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- #16,862
- Jan 1, 2015 6:25am Jan 1, 2015 6:25am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} By the separate post I would like to thank you, Markus, for your post. D.P.
Hi D.P.,
I hope, that the Russian people know, that they have a lot of supporters here in Germany, too.
- #16,865
- Jan 1, 2015 6:45am Jan 1, 2015 6:45am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: turning probability into profit | 1,550 Posts
{quote} Hi D.P., I hope, that the Russian people know, that they have a lot of supporters here in Germany, too.
All over the history Russians have not been attacking any other countries ever and will not do (even if there are the contra opinions), but national interests will be being protected for any costs.
Also I pray for the European people in order for them to see the whole picture.
Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
- #16,866
- Jan 1, 2015 6:53am Jan 1, 2015 6:53am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
someone asked me regarding the bullish sentiment towards EU of most retail traders right now, and if that would be not alone a bearish contrarian signal (look at all available broker informations regarding positioning right now - it seems that at least 60-70% of all retail traders are long now)
most of the time, this can be used as contrarian signal. But history shows, that the retail crowd is very often spot on at the major turning points. EWI has some analysis about that, when I remember correctly. Have to dig for it.
The sad thing is, that even when the majority of the retail traders is spot on at the major turning points, they will close their positions way too early and go against the new trend way too early
Can we drop from here to far more deeper levels without seeing a higher retracement beforehand? I mean we have dropped nearly 2000 pips already.....
Answer is: go back to 2009/2010, and watch the shitty retracement in the middle of the move, getting a lot of traders with pants down, when it dropped further 2000 pips
most of the time, this can be used as contrarian signal. But history shows, that the retail crowd is very often spot on at the major turning points. EWI has some analysis about that, when I remember correctly. Have to dig for it.
The sad thing is, that even when the majority of the retail traders is spot on at the major turning points, they will close their positions way too early and go against the new trend way too early
Can we drop from here to far more deeper levels without seeing a higher retracement beforehand? I mean we have dropped nearly 2000 pips already.....
Answer is: go back to 2009/2010, and watch the shitty retracement in the middle of the move, getting a lot of traders with pants down, when it dropped further 2000 pips
Gooooooooooood morning Clubbers!!!!!!!! Shake the hangover away - time to work{image} As Greek Default Risk Soars To 66%, Morgan Stanley Warns ECB May Be Unable To Launch QE
So true! Need to come back to trading station, just that last week went so, so quick!
Happy New Year everyone! May 2015 bring all the very best for all of us with peace, wealth, prosperity and lots of joys of life.
- #16,874
- Jan 1, 2015 10:15am Jan 1, 2015 10:15am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 12,211 Posts
{quote} OK Jan, if eurusd will not reach 1.35 next year I owe you a bottle of good Romanian wine, deal? Edit on January 1st: I lower my offer at 1.28.
Hm i havent bet for long time hehe, to be honest last time when two fx traders offered me bets on two different pairs and targets, they both loosed, and they were glad i didnt shake on it, so ill do same on your offer, just to spare you hassle with shipment in case if you loose But on serious note, yes i really dont think we will see 1.35 next year at all. It will start with QE, that will dumper down EUR, and by 22nd i dont think at all EU can rally more than 500 pips, there could be a lot of QE priced in already, and possibly giving up move after initial shorts are priced in, lets say similar scenario to FED QE 1 and 2, but lets say we are somewhere at 1.200-1.1700ish area in February or March, then its only 2 months until ball is passed to FED. Can EU go from bellow 2000 to 3000+ in 2 months? In my view no way. In June-Jully FED will have to get proper stance of their rate hike intentions, they can do three things, one is stall further, which would cause EU to rally, few hundred pips possible, but i dont think anything above 2500 would happen. Other is rate hike, which is clear that it would send EU down very fast. If they completly fall back, say no hikes, EU could obviously go 3500 and more in certain time as dollar would really dump, but is that really possible to happen? Objectivly thinking over whole situation i have written pros and cons for FED to hike or not to hike, and in my view chances for no hike are much lower. Just by simply looking at all reasons in first place considering they started to talk about hiking several months ago, if they really were only faking markets, it had to be reason for so, and yes you can find quite plenty reasons that this could be possible, but in the end you can negate whole pro -no-hike argument with simply that if they dont hike, markets wouldnt just give all back, they would even start taking much more as they would start pricing in FED cannot hike rates, which would have severe USD and USA financial markets implications.And now lets throw in what many people consider fact that FED cannot hike is reasons of what many non-main stream economics were proping up that simply USA would go bankrupt if FED starts hiking and all markets would collapse. That is rethoric where you look on markets and power of CB with one eye blind. There have been people in past who have underestimated power of ECB and look how it turned out. If FED does hike they can go QE heavy and they can basically play both sides. Hiking would be extremelly expensive for financial markets and FED to keep them proped up but the simple fact is : they can do it. It might costs trillions a year, but its doable. So if rate hiking has some bigger implications and scenario that FED is playing, they can do it if they are willing to do so. And now if we consider rate hiking as policy to be taken, can EU rally 1000s of pips meanwhile this policy is shaping up? Answer is no unless something really significant would be taking in place for EUR currency in terms of policy. Well thats my view.
With that said and funadamental view i see no reason for EU to go 3000+ high next year, not even 2800 most likely.
EDIT: I forgot to ask, but what are your reasons, why you see EU going to 1.35?
