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Let's Trade Options

  • #6,541
  • Edited 10:13am Jan 6, 2015 9:23am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting The Fool
if the SnP will bounce a little bit tomorrow I will look to sell some Jan SPY bear call spreads {image}
I used this bounce right now, to enter a few of SPY Jan30 200.5/200 bear put spreads for $0.15 debit.
well, too soon, this is rallying right now... I expected to go further down after this bad ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, but is bad news really good news, or bad news is bad news, or ... WTF


Add-on
Managed to bank a whooping 7 points on SPX CFDs short, and also managed to accidentally close a perfect short on DAX
I just hate scalping this shit, but couldn't resist.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,542
  • Edited 12:19pm Jan 6, 2015 10:10am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting StrayDog
On last ER's cycle, I did a Iron Condor for MU.....
MU
Not very excited about credit received on either Iron Condor (like Jan9 30/31.5 + 35.5/37 for ~$0.50 CR) or Short Strangle (like 30.50/36.50 for ~0.52 CR)

I am thinking about vertical spreads, like Jan9 34/34.5 call spreads, I see there is some volume on them.
Maybe go directionally, with the market, and sell those spreads for $0.20 CR?


add-on
The million-dollar bet on Micron earnings

"Specifically, the trader sold 3,700 January 35-strike calls and used the proceeds to buy 3,700 of the July 35-strike calls for $3.65. The trade, which cost a total of more than $1 million, is a bet that Micron shares will surge above $38.65 per share by July expiration, or up another 17 percent from current levels. That would also be a more than 10-year high."

Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,543
  • Jan 6, 2015 12:28pm Jan 6, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} MU Not very excited about credit received on either Iron Condor (like Jan9 30/31.5 + 35.5/37 for ~$0.50 CR) or Short Strangle (like 30.50/36.50 for ~0.52 CR) I am thinking about vertical spreads, like Jan9 34/34.5 call spreads, I see there is some volume on them. Maybe go directionally, with the market, and sell those spreads for $0.20 CR?
On MU I did a Jan/Jan4 double calendar - $31/$36, for $0.23 debit - at least I put that in, have not been able to see if it filled yet.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,544
  • Jan 6, 2015 1:45pm Jan 6, 2015 1:45pm
MU
After all, I did a short strangle Jan9 29.5/36 for $0.50 credit ($0.25 for each side, more room to the downside).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MU ERs SS.png Size: 73 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,545
  • Jan 6, 2015 1:52pm Jan 6, 2015 1:52pm
After 5 down days, we could see an up day tomorrow, or at least a flat one, and then some consolidation... idk.
ECB and FOMC this month - do they have anything new to say? But Grexit... and political tensions in Germany... and 2 bad US PMIs in a row...
Volatility ahead.
What are you thinking everybody?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,546
  • Jan 6, 2015 3:42pm Jan 6, 2015 3:42pm
Quoting StrayDog
After 5 down days, we could see an up day tomorrow, or at least a flat one, and then some consolidation... idk. ECB and FOMC this month - do they have anything new to say? But Grexit... and political tensions in Germany... and 2 bad US PMIs in a row... Volatility ahead. What are you thinking everybody?
I'd bet the US indices will stay under pressure in the next weeks, at least until the ECB and Greek elections dramas play out. So you could sell US index etf/futures calls, sell UST (TLT, /ZB) puts.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,547
  • Jan 6, 2015 6:59pm Jan 6, 2015 6:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'd bet the US indices will stay under pressure in the next weeks, at least until the ECB and Greek elections dramas play out. So you could sell US index etf/futures calls, sell UST (TLT, /ZB) puts.
I think this may be it for the $USD for a while, yesterdays high of 92.05, will be watching carefully
  • #6,548
  • Jan 6, 2015 7:10pm Jan 6, 2015 7:10pm
if S/P bears break 1963 and we trade below then, a retest of 1963 ish and if it rejects again then I'm looking for a 200 point drop to test 1700
  • #6,549
  • Jan 6, 2015 9:41pm Jan 6, 2015 9:41pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I think this may be it for the $USD for a while, yesterdays high of 92.05, will be watching carefully
I have been hearing more than a few pundits saying they think fiber will bounce after the markets are disappointed by what will be deemed a weak approach to QE by the ECB. Not sure I buy that. And I don't think the ECB can pull off anything other than weak QE. Still 2 weeks to go til the next Draghi show...USD still pushing lower.

Actually, I thought they would send fiber deep down from the last Jackson Hole, and that has what has happened. It was always gonna be easier for the euro to get pushed down than it was to do a Fed-style QE program in the EMU. And a weak euro is what the doctor ordered. Can be questioned why the euro was kept so dramatically over-valued for so long? Now the ECB gonna buy sovereign debt and do what, push basket case Spanish bond yields sub-zero? Bah. When the euro drops below parity with the USD I will finally be able to afford a budget cheese tour of France. Not that I'd go....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,550
  • Jan 6, 2015 9:54pm Jan 6, 2015 9:54pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
if S/P bears break 1963 and we trade below then, a retest of 1963 ish and if it rejects again then I'm looking for a 200 point drop to test
1700
CG I think we could be in for a deeper drop than that if the dark planets align just right. We'd need to see the crude price sink deep into the $40's or even sub-$40 and stay there and we'd need to see some panic in the Eurozone. WE have the makings of that drama, it just needs to be put together. Let's see if a "Grexit" won't do the trick. If that does not come to pass then maybe Putin can take the stage. If oil keeps crashing and stays crashed, the possibilities for market-chilling developments start multiplying.

I will be getting into some cheap diagonal SPY bear put spreads to try to get positioned for some big downside action....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,551
  • Jan 6, 2015 10:09pm Jan 6, 2015 10:09pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} On MU I did a Jan/Jan4 double calendar - $31/$36, for $0.23 debit - at least I put that in, have not been able to see if it filled yet.
Did get filled and MU dropped 6-7%, settled at $31.30 @ the close. I need to hold the calendars for some days to develop the best profit...IFF MU stays in the double calendar profit zone...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,552
  • Jan 7, 2015 7:27am Jan 7, 2015 7:27am
A small trivia...

Stockbroker fired after Twitter joke about hitting cyclist

Rayhan Qadar, who worked for Bristol-based financial service company Hargreaves Lansdown, was fired after tweeting: "Think I just hit a cyclist. But Im late for work so had to drive off lol."

What a reason to get fired. If his name was John Smith, instead of Rayhan Qadar, he would probably still work there.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,553
  • Jan 7, 2015 7:27am Jan 7, 2015 7:27am
Sitting here with a MU calender call Jan 09-16 $ 35. Got it at $.165 avg. So I could use a bit of recovery 'till Friday...
  • #6,554
  • Jan 7, 2015 8:11am Jan 7, 2015 8:11am
Quoting Vermeer
Sitting here with a MU calender call Jan 09-16 $ 35. Got it at $.165 avg. So I could use a bit of recovery 'till Friday...
Vermeer, welcome to the thread!

Feel free to discuss any trading ideas. TF is very active and very good trader.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,555
  • Jan 7, 2015 8:37am Jan 7, 2015 8:37am
Quoting StrayDog
MU After all, I did a short strangle Jan9 29.5/36 for $0.50 credit ($0.25 for each side, more room to the downside). {image}
Closed the strangles for $0.20 debit, I am sure I could do better than that, but I have other things to do, so booking a quick profit and releasing margin (and it is Ortodox Christmas today)...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,556
  • Jan 7, 2015 9:50am Jan 7, 2015 9:50am
Quoting Vermeer
Sitting here with a MU calender call Jan 09-16 $ 35. Got it at $.165 avg. So I could use a bit of recovery 'till Friday...
ditto hi & welcome, Vermeer. Yup, that's the problem with calendars - you're tied to a directional bet. You can up your odds by doing a double calendar, as I have done on MU, but I could end up losing, too, if MU slides hard down below $30 by next week...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,557
  • Jan 7, 2015 10:32am Jan 7, 2015 10:32am
Thanks StrayDog & The Fool Well, MU position is quite small so don't worry about me! I didn't think about a double calendar, that's a good one, thanks!

IV BBBY for Jan 09 & 16 increasing, though for feb series flat... hmm tempting
  • #6,558
  • Jan 7, 2015 10:46am Jan 7, 2015 10:46am
Quoting StrayDog
Closed the strangles for $0.20 debit, I am sure I could do better than that...
Ah that patience... never there when you need one. The mofo trading now for $0.08...
Note to myself: squeeze the juice man... just squeeeeeezeeeeee that tasty juice.

Attached Image


Of bigger companies - ER's tomorrow BMO - there are STZ and FDO... what to say about those options? Bad and ugly. Bid/ask spread like Grand Canyon on FDO options, just undo-able. Skipping both of them, and maybe will do something tomorrow for BBBY.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,559
  • Jan 7, 2015 11:10am Jan 7, 2015 11:10am
BBBY, I'm not so brave, big $4+ expected move...

Waiting to see if dovefest Fed will extend the SnP rally thru the week, I'm still thinking there's a trap door waiting to open but wary also of bullish earnings run about to get underway
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,560
  • Jan 7, 2015 12:42pm Jan 7, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting The Fool
BBBY, I'm not so brave, big $4+ expected move...
BBBY @ $77.75 now. I will look tomorrow in more detail, current e.m. of $4.25 is about 5.45% - that is not a problem. If IV ramps up a bit, it will be a bit larger.
MU had e.m. of up to 6.7%.

I have to put some more details about BBBY prior movements in my table, cos I only have info that I gave up on Iron Condor for Sep 2014 ER's, but that "it would be OK, price breached E.M. to the upside, but later was OK"...


THE IVR 90-100 CLUB
(notice the Best Buy, only stock that have incredibly high IVR and no upcoming earnings soon)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IVR_90-100.png Size: 16 KB


BBY - Jan 41 calls are $1.00... that means that b/e is at $42, or almost 10% away from current price, with only 9 DTE... Juicy.
But I already have enough naked options on that stock.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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