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Martingaling - Looks so good until the inevitable

  • #381
  • Dec 29, 2014 11:32pm Dec 29, 2014 11:32pm
wow I feel so sorry for those who are following this "Magix" clown. Fools following the fool.
"Nature's law" is called "Reason". When perfectly understood by human it is
  • #382
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:51am Dec 30, 2014 6:51am
Quoting Caesar95
wow I feel so sorry for those who are following this "Magix" clown. Fools following the fool.
Awwwwwwwww....does this mean, we can't be friends?



Not quite sure what your issue is, but perhaps you'd care to elaborate?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #383
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:58am Dec 30, 2014 6:58am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Awwwwwwwww....does this mean, we can't be friends? Not quite sure what your issue is, but perhaps you'd care to elaborate?
trading from "singapore"
wasn´t kuat or another muppet also from singapore?

1 + 1 =

bingo #

just do it
  • #384
  • Dec 30, 2014 8:43am Dec 30, 2014 8:43am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Quite the contrary, Chicks... I just look at things a lot differently. Oversold in a long cycle and overbought in a short cycle, is more of what I look for in Bounce Plays. Guessing absolutes on reversals can be a very expensive game a provide a lot of missed opportunities.
I have found it very interesting that you have decided to use martingale with what you call "cat bounce". I for one stay away from those cat bounces, as from my P.O.V. It is a coin toss. Although the price does usually bounce off previous accumulation levels, the reality is the fundamental confirmation of a reversal is once the trending candles are engulfed. Simply taking the opposing trade, to me, isn't accurate enough to use with martingale + moderate lot sizing. Also if you play the cat bounce, on the higher tf, with pretty strick SL management I am pretty sure you can make it work, as the reversal WILL EVENTUALLY come, and if you are using martingale you would of course recover your losses much quicker.
  • #385
  • Dec 30, 2014 10:08am Dec 30, 2014 10:08am
Quoting KmBioDmoneda
{quote} I have found it very interesting that you have decided to use martingale with what you call "cat bounce". I for one stay away from those cat bounces, as from my P.O.V. It is a coin toss. Although the price does usually bounce off previous accumulation levels, the reality is the fundamental confirmation of a reversal is once the trending candles are engulfed. Simply taking the opposing trade, to me, isn't accurate enough to use with martingale + moderate lot sizing. Also if you play the cat bounce, on the higher tf, with pretty strick SL...

Interesting perspective, although quite limited by basic ignorance.

This not meant as an insult, but more to say that because you don't actually know the logic of the trader, commenting on the logic by way of just it's name, "Dead Cat Bounce", is of little value.

Take a look at Chicky's idea:
Quoting Chicky
If you cannot find something that happens once in at least 4 times, forget about the martingale.
And then read back to what he has actually stated about when and where he would have taken positions...in actuality, he never really took positions where he wanted, bases his trade logic on Random Points on the chart where he claims:

Quoting Chicky
To me, PPZs are the strongest levels for a bounce play.
PPZ? <- Yeah, no idea WTF he is talking about here, but like most of Chick's posts, he is simply blowing bubbles in spit in relation to market. In any case, his logic is not much different than a lot of Martingale strategies. A lot of these strategies are traded under broken clock logic, in that a broken clock will be correct 2x per day, given the right amount of time, levels and positions, there is bound to eventually be a correct "Guess", in there somewhere to bring price back to a point of prosperity.

Now, I questioned Chicklets on his positions, as he was trading AGAINST the major trend, and picking random points of which he tries to justify off of a weekly chart that stems back over 2 years, to be relevant, vs just trading with the trend for safety...

As it turns out, in effect, and currently, we are both correct, only difference being is that even with Chicksters analysis, his piss poor trading practices will see that his net gains are barely above what his net losses are.

ANYWAYS...Enough about ol' Chickpea...

My idea is that in order for any trade system to be effective, it is required to:
1. Define the trend.
2. Define the trigger.
3. Have an idea of what should be considered a profitable level.
4. Needs to know when to cut losses in the event of a trend change.

After these, it is just a matter of an effective application of a martingale strategy and reliable enough criteria in said trade system.

In choppy markets, Grid trading EAs as well as Martingales do seemingly very well. When they go into trend, they all shit the proverbial sheets and we see the DEATH trades or accumulation of positions to which there is no profitable escape. There are several threads and systems that have proven this very thing and much the reason that there are so many negative opinions of these type systems.

So....

In my time of playing with Grids, Martingales and other trade-able systems, I have tried to pool all of the criteria that I see making an effective Martingale and have applied them progressively as I have learned to code their specificity into the trade logic of the EA's.

Have I achieved perfection?

At this point, I would say, No...but what I have been able to achieve is a base reliable system that is trend dependent that allows for Dynamic ranges of trades and will exit at a loss if inside of the dynamic range, profit no longer seems plausible.

These 3 that have been posted are very similar in logic for trading, and even similar in exit strategies only differing slightly on the Dynamic Range of Play and application of trend.

RIV1, applies a trend based trigger and will counter with a "Trigger on Trend", using a larger spaced grid allowing for more range prior to cost averaging.
DEAD CAT SCALP, applies a trend based trigger for a smaller range based on the first signs of an immediate trend change and exit on confirmation, cost averaging through specific criteria allowed in a tighter range using a "Trigger on Trend", methodology.
DEAD CAT on FIRE, watches for a trend change and allows cost averaging on the same "Trigger on Trend", methodology prior to waiting for major trend changes.

When we are applying any strategy as applicable to the trend, we have to definitely take account the question, What if the Trend Changes?

In these 3, their dynamic ranges are seemingly enough to work with basic market concepts to be fairly effective.

Now, is this the only way to apply a Martingale effectively?
Dunno...but like yourself, I am taking part in a thread that waits for others to post their ideas as are applicable, some that aren't and from here, I can either choose to apply and adapt with these by way of coding, or can simply disregard them as an Amateur application of methodology.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #386
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:00pm Dec 30, 2014 6:00pm
Quoting Caesar95
wow I feel so sorry for those who are following this "Magix" clown. Fools following the fool.
Majix is not a clown only that he is so fascinated by his own method that he does not want to consider anything else. For example, he does not want to consider that a bounce always occurs in the opposite direction and that there are thousand ways to trade this market. He always helps people in going from somewhere to nowhere. If you don't know where are you going, will end-up somewhere else. The only thing that prevails in this market is logic and not any other shit, no matter whatever or whoever that could be, including myself and of course Majix.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #387
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:18pm Dec 30, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} 1.2120, few pips above would be better. I have entered at 1.2134 with sl at 1.2100. This move below 1.2152 is a market noise. In few hours it will be above 1.2180 and then will make an attempt at 1.2227. I have left my TP open..
TP still open and may add more longs if it goes above 1.2227
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #388
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:29pm Dec 30, 2014 6:29pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Majix is not a clown only that he is so fascinated by his own method that he does not want to consider anything else. For example, he does not want to consider that a bounce always occurs in the opposite direction and that there are thousand ways to trade this market. He always helps people in going from somewhere to nowhere. If you don't know where are you going, will end-up somewhere else. The only thing that prevails in this market is logic and not any other shit, no matter whatever or whoever that could be, including myself and of course...

*Magix

Chicky...Chickster...Chicklets!!!

The Chick-0-rama!!!

Seriously?

This is what you come up with?

Rather than actually having a case to state, you throw in with bias because I called you a moron whose trade analysis boils down to blowing spit bubbles?


Cummon dude, surely you can do a little better.

Your statement is little more than proof of my claims and a further indictment of FF's ranking system.

What your bruised ego won't allow you to see, is that I was actually supporting your statements on when I started to reply to you and was only when you went off into left field that you ended up feeling a little stinging from my replies.

I never claimed perfection...shit, if I had it, would I be bothered hanging out here?

The difference between the pair of us, is where you get off talking shit and blowing the proverbial bubbles in your spit, I have actually spent time learning to code and applying a vast array of information and context to automated trade strategies. Do I know more about this shit than you do? OF COURSE I DO!!!

But that too really means nothing.

The single EA that got me back into even playing with automated trading, took somebody else doubling a $10k account, (Live Money) for me to see the actual potential. After that, I have spent the time to try and apply a better set of criteria to not only improve on my manual trading, but to find a little extra in markets that I typically don't tend to...Writing this shit is still a hobby for me.

Seriously speaking....take any of the EAs that I have posted links to on myfxbook and appreciate their starting point, the strategy that they employ and the number of pairs they trade. Now compare that to your last year of trading a demo account with a $10k start and a $0 balance at the end, this trading EURUSD?

Pshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Now, we can carry on with the mudslinging, but where does that benefit either of us or anybody who would care to join into the conversation?

Alternately, you can pull your head out of your ass, dust yourself off and actually work towards a little something that may be viable to the topic of conversation.

Really chickpea...everybody already knows that I am an asshole...wasting another reply stating the same is a waste of infinite internet space.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #389
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:37pm Dec 30, 2014 6:37pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} *Magix Chicky...Chickster...Chicklets!!! The Chick-0-rama!!! Seriously? This is what you come up with? Rather than actually having a case to state, you throw in with bias because I called you a moron whose trade analysis boils down to blowing spit bubbles? Cummon dude, surely you can do a little better. Your statement is little more than proof of my claims and a further indictment of FF's ranking system. What your bruised ego won't allow you to see, is that I was actually supporting your statements on when I started to reply to you...
No. You are not an asshole. A lovely person.

ps. I did not read your complete post. It gives me headaches.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #390
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:41pm Dec 30, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting Razor_trader
What spurred such a topic? I have been following (not subscribing) to a signal provider through MQL5 for at least 4-5 months now after seeing some pretty phenomenal growth figures, coupled with very manageable draw down and who had managed to get a decent following to their services. What provoked my interest further was that it was a Martingale Strategy that had gone on for about 3 years and had over 5000 trades. Pretty good effort really. As you can see from the first screen shot, the equity curve is just beautiful, and it is not a testing, highly...
Razor, my friend, my brother. Please put me and Majix on your ignore list if you want to save this thread. Thanks in advance. ......................Later, remove me.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #391
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:50pm Dec 30, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Razor, my friend, my brother. Please put me and Majix on your ignore list if you want to save this thread. Thanks in advance. ......................Later, remove me.
*Magix

Chicklets....

Beings how you cannot keep to topic, have zero information to add and have absolutely no experience with Martingales, why not just conceit and spend time in the cesspool that is the EURUSD thread?

Seriously buddy, if you have no intent on being a part of a conversation, why not just bow out gracefully?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #392
  • Dec 30, 2014 6:55pm Dec 30, 2014 6:55pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} *Magix Chicklets.... Beings how you cannot keep to topic, have zero information to add and have absolutely no experience with Martingales, why not just conceit and spend time in the cesspool that is the EURUSD thread? Seriously buddy, if you have no intent on being a part of a conversation, why not just bow out gracefully?
Read the whole link of these posts. You started this meaningless arguments to a simple and logical thing. Nobody is interested in what you do or do not and how good or bad trader you are. You are literally insane. This is all I want to say in a simple way. Now end this thing. This is not your or my thread. Martingales never work. PERIOD. If you claim they work, wait until they stop working.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #393
  • Dec 30, 2014 7:00pm Dec 30, 2014 7:00pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Read the whole link of these posts. You started this meaningless arguments to a simple and logical thing. Nobody is interested in what you do or do not and how good or bad trader you are. You are literally insane. This is all I want to say in a simple way. Now end this thing. This is not your or my thread. Martingales never work. PERIOD. If you claim they work, wait until they stop working.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #394
  • Edited 8:10pm Dec 30, 2014 7:14pm | Edited 8:10pm
Look at Magix pretending he has never blown any of his accounts, but calling out others for doing so
2 separate demos with 90+% drawdown

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Of course you won't find that on his myfxbook page.
Nor will you find many of the other EA's this guy has used lol... where Vooodooo go? where did the contest ones go? where did STOMA go,? where did M1M5 go? where did OBOS go?

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Isn't it odd that a guy that likes to proclaim how great he is, keeps taking off these wonderful martingale type EA's he proclaims works so well


So some of these EA's have disappeared, but Google cache doesn't forget. Magix might have taken down them on his account but others have kept them up... I'm not suggesting all of these are his but many of the names are unusually familiar... and many of these often have very similar endings
Recognize any EA names?

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That is a lot of failed EA's but there is more, from the guys who like to take his work and not re label it - all these demo's
Recognize any EA names?

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But wait I'm not finished - more EA's that belong to Magix and his coder friends... does anyone think that maybe this guy might be full of it?
Getting the picture folks?
Recognize any EA names?

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Think I'm yet done?
All these have only been demo's, this is the guy who manages $3 million privately... does anyone believe this clown?
So there must be some evidence of real trading....


Oh yes this

Attached Image


Except anyone who actively trades a real account knows that unless the account was just created there will be a previous ledger balance. But there is none, meaning the account was set up that day for show.

Vindication for others? - perhaps

Of course we all noobs, completely ignorant, sad, pathetic plebs who can't possibly fathom the complexity of his mind and the endless possibilities.


Number one rule, if you are gonna lie, you need to be able to cover your tracks.
Isn't that right J?
  • #395
  • Dec 30, 2014 7:17pm Dec 30, 2014 7:17pm
Quoting Magix
{quote}In choppy markets, Grid trading EAs as well as Martingales do seemingly very well. When they go into trend, they all shit the proverbial sheets and we see the DEATH trades or accumulation of positions to which there is no profitable escape. There are several threads and systems that have proven this very thing and much the reason that there are so many negative opinions of these type systems.
Currency pairs are inevitably going to trend.
Have you considered looking at the deliberate construction of a choppy/mean-reverting basket of currency pairs?

k
  • #396
  • Dec 30, 2014 7:26pm Dec 30, 2014 7:26pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Currency pairs are inevitably going to trend. Have you considered looking at the deliberate construction of a choppy/mean-reverting basket of currency pairs? k
Ironically, not so much a basket but a combination of EAs that work under different premise that seemingly balance the load....

Admittedly, when comes to my efforts at basket trading EA code, I simply do not have the skills to create...

That being said, we do have a few fellas working on the basket traders with some varying degrees of success.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #397
  • Dec 30, 2014 7:30pm Dec 30, 2014 7:30pm
Quoting MCRotter
Look at Magix pretending he has never blown an account his accounts, but calling out others for doing so 2 separate demos with 90+% drawdown {image} Of course you won't find that on his myfxbook page. Nor will you find many of the other EA's this guy has used lol... where Vooodooo go? where did the contest ones go? where did STOMA go,? where did M1M5 go? where did OBOS go? {image} Isn't it odd that a guy that likes to proclaim how great he is, keeps taking off these wonderful martingale type EA's he proclaims works so well So some of these EA's...

As for you...

I got nothing.

I have accounts that range from Demo to micros and up to my current live trade account...you are free to speculate on anything and everything in between.

You don't think I have traded managed accounts, that's fine...

You don't believe that I have had the ability to adapt my code as I have gained the knowledge, this too is fine...

Come up with something that actually disproves anything I've said, and we can have a conversation.

You aren't even a barnacle on the ass of progress, son...

Let's see if you can dance.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #398
  • Dec 30, 2014 10:44pm Dec 30, 2014 10:44pm
summary:
we can play martingale with any system by simply increase our next trade size.
because
martingale is about increasing bet to cover previous p/l
and if equity is the problem, you can simply double your equity temporarily to tank the tank.

with this way you can keep that 1 disaster day or sudden consecutive loss at bay
and any of your system would looks better.
  • #399
  • Dec 31, 2014 10:01am Dec 31, 2014 10:01am
The use of a Martingale will ALWAYS be one of those subjects where the sides are divided. I refused to use a martingale in my strategies for years. But, I must admit within my own trial and errors I have come to use one recently. Will it be the tool to early retirement? Doubtful, but it is fun to watch.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ibth...versal/1071495

The martingale is a "Gambling" theory and recovery strategy. Nothing more. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marting...lity_theory%29

IMHO - Using a martingale in forex is no different than using it in a casino. But as we all know that in a casino, if you stay at the table long enough, the house ALWAYS wins.

It is much more than simply loading an EA and watching it grow into a huge account from little starting investment. Depending on the strategy, a martingale can blow an account over time. The trick is, to make money while you can and leave the table while you are ahead. Many short term trips to the table, if you will.

Plan on your starting balance to be one that can be funded easily in the event that an account blows and it probably will. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but the risk is always there.

In the meantime, withdraw your profits at a rate that you are comfortable with. An example would be when the account attains 25-50% growth. Withdraw that profit and use it for something constructive like paying off a bill, adding to your IRA or doubling up on your house payment.

As long as you withdraw an amount greater than your starting deposit, you can consider the martingale trades a success.

Just my two cents. Happy trading and Happy New Year!
  • #400
  • Dec 31, 2014 10:35am Dec 31, 2014 10:35am
Quoting ibthescottyb
The use of a Martingale will ALWAYS be one of those subjects where the sides are divided. I refused to use a martingale in my strategies for years. But, I must admit within my own trial and errors I have come to use one recently. Will it be the tool to early retirement? Doubtful, but it is fun to watch. http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ibth...versal/1071495
Great looking equity curve Scotty,

My only question stems from the TP point in your strategy. These are seemingly all over the place, just wondering how they are calculated in your system.

I work dynamically, but this isn't based on range of trade in hard numbers, more so just range of trade indicator/system based.

Because my systems don't have a set TP point, they just show up as closed trades, either net balance above or below zero.

Looks good, mango.

Nice to see somebody who has successfully employed a similar concept.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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