Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 255 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,081
  • Dec 29, 2014 7:01am Dec 29, 2014 7:01am
Quoting panoramia
I've created another video which you can see in this post. This time it's a shorter one A live GBPUSD short trade I took last thursday which I am still holding. On this video you will see: - How I use the rectangle reader indicator to draw my SD zones on higher timeframes, and how easy it's to know how high or low you are in the D1 and WK supply curve by having the automatic trendlines painted on the distal and proximal lines of those rectangles - The exact reasons why I took the short trade and why I want to hold it - How to use the higher timeframe...
I've tried to open the video but the warning is "The video is private"???
  • #5,082
  • Dec 30, 2014 3:45am Dec 30, 2014 3:45am
Quoting sonigl
{quote} I've tried to open the video but the warning is "The video is private"???
Some videos had to be deleted or made private in the past, it's described in the thread in a few posts. If the video is private. There are many more videos to watch, enough to bore you to death
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,083
  • Dec 30, 2014 3:46am Dec 30, 2014 3:46am
I will be away till next year, won't be trading for more than a week, I'm on holidays with the family. Christmas time in Spain lasts till the 6th January, our celebration is different and Santa is not in our traditon, we have the 3 Magicians the 5th January at night

Wish you Merry Xmas and a happy new year!
My best wishes,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,084
  • Dec 30, 2014 5:45am Dec 30, 2014 5:45am
hi alfonso

you come to your set and forget forum after 6th january?
  • #5,085
  • Dec 31, 2014 2:47am Dec 31, 2014 2:47am
Quoting cnnewt61
Hi, Alfanso In this chart, I didn't give you any info about the pair name or the time frame or the date. So just by your experience, which zone (A OR B) in the chart will you wait for selling? A zone is the origin, but many times , price will not back to that so high zone. Selling B zone is quite a good choice, but also many failures. {image}
As per the rules in this thread (read post#1), the trendlines and zones you drew are not correct, you didn't follow them. Did price drop from those areas? Yes, but the zones are not drawn as dictated in the rules, neither the trendlines.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,086
  • Dec 31, 2014 2:47am Dec 31, 2014 2:47am
Quoting ronentn
hi alfonso you come to your set and forget forum after 6th january?
I am on holidays. I am not trading but I'm available to answer questions when I get some decent DSL connection
Happy new year!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,087
  • Dec 31, 2014 2:49am Dec 31, 2014 2:49am
Quoting Mightyzoner
Also from above question. Where is price in relation to your "curve" TF? Should you even be thinking of shorts?
Without a top down multiple timeframe analysis we can't say if we are allowed to go shorts or not.

Multiple timeframe analysis is necessary to calcualte the curve and what your entry TF and direction will be. You posted some charts with no timeframe information, no multiple timeframe analysis, and trendlines and zones were not correctly drawn, so I can't say anything about it sorry.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,088
  • Dec 31, 2014 2:50am Dec 31, 2014 2:50am
Quoting Kelkh
Alfonso, do you mean a trend on a big picture or on an exucution timeframe when you are talking about momentum trade? Do we need to have trend on both timeframe according to your rules?
Rules are very clear about it on post #1, you must also watch the videos about trend, trendlines and how to draw zones, as well as the realignment video. All that is answered in a LOT of detail in those videos and the rules.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,089
  • Dec 31, 2014 2:55am Dec 31, 2014 2:55am
Quoting cnnewt61
HIGHER TF I only gave one chart, does't mean I don't know to check the higher TF. But when you are not a newbie, you would know what a higher TF happened when you just see the lower TF. and also some said trendline broke. no shorting. It's no meaning when you consider too much. so I just wanna know, by your instinct, which zone is better for shorting. and why {image}
You can see if a new zone has been created in a bigger TF as you correctly stated in your post, but we want to do the correct multiple timeframe analysis, draw the correect trendlines and zones and then take a decision, those are the rules. A single chart will not give that information I'm afraid and that's why multiple timeframe analysis done in a methodical and consistent way helps a lot and it's needed.

You can do it the way you want if that works for you, but here in the thread the idea is to follow certain rules and ways of doing top down analysis, otherwise I can't help to guide you or anybody through the rules sorry.

Which zone is better for shorting by my instinct? None my friend, none! I don't follow my instinct for trading, I follow my rules. My instinct would have blown up 10 accounts long time ago. I follow the rules and that's all, I leave instinct for my "animal" side where my life/money is not in danger

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,090
  • Dec 31, 2014 2:56am Dec 31, 2014 2:56am
Quoting jhehe
{quote} I would go with the peak at Sept 9th as I do not know what the price range is. This is something I picked up from Sam Seiden as the origin starts here.
Going for one peak or another would need rules, not just instinct as mentioned in a previous post. We must follow rules and leave the "I think or I would go for...", that will cause a lot of problems.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,091
  • Dec 31, 2014 12:28pm Dec 31, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Going for one peak or another would need rules, not just instinct as mentioned in a previous post. We must follow rules and leave the "I think or I would go for...", that will cause a lot of problems. Cheers, Alfonso
That is true, apologies. Still reading everything you wrote. This was just something I heard from Sam about finding the beginning of a move.
  • #5,092
  • Dec 31, 2014 11:22pm Dec 31, 2014 11:22pm
3:1 challenge?
Really?
Is it possible to do that 3x in a row?

Then stop trading for peanuts and start trading with a goal in mind.
Something like
"I want to make 60% on my acct. without risking more than 1%"
OR "I want to make 50% on my acct by the end of the month"
LOL

150tp/50sl $10k account equity:
Go!!

1st trade using 1% risk ($100) of my equity I win 3% ($300).
Lot size was $2 per pip.
What is my GOAL? (Hint" not to make 3%)

2nd trade using 1% ($100) of my equity and the Brokers/Other peoples Money "opm" ($300)
I win $1200.
Lot size was $8 per pip
What is my GOAL? (hint; Not to make 15%)

3rd trade using 1% ($100) of my equity and the opm gained over 2 trades of $300 and $1200 I win
$4500.
Lot size was $30 per pip.
Gains from "wins" were $300, $1200, and $4500.
Total gained was $6000 OR 60% increase in acct.
What was my GOAL?

Was it to win 3% 3 times for a total of $9%ish gain in my acct?
Was it to risk 1% on the next trade to make another 3% on the 2nd trade?
OR was it to make a 60% increase on my acct.?

Total risked @ any given time over the 3 trade sequence was $100 or 1%.
Even if I lost 10x in a row.....Yes 10 x in a row my acct draw down would be 10% compared to when I finally hit my goal of winning 3 in a row
for a total gain of 60%.

So,
Let me ask again.
What is your goal?
Can you win 3x in a row with 3:1 reward to risk?

If so my friends, you might just want to employ what I call
SPACE BALLS!!!


Thanks for all the free information on this site panoramia!!!!!
  • #5,093
  • Edited 9:39am Jan 2, 2015 9:15am | Edited 9:39am
Something to think about for the new year.

I am willing to risk 1% of my equity/margin side of my acct. to earn a 2-3% return.
Being this is true
Would I be willing to risk 1% of my own hard earned capital for a 15% gain?
If that seems like a no brainer, will I then be willing to risk 1% of my capital for a 60% gain on my acct.

Keep in mind that ALL wealthy people on this planet use OTHER PEOPLES MONEY to earn exponential amounts of $Cash$.
They borrow from banks, they entice investors, and they use LEVERAGE happily provided to us by brokers.

There are 2 sides of our acct.
MARGIN or equity side and the RISK side.
Until our target of X% gain is hit all monies earned shall stay on the risk side of the ledger to be used for exponential profits.
Once our goal or %Gain is reached it is moved to the margin side of our ledger and is never to be risked again.

The goal of EVERY trader is to trade at max lot size with as little risk as possible.
Be like a Millionaire and use OPM.
  • #5,094
  • Edited Jan 4, 2015 12:17am Jan 3, 2015 11:34pm | Edited Jan 4, 2015 12:17am
In the post above I forgot to add the original risk to the 3rd trade.
None or our original equity was at risk on that trade.

Scenario #2.
2:1 risk is 2%
50sl/100tp $10,000 acct.

Trade #1
Risk $200 to make $400.
Lot size was $4
Trade #2
Risk $200 to make $1200
Lot size was $12
Trade #3
Risk $0.0 to make $3200
Lot size was $32

400+1200+3200 = $4800
48% gain on acct.

I hope you "see" what I'm typing being that this thread is ALL ABOUT taking trades with 3:1 and 2:1 reward/risk ratio.

"As human beings most of us want instant gratification, and I'm afraid instant gratification doesn't work with trading, in fact it hardly works with anything!" Alfonso

"When we take profit on our first or second trades of a sequence and put it in our pockets we are focused on (instant gratification)." Me. )
  • #5,095
  • Jan 4, 2015 8:41am Jan 4, 2015 8:41am
Quoting Mightyzoner
3:1 challenge? Really? Is it possible to do that 3x in a row? Then stop trading for peanuts and start trading with a goal in mind. Something like "I want to make 60% on my acct. without risking more than 1%" OR "I want to make 50% on my acct by the end of the month" LOL 150tp/50sl $10k account equity: Go!! 1st trade using 1% risk ($100) of my equity I win 3% ($300). Lot size was $2 per pip. What is my GOAL? (Hint" not to make 3%) 2nd trade using 1% ($100) of my equity and the Brokers/Other peoples Money "opm" ($300) I win $1200. Lot size was $8...
A similar thought process led me to post the attached over on the Rags to Riches thread:-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Rags to Riches.png Size: 166 KB
  • #5,096
  • Jan 4, 2015 4:56pm Jan 4, 2015 4:56pm
Quoting JackAntigua
{quote} A similar thought process led me to post the attached over on the Rags to Riches thread:- {image}
What is the point of "booking" some profits?
What detrimental psychology is involved in doing so?
What was the goal again!?!

Is it to MINimize our gains while MAXimizing our losses? I think NOT.

We MUST get to the point that
"OUR losses will cause us great laughter" MightyOne

It is when we finally realize that our losses will be 1% OR 0.5% and our "WINS" will be a 60, 80, or 100% account increase that this will become our truth.

"Our sin is that we think about money more than we think about trading". M.O.

When we send out scared money, say $1, it will not return with $5.

"Fear is the mind killer" -Dune
  • #5,097
  • Jan 4, 2015 5:11pm Jan 4, 2015 5:11pm
"The problem is how to get 16 wins in a row"....Above post

Combine the below thought process with this threads quality trading information and your in business.
3/2009
"MightyOne" wrote:
Prices rise and fall by HUNDREDS of pips every day and some how most
every one cannot figure out how to make even 1% per day.
I just dont get it, I really don't http://insanityindustries.net/images...e_confused.gif
So I am going to lay out the frame work for profiting in a such a way
that can be accomplished by anyone:

1. Which way is price likely to move in the long term. (higher time frame trend)

2. How small can I make my stops (you would be surprised)

3. Risking 1% per trade/chart enter with the momentum of the small time frame. (daily chart here)

4. Exit all when you feel that price is likely to reverse and add that profit to your SL amount less commission.

EXAMPLE: 50 pips = 1%: You make 100 pips on a short and exit as the market starts to reverse. The next trade you risk your initial 50 + the 100 gained from shorting less 1 pip for commission to re enter.

5. Price starts heading in the long term direction and again you get an entry to short on your small TF. You short with your 150 pip stop and the market starts stalling at +70 so you exit (you are at +170).

Price retraces 200 pips and you believe price is again heading south so you short again on your small TF with a 220 pip stop. (Option like staying power!!!)

7. YOU CAN ONLY EXIT WHILE IN PROFIT OR GET STOPPED OUT!

Price retraces 80 pips and then turns around and plummets 400 pips.

What time frame are you trading? What does that chart look like?
How many bars has it been since you first started shorting?

Trade NO MORE THAN 2 bars of any time frame!

8. You either reach your goal and make 26, 52, or 80%+ on your account or you lose 1%.

By reinvesting profit, having an unwillingness to let price trade to your stop while you are/were in profit at some point, and by sticking to a goal knowing that PRICE DOES MOVE HUNDREDS OF PIPS EVERY DAY (just about) then you will reach the goals you set out to attain and your losses
will cause you great laughter.


"MORE RISK IS MORE RISK
MORE PROFIT IS MORE PROFIT
$100 gained risking nothing is worth more than $100 gained risking every thing!
Some times less is more"... M.O.

Re-investing opm in our STOPLOSS is our SHIELD
Re-investing opm in our LOTSIZE is our SWORD!!!!
  • #5,098
  • Jan 6, 2015 10:06am Jan 6, 2015 10:06am
Dear fellow trader,

Happy new year 2015 to all of you. A new year has started, what will it have in store for us? Hopefully many good things, moreover if we work hard and focus on our goals and passions, we must live for and by our passions.

I wanted to share the supply and demand weekly analysis of the year with you. This is the kind of analysis that will be shared at www.set-and-forget.com supply and demand community every week, together with a second video for cross pairs, about 20 or more pairs are covered every week, then we update and plan trades at the community. I sent this message yesterday to all those that subscribed to the webinars but I had no time to post it over here since I still am on holidays.

Note: the analysis talks about breakout trades and probably WoW trades, they are new setups that were introduced last year but haven't been covered yet in the public webinars. Both are high probability setups based on supply and demand imbalances

I also talk about the losses I've had, they are also shared in the community, losses are part of the game. I have many more winners than losses so the balance is on my side. I'm holding a few more trades than the ones in the weekly analysis, many on US cross pairs and exotics.

Weekly analysis is a bigger picture trading analysis, but it can be used to drill your entries down to H4 and lower timeframes. My entry timeframe is mostly the D1 chart.

  1. Dollar index. Very bullish, broke MN and WK SZ, created a WK PCP and broke higher
  2. S&P500. Strong uptrend, the BO long of the highest highs in history didn't work again, they are lower odds. Some counter-trend shorts could work until price finds good demand lower
  3. NIKKEI Index. Monthly all time high SZ is in control, D1 WoW short has played out and work and some counter-trend shorts could work, same with other Yen pairs
  4. EURO: dropping again, broke lower than previous D1 DZ and could be dropping further since no fresh or original MN demand demand lower. US Index doing the exact opposing thing.
  5. POUND: Bigger picture is down, similar breakout short to EURUSD, short bias.
  6. YEN: Nikkei is reacting to MN SZ, some counter-trend could happen on yen pairs. USD/JPY is behaving a bit different and it could rally higher. I am short now on USD/JPY
  7. AUSSIE: AUD/USD broke even lower bias is short at the valid levels. Similar on most AUSSIE pairs
  8. CAD: USDCAD broke higher helped by the dollar strength. Long bias, still holding the long
  9. The New Zealand Kiwi. NZDUSD has still a tricky situation, WK SZ holding, bias is shorts, odds is shorts. My H4 breakout short hit its take profit

This is the 20 minutes Weekly analysis for this week

Inserted Video


I am on quite a few trades on US and GBP pairs, mostly longs on US pairs, holding them on USD/SEK, USD/SGD, USD/MXN, USD/ZAR, USD/CZK, USD/JPY, and a bunch more.

I will try to get organized and send each week a quick analysis on 4 pairs each week, those in the mailing list will receive that analysis. I'm working on a blog, those analysis will be posted there in the future as well as here.

Happy New Year 2015!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,099
  • Jan 6, 2015 4:01pm Jan 6, 2015 4:01pm
Thanks you Alfonso, and good new year 2015. Impatient with the new entries
Newbie trader
  • #5,100
  • Jan 7, 2015 3:59am Jan 7, 2015 3:59am
Quoting Mightyzoner
{quote} What is the point of "booking" some profits? What detrimental psychology is involved in doing so? What was the goal again!?! Is it to MINimize our gains while MAXimizing our losses? I think NOT. We MUST get to the point that "OUR losses will cause us great laughter" MightyOne It is when we finally realize that our losses will be 1% OR 0.5% and our "WINS" will be a 60, 80, or 100% account increase that this will become our truth. "Our sin is that we think about money more than we think about trading". M.O. When we send out scared money, say...
That is an interesting way of thinking about things, I'd never thought about it like that before.

What I'm talking about though is increasing your account by 5368% after 10 consecutive wins. Let's be clear though, I'm not advovating this at all as a main trading account, this is a "fun" account to try to achieve the seemingly impossible.

You may say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one.
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