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Martingaling - Looks so good until the inevitable

  • #361
  • Dec 29, 2014 2:08am Dec 29, 2014 2:08am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} LOL. You are doing good at what you do. Bounce Playing is not in your nature, I think.
Quite the contrary, Chicks...

I just look at things a lot differently.

Oversold in a long cycle and overbought in a short cycle, is more of what I look for in Bounce Plays.

Guessing absolutes on reversals can be a very expensive game a provide a lot of missed opportunities.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #362
  • Dec 29, 2014 8:05am Dec 29, 2014 8:05am
I am amazed at how a thread gets longer in pages, for some unexplained reason every post seems to get further and further away from what the topic is. So to back on track, martingale is simply money management. The only way to use martingale is to have a loss correct? So why not look at what caused the loss. What system are you using, what are the probabilities that next trade will result in a win. Typically how many losses does your system incur before pulling back to the win column.The key to martingale is the loss, in relation to the system which is used along side it. If we can look at that information, which of course would be different from every trader, then we can tell if martingale is suitable or not for that system.
  • #363
  • Dec 29, 2014 8:18am Dec 29, 2014 8:18am
I'm using martingale too but in the short term less than 24 hours,why? Because every strategy need a stoploss number! For me is 10% of my account, you will wipe your account if you go down with it. It's simply because you will be loosed and a smart guy will keep that's certainly loose small! Only stupid will go down with market and hope it reverses
  • #364
  • Dec 29, 2014 8:29am Dec 29, 2014 8:29am
Quoting Abcxyz77
I'm using martingale too but in the short term less than 24 hours,why? Because every strategy need a stoploss number! For me is 10% of my account, you will wipe your account if you go down with it. It's simply because you will be loosed and a smart guy will keep that's certainly loose small! Only stupid will go down with market and hope it reverses
I think using the word ¨Stupid¨to describe the type of trader you are referring to is rather harsh. Why not use the word ¨Bias¨. You have also brought up the interesting topic of losing a certain % of your account. Yet, if losing 10% of your account is a loss of 1200 pips, compared to 200 pips, would it they be fair to say that you should not HOLD that position for a 1200 pip loss compared to that of 200 pips, assuming that both respectively is 10% of your account. I however would agree that one should use a stop loss, and if you don´t then eventually you will come to a point where you will tank your account as the bounce may never come. Yet, you should also maintain a very clear few of your system 100% of the times, because 99.99% of the times isn´t enough as that .01% can be the position which leads to margin call.
  • #365
  • Dec 29, 2014 9:06am Dec 29, 2014 9:06am
Quoting KmBioDmoneda
I am amazed at how a thread gets longer in pages, for some unexplained reason every post seems to get further and further away from what the topic is. So to back on track, martingale is simply money management. The only way to use martingale is to have a loss correct? So why not look at what caused the loss. What system are you using, what are the probabilities that next trade will result in a win. Typically how many losses does your system incur before pulling back to the win column.The key to martingale is the loss, in relation to the system which...

I like where you are going with this...

Please feel free to continue.

As a matter of point, I am currently testing both live and demo a version of a couple variations of a martingale system. These are based on what Chicky calls, Bounce Plays, I have aptly named them DEAD CAT as in the dead cat bounces.

The logic employed is based on, too as previously stated, buying oversold on long trends and selling overbought in short trends.

See my public stats: HERE && HERE, written as derivatives of the base code trader, HERE.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #366
  • Dec 29, 2014 9:24am Dec 29, 2014 9:24am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I like where you are going with this... Please feel free to continue. As a matter of point, I am currently testing both live and demo a version of a couple variations of a martingale system. These are based on what Chicky calls, Bounce Plays, I have aptly named them DEAD CAT as in the dead cat bounces. The logic employed is based on, too as previously stated, buying oversold on long trends and selling overbought in short trends. See my public stats: HERE && HERE,...
Impressive records... keep it up..
  • #367
  • Dec 29, 2014 9:55am Dec 29, 2014 9:55am
Quoting Holypendant
{quote} Impressive records... keep it up..
Dead Cat on Fire has been re-branded and shared publicly as "Merry Christmas 2014".

Was originally testing on a few pairs without a martingale double that didn't do so well in the beginning. Have narrowed down and doubled down and it seems to be running a lot smoother.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #368
  • Dec 29, 2014 10:36am Dec 29, 2014 10:36am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I like where you are going with this... Please feel free to continue. As a matter of point, I am currently testing both live and demo a version of a couple variations of a martingale system. These are based on what Chicky calls, Bounce Plays, I have aptly named them DEAD CAT as in the dead cat bounces. The logic employed is based on, too as previously stated, buying oversold on long trends and selling overbought in short trends. See my public stats: HERE && HERE,...
You results look good, but the drawdown are a little too high dont you think ??
Daily progress produces consistent growth
  • #369
  • Dec 29, 2014 11:39am Dec 29, 2014 11:39am
Quoting Daimari
{quote} You results look good, but the drawdown are a little too high dont you think ??
Nope.

Look at the account start sizes and ask yourself, what is the amount you would be willing to risk on an EXTREMELY dangerous Martingale type system?

If the number you have come up with is lower than what these have started at, then don't bother running anything live as you are just handing over cash to your broker.

From these amounts, you can define risk tolerance by the account start, the number of pairs and the overall pair selection.

The fact that we have been able to get Martingales to run successfully over a few months of time without busting these smaller accounts, is testimony to the possibilities.

Perfection??

Hell no, but certainly something that I will attach to an account and allow them to churn a couple of bucks.

The accounts that I run are hobbies for me. I started off with a couple grand in play and now run several robots on just the profits alone. Question has always been, what if they blow up...answer remains, I don't care. They aren't a part of what I rely on for my monthly income and as long as they don't actually cost me anything, (having already withdrawn my original capital), they can make and lose without much cause for worry.

Everything in forex is a matter of perspective...I don't suggest you follow anybody on this road, but find what you deem safe and reasonable.

This is mine, and for what I do, works out fine.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #370
  • Dec 29, 2014 1:23pm Dec 29, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} When to cut-loss 1: If you carefully check 1.2152 on a eur/usd daily or weekly chart. It is an important level. I place a pending long there with few pips stop loss let's say 10 pips. When to take profit 1: My Take Profit in this case would be 12 pips, that is, at 1.2164 When to cut-loss 2: If you carefully check 1.2152 on a eur/usd daily or weekly chart. It is an important level. I place a Market Long Order now at the price of 1.2190 my sl would be few pips below 1,2152, let's say 1.2142. That will be a 48 pip stop loss....
Quoting Magix
If you are waiting for a pending long, why not directionally play short to the 2152, and then wait for signs of reversal? On both a daily and weekly chart, I see absolutely no significance in your level...

Well, Chicks....

The market has proven that when you set a 48 pip stop loss that 50 pips is in order...

When of course a directional playing, as I previously suggested, would have netted you profit on the trade.

Quoting Magix
and also see the same flaw in your logic as do with what you would typically find in most systems that catch falling knives or stand in the front of speeding trains...
Missed opportunity and a lost trade based on Catching another Falling knife.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #371
  • Dec 29, 2014 2:19pm Dec 29, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} {quote} Well, Chicks.... The market has proven that when you set a 48 pip stop loss that 50 pips is in order... When of course a directional playing, as I previously suggested, would have netted you profit on the trade. {quote} Missed opportunity and a lost trade based on Catching another Falling knife.
You asked a question, I replied with not one but 2 examples. Why are you trying to force your believes on me. I don't need them.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #372
  • Dec 29, 2014 2:24pm Dec 29, 2014 2:24pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} You asked a question, I replied with not one but 2 examples. Why are you trying to force your believes on me. I don't need them.
Here is the trade. 1.2142 sl would still have survived had it not hit the TP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #373
  • Dec 29, 2014 2:30pm Dec 29, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} You asked a question, I replied with not one but 2 examples. Why are you trying to force your believes on me. I don't need them.
Temper Temper, Chicks...

I asked a question and you replied with a smart ass comment.

Quoting Chicky
{quote} LOL. You are doing good at what you do. Bounce Playing is not in your nature, I think.
Don't need to get all hostile with me because you come up looking like a moron.

Really dude, you called the level, almost to the nut, you just aren't playing market direction.

Question still remains, why not play in the direction of the Main Trend?
&&
I guess Bounce Playing is not much in your nature, huh??
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #374
  • Dec 29, 2014 2:32pm Dec 29, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Here is the trade. 1.2142 sl would still have survived had it not hit the TP. {image}

This is a hindsight example, Chicks...

You posted on this last night...not at closing bell last week.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #375
  • Dec 29, 2014 2:46pm Dec 29, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} This is a hindsight example, Chicks... You posted on this last night...not at closing bell last week.
This shit is on my explorer ever-since I opened it. Also a post on this trade in my journal admitting that it is not a very good trade.
.............. and, I am a trader not god. I could be wrong many times, but have a system, a very logical and profitable system.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #376
  • Dec 29, 2014 3:27pm Dec 29, 2014 3:27pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This shit is on my explorer ever-since I opened it. Also a post on this trade in my journal admitting that it is not a very good trade. .............. and, I am a trader not god. I could be wrong many times, but have a system, a very logical and profitable system.
No, actually you will find it time stamped in your post.

14 hours ago, when you said if you would have taken a long, then....

And where your stop loss would be.

Not sure if you are playing without spread or where your daily low is...but, well...you know...

Anyways dude...I'm still not sure what has got you knickers in a knot. Wasn't me trying to force you into anything other than asking the same question....

If you know where price is going, why not play profitably to that point instead of guessing it as a market trend turn?

But, whatever...keep being all pissy n stuff...got nothing to do with the thread anyways.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #377
  • Dec 29, 2014 9:16pm Dec 29, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting Chicky
I could be wrong many times, but have a system, a very logical and profitable system.
So, Chicks....

Where's the next buy line?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #378
  • Edited Dec 30, 2014 5:54pm Dec 29, 2014 9:45pm | Edited Dec 30, 2014 5:54pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} So, Chicks.... Where's the next buy line?
1.2120, few pips above would be better. I have entered at 1.2134 with sl at 1.2100. This move below 1.2152 is a market noise. In few hours it will be above 1.2180 and then will make an attempt at 1.2227. I have left my TP open.
I think this is enough to explain how bounces work. You are right most of the time in this kind of trading but never know how big the bounce would be. One more thing, there are thousand, maybe more different ways to trade. I someone thinks that only his or her method is right is a moron. A moron is a person may or may not be stupid, but perceived as such.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #379
  • Dec 29, 2014 9:51pm Dec 29, 2014 9:51pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} No, actually you will find it time stamped in your post. 14 hours ago, when you said if you would have taken a long, then.... And where your stop loss would be. Not sure if you are playing without spread or where your daily low is...but, well...you know... Anyways dude...I'm still not sure what has got you knickers in a knot. Wasn't me trying to force you into anything other than asking the same question.... If you know where price is going, why not play profitably to that point instead of guessing it as a market trend turn? But, whatever...keep...
Magix, why are you after my ass? That is a bloody example how you set your stop losses and take profit, a question you asked when pa was at 1.2190 and I used that level for this example.

This tells me one thing. You are bloody insane and destroying someone's thread, ........................like you always do.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #380
  • Dec 29, 2014 10:47pm Dec 29, 2014 10:47pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Magix, why are you after my ass? That is a bloody example how you set your stop losses and take profit, a question you asked when pa was at 1.2190 and I used that level for this example. This tells me one thing. You are bloody insane and destroying someone's thread, ........................like you always do.


Testing a theory is all, Chicks.

Will get back to you.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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