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As simple as possible: 00 level trading

  • #25,221
  • Dec 31, 2014 10:35am Dec 31, 2014 10:35am
Happy New Year!

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Wish you guys all the best for 2015! Stay green always.

Jibala
PDF & BCC (Patience Discipline Focus & Belief Confidence Consistency)
  • #25,222
  • Dec 31, 2014 4:40pm Dec 31, 2014 4:40pm

Happy New Year to All


Stay GREEN my friends.

Cigarguy
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Keep It Simple
  • #25,223
  • Dec 31, 2014 11:07pm Dec 31, 2014 11:07pm
reply to post 25215 ,,Thank you Udine , great fortune and good health for 2105
Whats That? you're trading What?
  • #25,224
  • Edited 4:07am Jan 1, 2015 2:42am | Edited 4:07am
Hi all! You' ve not seen a post of me earlier in the thread but I follow this thread and system and would like to thank you all for your daily contributions. It makes it very worthwhile to trade the system and to follow this thread, thank you!

Wish you all a very good 2015 with a lot of green pips!
  • #25,225
  • Jan 1, 2015 3:36am Jan 1, 2015 3:36am
HI ALL,

I WISH YOU ALL HEALTH, WEALTH, HAPPINESS FOR 2015 !!

AND PLEASE SHARE WITH YOUR LOVED ONES AND THE ONES IN NEED..

ENJOY TRADING, ENJOY LIFE

UDINE
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #25,226
  • Edited 6:51am Jan 1, 2015 6:40am | Edited 6:51am
Hi Udine

Thanks for the reply earlier to my post, Happy New year to you and everyone here !

I sometimes trade in a similar way and like you I've been doing this for a while, so any comments I post, they are meant for two reasons…
1) To contribute to your excellent thread which may benefit others
2) I might learn something from you and others I had not considered

Either way it’s a win/win scenario

Ok so this brings me onto the R:R problems I’m having and regardless what’s been discussed before, these are my figures ……… (As the old saying goes, “never trust another man’s wiring”…)

Making a few assumptions so we have some figures to work to, let’s say that the risk per trade is 2% and you’re trading 2 pairs once an hour, for 8 hours, for a total of 16 trades in a day. (The figures don’t make allowances for commissions or fees etc and assume that 16 entries were possible and there was no trailing or scaling in and out etc, just plain and simple Stop or Target hit)

The Maths is as follows, if you have a R:R of 0.50 (which is what is suggested and there’s nothing wrong with that ) then you have to win 66.6% of the time for Break even, so basically you have to be pretty good. (Albeit a 5 pip target has a high probability of being hit)

However if you don’t win 66.6% of the time and say you only win 50% (a more likely probability) of the time then your now at -8% for the day

So leaving the win rate at say 50% and going for a R:R of 1 you would end with a Breakeven day, you then only have to make small adjustments to the R:R to make yourself profitable whilst not having to be that great at winning, an example might be….. Increase your R:R to 1.10 and your now up for the day by 1.6% (so your stop is still 10 and your target is 11), increase that target to 15 giving you now a R:R of 1.50 and now you have made +8% profit for the day.

If on some days you did increase your win rate back to say the original figure of 66.6% whilst maintaining R1.50 then your profit for the day would be a whopping +21.33%

I realise there are limitless permutations with all this and everything I’ve said above is theoretical, but I look forward to hearing what anyone thinks about the subject

Thanks
  • #25,227
  • Jan 1, 2015 7:26am Jan 1, 2015 7:26am
Quoting ab1
Hi Udine Thanks for the reply earlier to my post, Happy New year to you and everyone here ! I sometimes trade in a similar way and like you I've been doing this for a while, so any comments I post, they are meant for two reasons… 1) To contribute to your excellent thread which may benefit others 2) I might learn something from you and others I had not considered Either way it’s a win/win scenario Ok so this brings me onto the R:R problems I’m having and regardless what’s been discussed before, these are my figures ……… (As the old saying goes, “never...

ab1,

adjust the TP levels to your liking and keep us posted about the results..

"However if you don’t win 66.6% of the time and say you only win 50% (a more likely probability) " = have you traded the strategy at all??

if so, show the charts of your trades, that confirm your "probability"..

otherwise, start to trade the strategy and see for yourself the results and show us..

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #25,228
  • Jan 1, 2015 7:40am Jan 1, 2015 7:40am
Quoting Udine
{quote} ab1, adjust the TP levels to your liking and keep us posted about the results.. "However if you don’t win 66.6% of the time and say you only win 50% (a more likely probability) " = have you traded the strategy at all?? if so, show the charts of your trades, that confirm your "probability".. otherwise, start to trade the strategy and see for yourself the results and show us.. Udine
Hi Udine

Valid points....... noted !

Will keep you posted if any of my modifications make things better or worse

Can I just ask if you trade this 100% mechanical or does your success rely on making judgements based on your experience of trading

Thanks
  • #25,229
  • Jan 1, 2015 7:55am Jan 1, 2015 7:55am
Quoting ab1
{quote} Hi Udine Valid points....... noted ! Will keep you posted if any of my modifications make things better or worse Can I just ask if you trade this 100% mechanical or does your success rely on making judgements based on your experience of trading Thanks

"Can I just ask if you trade this 100% mechanical or does your success rely on making judgements based on your experience of trading"

this proves that you have not read the thread at all..

start reading and you will find your answer ..

enjoy the read

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #25,230
  • Jan 1, 2015 8:11am Jan 1, 2015 8:11am
Quoting JibalaPasan
{quote} The list of pairs I am watching. {image} On the other hand, what I earlier wrote, I still have the big advantage of a mentor / teacher (beside master Udine) who provides me extra tools I'm free to use (to watch) since I am very new to that business. Jibala
Hi there,

Hope you will be fine over there.
Can you provide me the indicator for ADR and ATR , as shown in image.
thanks a lot
  • #25,231
  • Jan 1, 2015 8:13am Jan 1, 2015 8:13am
Quoting Udine
{quote} "Can I just ask if you trade this 100% mechanical or does your success rely on making judgements based on your experience of trading" this proves that you have not read the thread at all.. start reading and you will find your answer .. enjoy the read Udine
Udine

I have read a lot of the thread......... my original question was about R:R, but my questions were disregarded on the basis that it had all been discussed before, so I take it then its not up for discussion, which is fair enough

thanks
  • #25,232
  • Jan 1, 2015 8:48am Jan 1, 2015 8:48am
Quoting Udine
need more proof ??? another one.. {image}
Hi Udine, Happy new year!
What if the market is ranging between 2 00 levels - i,e, when it cross the 00 level, all rules matched, but it retraces and go against my order which turn into a Stoploss ( Touch, retrace and stop out)

This can happen repeatedly - such as below highlighted bars.

Do you have any clue to handle this ?
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  • #25,233
  • Jan 1, 2015 9:07am Jan 1, 2015 9:07am
Anyone who has analyzed any amount of data over any period of time for a given set of currency pairs or just one pair would have come to the following conclusions.

1. Risk:Reward over all time cannot be optimized (there is no fixed TP and SL pip amounts that will allow for maximum gain over all time)

So what about over a shorter TF say like 1 month?

You will find convincing evidence that a TP and SL can be optimized over any given period of time BUT only in the past..read as hindsight simply because of the markets dynamically changing nature. You will have no idea as to what TP and SL will give you the best results "forward tested live"!

It would be great if you could find the "perfect pairing of TP and SL" but what works perfect 1 month will break you the very next and if not then soon enough it will occur!

2. A 5 pip TP does rely on a degree of trading accuracy when considering a 10 pip SL however what should be found is this 10 pip SL allows for a very reasonable degree of breathing space in the market.

In short a SL = 10 pips works in this strategy.

If I may draw on some of my trades or indeed many other trade examples throughout this thread many times a DD = 5-6 pips occurs so the SL = 10 pips is an acceptable buffer.

The temptation then is to increase the SL further beyond the 10 pips but this is lending towards a trade entry that is perhaps too inaccurate and not good at all if a few SL's get hit in a row.

The idea of trading this 00 method (which has been said numerous times) is that initially a trader should shoot for 2 TP's only and that's it for the day.

Once the strike rate becomes very good then build up to say 3 or more trades to TP per day (this is purely optional and really is not necessary to build your account @ 2% per day compounded over a longer term period).

No-one said that you need too or would want to trade 2 trades per hour over 8 hours per day (this is especially dangerous for any "new" trader doing it live).

Best advise is to start off choosing from your allowable trading window just 2 of the highest probability trades you can find....your account will still build very nicely indeed.

Good trading,

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #25,234
  • Jan 1, 2015 9:19am Jan 1, 2015 9:19am
A good 2015 for all.

Jvbs
Work very hard until you get there (excuse my english)
  • #25,235
  • Jan 1, 2015 9:21am Jan 1, 2015 9:21am
Quoting jvbs
A good 2015 for all. Jvbs
Same to you and all traders...........

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #25,236
  • Jan 1, 2015 10:58am Jan 1, 2015 10:58am
Quoting Udine
HI ALL, I WISH YOU ALL HEALTH, WEALTH, HAPPINESS FOR 2015 !! AND PLEASE SHARE WITH YOUR LOVED ONES AND THE ONES IN NEED.. ENJOY TRADING, ENJOY LIFE UDINE
Thanks Udine. Wish you and all members at FF same.
I'm at page 110. Will read whole thread in next few days.

I love the method for 2 main features:
1. A distinct edge.
2. The very short time trader's money remains in market.
  • #25,237
  • Edited 12:36pm Jan 1, 2015 12:26pm | Edited 12:36pm
Quoting Masterrmind
Anyone who has analyzed any amount of data over any period of time for a given set of currency pairs or just one pair would have come to the following conclusions. 1. Risk:Reward over all time cannot be optimized (there is no fixed TP and SL pip amounts that will allow for maximum gain over all time) So what about over a shorter TF say like 1 month? You will find convincing evidence that a TP and SL can be optimized over any given period of time BUT only in the past..read as hindsight simply because of the markets dynamically changing nature. You...
Hi Mastermind

Interesting comments, appreciate the constructive feedback and open discussion. Too many threads on here (Forex Factory) edge towards arrogance, if only trading was as simple !

"No-one said that you need too or would want to trade 2 trades per hour over 8 hours per day (this is especially dangerous for any "new" trader doing it live)"

Yep Depends sometimes, you have to "make hay while the sun shines" to counter act the bad days, there's more than one way.....

Thanks
  • #25,238
  • Jan 1, 2015 1:04pm Jan 1, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting ab1
{quote} Udine I have read a lot of the thread......... my original question was about R:R, but my questions were disregarded on the basis that it had all been discussed before, so I take it then its not up for discussion, which is fair enough thanks
Understand your point about the RR and not wanting to get too much involved and keeping it simple, Udine has a point about changing the settings and keeping track, I run the WUKKAR EA and have changed the TP setting only to find the market turned and hit the BE level more times than enough, but in most cases the original 5pips would have been earned if the setting were left alone
The EA is an excellent addition, hats off and thanks to those who made it available, the BE function is invaluable, when you see it kick in you have a sense of relief that a +ve result is achieved.
What is more to the point and one that can fault any RR is taking the positions correctly, get this wrong and all fails, seeing and getting in early is the key, I made that mistake, taken a late trade when I should have stayed clear, however it did come around for a profit.
I use the system how I think it's to be used, I've read many posts and put it togeather as I see it, would'nt dare ask the question LOL but think I have it, the only confusion is the addition of the 4hr trend, in the original, the 1hr and the daily had to match and the price would be below or above the open, does the addition of the 4hr give rise to trading a counter trend when the 1hr and 4hr match, regardless the daily, please anyone dont't reply with read the thread, if you can answer then a simple one will do.
Since using the system on a live small scale my result is 12:1 so with a little common sense there is no reason why it cannot continue, I can only give thanks to the "jigsaw mastery" on this one and may it long continue, all the best for the comming year to all.
P
  • #25,239
  • Jan 1, 2015 6:56pm Jan 1, 2015 6:56pm
Quoting ab1
{quote} Hi Mastermind Interesting comments, appreciate the constructive feedback and open discussion. Too many threads on here (Forex Factory) edge towards arrogance, if only trading was as simple ! "No-one said that you need too or would want to trade 2 trades per hour over 8 hours per day (this is especially dangerous for any "new" trader doing it live)" Yep Depends sometimes, you have to "make hay while the sun shines" to counter act the bad days, there's more than one way..... Thanks
Once your strike rate and confidence is very high then as I said additional trades per day can be added (optional).

The other interesting concern is whether or not to allow an "energetic" trade to continue for more pips but this becomes a personal adaptation however what you do in your own backyard is really your own business.

Udine has always pointed out though that posted trades to this thread should greatly resemble the 00 method and I think that makes perfect sense.

I have posted a few longer TP trades though which stem heavily from chart analysis and Price action analysis, harmonics etc etc. But I limit this a lot because it does not form part of this 00 method.

This method goes for a TP = 5 pips by risking a 10 pip SL...simple as that!

It has worked well for me and many others but with any type of trading one must do their own chart analysis and choose only the higher probability trades.

If you keep to a TP=5pips and a SL=10pips............ then you will do fine.

There is no real need to fix something that isn't broken.

Good trading,

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #25,240
  • Jan 1, 2015 7:54pm Jan 1, 2015 7:54pm
MM, nicely put , Trusting Udine ,You and all others who make the effort to sucseed have a very Prosperous 2015 Cheers Qed
Whats That? you're trading What?
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