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Every system can work

  • #61
  • Jan 3, 2015 9:55am Jan 3, 2015 9:55am
Quoting Big_A
{quote} Good day to you Sclipp, before getting into the details I have two questions for you: 1. 4H TF - is it your preferable TF to trade? Do you feel comfortable with it? If you enter too early maybe you have to check 1H TF? It is not the system that dictates the TF, but the trader. 2. Do you really need oscillator (like CCI, MACD, etc.) to feel more assured / affirmative / confident to open the position? Anyway, I am going to get into this simple yet effective way of long term trading more deeper. Cheers, A.
Hi Big A

Your questions are thought provoking
1. On the 4 hour I noticed sometimes that a better entry is when the CCI crosses back above -100. (On uptrend)
On the 1 hour I noticed that there are several divergences on the CCI before the price returns to its trend
2. I guess I don't really need the oscillator if I traded like Briian, who waits for break of trend line of the correction ( post# 37)
Thank you

Sylvia
Ps I liked your response to the trading chaos method. What does that mean alligator aligned?
Thank you
  • #62
  • Jan 3, 2015 10:36am Jan 3, 2015 10:36am
This recent GJ buy trade did not work out for me. This is what happened. I guess the trend changed
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #63
  • Jan 3, 2015 10:44am Jan 3, 2015 10:44am
Sylvia,

the questions I have asked really should be answered for yourself very honestly. You see, it is of the greatest importance in a trading to know oneself. If you are impatient and use 4H TF just because it is more reliable and not because it is the time span you are really well adjusted in everyday life... It is something very artificial and not common conscious time unit normally humans use. And I always prefer to use TF that has some psychological meaning.
On the other hand, 4H TF is between trading (1H and below) and investing (1D and above). You obviously know that 4H TF candles are different because of the different local time brokers use and as so some patterns can not be applied with ease.
Again, oscillators normally are used with 1D and above charts. Surely you can still use them on lower TF (I sometimes use them too) but then you have to really know what they are telling and you should not use them to spot OB / OS areas. So if you want to continue and use CCI I would highly recommend taking just one good working setup (like 100 rejection as in pic below) and use only that.
To sum up I wanted to say that one should not mix trading with investing. I'll touch that maybe later but that's also one of the issues why traders fail. If you are trading (more like gamble) your MM is totally different from investing.
I'll get into the system on my next post. As for Alligator I just forgot how ol' Billy really called it then all the lines are nicely aligned as in the pic No2. He used some funny words like sleeping and hungry or something and I always find this type of naming game quite silly (that's not to say about chaos system itself).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A.
For my fallen angels.
  • #64
  • Edited 11:42am Jan 3, 2015 11:11am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting sclipp
This recent GJ buy trade did not work out for me. This is what happened. I guess the trend changed {image} {image}
There is nothing bad with your entry, however, I would enter only if the price is above 50 MA and CCI/MACD/STOCH (whatever) shows instrument is currently oversold. Additionally, I would look for a kind of quick PA signaling bearish rejection and in this particular case that obviously wasn't.

Now even according to your rules I'd like to shed some light on your entry and system: it is working even as it is Look at the pic on my platform (notice the difference in 4H candles and PA). If I would enter according to your rules I would have nice profit. To my naked I it was absolutely obvious TP point just below 4H resistance (notice how 188 rejected the price many times, also note that doji just before the price fell). Also you have to take care about fundamentals as well.
(I still couldn't get into the details with your system )

P.S. Having in mind strong GBPJPY uptrend and the divergence forming on 4H chart on CCI there is still quite a nice entry long. However that would be risky now as GJ stayed for the long time in the uptrend and the last retrace was quite deep signaling potential loses at least on the 4H and 1D charts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_JPY_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 19 KB


A.
For my fallen angels.
  • #65
  • Jan 3, 2015 11:12am Jan 3, 2015 11:12am
Yes, I will redefine what kind of a trader I am and want to be. It's difficult to turn it inwards. Trading has been a most fascinating and emotional journey for me, but nevertheless I am still optimistic. I did not know that oscillators were more effective on D1 time frames and up, but looking at UJ it is so true. in my opinion, you are a strange, but wonderful guardian angel...
  • #66
  • Jan 3, 2015 11:48am Jan 3, 2015 11:48am
Hi Big A

I posted before I read your last post. Thanks for your analysis and for confirming that price needs to be above 50 MA to be bullish. Also I got the answer I needed about time frames, which has been quite confusing for me. I have always wondered if any particular strategy has a time frame for which it is best suited.
  • #67
  • Jan 5, 2015 2:29am Jan 5, 2015 2:29am
Good day Sylvia,

first of all, thank you for your nice words. However, I would strongly advice you not to trust anyone here on the FF or other FX forums, including me myself Always use your own judgement and common sense. My best advice is to find someone who has proven track of trading history and meet personally...
I can also recommend checking Skenobi posts (http://www.forexfactory.com/skenobi). I don't read much here on FF, but from his posts I can say that he is / was really pro guy.

Now, onto your system with my slight adjustments and thoughts (this will be for longs, use opposite rules for shorts).

(We are using 4H TF + 14 CCI + 50 EMA)

1. Identify trending pair on 1D and 1W charts. Check fundamental background. You can look at the COT charts, weekly / monthly currency strenght chart, use reuter / bloomberg / barchart pro analysis. I also like to check dukascopy or whatever on the pair and see how many traders are long / short. For longs I would go for a pair that has over 70 % shorts
2. Make sure pair is above 50 MA.
3. Wait CCI to go below -100.
4a. Check news calendar (use several links, here on FF, bloomberg, FPA and the like). Check forums (like FF) threads on the pair you trade. You have to make sure the retrace happened to some news event and not because some major breakdown happened. You can also easily skip this and go to
4b. Wait for the PA to signal trend resumed. Do not hurry, let the price tell you the story - you could check every 4H period for 3 - 4 periods. If trend resumed, open position.
5. Because it's not purely technical entry use wide SL, or as I say - emergency SL. I would suggest having 2x 1D ATR (14 periods), you can use daily support area to have SL below. You can use also turtle method of a stops (indi attached, use on the daily chart).
6. Visually evaluate how much the pair advanced from the beginning of the trend. Make you TP slightly the less then the first leg of trend (say, if price advanced 500 pips, use 450 pips TP).
7. Close 2/3 of your position regardless where price is after 2 days (48 hours, preferably just after NY close). Let 1/3 of the position run if you are in the profit. Close the rest if you are in the loss and SL is not hit.

Hope this helps,

A.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 i-TurtlesStop.mq4   4 KB | 417 downloads
For my fallen angels.
  • #68
  • Jan 5, 2015 7:19am Jan 5, 2015 7:19am
Hi Big A

I now understand why the trades did not work. The bigger trend was overlooked, and I did not confirm that the trend has resumed. I blindly entered upon the CCI being over/undersold. Stop loss was useless. May I ask:

1. If the daily trend is up, but the 4H trend is down, would you a) enter a sell upon CCI being above +100 and down trend confirmed or b) not counter trend the bigger trend? Sometimes the big corrections last a long time.
2. What does PA stand for?
3. Do you normally open 3 positions?
4. Do you ever open a sell and then have a buy stop just in case the price reverses? (With monitoring of course.)

gratitude
Syl
  • #69
  • Jan 5, 2015 7:55am Jan 5, 2015 7:55am
Quoting sclipp
Hi Big A I now understand why the trades did not work. The bigger trend was overlooked, and I did not confirm that the trend has resumed. I blindly entered upon the CCI being over/undersold. Stop loss was useless. May I ask: 1. If the daily trend is up, but the 4H trend is down, would you a) enter a sell upon CCI being above +100 and down trend confirmed or b) not counter trend the bigger trend? Sometimes the big corrections last a long time. 2. What does PA stand for? 3. Do you normally open 3 positions? 4. Do you ever open a sell and then have...
Quickly:

1. No, I wouldn't enter countertrend (having in mind TF you trade)
2. PA = price action
3. Again, if that is 4H TF I could open and hold 3 positions (it depends on the exact situation)
4. Sometimes (on the ultrashort TF), normally I would not recommend doing this.

A.
For my fallen angels.
  • #70
  • Jan 5, 2015 8:59am Jan 5, 2015 8:59am
thank you so much
I shall start my trading day anew
  • #71
  • Jan 6, 2015 8:59am Jan 6, 2015 8:59am
Quoting Sekhbet
Hello Big A. Have a look Can it work??? Would like it mechanized to and EA
Hi to you Sekhbet,

I guess you haven't read all the thread from the beginning. There is no single (one) EA or mechanical system that is going to work without human intervention.

Now, HA is just a simple price averaging method that uses modified MA (averaged) crossover. It is used to help a naked eye to read the chart more easily. As a mechanical approach sadly it won't work.

Your TP and SL ratio (1:5) is hugely negatively skewed and that means a sure fire loss in the long run. Any speculating (and that is exactly what it is using 1H and lower TF) system is a gamble first of all. I would suggest you reading some articles at least about that (managing risk of a loss and profit). Surely, this is also the main defect of a mechanical system.

Anyway, if you still want to use such type of an EA, make sure you have TP:SL ratio at least 5:4.

You would also need some kind of semi-martingale approach, say the last (summing all previous losses) loss totaling 10% of all you account value. Make sure you are trading the pair which is on the calendar news as well (you need something to trigger a move of the pair).

However, to sum, I would stay away from a mechanical approach.

Cheers.
For my fallen angels.
  • #72
  • Jan 6, 2015 9:32am Jan 6, 2015 9:32am
Thank you sir!!!
Chasing The Dream...
  • #73
  • Jan 8, 2015 8:54pm Jan 8, 2015 8:54pm
hi Big A
I did a CCI H4 trade- sell GJ - net 60 pips
I made sure price was below 50 SMA on H4 while CCI was above +100 on H4.
I waited for trend to resume, however, getting in early as usual, I put my trade to B/E ASAP, and then got back in 3-4 times. Each time, I either got to B/E, small profit or had a loss of no more than 15 pips.
I exited 2 positions for the first wave for a bucket trade.


Thanks a lot for your help.
Sylvia
  • #74
  • Jan 9, 2015 1:18am Jan 9, 2015 1:18am
Quoting sclipp
hi Big A I did a CCI H4 trade- sell GJ - net 60 pips I made sure price was below 50 SMA on H4 while CCI was above +100 on H4. I waited for trend to resume, however, getting in early as usual, I put my trade to B/E ASAP, and then got back in 3-4 times. Each time, I either got to B/E, small profit or had a loss of no more than 15 pips. I exited 2 positions for the first wave for a bucket trade. Thanks a lot for your help. Sylvia
For my fallen angels.
  • #75
  • Jan 9, 2015 1:34am Jan 9, 2015 1:34am
Hi Big A
I exited my last position as I needed to stop for a total of 110 pips. GJ moves really fast! I will trade the next time with as much care and patience....that's difficult for me as I am quite impulsive. I have no problems entering, but that means I also exit impulsively as well.
...forex is the hardest thing I've ever done......!
  • #76
  • Jan 20, 2015 4:04am Jan 20, 2015 4:04am
So, this is exactly why many traders lose - they simply refuse to understand that it is not the HG / any other miracle type system could make them enjoy their profits but their sound judgement and refined / discrete trading style.
For my fallen angels.
  • #77
  • Mar 1, 2015 4:56am Mar 1, 2015 4:56am
Hi Big A,

here's the system i propose for your modification/comment:

Everyday place limit orders for all pairs at small lot size.

place buy limit order at structure support found between/around ADR(5)Low and ADR(14)Low that coincide with S1 or S2.

Likewise,

place sell limit order at structure resistance found between/around ADR(5)High and ADR(14)High that coincide with R1 or R2.

Then,

If the daily limit order filled, expect bounce from entry price and look for 20% of ADR range as TP, SL trigger when 1hour close higher/lower of previous swing support/resistance.

At every major news, check the data deviation vs expectation, should it overshot by 20%, remove that particular limit orders that counter the news, and place market order in the direction of deviation to ride it to the ADR high/low as TP.
How would you (or anyone) improvise?
  • #78
  • Mar 1, 2015 6:32am Mar 1, 2015 6:32am
Pivot points + SR +Volumes + MM + wait for the trade to come to me = consistent return. Lak
  • #79
  • Mar 2, 2015 12:48am Mar 2, 2015 12:48am
Quoting belief
Hi Big A, here's the system i propose for your modification/comment: Everyday place limit orders for all pairs at small lot size. place buy limit order at structure support found between/around ADR(5)Low and ADR(14)Low that coincide with S1 or S2. Likewise, place sell limit order at structure resistance found between/around ADR(5)High and ADR(14)High that coincide with R1 or R2. Then, If the daily limit order filled, expect bounce from entry price and look for 20% of ADR range as TP, SL trigger when 1hour close higher/lower of previous swing support/resistance....
I am the advocate of a rational trading more and not the pure gambling as your suggested way of trading seems to me to be. The statistical model shows that there is a slight chance of success if you try to catch some pips on the rebound of some "significant" price levels. There is a good chance, i.e. that EU would bounce off every 30 pips away from daily open (or so). However, such a blindfolded set off of pending orders (especially for all pairs) are nothing less than some sophisticated gambling (and yes, I do know, that it is true that every style of trading is more or less linked / is per se with gambling).
So to sum up and give you my point of view in short - get rid off all ADRs, S/Rs and alike; avoid putting pending orders and look to the price action at your chosen significant levels. Say, for intraday trading use 15 min TF to decide if price is going to bounce off of your level. Use very tight stop loss and try to take at least 2x profit than your SL.

Good luck,

A.
For my fallen angels.
  • #80
  • Mar 2, 2015 12:50am Mar 2, 2015 12:50am
Quoting lakhan
Pivot points + SR +Volumes + MM + wait for the trade to come to me = consistent return. Lak
Really, huh?
For my fallen angels.
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