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  • #6,441
  • Dec 29, 2014 10:37am Dec 29, 2014 10:37am
"Rolling" the alerts on my platform ... QQQ from <100 to <105, SPY from <200 to <206... ....
Complacency... that is why on 5% correction VIX goes to $25... I am sure there is a bunch of ppl that have never ever seen any correction.

There is a bunch of articles on web with prognoses about SnP getting double digit yields again (or not).
VIX jumped a little today. Maybe some Iron Condors could make some damage on indices...

IWM is on interesting place, I am watching that also, to see if this is a decisive break above $120 AND triple top around that number.
If it really breaks nicely, than no doubt about the direction for the rest of the bunch, IMO.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,442
  • Dec 29, 2014 10:43am Dec 29, 2014 10:43am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I was looking for Jan put spreads, because I think it is more likely that it will go more down...
yeah, I never got in RSX put spreads, knew I wanted to be but couldn't get filled where I was looking. Missed the open today, getting up early on Monday always a problem. Swings in gold, but I think it should be looking for new lows in Jan. not looking for any big moves this week, thin volume, leaning bullish.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,443
  • Dec 29, 2014 11:02am Dec 29, 2014 11:02am
Quoting StrayDog
There is a bunch of articles on web with prognoses about SnP getting double digit yields again (or not). VIX jumped a little today. Maybe some Iron Condors could make some damage on indices... IWM is on interesting place, I am watching that also, to see if this is a decisive break above $120 AND triple top around that number. If it really breaks nicely, than no doubt about the direction for the rest of the bunch, IMO.
I've not had coffee yet, so I can't make any predictions. I am looking at Jan event horizon mostly - ECB then FOMC, Jan4 then Jan5. All about the CB's. I was looking to play a breakout on IWM, also. I'm not sure I want to do Jan1 verticals now, coffee will make me bolder. Sure, ^VIX up, SPY up, bonds up, commods down, check silver....natgas up a bit at least, cold weather finally hitting N. America, but I am overextended long natgas. I have been on the wrong side of trades lately, probably need more coffee....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,444
  • Dec 29, 2014 11:09am Dec 29, 2014 11:09am
Quoting The Fool
... cold weather finally hitting N. America....
We had +15 Celsius just a few days ago. Yesterday was snowing, finally... Today was -4 Celsius, I brought my daughter for her first sledging... I will go out with her again in a minute, cos nothing obvious comes to my mind about trading. Still thinking about some call spreads for QQQ, maybe Jan9 105.5/106 ?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,445
  • Dec 29, 2014 11:25am Dec 29, 2014 11:25am
trying to get filled on RSX Jan5 put vert, $14/$13.5, mid is $0.10, not filled at $0.15, trying to get filled at mid on those last week never worked....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,446
  • Dec 29, 2014 11:27am Dec 29, 2014 11:27am
Quoting StrayDog
. Yesterday was snowing, finally... Today was -4 Celsius, I brought my daughter for her first sledging
Nice. Hope it stays cold, winter is sposed to be cold....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,447
  • Dec 29, 2014 12:10pm Dec 29, 2014 12:10pm
trying to get in AAPL Jan call vert $116/$116.43 @ mid $0.17
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,448
  • Dec 29, 2014 1:17pm Dec 29, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to get in AAPL Jan call vert $116/$116.43 @ mid $0.17
filled about 1/2 of em, need a bullish close to the year, maybe new lows in oil (/CL < $53.50 now) will spook
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,449
  • Edited 3:04pm Dec 29, 2014 1:54pm | Edited 3:04pm
Quoting The Fool
Mexico etf will bounce into the new year if oil price gets back above $60/bbl
trying EWW $63/$64 call Feb vert for $0.20....nope...trying Feb $62/$63 for $0.25...nope.

s'aright, I don't mind being stingy
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,450
  • Dec 30, 2014 9:04am Dec 30, 2014 9:04am
[quote=The Fool;7965570]{quote} filled about 1/2 of em, need a bullish close to the year, maybe new lows in oil (/CL < $53.50 now) will spook[/quote]

Yeah, Oil and Greece. I just wonder, since both of them are old news, what effect that can produce. At least that is keeping VIX above $15, so I am thinking - IF indices will remain in sideways action, maybe we can do some bullish put spreads on VXX, some Iron Condors on indices? I will publish ideas here, if I can find some.

Maybe this... it is $0.20 credit now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VXX_bull-put-spread.png Size: 73 KB


But this narrow spreads - I think they are better as debit spreads. For credit spreads, IMO - better to be wider. At least $1 wide, but better wider...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VXX-2.png Size: 72 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,451
  • Edited Dec 31, 2014 1:29am Dec 30, 2014 9:30am | Edited Dec 31, 2014 1:29am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} trying EWW $63/$64 call Feb vert for $0.20....nope...trying Feb $62/$63 for $0.25...nope. s'aright, I don't mind being stingy
trying $62/63 again @ $0.21 mid...never filled...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,452
  • Dec 30, 2014 9:58am Dec 30, 2014 9:58am
I just did another Jan 34/43 short strangle on BBY, for $1.22 credit.

Reason: high IVR of 83, and really nothing changed since I initially rolled Jan 31 put to Jan 34... With that rolling, and averaging in price right now, I moved my B/E points to bellow $33 on put side, and above $44 on call side. Also, that is a pretty good damn credit for something with only 17 DTE, on a $39-ish stock.

I have been thinking about that for some time, and than yesterday I saw this:
Attached Image

I have a big respect for this woman, she is rarely wrong, and obviously wants to exploit high IVR.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,453
  • Dec 30, 2014 10:25am Dec 30, 2014 10:25am
Hey TF, I don't know if you watched this video >> Legging A Trade <<

Some interesting points there.

Tom explains situation when you can't get a fill at midpoint - orders are on different exchanges... bid from one, ask from another. I never thought of that, but that's it - simple.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,454
  • Dec 30, 2014 11:54pm Dec 30, 2014 11:54pm
It pays to scan the hi volume stats regularly, sometimes you find big trades in thinly-traded options lead to some interesting opps...like this one in UUP
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-30_hivol.png Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-30_jun.png Size: 27 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,455
  • Dec 30, 2014 11:56pm Dec 30, 2014 11:56pm
a risk-free $bullish trade...if you could get filled at the mid....if it sounds too good to be true, probably is....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-30_uupvert.png Size: 51 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,456
  • Dec 31, 2014 12:20am Dec 31, 2014 12:20am
UUP Mar/Jun $26 call calendar not too shabby, either - $0.05 risk pays $0.35+ if you hit the jackpot...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-30_uupcal.png Size: 56 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,457
  • Dec 31, 2014 12:36am Dec 31, 2014 12:36am
more $bull
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-12-30_uup2.png Size: 54 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,458
  • Dec 31, 2014 1:24am Dec 31, 2014 1:24am
Hey, Cecil Gee - how've you been mate?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,459
  • Dec 31, 2014 7:53am Dec 31, 2014 7:53am
Quoting The Fool
Hey, Cecil Gee - how've you been mate?
I'm good thanks hope you are too

NEAR opening taking a long put on SPY $207 if I can get it for under 10c for Friday expiry also may consider $204 put for Jan monthly 2015 expiry. Have a great new years celebration
  • #6,460
  • Dec 31, 2014 9:19am Dec 31, 2014 9:19am
I like Eric Parnell, he writes very good articles with good charts. He has that bearish stance - after all, after 6 years of bull market, QE ending and all... but the punchline is that he expects volatility in 2015.

From his latest article 2015 Outlook: Pain

.... "As a result, the stock market is now on its own. But this does not mean that the Fed won't lend a completely hollow hand when needed. Anyone trading on the short side of the U.S. stock market in the coming year should fully expect that a member of the Federal Reserve will come out jawboning about a new QE stimulus program the moment the stock market finds itself down by -7% or more within a two month period. Such has been the pattern of the Fed in the past, and the market has traditionally responded well to such promises. This, after all, is what St. Louis Fed President James Bullard did in mid-October, and the markets absolutely loved it and started to rally sharply off of the bottom. Fully understanding the power of the jawbone having watched ECB President Mario Draghi successfully pull off the trick for years, the Fed is likely to go to this well on any sustained pullbacks in 2015. And it will likely take at least a year before the U.S. stock market starts to get wise to the fact that no stimulus will actually be coming.

Instead, the Fed wants to raise interest rates and is clearly itching to do so no matter how much they talk about "patience" in the process. The first rate increase could come as early as April 30. And if the economy and the stock market continue to perform as they are right now, I would fully expect it to come at that time. However, if the global economy and markets start to wobble, then June 18, July 30 or September 17 are also possibilities. But for now, investors should be prepared for April. Whether the Fed can continue to raise interest rates further off of the zero bound after its first rate hike remains to be seen."

Love this:
Pain means volatility. Pain means unexpected and sometimes sharp punches in the face to the downside followed by equally swift counter punch rallies to the upside. New highs may be set along the way. And critical upward sloping support lines are also likely to be shredded to the downside in the process.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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