make sense to me according to what is happening on the 4H.
What I'm hoping to do at this point, is still enter on the 4H and move to BE once the trade has some breathing room... I will leave the amount of breathing room up to my discretion at the time. Once I have some runners I will just leave the stops at BE and manage the trade from there. I think instead of moving my stops up to trail the market, I will just scale out of some of the positions if I feel a major retracement is going to happen.
Freedom 30?
  • #32
  • Jan 7, 2015 5:48pm Jan 7, 2015 5:48pm
Quoting LizzyBennet
Haha, Torrent/Tingus, I quite often have the opposite problem. When profits are adding up I think I can eke out some more and move my T/P price further away only to find that the place I originally planned to take profit was the best point and the point after which the pair started back tracking. I kick myself thinking I could have taken money off the table and re-entered at a better price. Every person has his/her own ratio of fear and greed, and for me, greed trumps fear more often than the other way round, sigh... I have improved quite a bit...
Just like me. I was once like you. But experience has taught us how to be a good trader.
Let the market comes to you!
  • #33
  • Jan 7, 2015 5:58pm Jan 7, 2015 5:58pm
Sounds logical Torrent.

If it helps at all here is how I approach the level of breathing room required. I leave trade exit decisions to my standard deviation channel on H1 and prevent myself from interfering. It is working for me as an ongoing trade management tool that makes its decisions on the complete price history of the trend you are riding. The good thing is that time in trend is your friend as it naturally brings you to breakeven when the trend decides. Unlike other trailing exit techniques such as Chalkin, moving average etc. that defines the number of price periods to its calculation, the standard deviation channel is based on the entire price series of the trend alone ad not the pre-trend phase and hence moves, expands and contracts more dynamically with the trend. If on entry you ensure the H1 Standard deviation channel (SDC) is in accordance with the D1, W1 etc SDC, then even though you are watching on H1, the SDC is representative of the longer timeframe. It dynamically adjusts to the characteristics of the trend as it evolves in time and hence covers MTF well.

All the best

C
  • #34
  • Jan 7, 2015 6:06pm Jan 7, 2015 6:06pm
Quoting Copernicus
Sounds logical Torrent. If it helps at all here is how I approach the level of breathing room required. I leave stop decisions to my standard deviation channel on H1 and prevent myself from interfering. It is working for me as an ongoing trade management tool that makes its decisions on the complete price history of the trend you are riding. The good thing is that time in trend is your friend as it naturally brings you to breakeven when the trend decides. Unlike other exit techniques such as Chalkin, moving average etc. that defines the number of...
Thanks C, I'm not familiar with the deviation channel but it sounds like a useful tool.
Freedom 30?
  • #35
  • Jan 7, 2015 6:10pm Jan 7, 2015 6:10pm
Quoting Torrent
{quote} Thanks C, I'm not familiar with the deviation channel but it sounds like a useful tool.
It is really my only tool (aside from hints of a Donchian) and I have got to know it well. Anyway, thanks for the thread. Lots of great discussions in here. :-)
  • #36
  • Edited 6:40pm Jan 7, 2015 6:22pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} It is really my only tool (aside from hints of a Donchian) and I have got to know it well. Anyway, thanks for the thread. Lots of great discussions in here. :-)
Thanks for your contribution! Sometimes you just need to think out loud and bounce ideas off of people.
Freedom 30?
  • #37
  • Jan 7, 2015 7:20pm Jan 7, 2015 7:20pm
Something that I have found helps, is to have some positions that are somewhat insulated from the US Dollar. Something like EUR/CAD helps to diversify my portfolio.
I find this helpful in controlling how grumpy I get when the Dollar has a bad week!
A poor state of mind is something I used to fall prey to on a regular basis. I'd still be trading when I was too busy or having a bad week and my trading would suffer because of my lack of concentration.
Freedom 30?
  • #38
  • Jan 7, 2015 7:28pm Jan 7, 2015 7:28pm
Quoting Torrent
Something that I have found helps, is to have some positions that are somewhat insulated from the US Dollar. Something like EUR/CAD helps to diversify my portfolio. I find this helpful in controlling how grumpy I get when the Dollar has a bad week! A poor state of mind is something I used to fall prey to on a regular basis. I'd still be trading when I was too busy or having a bad week and my trading would suffer because of my lack of concentration.
My sentiments exactly. I listen to my thoughts and try to disrupt any emotional bias...and that truly is a work in progress. That's where bots come in handy. If only they had the analytical power of the brain. Maybe not far off......

Inserted Video
  • #39
  • Jan 7, 2015 7:35pm Jan 7, 2015 7:35pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} My sentiments exactly. I listen to my thoughts and try to disrupt any emotional bias...and that truly is a work in progress. That's where bots come in handy. If only they had the analytical power of the brain. Maybe not far off...... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOi6v5DD_1M
LOL!
Freedom 30?
  • #40
  • Jan 7, 2015 7:50pm Jan 7, 2015 7:50pm
Quoting Torrent
When I trade I find my long term predictions on market direction to be quite accurate, but often I get shaken out of a position(s) long before my target has been met and then struggle to get back in and rebuild a sizable position. For instance the trends in USD/CAD and USD/JPY over the last year or so. So, the questions are simple. There are no right or wrong answers, just post what works for you. What method keeps you in for the long haul? How do you protect your floating profit? To look at a daily or weekly chart, in hindsight it's very simple....
Firstly, Long term is both not a measurable target (one persons view of LT could be a week and anothers a year) and to be honest it is irrelevant because eventually markets come back. Employing a Break Even strategy and being happy with it is also quite pointless because you will have opportunities or signs that a turn is coming and taking some, or all of the profits may be beneficial. This all being said I think if you chew yourself up for not taking profits, or not leaving trades running because of hindsight then you will not be [as] successful.

In all honest there needs to be plan to be honest. A plan for executing your trade and a plan for managing the trade. I have found that in the past if I traded to my plan and executed the limits and the stops as per it, that I have done well enough to keep active in the market so that I don't have just 1 or 2 positions that I watch long term. I am not very good at sitting on my hands. Also when you trade to your plan you have something you can come back to. If you just take a trade and try to hold it for the long term but find being stopped out at BE after being up 100, 200 or more points you will not have any reference to go back too.

I honestly also think in order to be a long term trader you also need to have a element of short term trading which means taking trades against your current trade when they occur, allowing you to leave a trade open and forget about it. You will have some winners and losers along that path but I think the millipede thread and a few others are a good start in building positions in both directions that allow for the opportunity of long tails.

Wish you all the best

RT
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